Our good buddy, Chip sent me a text Sunday saying “OK…If the Astros somehow figure out how to win this series today, I’m going to probably shake my head and throw my hands up. Go figure this team.”
And that is what the Astros did on Sunday, pulling out a series win over the previously red-hot Tampa Bay Rays. This series looked like it was headed for a Rays sweep around the fourth inning on Saturday as the Astros had already lost the opener and were down 7-2 in the middle game. But the team that friend of the blog, Daveb, called “a stubborn mediocre group” kept plugging and tied the game at 8-8, and the Rays ended up pitching to Yordan Alvarez to their detriment as he walked it off in the 9th.
On Sunday, the Astros played a close-to-the-vest game, winning behind another great start by Peter Lambert, 3.1 innings of bullpen-shutout ball, and homers by Christian Walker and Isaac Paredes. Side note – Walker rubbed Yordan’s bat all over himself after Saturday’s game and hit the opposite-field homer while Alvarez went 0 for 4. Coincidence?
But back to the theme of this post. The inconsistency of this team makes us shake our heads when we watch them today and when we look at their shaky run back towards .500 and contention. Run back? It has been more like an ooze back.
When the Astros lost to the Twins back on May 20, they were 20-31, 6 games back in the AL West and 5 games back of the Wild Card. Now they did go on a four-game winning streak immediately after that loss, but since then it has been a lot of two steps forward and one step back. They have won 6 of their last 7 series, sweeping none of them. That might seem like some consistency, but frankly it has been a bit of an odd run due to the inconsistency of their starting pitching. The bullpen, which has been sterling, has won 9 of their last 15 games.
Starters
One of the main things that has had the fans shaking their collective heads has been that we start every game (other than Peter Lambert’s starts) wondering what the starters will bring that day.
- Hunter Brown – Hunter has been back for four up-and-down starts. First time back, he threw a typical Hunter start – 5.2 innings and 1 run allowed. He followed it with a start where he only went three innings (1 run allowed), and then six innings with three runs/two earned allowed. Last time out he gave up seven runs/ six earned in a four-inning disaster that was saved by Yordan’s heroics. Which Hunter is showing up next?
- Spencer Arrighetti – After a scorching May, where he was chosen as the AL Pitcher of the month, Arrighetti went 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA in 5 very disturbing starts in June. He turned it around in his only July start with a 6 inning / 1 run stint against the Rays. Hopefully, May Spencer is back for July.
- Tatsuya Imai – His last four starts have been – 0.2 IP/5 runs, 6 IP/ 3 runs, 6 IP/ 0 runs, and 1.1 IP/ 5 runs. You tell me what will happen next.
- Mike Burrows – His first three starts of June he gave up 16 runs (13 earned) in 15 innings. Then after a re-set one inning outing from the bullpen, he had a good 6 inning/ 1 run start followed by a so-so 5 inning/4 run start. Which Mike shows up next?
- Kai-Wei Teng – After putting up an 8.83 ERA over 4 starts, Teng threw a sharp 6 IP/1 run start followed by a 3.2 IP/ 5 runs/ 4 earned start. He was then sent down to the minors but shifted to the IL.
In the last 6 weeks, the Astros have not lost more than 2 games in a row but have also not won more than 3 games in a row. Staring at the results from all the starting pitchers not named Peter Lambert, it is no wonder the team cannot string more than 3 wins in a row. Those starters have a problem stringing two quality starts in a row.
Offense
The other side of the inconsistency problem has been the Astros offense. In the last couple of weeks, the Astros have won four big scoring comeback wins – 9-7 over Toronto, 8-6 and 7-5 over Detroit and 10-8 over Tampa Bay. But that same offense scored 2 or less runs in 7 of their last 15 games.
This offensive inconsistency has also played a part in the team not quite going on a significant winning streak. That has been driven by several things:
- Jeremy Pena’s IL stint – as stated before, the Astros are a much better team won-loss wise with Pena in the lineup. He triggers the rallies and sets the table for Yordan and others to tote up the RBIs.
