Yes, it is only a three-game series for the Houston Astros vs. the Texas Rangers, who lead them by 1/2 game in the AL West. Yes, there is more than 30% of the season to go.
If the Astros sweep the series, they would take a 2-1/2 game lead in the division, or if the Rangers sweep, they would move out to a 3-1/2 game lead. Or….it is also possible for the Astros to win 2 of 3 and have a 0.5 game lead, or the Rangers win 2 and have a 1-1/2 game lead after Sunday’s game.
No matter what, there is plenty of time for either team to flip the script or even for the third-place Seattle Mariners to grab the crown. But….
There are many reasons for this to be considered a critical series here in mid-July.
- For some strange reason, this series will be the last time the two teams face before the end of the season. So, there will not be an opportunity for another head-to-head matchup where a lot of ground can be made up.
- The Astros are leading the season matchup with the Rangers 6-4. This series will set up the tiebreaker between the teams, which has had a bearing on who makes the playoffs in recent seasons. If the Astros win one of the three, they will take the honor, while the Rangers need to sweep to grab the tiebreaker.
- Nine games ago, the Astros were 47-54 and 4 games back of the 50-49 Rangers after being swept by the Baltimore Orioles. Jeremy Pena reportedly gave the team a talking to about urgency after that sweep and then led with his bat. The Astros have gone 8-1 since then and, at 55-55, are a half game back of the 55-54 Rangers, who went 5-5. This series is about whether the Astros hold on to that momentum and flash past the Rangers or not.
How does this matchup look?
- Friday – Nathan Eovaldi vs. Hunter Brown
- Saturday – Jacob deGrom vs. Ronel Blanco
- Sunday – Kumar Rocker vs. the dreaded TBD
- Astros in July are 12-10
- Rangers in July are 11-11
- Astros at home – 26-27 / on the road – 29-28
- Rangers on the road – 27-29 / at home – 28-25
- Astros in one-run games – 10-8
- Rangers in one-run games – 19-10
Astros Starting Pitching
WL – 34-36 / 5.17 ERA (15th in AL) / 1.44 WHIP (14th) / 84 HRs (3rd worst)/ 532.2 IP (11th)
Rangers Starting Pitching
WL – 30-41 / 4.29 ERA (7th in AL) / 1.22 WHIP (5th) / 86 HRs (2nd worst) / 564.1 (7th)
Astros Bullpen
WL – 21-19 / 4.16 ERA (10th in AL)/ 1.31 WHIP (8th)/ 64 HRs (2nd most) / 441.2 IP (3rd)
Rangers Bullpen
WL – 25-13/ 4.22 ERA (11th in AL)/ 1.32 WHIP (10th) / 48 HRs (8th most)/ 392 IP (11th)
Astros Hitting
505 runs (4th in AL) / .241 BA (8th) / .316 OBP (7th) / .728 OPS (2nd) / 151 HRs (2nd)
Rangers Hitting
456 runs (11th in AL) / .245 BA (3rd) / .319 OBP (5th) / .722 OPS (7th) / 125 HRs (9th)
Some very odd things coming out of these statistics.
- The Rangers starters have almost a whole earned run lead on the Astros starters – but the Astros starters are only 2 games under .500 while the Rangers are 11 games under. Some of that is due to run support and some of it is due to some very bad/short starts by some of the Astros pitchers that did not always end in a loss, but did damage the cumulative ERA.
- The Rangers and Astros collective slashes on offense are extremely similar – Astros .241 BA/.316 OBP/ .728 OPS vs. Rangers .245 BA/ .319 OBP/ .722 OPS – yet the Astros have scored 49 more runs than the Rangers in one less game. This may tie to the Astros’ big margin in home runs.
- Both teams have middle-of-the-road bullpen ERAs, but the Rangers have kept their club alive with their 25-13 record from their relievers.
In the end, all that does not matter. The teams meet for three games starting Friday at Daikin Park and the results should be based on who plays better. The Astros hope their recent run will carry the day.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
27 responses to “Astros 2026: It’s only one series…”
Good morning Dan. A 5:00 AM posting from Houston? I thought you were announcing Brown and Pena getting traded. You’re going to need a nap before the game tonight.
I hope we see a bunch of good pitching. And I hope guys like Pena, Yordan and Paredes are the difference makers.
But in these highly anticipated series, it’s frequently one play by one of the little guys (I guess as opposed to a Dusty Baker big boy) that make a difference.
Not the end of the world if the Astros get swept. It sure would be an ugly look though, with renewed and vocal calls to fire Dana and Joe on the spot and have a sell off on Tuesday.
If Hunter gives us something close to a repeat of his last start, then 2 out of 3 is my expectation. That would keep positive momentum going.
Our pen is going to be refreshed too, not quite so for the Rangers. They went with a bullpen game yesterday I guess to set up the rotation for the weekend.
