Astros’ 2026: Yes, no, maybe

Every time I start to write about the Astros since the All Star break, I am torn apart by the situation. Yes, the Astros are only 3-1/2 games back in the division with plenty of time to make up ground. No, they are going nowhere if Hunter Brown is as reliable as Tatsuya Imai. Maybe they can go on a Boston Red Sox 14-game winning streak tear and suddenly be very relevant.

Over the weekend, as the Astros were looking like the Keystone Kops in allowing the Baltimore Orioles to sweep them, I was depressed. Staring at the lineup they were rolling out there, all I could think was that Lucas Spence was no Hunter Pence, Nick Allen was no Dick Allen, Lamonte Wade Jr. was no Ken Griffey Jr., and Jose Altuve was no 2017 Jose Altuve.

The team put out their best three starters, Peter Lambert, Spencer Arrighetti and Hunter Brown, and lost all three games. (Note: Lambert and Arrighetti deserved better fates as they both had excellent outings, while Brown had a very problematic start on Sunday).

However,…. Monday was a new day. Ronel Blanco, in his return from Tommy John surgery, gave up 4 runs in 4.2 innings, which statistically does not look great. But watching him, he was very good, except for two walks followed by two homers (the only hits he allowed in the game). And anyone watching the game knows that he got screwed on a call that cost him the first two runs. He struck out eight, and he looked a lot like the pitcher who was the Astros’ best starter in 2024 before his injury.

Jeremy Pena came back from his injury Saturday and struck the biggest blow with an opposite-field grand slam that flipped the game from a 2-1 deficit to a 5-2 lead.

The Astros played a good fundamental game, the bullpen holding the line and the team moving on from a very bad weekend.

In my mind, there are a number of questions rattling around my brain that leave me uncertain about this team.

  • Can they actually make a move or moves that will really help the team at the trade deadline?  They have not been able to bring in anyone by call-up from the minors, trade, or waiver pickup who looks like a major league hitter for their outfield. They will be up against a ton more teams that are contending for the few crumbs from the non-contenders at the deadline, whether it is to pick up an OF or a pitcher, and they don’t have a good minor league system to turn to for prospects to deal.
  • Can they contend with Hunter Brown as a question mark? The team was anxiously awaiting their aces’ return, but he has been struggling, especially with his control the last three starts (15 walks in 14.2 innings pitched).
  • Can they contend not knowing which Imai, which Arrighetti, which Brown, and if he returns – which Mike Burrows will show up on a given night?
  • Can they contend with their best set-up man Bryan King in the minors after suddenly becoming extremely hittable?
  • Can they rely on players returning from the IL (Blanco, Bennett Sousa, Hayden Wesneski, etc.) to contribute?
  • Can they avoid the mess they made on the weekend against the Orioles, where they could not execute at the plate or in the field at critical times?
  • Do they have a winning streak in them? In the last two months, they have topped out with a three-game winning streak, which is really no streak at all.

Yes, I believe it is possible for the team to play better. And no, I don’t believe it is possible for them to play better. And maybe they could play better. But don’t quote me on it.

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19 responses to “Astros’ 2026: Yes, no, maybe”

  1. I watched Blanco and feel the same as you. He looked terrific. Sometimes you look terrific and this happens and that happens and you are pitching on a specific pitch count and next thing you are in the shower wondering about those 2 pitches. But that Ronel, is a big welcome back big man.

    Winning streaks are possible if Arrighetti, Blanco, Brown and Lambert all 4 give you top notch starts two times through and we manage to win an Imai start. Seems a big ask with the inconsistencies of Brown and Arrighetti.

    I don’t think the Astros can take the division. But I do think the Mariners and Rangers can let them have it but the Astros have to play a little better than they have been. It’s just time for desperation type moves. Sit Walker, L/R platoon him with Wade. Wade has not been good, but Walker has been terrible, and, as I predicted, Wade can at least draw some walks. No more Javier starts. He is a 2-3 inning bullpen option. Short hook on Imai. Why are we playing Spence? Why did they just not turn back to Meyers, he has been hitting the last week or so. Don’t look up and see the score 8-1 on your starter before you make a move. Manage the pen like your pants are on fire. If two hitters in a guy doesn’t look like he has his stuff, move on. Keep a shuttle going with SL if you need arms that are fresher.

