Astros’ perspective just past the halfway point

Just passed the halfway post the Houston Astros are 48-36, desperately clinging to a three-game lead in the division and wobbling after a series of injuries to the everydays, the bullpen and the rotation culminating in the loss of George Springer, their heart, soul and dance instructor. They are currently on a pace for 92 and a fraction wins and there are probably very few fans who would not take that number right now vs. what results they expect in the second half of the season.

If they finished 92-70 they will have pulled off a wonderful 22-game improvement over 2014 (70-92) and an even more impressive 41 game improvement over 2013 (51-111). But historically what will that likely mean for the pursuit of a playoff spot in the very competitive American League and specifically the AL West division?

Be forewarned that historical stats are not necessarily predictors of future performance (blah, blah for investors) and your mileage may vary, etc. But looking back over the last ten seasons, here is what 92 wins would have bought the Astros.

  • Between 2005 and 2014, 92 wins would have won the AL West only once out of ten times. The Rangers during their first run to the World Series won the West in 2011 with only 90 wins.
  • During the same time frame, 92 wins would have been good for one of the two wild card spots eight of those ten seasons. Double note here: First, before 2012 there was only one wild card, so this is based on the record of the team that would have been the second wild card in those earlier seasons. Second, the Tampa Rays were the second wild card with 92 wins in 2013, but only had 92 wins because they won a playoff game against the Rangers to make it into those playoffs.
  • 90 wins would have gotten the Astros into the playoffs about 70% of the time. 88 wins would have been good 30% of the time.

The bottom line is that if the Astros win at their current pace, they will likely only make the playoffs as a wild card team. If they play .500 the rest of the way they have a 20% or less chance of making the playoffs as the second wild card.

Now, before getting depressed by all of this, remember:

  • In 2014, the Astros were 10 games back in the division by May 9th (36th game of the season) and after 84 games they were 36-48 and 16 games back.
  • In 2013, the Astros were 10.5 games back by May 3rd (30th game of the season) and after 84 games they were 30-54 and 19 games back.
  • In 2012, the Astros were 10.5 games back by June 16th (65th game of the season) and after 84 games they were 32-52 and 14.5 games back.

The point being that even though there is potential heart ache this season at least the team is in full contention and playing very important games in the month of July, rather than falling off the radar in May and June in previous seasons.

Based on what you see above, do you believe:

  • The Astros should make trades to give them a better chance to make the playoffs this season?
  • Stand pat and not hurt their future for an uncertain present?
  • Dip lightly in the trade game to pick up a piece to bridge through the injuries?
  • Trade off pieces by the trade deadline (Feldman, Carter, Rasmus, Qualls, etc) who will not be part of the future?
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110 responses to “Astros’ perspective just past the halfway point”

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  1. Great article Dan P. I wonder what direction Luhnow and company are going to go. I could see them doing any of the 4 options or a combination of them. Personally I think I’d like to see what we could get for the pieces that you mentioned in option 4. That way we continue to have a lot of options coming up through the pipeline. Over the next few weeks it will be interesting to see how they play. I was impressed with the way that they continued to fight back during the Friday night game and the game yesterday. It’s definitely a great time to be an Astros fan!

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  2. I think they should do #1 and #4.
    Make up their minds. Keep Carter or Gattis, not both.
    Keep Rasmus or Tucker, not both.
    Keep McCullers. Choose between Hader, Appel, Velasquez, Musgrove and Feliz and get the most you can for one of them and keep the rest. Keep Feldman unless somebody makes an offer you can”t refuse, and they won’t. Keep both catchers for the rest of the year and then decide what to do about them in the offseason.
    Move some AAA excess.
    Get a MOR pitcher.

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  3. Robert – yes it is such a breath of fresh air to have a team that is actually fun to watch and more importantly is relevant.
    Old pro – speaking of getting rid of excess at the AAA level – why did they sell Lambson to the Braves? Why not package him? How much could they sell him for anyway?

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    • Lambson was going to be rule V eligible and wasn’t in the plans because of his stuff. 87MPH fastball is not major league bullpen material. Get what you can when you can!