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I know people are saying still 30% of the season left, its important but not that important, but I disagree. This is the most important series of the season. First, we have momentum for the first time this year. That team is playing winning baseball. That needs to continue, and taking 2 out of 3 and grabbing the division lead is the kind of thing that continues confidence. Second, we have a series with Seattle left, but we are 1-7 against them and cannot catch them. We need to own the season series with Texas.
I fully expect Lambert to pitch Sunday on 4 days rest. He has done it a few times this year and pitched fine.
Trade deadline stuff – First Springer. It’s probably the most impactful move you can make. It hasn’t been a banner season, but he is finally healthy and playing well – .879 OPS in July. You can firmly plant him in the 4th spot, move Altuve to 5th, and try and extend this lineup. It’s been a fun ride but its a 3 headed monster, that can carry you at times but expecting it to remain the next 2 months is asking too much. If you still have the ability after to go get Bleday, do it. If you make a move for Springer, you need to put the best prospect you can that gets Toronto to absorb enough salary to keep you below the cap that allows the pursuit of a Bleday or McCarthy as well.
Right now though, there are half a dozen teams looking for a RH bat, there is no need for Toronto to bow to our needs for nostalgia, unless Springer forces it like Correa did.
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Agreed. I don’t think there is enough runway if they blow this opportunity.
Regarding Springer, my initial reaction was only if we give up nothing of value. Then I started to think about the salary involved. There are four or five guys in our system I would not trade for him. After that, it’s all negotiable depending on how much salary we have to absorb. I strongly doubt we will make the postseason. Going above the luxury tax to finish a couple games out doesn’t seem like a worthwhile trade.
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daveb – I was not up at 5 AM though often I’m up at 6 AM. I finished the post last night about 9 and Chip posted it with a start time of his choosing this AM.
You are right about a small play by a minor character making the difference. I hope we get tonight’s game and really put the squeeze on the Rangers.
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Dan, I thought you were working all night doing us a solid! Imagine technology allowing Chip to send while he sleeps. The world is moving too fast for me!
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Steven – maybe it is the right time to bring George back – a .800+ OPS in the outfield (outside Yordan) would make our heads spin.
But I hope we keep certain prospects like Kevin Alvarez and Xavier Neyens off the table.
And you are right we may not have what it takes to make the Jays make the move.
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Like Devin said, there are 5 or so prospects that I hope are completely on the off limits crowd. Besides the Jays really are a 4 game winning streak from thinking they are still in this thing. I think the only way we really could get Springer is for them to have a bad weekend. They are 5.5 games out of the WC right now. Make that 7 or so there are conversations to be had on Monday. Win this weekend, maybe its 3.5 games out and they think they got a shot.
I do know the internet has blown up over this Springer to Houston idea but nobody has actually asked the Blue Jays.
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Steven – maybe it is the right time to bring George back – a .800+ OPS in the outfield (outside Yordan) would make our heads spin.
But I hope we keep certain prospects like Kevin Alvarez and Xavier Neyens off the table.
And you are right we may not have what it takes to make the Jays make the move.
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With apparently limited resources available to pick up a player or two, I’d forget about pitching. For one thing, we have a day off every week for the remainder of the season. And there is probably less pitching to go around than the limited amount of bats available. Too many teams still alive, not enough talent to share. That makes any transaction more expensive. The real weak part of my thought process is whether or not Imai would accept a trip to Sugar Land going forward. Even then, Boras would likely insist on a very strict (short) time frame. I’m sure the Astros never thought it would come to this, but having given him the right to refuse demotion might essentially stick us with 12 pitchers on the 26 man roster.
As a result of this sticky mess, we really can’t afford to send Blubaugh anywhere. That would leave us with 11 experienced pitching options with a degree of reliability, assuming King and de Los Santos still have something left in the tank. On the plus side, Blanco, Wesneski and Javier have all shown a degree of readiness to contribute. Don’t move any of them either. Pitching ultimately wins games.
So get one bat. Lengthen the line up. George is growing on me. He would help. But I agree that at this point Neyens and the other Alvarez have to be kept. So what do we have to let go? I don’t know. I just don’t follow the minor league system much at this point in time. I wonder if Dana Brown is enjoying this moment? He should.
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I don’t know Dave, seems to be more impactful pitchers than hitters – Peralta, Alcantara, Greene, Ray, Gausman, Mize, Skubal, Reid, rumors are floating on all kinds of guys. I doubt there are that many outfielders out there.
Say the Astros win 2 of 3 from Texas. They are in first place. It’s Monday morning. How would you feel if you fired up your internet to find the Astros sent Arrighetti, Neyens and Frey with maybe 2 more marginal guys to Detroit for Skubal? I’d have mixed feelings. Prospects are prospects but I haven’t felt about a prospect like Neyens this much since Correa, and its two months of Skubal. But don’t you think Brown, Skubal and Lambert give you a chance in any playoff series?