- Jose Altuve’s fall-off – His great Saturday game was an anomaly. Since April 12th he is slashing .208 BA/ .269 OBP/ .615 OPS, which is probably the worst of his career over a 50+ game period.
- Christian Walker fall-off – Over his last 55 games he is slashing .190 BA/.258 OBP/ .662 OPS. His 12 home runs and 31 RBIs helped a bit, but a sub-Menodza bat in the middle of the lineup is problematic.
- The wimpy outfield – the poor numbers out of anyone they put in the outfield (other than Taylor Trammell) has been off-putting. Cam Smith (.221 BA/ .293 OBP/ .672 OPS), Joey Loperfido (.216 BA/ .314 OBP/ .647 OPS), Jake Meyers (.206 BA/ .264 OBP/ .580 OPS), and Brice Matthews (.191 BA/ .244 OBP/.564 OPS) have all been performing below average to way below average at the plate and Loperfido and Meyers are in the minors because of it. Cameos by Zach Dezenzo, Zach Cole, Dustin Harris and Daniel Johnson have been equally poor.
Sometimes it is a wonder they can put together these offensive outbursts with so many below-average performers in the lineup. Of course, the results are equally inconsistent.
The bullpen has been the one beacon of consistency on this team and has, frankly, been critical in keeping it afloat.
The Astros badly need more consistency from their starting pitching to take the next step in their chase for a playoff spot. More consistent offense would be nice, but the starting pitching is always the most critical spot for this team.
Any thoughts on the Astros’ lack of consistency?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
18 responses to “Inconsistency: Thy name is Astros”
My thought on all this inconsistency is that it will remain a consistent issue.
But my only real thought is that I wonder if Hunter Browns shoulder is feeling as good as it needs to. If it’s not working as it was prior to the injury, he should not be on the mound.
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I went back and looked at Hunter’s pitches from Saturday. His velocity on the fastball was mostly 95-96. He gave up his two homers on off-speed pitches. He seemed to have more control problems than anything – either was way off the plate or was grooving it. Not sure if he’s hurting or not.
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And the inconsistency varmint strikes again. Burrows was left in there way to long as he was all over the plate allowing Nats batters to pick and choose their pitches. And of course the stupid throw that led to the 6 run inning. Kudos to the bottom of the order for getting us back in the game but it wasn’t enough.
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I’m a little wrinkled over Espada leaving Burrows in. Watching the game with my better half I told her when he had 1st and 3rd with no outs in the 3rd inning that would have been his last batter. I’m trying to win a game not let Mike Burrows “work through it.” I understand what Espada is hoping happens, but what you hope for would have to be a monumentally different thing that was happening before his very eyes. After that point, Burrows gave up 7 more runs and got just 4 more outs. That decision cost us the game. Maybe it was a day Pearson has to go two innings, maybe you even have to roll the dice on an Abreu inning, but Burrows was clearly figured out by the Nats from the start.
Consistency is a team effort. They all affect each other. The bullpen’s turnaround coincides with the rotations turnaround. Well, it’s easier to manage a pen when you can more reliably get 15 outs from the starter, it lets every reliever start to fall into roles, expect on the pace of the game if today is a game they may see action, limits their innings, and doesn’t force them into playing for extra outs. Blubaugh stepped into a hornets nest last night against the middle of the order, and not only was he asked to get out of that he knew he had to pace some because Espada was probably hoping Blubaugh is pitching into the 6th. Last nights decisions just made everyone look bad.
Who knows. Maybe turning to the bullpen earlier doesn’t change a thing. Maybe the Nats were predestined to score 12. I know Burrows gave up 10 in 4.1 innings and the rest of the staff gave up 2 in 4.2 innings. We win if that is 5 in 3 innings and the rest of the staff is 4 in 6 innings.
Kudos to this offense for making them sweat. Hate to see an 11 run effort wasted as they just don’t have that many of those in them.
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Odd to think that a 12-11 game is a ‘one-run game’, but that’s what it was. Astros are 9-6 in one-run games.
Yes, this team is scoring a lot of runs, but comparatively, they’re way off the all-time Astros’ mark, which is 938 in 2000. This team is on pace for 739. Bagwell scored 152 times in that 2000 season and Biggio scored 146 in 1997 (Yordan’s on pace for 108). The point? As good as this offense seems at times, this puts it in perspective. This is a mediocre team, playing in a mediocre division and a mediocore league this season.
That said, a decent bat and/or arm at the deadline could certainly push the Astros over the .500 hump. Whoopee!
Then again, Seattle will be doing the same thing.
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The offense gave Burrows a nice 6-1 cushion. That should have worked. At this point, it’s fair to say that Burrows is not simply inconsistent. He stinks. He’s been stinking for 90 plus innings now. I’ve wondered if Burrows has the ability to focus on every pitch, every play. I don’t think Javier will be working out of the pen for very much longer.
And although I’ve consistently reminded everyone that Joe has to do what he can with the roster handed to him, he really stunk up that game last night too, once again thinking too far ahead, focusing on getting a few more outs from Burrows. If Espada wants to use Blubaugh so early, then get him in there before Burrows can screw the game up entirely.
Burrows is Dana’s most important fail. Maybe he thinks a Burrows miracle will still happen. Save his job? In the meantime, is our club sliding towards oblivion, or is this still a tease before the hot streak? I think it’s going to remain one long tease, no oblivion, no hot steak.
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Thoughts
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Good consistent points Dan. As far as Melton goes though, he had very similar stats last year in Sugar Land. He consistently hits well in AAA ball. He’ll be 26 in a couple of months. Will he ever hit ML pitching?
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You know with some of these guys I just don’t like to jump to conclusions on them relative to a short cameo in the majors.
For example
Player A is Jacob Melton / Player B is Kyle Tucker.
Yes – Melton will never show the power that Tucker has and he was older when he debuted, but that does not mean he might not be better with another / longer shot.
Bregman struggled at first – 64 ABs – .156 BA/ .236 OBP/ .455 OPS. George Springer after 68 ABs was hitting .191 BA/ .257 OBP/ .477 OPS and he was headed towards 25 years old at the time.
And maybe Melton is a AAAA player. But I’m not sure we know that after a short stay at the majors, in which he was sent up and down a few times.
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Tucker and Bregman had much better minor league numbers, especially Bregman. They warranted extended looks.
But I’m not here to disparage Melton. I think there is a good chance he can be a productive major leaguer ages 27-31 seasons. There is a reason that Tampa circled the guy, and I trust the Rays scouts and front office more than I do the Astros. But productive major leaguer is not the same as Tucker and Bregman (well, not 2026 versions lol).
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I’m not thinking Melton will be another Tucker or Bregman – just saying that you can’t judge any of these guys on their first cup of coffee. Once in a while you get a Carlos Correa or Yordan Alvarez who win the ROY, but that is not the norm.
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Whoa! I didn’t see this coming. Not saying it’s not warranted, just didn’t expect they’d pull this trigger!
Mike Burrows sent to AAA.
Alimber Santa recalled to Houston.
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How long could the club stay with Burrows? It’s getting to the point after 93 games where Dana can’t keep waiting for guys to figure things out. Good to see Alimber get another shot. Javier to the rotation?
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Good morning!
The boys grinded that one out last night. Kind of like watching a 0-0 World Cup match finally determined by a penalty shootout. Hader with the bases loaded was not quite so dramatic though.
Imai looked like he was going down quickly but hung in there and got 11 outs despite raising his ERA to 6.06. That bloody finger looked like a non baseball injury. Maybe his scuffing blade nipped him.
One stat noted yesterday that certainly sticks out. Dana’s six pitching acquisitions from the off season have combined for a 5.77 ERA to date. Just two of those guys are on the 26 man at this point.
We got five of our six RBI’s from the 8th and 9th slots. Nick Allen might have earned player of the game.
Yordan looks ready for a break. I hope he’s got a big weekend left in him.
Bryan Abreu touched 98 and 99 last night. Did someone find the key?
We really don’t have a defensive replacement behind Altuve as it stands right now.
Who is going to make Burrows start on Sunday?