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  4. So Cleveland hits a ball just inside the right field line and it hits the ball boys chair that he did not move and it allows a run to score and the batter to get a triple. Why isn’t that a ground rule double?

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  5. I think you don’t waste a chance to get into the playoffs. Because once you’re in, anything can happen.

    I’d trade from our farm depth and leave the MLB product alone. I saw a proposed deal of Brett Phillips and Nolan Fontana for Scott Kazmir. I’d hate to lose Phillips, but Kazmir might be worth it.

    On another note, I was watching the Indian’s TV feed for an inning. Wow. Just bad. Lots of dead air. No homework on the Astros. I’ll never complain about Houston’s announcers again.

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    • Fontana would be a Moneyball kind of player, but surprised they would not be wanting a young pitcher in the deal for Kazmir.

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    • I got close enough to Houston this week-end to catch a couple innings of (I guess) the Astros radio team. It sounded like it was coming from the Mayo Clinic Narcolepsy Wing. Just turned them off. Maybe they wanted the week-end off for the holiday. (Again, just listened to a couple innings of a snoozer game. (Pun intended))

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      • Having listened to them a lot – Robert Ford, the lead announcer is good, solid and kind of in the Gene Elston school of non-hype. Steve Sparks I am getting used to but not a big fan.

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  7. Depends who you’re thinking of trading on the farm. I could live with a Hader and fontana…
    But no to including Phillips. We may have to lose Feliz as well, but no to letting some team
    Raid our farm so no thank you. I agree with op
    About keeping gattis. And trading Carter. I don’t think Nottingham will be ready to jump
    To the majors but clearly hank conger is not the answer. Of all the pitchers we’ve been hashing about…I’d rather try to trade for kazmir. We might be able to keep him for one more year without breaking the bank. Cuero and hamels will cost *big* bucks to keep them beyond this this year. Ok I’m done!!

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    • agrred dave. i think this is the first time wear and tear and fatigue has taken hold this year. hopefully we’ll make it through this road trip and then get everybody rested during the break. wouldn’t hurt if we got a starting pitcher to eat innings and help down the stretch.

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  9. I’m not liking Thatcher loading the bases with a 6 run lead – especially including 2 walks. Someone was talking on this blog the other day about how the pen has really been walking a lot more batters lately.

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  11. Everytime I think this team will implode or fall apart they play loose and win a game they need. Dang they can be fun to watch.,

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  12. The guys you mentioned as trade bait have little or no value for a contender either because of their performance, contracts or both. Since we’re a contender why would another contender be excited about our cast offs? OTOH, trading those guys for prospects clears 40 man space and keeps the pipeline primed and all are replaceable by our own kids. I’m not sure there is anyone out there worth jettisoning some of our own best prospects with the possible exception of Kazmir if we had some assurance that he would sign an extension. Besides his experience of playing in a World Series and for contending teams he is a high character guy. My youngest son played with him in high school at Cy Falls and kept in touch with him even in the lean Skeeters days. Last year and this year Scott got uniforms and equipment from his corporate sponsor for my grandsons’ teams. A real class act all around.

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    • The guys I was listing were guys I thought we would most likely use to get prospects unless you packaged them with a youngster.
      Kazmir sounds like the type of person who would fit in great here.

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    • That’s why he’s the only guy I would trade for.
      He won’t cost that much and we could probably get him to stay another year for
      $10-15 million. We would have to give up a couple of guys but that wouldn’t raid our farm. My opinion only…

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  13. Tyler White is going to command some attention by us or some other club. He is hitting .550 at AAA after last night’s game.

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  14. Chris Carter continues his torrid “no hitting” spree. 3 K’s last night. Singleton gets a chance and makes the least of it. Looks to be another AAAA player. Maybe Lowrie is destined for 1st base when he returns. Got to get his bat into the line up.
    Good night for Margo. I don’t believe we should be looking to trade him. Too versatile and when he has these spot starts he seems to play much better than as an everyday player.
    As pointed out a little concern over the BP although they were OK last night. Thatcher did walk two though leading to a run.
    If not to expensive, I’d go after Kazmir. When he pitches we could play “Kashmir” by Led Zeppelin.