It’s tough for me to just say no. This is why I said 2 months ago the worst thing that could happen to the 2029 Astros is the 2026 Astros stay within a few games at the deadline. You got a GM and Manager both working for their jobs.
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I agree Steven. Brown scares me with his need to keep his job with probably a bandaid fix and trading valuable prospects. The Astros have more than just Neyans and Alverez that should be protected. Also, I know they wanted to give Spence a decent look, but the kid at present seems lost. Loperfido?
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Steven, I think we need a bat more than an arm.
However, I don’t want Skubal for eight starts if the deal takes Neyens.
I’d rather sit in October and finally focus on fixing a very flawed roster starting with a new GM and manager.
So if Springer or another bat can be had for something manageable on this end, great. George would actually add some people to seats.
If not, let’s see if this roster can win this very winnable division. That’ll keep me interested.
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There is no way Crane would sign off on Skubal. He made 32M this season! What will his arbitration cost be for next season?? No, Crane is not onboard with that.
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Astros To Release J.P. France – MLB Trade Rumors
J.P. gave us some good starts in 2023. I wish him well.
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Astros Showing Interest In Lars Nootbaar – MLB Trade Rumors
Chip pointed this one out to me and asked if this was Jesus Sanchez 2.0
I told him I was hoping that I could use his name in Scrabble. Otherwise, I am not that enthused. But hey he could show up and tear things up a bit. Or he could be bad like Sanchez was.
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Dan, I think that’s indicative of the kind of trade(s) we’ll end up with.
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Nootbar can draw a walk, so he is better than Sanchez just in that regard. His bat is about the same impact. He would be an upgrade. But you can’t pay much for it.
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Steven, it should also be noted that a Skubal deal would have to get Crane’s blessing. I wouldn’t hold it against Dana.
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Per Rome, Imai to the bullpen.
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My bad, Skubal is a free agent at the end of the current season. Still, too rich for Crane next year.
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Sarge, he’ll likely be a very expensive rental for someone willing to give up the most high end prospects.
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Astros in first place!! Who would have thunk it last month?? As for myself, may I have some salt with that crow.
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Having a full season MLB package, I was pissed when I realized I’d have to pay Apple 12.99 to see the game last night. But watching Yordan knock that single through the left side of the infield for two runs with the bases loaded in the second inning made me smile. Most guys in that situation try to turn on a pitch and hit a Slam. Instead, Yordan put the Astros up 3-0 and set the tone for the game.
Our guy Yainer has a 1.003 OPS over the past four weeks.
Paredes has an OPS up above his career average. Same with Walker. If we’re buyers, we’re not selling these guys.
And how did Pena become such a good hitter? Remember those .715, .703, .701 OPS marks his first three years? One thing for certain. It does not hurt to hit in front of Yordan.
I guess the big non game issue yesterday was that Imai will go to the pen. So we are down to 12 pitchers essentially. He’s suddenly a garbage time guy, or worse, an 11th inning arm if we stretch out an extra inning contest. Total guess, but my take is that his camp refused a demotion. He wants to help the team win.
No easy task today with deGrom on the mound and a mostly intact bullpen for the Rangers.
But if Ronel keeps it even, we should be in the game, with a stronger pen to help finish. We’ll see.
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Thoughts
It’s only one game…..but it was a nice way to set the tone for the series and to take the tie breaker away from the Rangers
Yordan with two walks and two hits to left field – taking what they were giving.
Wade Jr. feels like he has the most effective .175 BA average ever – he seems to get hits in the clutch and of course he draws a lot of key walks
Hunter Brown does what the ace does and set the tone by holding them down until the runs came flowing
Yes, daveb – Yainer is making a big difference lately
Pena, Paredes and Smith with multi-hit games
It is time for them to really stick it to the Rangers – take the fight out of them with a game 2 win – let’s go guys
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Rumor has it that Brown worked out an exchange with Minnesota – Abreu for Larnach – and Crane vetoed it. Who knows, it’s a rumor, but man Larbach is no star but he is about 700K cheaper down the wire, solves LF, and has another year of control. I’m surprised Minnesota would do that (if it’s real) but it’s known they want a righty reliever.
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If that’s true, then Dana is already gone at the end of the season.
Also hearing from the guys tonight that Correa is trying to get back this year. If that were to happen, he’d be taking quite a bit of playing time from Altuve, not Isaac. Paredes would end up at second more often than Jose. I suppose Yordan might play a few more games in left, but not many.
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I’m surprised the Rangers bunted in the 4th to tie the game instead of looking for more runs. Seems with deGrom struggling so much this game is going to be about the bullpens. And as I write this, deGrom is leaving after getting just 10 outs tonight.
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