All Things Astros and a whole lot more
Just passed the halfway post the Houston Astros are 48-36, desperately clinging to a three-game lead in the division and wobbling after a series of injuries to the everydays, the bullpen and the rotation culminating in the loss of George Springer, their heart, soul and dance instructor. They are currently on a pace for 92 and a fraction wins and there are probably very few fans who would not take that number right now vs. what results they expect in the second half of the season.
If they finished 92-70 they will have pulled off a wonderful 22-game improvement over 2014 (70-92) and an even more impressive 41 game improvement over 2013 (51-111). But historically what will that likely mean for the pursuit of a playoff spot in the very competitive American League and specifically the AL West division?
Be forewarned that historical stats are not necessarily predictors of future performance (blah, blah for investors) and your mileage may vary, etc. But looking back over the last ten seasons, here is what 92 wins would have bought the Astros.
The bottom line is that if the Astros win at their current pace, they will likely only make the playoffs as a wild card team. If they play .500 the rest of the way they have a 20% or less chance of making the playoffs as the second wild card.
Now, before getting depressed by all of this, remember:
The point being that even though there is potential heart ache this season at least the team is in full contention and playing very important games in the month of July, rather than falling off the radar in May and June in previous seasons.
Based on what you see above, do you believe: