This has been a crazy season for the Astros: they were as cold in the first third of the season as former 3B Alex Bregman always was, then had an Alex Bregman warm-weather improvement for the second third of the season. And now we are part of the way into the last third of the season, and the Astros are slowly sinking a bit.
It just feels like time for a thought brain dump from Dan P. The only reason you should care is that it should give you (our fine readers) plenty to chew on.
What I’m thinking:
- No surprise – but I think that not only is GM Dana Brown a lame duck with a contract that runs out at the end of the season, but he is a dead duck, who will not get renewed after the season. The trade deadline situation with owner Jim Crane reportedly vetoing a trade of reliever Bryan Abreu to the Twins for OF Trevor Larnach was unprecedented and seemed to signal a major disconnect in the front office.
- I think the Astros are teetering on the brink of falling back out of the playoff spot. After the sweep of the Rangers gave them a 2-1/2-game lead, they have lost two series in a row and have not seemed to be the same team they were before the disappointing trade deadline.
- I think the Astros’ starting pitching may well be what kills their chances in 2026. Hunter Brown and Peter Lambert are solid, but after that it is very shaky.
- Hayden Wesneski has been a potential third starter since his return from the IL with a 3.86 ERA and averaging almost six innings in his two starts. But it is only two starts.
- Ronel Blanco in four starts has a 6.98 ERA and is averaging less than five innings per start.
- Cristian Javier, since being reinserted into the rotation, has averaged 5 1/2 innings per start, but with a 5.73 ERA.
- Tatsuya Imai after putting up a 5.55 ERA and imploding on four of his 15 starts (1.1 innings or less) is now in the bullpen.
- Mike Burrows, after an awful 5.99 ERA in his 17 starts, was sent to the minors and then stowed away on the IL.
- Kai-Wei Teng and his 5.52 ERA in his 10 starts is down in the minors.
- Spencer Arrighetti and Lance McCullers Jr. are gone with the wind in trades.
The Astros had depended on the “many” arms that could potentially start this year. But that depth has not resulted in the quality one would think would be needed in a pennant race.
- I’m thinking that it is very surprising that the Astros offense is performing so well compared to the rest of the AL – for instance, 550 runs scored is third highest in the AL. This is maybe more of a commentary on hitting throughout baseball than the Astros themselves. But being able to score that many runs while giving a lot of at bats to Christian Vazquez, Cam Smith, Brice Matthews, Jake Meyers, Joey Loperfido, Zach Dezenzo, Lamonte Wade Jr., Lucas Spence, Zach Cole, etc (all hitting .220 or less) is frankly remarkable.
- I’m thinking if this team does make the playoffs, it is going nowhere. I doubt their ability to hit against the premium pitching they will see and to get decent starting pitching.
- I’m thinking that the only reason the Astros may make the playoffs and may go fairly deep in the playoffs is the competition. Very mediocre.
- I’m thinking I am thinking too hard about things and need to just sit back and enjoy (or get enraged) every baseball day.
Whatcha thinking out there?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
30 responses to “What I am thinking, and why you should care”
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I think it would be ironic if we meet Minnesota in the playoffs and Lamach does well and Abreu does not. Or djtto with Toronto and Arrighetti / Varsho. But I think we will not make the playoffs this year.
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daveb – the only thing that bugs me is giving up a number of years of control of Arrighetti for a rental who may or may not be better than what we have
Astro Nut – It is a huge question – whether the Astros make it this year and if they do – does it matter? Yes, a matchup with the Twins would be interesting for sure. I am glad we kept Abreu because he is back to what he was – he has been very strong this second half (since Hader returned)
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Totally agree Dan. Eight weeks of Varsho smacks of desperation. We’ve seen Arrighetti own the league for a month at a time. I don’t think it was yet time to write him off.
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Cardinals’ player Nelson Velázquez claimed by the Astros from waivers and Shay Whitecomb has been DFA.
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Thoughts
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Why do I think Imai is back tomorrow as our TBD?
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It is an awfully good guess, daveb.
He’s quite rested (last pitched on Aug. 3) – he pitched the best he has since his portion of the nohitter many moons ago. Their options are not that great – but they do have a day off on Thursday, so if the cavalry has to help out tomorrow they can rest the day after.
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On the bright side maybe it would serve as a try-out for him where he could pitch really well against SF and convince them he should opt out of his HOU contract to sign there.
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Devin, I’d like to see him pitch for about 6 innings like he did in this last appearance in relief. Unfortunately, if the Astros tried to move him this winter, they’d likely have to pay a good part of his salary. I’m hoping he wants to go home. But with Boras in the picture, we’re probably stuck with him and his contract.
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What I’m thinking – though you really should take my thoughts with a grain of salt as they are usually random and all over the place –
I’m not sure Dana is a lame duck for just bad decisions (though he should be). I think part of it is the expiration of the CBA and the fact that Crane won’t be on the hook to continue to pay Astros staffers for sitting at home through a shut down. He probably won’t hire a GM until after the shutdown.
As for all these pitchers – its insane. But it’s proof you can’t just throw a bunch of mediocre at a problem. Your list missed Ryan Weiss, but I promise Crane hasn’t forgotten that 2M dollars. I hope Weiss is nice to his minor league teammates, a multi millionaire down there with kids making 50-60k while footing some of their own expenses. Sounds like the making of the next baseball comedy.
It’s obvious the Astros had lost faith in Arrighetti. But even if you have lost faith in the guy, you got 3 years of control. Even if he never improves, the fact that he can give you innings had to be more valuable then 2 months of a sub par hitting outfielder. A week in, this is exactly what Daulton (did not know he was named after Darren Daulton, but now I do!) is. A guy that is going to hit .220-.230 and pop the occasional homer, which may end up a completely useless homer like this weeks version.
I don’t think anyone is going to win the AL West.
I do think 2 teams are going to lose the AL West and someone will be left over. Seattle looks well on their way to losing the division. We are trying real hard, but the Rangers are trying not to be outdone.
Every team should be trying to build a bullpen like San Diego’s. Just one guy after another throwing 98+.
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So far this team is pathetic. Bases loaded 1st inning, no outs,no runs scored. 2nd inning , bases loaded no outs, 1 run. Now down 3-1 against a guy with a 7+ ERA. 0 for 4 RISP. Nothing since the 2nd inning. It’s painful to watch this. Maybe it’ll change. It did last night but it’s another day.
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Yes a very frustrating first 2 innings. The game should have been 4-0 at the end of the second, or worse. The second inning was the most heartbreaking despite it producing the one run because Pena and Alvarez batted with bases loaded and Paredes with 2 runners on, and it resulted in 1 run. At least in the 1st inning I have expectations of failure from the guys in those spots because I’ve seen it so much.
It’s clear Hunter’s location was all over the place last night. He still did what top notch pitchers do when they aren’t “on”, he gutted out 5 and kept them in the game. The offense had no interest in helping.
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Sorry 1st inning was 1 out.
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Thoughts
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We’ve got to accept the fact that Hunter Brown is not the same pitcher he was last year. I’m glad he’s healthy, but he just does not have all of his mechanics in order. Thing is, his exit velocity was 76 something last night, including the dinger to center. The Giants sure did not hit him hard. Steven yeah, Hunter did battle. You’re also right about another thing. I don’t think anyone is going to win the AL West either.
But one thing pissed me off enough last night to go read a book. Hunter had exerted himself quite a bit in order to get out of a bases loaded jam against the 9th hitter after giving up only one run in the 2nd. Our bats came out and went down on 12 pitches after getting 50 something futile pitches out of Whisenhunt in the first two innings. And in the fourth, our guys went down on 5 pitches. Five. That’s just showing no regard for their pitcher, a guy that was obviously struggling and could have used a bit of time to collect his thoughts. Don’t the hitting coaches consider this stuff? Or Joe? Anyone?
Yordan is frustrated. He’s not going to win anything unless he gets help. And the new guy, Nelson Velázquez, if he’s 5’11”, he’s no svelte 190, unless they didn’t have time to pour him into a uniform that fits. I’m tired of scrap heap acquisitions. Our organization has given us some wonderful years and recently dealt with just too many damn injuries. But this club really needs a major correction in the way it does business.
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I think there is something to saying they are fooling themselves. We keep seeing mediocre waiver wire grab after grab because they believe they have a good team and they are just filling one spot with a mediocre player away. Everyone has to walk around the facility pretending to make the boss happy.