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    • I agree with the idea of moving Lowrie to first base when he returns. I had mentioned in an earlier thread that I recalled Dennis Menke moving from shortstop to first base back in the 70’s for the Astros and that worked out well. This type of move would greatly upgrade that position for the club… higher batting average, more power, more RBIs.

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    • In the first inning, when Carter flied out to right center, it looked like he hopped/celebrated/bat flipped like he was happy with the outcome. I think it got the run home, but it just looked odd to me. Then again, I was watching the condensced replay this AM over breakfast which loses some context.

      I think Singleton is beating himself at the plate. You can see when the pitcher makes one good pitch the momentum switches and it just feels like he is unlikely to swing it back in his favor. Something a lot of these guys can’t do is spoil pitches. I actually get excited when certain guys – Gattis, Rasmus, Castro, etc. don’t miss a bad pitch to hit but rather foul it off. It doesn’t happen enough.

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  15. Carter is not coming around at all. He has only one game in the last 20 where he has not struck out. He at least plays decent 1st base, made a great play on a ball that hit off 1st base last night. But too many bats are big zeroes. Not even a foul ball as Devin states. Yeah I would take Lowrie in his place.

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    • CCs at bats are indeed painful to watch, and it has been that way a long time now. I was way past ready to give up on him earlier in the year. But Singleton is no better [maybe a little worse] and Marwin proved he could neither hit consistently as a starter or be counted on to play a trustworthy first base defensively. Our current management apparently still believes in CC, so it doesn’t matter how painful his at bats are – he’s our guy. At least his ugly at bats are less painful when everybody else on the team is actually hitting, as happened last night.

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    • The last week or so has been painful.

      He needs to quit being so passive. I love the 13+ percent walk rate, that’s a great number, but this watching strike after strike is stupid bad. I just don’t know if getting more aggressive will cause him to chase even more bad pitches, strike out more, and lower his BABIP even more.

      Still his production is better than most anything else we would put there, maybe besides Singleton. I don’t know if management “loves” the guy, he has been in trade rumors in the past, but they may feel like they are stuck with the guy. Gonzalez? No thank you. Great bench guy, but a bench guy. It seems a waste for both the Astros and Jed Lowrie’s talents to have him on first base. Lowries return may put the Astros in decision mode though given the 3 first base/DH types they currently carry. You can only have 4 guys on the bench at a time, one is definitely going to be your other catcher, one has to be able to play the infield, and one the OF. Singleton/Gattis/Carter makes you think Lowrie’s return has to be the end for one of them.

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      • Could it be the end for MarGo? I don’t know, but it is a possibility. I am as frustrated as everyone with Carter’s at bats, but if I have a choice of keeping CC or MarGo I am keeping CC. Players like MarGo are easily replaceable. As frustrating as Carter is you can’t find 30 HR power as easily.

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  16. Yes, we strike out a lot, but we also score a lot of runs. This is the team we have and it is in first place in our division and has the second best record in the AL.
    It is the team we built for 2015 and I am content to see what happens.
    I don’t think it is the right thing to do to restructure the team in the middle of the season when it is a first place club.
    The thing to do is not panic. Springer will be back, Lowrie will be back, and Feldman will be back. It’s ok to shop and listen, but we should not try to remake a contender when it is going good. Oakland had the best record in baseball last season and made a trade that blew up their year and has them in last place this year. We don’t need to do that. We can afford to trade a guy or two on this team to get a pitcher, but I don’t think we should mess with a lot until the offseason, when players are looking for money. Right now the players are looking for wins and finding them.
    Ten days ago Texas was 1.5 games out and now they are 6.5 out. There is ebb and flow in our division, but right now there is one team that rules and that is Houston. Let’s not panic. Like Keuchel said: I don’t think we’ve played that great yet.

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  17. 1. Yes, be open to any and all but probably only a lower level type trade can be made without damaging the future. 2. Yes to #1 makes it No to #2 (no silly giggles please). 3. Probably not realistic. The other GMs know you are hurting and many of them are also. 4. I think those will be done in the off season (if possible). Unless you can get equal or better value, you diminish your chances right now. To trade a starter for a couple prospects might be great in 2017 and on, but you could easily cause yourself to end up out of the running. But I am will be surprised if any of these are on the ST roster in 2016. A couple guys are starting to slowly heat up. It is still a team sport. I can live with the results of this team because I don’t see any great options in the minors.