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I’m going to kindly ask Dan and Chip to go delete every other blog from the offseason where I happily proclaimed Burrows a breakout possibility and plus pitcher. Let’s get on that stat guys.
I fully expect Javier to make that next start in place of Burrows, but Blanco is probably coming into the rotation right out of the all star break. Maybe they will extend to 6 man. Maybe Imai is next. They are in fire mode at this point. You can’t just keep giving Imai starts if he is going to keep losing you games. Maybe not the minors for him, but to the bullpen.
It’s not that I trust Javier either though. Or McCullers. And Blanco will be a mystery. Really, our season is at stake on the arm (and Dan’s favorite word of the week, consistency) of Spencer. Hunter Brown better find 98 and better command than his last two starts as well.
Speaking of 98, Bryan Abreu hit that twice last night. When Bryan Abreu is hitting 98 that slider becomes a nightmare, even without good command. Javier was also sitting 93-94 and hit 95 in his first appearance, but it was in relief so he was probably unloading a little. But they are baby steps to see these two guys recover and earn their salaries, and would be much needed help to this team.
As for the trade deadline, I know he has said OFer and left handed bat but he has been saying that every deadline/offseason since he was hired. This team should be targeting a starter. Skubal or Gray should be in play, but the Astros have about 3 prospects other teams would be interested in and we should not move any of those 3 for a rental starter. I would again point at Sugano, who would cost us less than 2.5M, probably not a real prospect, and give Imai someone to even just talk to. And given his injury woes this year, you might even get him for practically free. They can probably get Duran for practically nothing at this point, and being on the hook for 4M still won’t put them over the cap for 2026. And if he continues to stink, you can always non-tender him instead of paying him 10M next year to stink.
There are just too many buyers. The Astros are talking about Moniak and McCarthy, two Rockies that can’t hit outside of Colorado. I would rather just play Wade, at least he has a track record outside of Colorado.
Saw where the Cubs DFAd Chas. I’m assuming he will stick with the Cubs in Iowa and they just wanted him off the 40 man, but our boy has fallen hard. I’ll always remember the catch, and Ma’s meatloaf. Just a character guy.
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daveb
Steven
Time to win another series tonight. Keep grinding those 2-1 series if they can.
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Good morning!
Dan, you could not have written a more timely post. You should not have written such a timely post! I missed the game last night but the box score pretty much told the story. I just watched the condensed game. Spencer, when he was able to get the ball over the plate, dropped some very polite meatballs in there, almost on a tee. It did not matter what pitch he was trying to throw. What has happened to the Pitcher of the Month? Our rotation is suffering from some unexplained epidemic at this point. Pitching coaches? Yanier the catcher? No, flat out bad pitching. Those same catchers are catching the bullpen guys. Same pitching coaches are coaching the pen guys too. And complaining about Joe waiting too long to pull a guy is a moot point too, if all of our starters need a quick hook. I’m not sure if the Ranger series is going to be fun to watch.
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I didn’t watch the 9th, but I did watch the rest. The Nats offense is real. They don’t miss mistake opportunities. To think the Padres had James Wood, CJ Abrams and Mackenzie Gore all 3. They have to be kicking themselves today. And Susana is ranked 80th prospect with a fastball touching 100. Oof. And when you look at what they turned Gore into – 5 new prospects with a top 100 and 3 others that are doing well.
I sure am having fun watching Yordan. But man, you have to be tempted, when you look at the Nats with Wood, Abrams, 2 top 100 prospects and 3 other highly regarded prospects that are the result of that Soto trade.
The Spencer of May is gone. The Spencer of June is probably gone too. He is going to make mistakes. He is going to issue walks. Both things have plagued his career. But he isn’t always going to walk 6, and he isn’t always going to face the Nats offense. There will be some starts against offenses that don’t hit as many of the mistakes and don’t spit on as many close pitches. He is just another name of typical 5th starters we have that are being asked to pitch above their pay grade.
Watching that Nats offense, that is how you build an offense. Up and down, spitting on close pitches, power, patience waiting on their pitch, and take advantage of them.
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