    I feel bad for Mickey Storey at this point. He was sent King, but what do you think are the instructions on the package? Break only in an emergency? You get him for 10 days but you can only use him once somewhere in the middle? Constant instructions to keep this guy or that guy fresh to have available for the shuttle, oof. I imagine King is going to have to pitch well for 3 or 4 appearances down in SL before coming up though after basically losing 3 games himself in a week though, so its probably not just a break.

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  2. As for your questions –

    Tough to make a move when there are 18 buyers and 2 sellers. This expanded playoff is going to kill the trade deadline. I think under the radar, not in demand players are your best targets. Is Mickey Moniak going to save your season, no. Is he a better option than Lucas Spence, probably. But you cant give up a top 20 prospect for the guy.

    Simple answer – either Brown has to be an ace, or someone else pitching poorly is going to need to have a Kikuchi run.

    Not saying you can’t accidently win today even when your starter lays an egg, but its hard. You certainly can’t win a division playing that way. Interesting note on Burrows – the guys on ESPN were claiming the reason Burrows was put on the IL was not because he was actually injured but because he refused to go to AAA.

    Bullpens are funny. You just need the guy you stick out there to do well. You have to focus on matchups and try to keep some defined roles. Make it as predictable as you can, but remember, pants on fire at this point. Guys just have to get it done. Abreu and Hader both decided they wanted it to be interesting last night, so that can happen to anyone.

    Blanco looks like a yes, but it was just one start. Sousa is a must. A good 2 months from Sousa can tip this whole thing. From what I hear Wesneski is showing good velo. Hopefully he shows better location than he has in the past.

    Of course anyone can have a winning streak. Look at the Red Sox. Looked dead in the water. Also have missed their ace most of the season. Lost other pitchers. Couldn’t hit, couldn’t field, run off a 12 game winning streak and they turned the narrative completely upside down and made the division more attainable at this point than the 3rd WC spot. But if you were asking me to put money on the Astros chances of even a 5-6 game winning streak, I would rather put my money on a Baylor Big 12 championship game appearance. It seems possible, but unlikely. Its hard to have winning streaks if they aren’t accompanied with a corresponding quality start streak.

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  3. When Jose challenged strike three with two outs and Yordan on first in the first inning, it was a waste. And then Diaz did not use a challenge in the top of the second, probably because there was only one left. The result was a walk, a two run shot and probably 10 unnecessary pitches. Of course in the bottom half of the first, the Astros pretty much made it a moot point by scoring 6, but one dumb thought on the field put the Astros in a 2-0 hole and ultimately might have caused Joe to use an extra pitcher. Baltimore did not let them get away with that stuff over the weekend.

    It was another must win situation. Every game is right now. So, we got De Los Santos, Okert, even Hader with a 4 run lead. I’m sure he was delighted.

    I’m just not feeling it. Yordan remains remarkable. Very positive outing by Blanco. Pena got over his hammy cramps and got the biggest hit. But where else do we look? We need five more guys to have an exceptional last two months.

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    • If the Astros can find a buyer for Walker, I would would take it even if the return is low. Getting his salary off the books for next year would give so much potential. I hope they hold on to Blaubach and move Pena this winter. Right now, I think Seattle is the better team and probably the Rangers also. Just keep what decent prospects we have and get a better GM in the off-season

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      • Totally agree.

        The issue is he hit .223 in June, and has hit .171 in July. He is fading fast. He has 33 walks to 90 strikeouts. In July he has looked completely lost. I see no method of getting him off the roster. I would argue a contender wouldn’t take him even if we paid 90% of the salary. He is hurting our chances to make the playoffs. I can’t even find a playoff contender that is worse off at 1B.

        The Astros should just keep playing Wade right now. He at least is drawing walks. You sporadically play Walker when the matchups are right and see if you can get him going by getting some confidence up taking advantage of some matchups. Maybe you can see April Walker again if you can put him in situations to succeed and start feeling it. We all know we could use April Walker in September when its all out there. We can’t see anymore of July Walker, he is terrible.