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  18. Loving this season (and surprise, no peep from bopert), but I gotta get two things off my chest…

    Chris Carter has to be one of the most lackadaisical, could not give a ***t, sorry excuse for a baseball player I’ve ever seen.This is why he strikes out so much, why he’ll never bat more than .220 again, why he’s a big gaping black hole in the lineup. I’ve seen more emotion out of cadavers. I’m over him.

    Oh, and I’ve been meaning to say this for a while, but for all of those who were saying that Castro was going to have a turnaround year…I told you so. BA is lower than last year, OBP and SLG are about the same. Thank god his defense is better. That said, I’d rather have him than Conger….that says a lot.

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    • I think Carter has struck out too much. But I think he would have fallen apart on defense and in the other areas of his game, like making pitchers work, if he did not have the easy going temperament. He still homers and drives in runs and scares pitchers to death. That said, with Singleton and Gattis on the team I would entertain offers for Carter, especially if Lowrie returns healthy after the ASB.
      As for the catching, Fangraphs has Castro as the #5 catcher Defensively in the majors. Batting average-wise the Astros catchers are middle of the pack in the AL and 20th in the majors. They have one of the highest OPS of any team’s catchers in the AL. Catcher is not hurting us at all in comparison to the other major league catchers. If you want to talk about pitching performance of the Astros entire pitching staff, you have to talk about the way the Astros’ catchers have called the pitches and carried out the team’s game plan and agree that it has been superb. One of the things I noticed in spring training is that Tyler Heineman was not a major league defensive catcher, yet. His defense needed tons of work and hopefully he is getting that this season. He can throw, but did not look good handling the catching duties and nuances of blocking.

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  19. * The Astros should make trades to give them a better chance to make the playoffs this season? *

    I certainly hope trades are not made for the sake of fan nervousness. No trades come with guarantees, and seldom do mid-season trades really result in a substantial improvement. A lot of times the player you traded for has trouble adjusting to a new team and a new manager, or gets injured. And even if he does well, is the only important result [winning more serieses down the stretch] going to significantly change by virtue of that player’s presence?

    That is why teams like the 2015 Astros that are [a] already winning at a far better than expected clip with what they have in house, and [b] loaded with almost ready talent in the minors at virtually every position, really do not have to be in a big hurry to trade for anybody. Teams like ours can be choosers, not beggars. If a deal is presented that does not seem way too good to pass up, I say pass. Let it ride.

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  20. Here is what I don’t know Mr. Bill and the answer to it might affect which direction the front office goes. Is there an inning limit on LMJ and VV this season and what is it. If this team has to shut these guys down some time in August, then it makes sense to me to pick up another pitcher, because the one position that is a question mark as far as immediate help goes is starting pitching.

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    • Other issues in that regard are 1. whether Feldman can come back, stay healthy, and actually reduce his ERA and WHIP to a respectable #3 or #4 starter’s level; 2. whether Obie is too deep in the dungeon under the doghouse to climb back out, and 3. whether either Appel or Devenski can get in a groove that would encourage the F.O. to call one or both up to take some of the innings load at the back of the rotation.

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  21. CC out of the lineup today.

    2B Altuve
    RF Tucker
    SS Correa
    DH Gattis
    CF Rasmus
    C Conger
    3B Gonzalez (Valbuena hurt his toe)
    1B Singleton
    LF Presley
    VV on the mound

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  23. Velasquez is snake bit. I feel for the guy, at least the bullpen didn’t do any damage. This kid has the potential to be a very, very good pitcher.

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  24. He got sent back to Corpus tonight, to get rest. He won’t pitch again (if I heard right)
    until after the break. They called Oberholtzer back up to start Thursday. I really do think Velasquez and McCullars are going to stick. Luhnow may go to a six man rotation to give them both an extra day off…….but the kids can pitch.