The fact is they have one excellent player having a career year, that without him you are probably 7 games under .500 right now and out of the race. The rest of your team, is bad. Without Yordan and Jeremy they cannot even play .500 ball.
I hate the idea of rebuilding. But, I have to say, the Red Sox would have sent Arias for Pena. The Yankees would have sent Dominguez and Lombard for Pena. Yordan would have single handedly rebuilt your farm system. Hunter Brown would be the biggest trade chip in the offseason you have. Instead we get Varsho, we get Velazquez, and and nod and wink that we can win. We might avoid losing the division, but we aren’t winning it. And we probably get smoked in the playoffs.
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It seems all Dana can do is grab rejects from other teams. Kind of like grasping at straws. Is there anyone in the minors that we can call up? Can they be any worse than what we’ve been seeing for the the past month? And I’m not talking about those who have been here before but didn’t make it.
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You should have named names and shamed the hitters. In the 3rd it was Allen, Walker, and Vasquez. They weren’t chasing pitches. Allen got fooled on a changeup and the other two made outs on hittable fastballs. In the 4th it was Vasho, Smith, and Diaz. I imagine Diaz decided after taking a hittable fastball for a strike he’d done his job and could swing at anything.
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Crawfish Box says the Jays are paying the rest of Varsho’s salary this year. I think I’d still rather have Arrighetti.
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Agree!
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Pena is becoming the Strikeout king. Last 7 games 1 for 30 with 12 K’s; last 15, 14 for 67 with 25K’s. Already a K in his 1st bat today. He has developed into the Altuve syndrome (swinging wildly at pitches a foot off the plate. And to add insult to injury Bryan King walks 2 of 4 batters. De los Santos gives up a run scoring single, another walk but only a one run damage. Oh and Varsho, and Wade K’s too.
Not having any fun at all watching this game.
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6-5-4-5 double play. That’s about as ugly as it gets.
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I’d like to know why Velazquez would hit for Wade and then Walker would take over first for Wade.
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That is the latest example of Espada’s PPP managing.
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As Gomer Pyle used to say, “Surprise, Surprise, Surprise!” Bull pen came through and thanks to a couple of botched SF plays we return home going 3 – 3.
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The difference between SF and SD is more than a F and a D. Unless that F and D is fielding and defense, because SF needs help in those two. Cost them a series. Their bullpen didn’t help.
Again, the Astros didn’t win anything, they were given 2 wins by San Fran. I hope Jim Crane recognizes the difference between winning and not losing, because this team needs serious work in the offseason if its going to climb back up to the top. But at least we aren’t in a San Fransisco state of mind. That’s a franchise with an uphill climb. It’s exactly why you don’t just invest heavily in two guys who aren’t particularly good defensively, and whatever happened to Matt Chapman? Oof.
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Love the F&D discussion Steven. Yes, that first run was total gift, from the double play that was not turned on one of our slowest runners (Paredes) to the missed fly ball. It was possible the SF shortstop was hurt when he made that lame duck throw to second that allowed Paredes to beat it out – he was taken out later in the game. (Though maybe he was taken out because he was not hurt and made the lame throw).
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San Francisco are my “we tried” champions. They have no real chance at the division in the foreseeable future, but still went out and acquired some high cost players to appeal to their fanbase. With a payroll of $190M they’re behind the Dodgers ($311M reported for 2026, $1.115 Billion deferred), the Dbacks ($193M), and the Padres ($220M) in the standings. They know they aren’t winning. They’re staying well under the cap. Everything changes if someone can restore sanity during the coming lockout, but quite frankly I think a lot of teams are just biding their time until the Dodgers lose their media right’s exemption in 2038. Ok, probably not…most of the owners in MLB will long have sold the teams by that point. But the point is that division is stupid.
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Good morning Astro fans.
“Good teams find a way to win and we did”.
There is no crime in being a mediocre team. That’s just reality. However, when professional baseball players play stupid, bad baseball, then it’s really not excusable. Mental errors are just not acceptable. And when the manager trots out another time worn quote suggesting otherwise, it tends to insult one’s intelligence a bit.
I know Joe is tasked with being a cheerleader as part of his job description, but even his players know they’ve been playing crappy baseball.
Great job by the pen yesterday.
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