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  5. Imai does the deal, Yordan is Yordanesk, Paredes with the long ball. YordanK’s but hustles down the line safely which leads to Paredes’ 3 run blast. Altuve with an 0 for 4 with a GIDP and a GITP. I hate to say it but find somebody else to play that position. First and second with nobody out and he tries to pull the ball with his 3′ off the plate stance which results in the triple play. He’s not playing like a potential HOF player but more like a Hall of Shame player.

    Others are saying to trade Pena but I’d really like to see if we can sign him. Any idea what his value would be? I kind of though that Paredes, Pena, Yordan, would be a good start to build an offensive team. When Correa returns we can move Paredes to 1st but that’s just guess work on my part.

    Thoughts? Two in a row, a big winning streak.

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    • Great ideas! I think Altuve just is what he is, at 36 pulling the ball a lot is the nature – the hands and eyes don’t communicate in a way that he is reading pitches. So older guys sit fastball. When they get offspeed they are just ahead of it, and they stay ahead of fastballs too. Whats happening to him looks very similar to what happened to our other hall of fame second baseman who also over extended his career in pursuit of 3000 hits. I will say this though in defense of Biggio – its very possible he needed that number to get in. He never won a MVP, there was only 2 or 3 seasons where he was even hands down the best second baseman in the league. It was mostly just being great a few years, a lot of good years, and a lot of longevity. I think he needed that icing of 3000 hits – he is literally the only guy with 3000 hits to not be a first ballot. I think Altuve, with the MVP, the playoff stats, the batting titles, he is going to be looked at differently – 3000 hits won’t matter.

      The Astros were rumored to have Pena agree to a 5/105 contract until Pena hired Boras and the whole thing was scrapped. Jeremy Pena will be 30 when he signs his next contract. Xander Bogaerts had just turned 30 when the Padres gave him 11/280. Who is Bogaerts agent? Scott Boras. Bogaerts is in the 4th year of that contract and already fading. That is why the Astros are correct in their 5 year limit. They finally broke it when they offered Bregman 6 – but the AAV tied to it, I think they knew Bregman would never accept it.

      I let my homerism out too. I was convinced Kyle Tucker, dude is built like a baseball player, that at 26, with that frame, with that BB/K ratio, give that man 10 or even 12. Today, I’m glad I don’t run the Astros. I think trading Pena and Brown are inevitable. The Astros should already be talking to Yordan’s agent once a week, just gauging. If he is looking for some massive, earth shattering 10 year extension, he will end up traded too.

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      • I think trading Pena and Brown is inevitable and wise too. I’m guessing that Tucker feels like a fish out of water in LA.

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  6. Seems we’d see more 5-4-3 triple plays. It looks routine when the ball is hit perfectly.

    Lance is working out of the bullpen. I guess he knew he would not be pitching without waiving the no trade.

    Imai. Can he throw three good games in a row? That would be helpful.

    I’ll bet the Red Sox were not happy about the rainout yesterday.

    We’ve got two aces on the mound tonight.

    I’d like to see Yordan get a real bat added to the line up, even if it only helps him win the crown. He’s the only reason we’re still within range in our crappy division.

    Those Fish have lost 8 in a row now. Good timing. Can we beat the first place White Sox this weekend?

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  7. The funny part of the Jeremy Pena slam is I actually grimaced. I wanted ducks on the pond for Yordan. Like TK and Blummer pointed out, Yordan can win 2 of the 3 triple crown categories by himself, but he needs help to lead the league in RBI. Pena didn’t help that in a winning cause.

    I have to take back the idea that Hunter Brown is the lynchpin to competing. Yea, we need our ace to ace. But if you can reliably get 5 or 6 from Imai that might be the thing that carries the day. An Imai start that doesn’t over extend the bullpen and has you with a lead when he exits can be a week changer because you already know even a struggling Hunter Brown generally at least keeps you close enough. Funny how different 4 and 2/3rds of four run ball looked from Blanco and Brown this week.

    Altuve is second or third in the league in GIDP. Probably now leads the league in triple plays. He should be batting 8th in a good lineup at this point but a diminished Altuve is still a bigger threat in an individual at bat than anyone batting 6th or lower in this lineup.