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  27. Velasquez sent to Corpus but won’t pitch until after ASB. Ober to start in Cleveland on Thursday.
    Astros signed 11th round pick Sandoval to a deal. A guy no one thought could be signed. Astros will pay the overslot penalty but won’t lose a draft pick. Brilliant Draft for the Houston Astros!

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    • Yes indeed!! The kid is right outta high school and has a devastating curve ball. He throws 92-94 mph. But has some control problems. He’ll fit right in with this club…the pitching coaches all up the minor systems are great!! Op…If a.j. Reed is not moved up after the break some thing is very wrong in corpus. I told you guys at the beginning of the season to watch out for this kid!! He’ll get a long look next year in spring ttaining. He’s *awesome*!

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      • Becky, my wife cooks a fabulous roast. She cooks it for four hours in a pot on the stove and the aroma that fills the house is incredible and irresistible at the same time. But over the many years we have been married I have learned that her genius doesn’t work if that roast is rushed.
        I see AJ Reed the same way. He is following the exact same path that Springer, and then Tucker followed to the majors. That is 500 plate appearances in Lancaster and 500 plate appearances at CC and then we check the roast and see how much longer it needs to cook in AAA or if it’s done.
        Through 68 games in Lancaster Reed is ahead of Springer’s hitting development in almost every area. More homers and doubles and walks, less strikeouts, higher BA, higher OBP, higher SLG and higher OPS, of course. Reed has two less PAs than Springer had at the 68 game mark and they want to see if he maintains his lofty levels and he can cook at the same rate as Springer did.
        The aroma drives you crazy, but the roast will just melt in your mouth if you let it cook long enough.

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  28. We know Preston Tucker is not anywhere near the athlete that George Springer is, but man have I been spoiled watching Springer catch all those balls that go over Tucker’s head or land in front of him. Not fair to Preston, but losing George really really hurts this team in every way imaginable.

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    • sydboone, at some point in the future, the experts will be calling Springer one of the top outfielders in the game, center, right, will not matter. I don’t care what defensive metrics say. From what I see, he’s already one of the best.

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  29. Dare I say something nice about Jim Crane? It is fair to criticize the amount he spends at the mlb level. But he has been fully supportive of money spent on the draft including the overslot penalty this year. He gets it – this is money well spent. Drayton never got it.

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    • And, the Astros begin construction in West Palm beach on their new Spring training complex, which better be ready for 2017.

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  30. In February 2014 Brett Phillips not only wasn’t on Baseball America’s Top 100 list, he wasn’t even on their radar! As an example, Correa was #7 on that list.
    Today, Phillips is #21 on Baseball America’s top 50 midseason 2015 List of Prospects. #21 in all of the minors. Huge jump! Huge!

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    • Op…I make a good roast too, and I like mine a nice shade of pink in the middle. What I was referring to with a.j. Reed is he might not be ready next year, but when he is…*look out*!!!
      That kid is built like Mike trout and I’m drooling at the thought he and Chris Devenski will be a big part of this team sometime next year!!!

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  31. 5 games to go before the All Star break. 2.5 game lead on the Angels. It sure would be nice to finish strong and extend that lead rather than limp into the break…

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    • Just looking at the Indian rotation. No pushovers in that five. I expect them to have a better second half. Stealing a win tonight with Straily on the mound would be a happy thing.

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  32. I agree Devin – along with being 2.5 games ahead of the Angels, the Astros are only 1 game up in the loss column.
    It may be kind of tough out on the road to get on a roll, but they have done it before this season.

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  33. I know he’s only had 25 at bats since coming up this time, but I’m more and more convinced that Singleton will not be our guy. Does not concern me though because we’ve got a batch of guys in the system as first base candidates, a couple that are outfielders today, who will help us forget Singleton before long. In the meantime, at least for now, I think we have to stick with Carter and hope he stumbles into one of his grooves.

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    • At this time, it appears that Jon has a huge swing that scares AAA pitchers and doesn’t scare major league pitchers.

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  34. I was taking a walk this morning, tripped over a curb, hit my head and am at the emergency room. I am sure an Xray of my head would show nothing.
    Isn’t it weird that we can get great offensive players at 2B and SS and struggle with 1B?

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    • So, here we have a 23 year old LH 1B who has minor league career slash line of .279/.387/.477/.864 with a K rate of 22% and a BB rate of 15% and a career fielding % of .989 at 1B. 4.3% of his minor league ABs result in a HR.
      Then you have a 24 year old RH 1B who has a minor league career slash line of .303/.412/.475/.887 with a K rate of 12.6% and BB rate of 13.2% and a career fielding % of .994 at 1B. 3.3% of his minor league ABs result in a HR.
      There you have a comparison of Jon Singleton and Tyler White.

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  35. take care dan. i had an MRI of my head and they found nothing, so you’re not alone. maybe it’ll knock some sense into you. didn’t work for me

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  36. Jeez Dan, I too hope that when they check out your noggin, they indeed find nothing. Did you really take a tumble? If so, be well, and don’t worry about first base. We’ll have someone for that spot, if not in 2015, soon after.

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  37. Monday, SS Jack Mayfield gets promoted to Corpus Christi and plays his first game Tuesday night. He hits four singles in four times at bat and is batting ahead of Conrad Gregor in the lineup. Gregor goes popup, GIDP, strikeout, and GIDP. CC loses 1-0.

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    • William H Macy starred in this movie called the Cooler, where he is such bad luck and his luck rubs off that he is pulled in to cool off lucky high rollers
      Chris Cooler Carter? Conrad the Cooler?

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  38. Appel gets another start for Fresno tonight. He will square off against Sacramento righthander Chris Stratton who has been . . . well, let’s just say he has been a WHOLE lot better than Appel in his short stint in AAA. Stratton’s ERA in AAA is 1.53 and his WHIP is 1.02. Appel’s numbers so far in AAA have been – well, just a tad HIGHER.

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  39. Chris Carter is one of the worst hitters in baseball. He leads the majors in strikeouts, he is #162 out of the 165 players who qualify for the Batting Average Championship, and he is only #106 in SLG out of 165 for those who want to argue about him being a slugger.
    I am of the opinion we don’t have anyone ready, currently, but when Lowrie comes back I am for sending Carter to Disneyland-Paris in a trade for a French Security Guard.

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    • OP1, don’t you know that CC is just an unfortunate victim of small sample size. Heck, he’ll probably break into that big smile and home run trot any day now.

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      • The Karma from praising Crane could be the reason you hit your head. I’m just saying.
        I guess you’re alright?

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      • praise crane??? did you hit your head or something????? kidding!! i think you can praise both. i think both have had a few glitches, especially crane early on, but if you look at the farm system, the draft and the results so far on the field, there is way more to praise than bitch.

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  42. To clarify a little – it was not a real curb – it was the concrete “bumper” that you park your car against. I will blame my darned bifocals that don’t let me see downward to my feet as well as the old days. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it….

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  44. Luhnow was out in California to watch the jet hawks play this week. I’m sure he’s looking at who will, or will not move up. There will be more movement in every minor league level at the end of the break. And…we will be losing a few more guys whether it’s through trades or just out righting them off the rosters. Jane Hanson will have the updates on any of these moves on her blog. Come on you rubes let’s get with the program and Winn some games!
    The angels on hot on our trail!! #gottawintherestoftheway!

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  45. The lineup tonight is
    Altuve 2B
    Tucker RF
    Correa SS
    Gattis DH
    Rasmus LF
    Carter 1B
    Gonzalez 3B
    Castro C
    Marisnick CF

    With Straily on the mound

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  46. Wow Gattis drills. 2 run dinger licking up Correa who struck out with Altuve on 3rd.
    I have never seen a batter catch up with fatballs out of the strike zone like Evan does.

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    • Our bullpen is beginning to leak oil *fast*. Don’t forget a guy in fresno named James hoyt. Might keep an eye on the farm. Thatcher has been walking a tight rope as well as Tony sipp. Gulp…things are getting testy.

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    • You can’t blame it all on the bullpen…the rest of the team did nothing after the 1st. Inning but yeah, Thatcher dug the hole tonight.

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