    Every game feels must win. Seattle and Texas will let us have it, but we got to work some. It won’t be free.

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  8. Thoughts

    • Give me 10 more starts like that from Imai and I will be a happy camper – but that is the question isn’t it
    • Funny how Dezenzo did not notice the wild pitch on his strikeout the other day and slunk back to the dugout and how Yordan hustled on his wild pitch strikeout for the play that set-up Paredes 3 run homer. Of course, Yordan’s was a pretty obvious pitch that was flying wildly inside.
    • Blummer has some pretty good eyes – he could tell that Pena’s double was really a home run in the first inning – exactly right that it caromed off the metal fence above the real fence
    • I love Altuve, but this is turning into a bad season for him. I will not understand why he won’t move closer to the plate – it seems pretty obvious to this non-expert.
    • Well, if Lambert can get the win against Alcantara that could lead to a bit of a winning streak with Arrighetti and Brown after him. They really need a sweep and screw the 2 out of 3.
    • Gusto looked good against us yesterday (2 shutout no hit no walk innings) though his 4.70 ERA shows that has not been the case too often this year

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  9. Just thinking out loud here. But could you imagine the haul the Astros would bring back if they were to trade Pena, Yordan, Paredes, and/or Hader at the deadline?

    Theoretically, at least, if it were done well, the team *could* actually be better in ’27 than in ’26.

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    • I’m glad you asked. I actually wrote this out on a scrap piece of paper spitballing.

      I would send Pena to the NYY for Lombard and Dominguez. Paredes to Philly for Nolan Beltran, Nathan Humphreys and Alec Bohm (who I likely non tender after this season, instead of paying him 15M since Correa will be back). The big one is Alvarez to Boston for Payton Tolle, Franklin Arias, Roman Anthony, and we take on Kristian Campbells bad contract for recompense of that haul. Hader to the Cubs for Brett Bateman. Javier is a sunken cost. If we can get someone to take a chance on him, fine. If not, he is a permanent member of the bullpen and long guy. Abreu – out for salary relief. Not even worried about what comes back.

      Lambert is the question. If you turned into sellers he could bring back a top 20 prospect from someones system. He is a FA at the end of the year, we have no control.

      Walker is a sunk cost. If I’m resetting, I’m just Abreuing the guy. Sure, I’ll shop it, maybe if we are willing to pick up some inordinate percentage, like 80%, someone will play him at 1B. I just doubt it. He isn’t as bad as Abreu got though, maybe you just him at 1B next year since you are paying it anyway.

      I’m making one FA move – I’m offering Arraez 3 years to play 2B. His hangup, and the reason he took 1 year in SF, he wants to play 2B not 1B.

      If that is the case – 1B – Walker, 2B – Arraez, SS – Arias, 3B – Correa, LF – Dominguez, CF – Bateman, RF – Anthony, C- Diaz, DH – Altuve. I don’t think that is any worse than we put out there now, just minus the big man. Cam is still around to compete, teach him a little first base, let him take the corners and all 3 OF positions as a super sub. Keep Allen. You have Campbell for the next 8 years and the second half of that contract is some big years, so you move him back to 2B at AAA and cross your fingers. Your rotation now has a strong number 2 in Tolle. I would offer Lambert 3 years now. Get him signed. Put him behind Brown and Tolle. Arrighetti is still there. Imai is probably still there. Its a start of a rotation. Blanco is still there too. Weneski is back.

      The bullpen is the issue. Gonna have to spend money. But we have a bit free now. The team is younger, more athletic, cheaper, and in this division may still compete.

      But that is dreamland. Heck, Boston would probably balk at that even for the mighty Yordan. Maybe they take it if you add Neyens or one of the better prospects you got from some of the other deals. It would be nice to find a way to do it without taking on Campbell, but part of me thinks he reminds me of Smith, there is untapped there that is just being crushed with the questions in his own mind.

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    • Chip, I’m looking to extend Yordan at this point. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think he’ll be looking play until he’s in significant decline. All there other guys, at least make them available.

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      • If he does fold because of a 8 game losing streak, he will just instruct them to start getting ready to win 2027. I would put the chances of a sale off around 1%.

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