Nobody wakes up one morning and discovers their franchise is broken. It’s a slow erosion, one domino at a time. It happens in pieces, one decision at a time, each one making the next one worse. The 2026 Astros aren’t the product of bad luck or a down year. They’re the product of six specific choices that spread like cracks in a dam until it’s sprung so many leaks it’s about to burst completely.
1. The Stars Who Got Away.
Jim Crane has spent the last five years running the Astros the way Jerry Jones runs the Cowboys: convinced he’s the smartest guy in the room, allergic to paying market value, and somehow surprised every time a franchise player walks out the door. The résumé speaks for itself:
- George Springer, 2020. World Series MVP. Six years, $150 million to Toronto. Houston’s center field has been a revolving door ever since.
- Carlos Correa, 2021. Franchise shortstop. Offered five years, $125 million when he was probably worth twice that. Correa himself said there were “not really any negotiations.”
- Alex Bregman, 2024. Nine years, two rings, seven straight ALCS appearances. Now making $35 million a year at third base for the Cubs.
- Framber Valdez, 2025. You know the story. Signed with Detroit for $115 million. Told the Chronicle the Astros never even called.
Four franchise players, four see-ya-laters, and the same playbook every time.
2. The Next Ones Out the Door.
Jeremy Peña was reportedly close to a $105 million extension last summer before he switched to Scott Boras. Hunter Brown made the same move after his Cy Young-caliber 2025 season. Every Astros fan has seen this movie before, and they know exactly how it ends. Dana Brown can talk publicly about extensions all he wants, but Boras doesn’t take clients so they can sign hometown discounts. The clock isn’t just ticking on these two; it’s almost out of batteries.
3. The Click Divorce.
Six days after winning the 2022 World Series, James Click was gone. Crane offered his championship GM a one-year deal that was designed to be rejected, and Click rejected it. It was the first time a World Series-winning GM had been kicked out in 75 years. Reports had circulated all season about Crane overruling trades Click had put together, including a deadline deal for Willson Contreras that Crane personally killed. The message to every future front office hire was unmistakable: winning it all doesn’t buy you job security here. You can argue this one move doomed the organization for the next decade.
4. The Bare Cupboard.
The Astros rank 29th out of 30 teams in farm system rankings with zero Top 100 prospects, and it didn’t happen by accident. Every time a star walked, or the roster needed a patch, the organization raided the minors to fill the gap. Will Wagner and Jake Bloss went to Toronto for Kikuchi. Jacob Melton and Anderson Brito went to Tampa Bay for Burrows. Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford went to New York for Verlander. That’s nine prospects out the door in roughly three years, including two first-day draft picks, and several of them dealt for rentals who signed elsewhere as free agents. What’s left? Crumbs. You can’t strip a farm system for three straight years and then wonder why there’s nothing in the pipeline.
5. Lame Duck Leadership.
Joe Espada and Dana Brown are both in the final year of their contracts, and Crane has publicly said he’ll evaluate them after the season. So how does a manager command a clubhouse when the whole room knows he might be gone in October? How does a GM work the phones at the trade deadline when the other side knows he’s negotiating for his own survival? Lame duck status doesn’t just hurt morale; it undercuts every conversation these two men have with players, agents, and opposing front offices. Make a decision already!
6. The Crane Problem.
And that brings us to the man whose fingerprints are on all five of the decisions above. Early on, Crane (post-Luhnow) was the owner who couldn’t keep his hands off the operation, personally killing trades and pushing out a championship GM. Then came the Crane who wouldn’t commit, offering short-term deals to franchise cornerstones and letting stars walk rather than pay market value. And now? The franchise is sliding under .500, his two most important leaders are twisting on expiring contracts, and the owner who once meddled in everything has gone silent (at least publicly). The meddling was bad, but the silence might be worse.
One More Thing.
Before there was Click, before there was Dana Brown, before the stars started walking and the farm went bare, there was Jeff Luhnow. He built the machine that won in 2017 and should have kept winning for a decade. Then the scandal hit, and Luhnow had a choice. A.J. Hinch took responsibility, served his suspension, and is back managing the Tigers today with Framber Valdez pitching for him.
Luhnow went hardline, played the victim, and sued Major League Baseball. He hasn’t been in a front office since. That’s where the erosion began. Every decision on this list traces back to the moment the guy who built the dynasty chose to fight for himself instead of finding his way back to the game.
Trust eroded. Crane changed. The Astros changed.
One domino tipped over, and the rest have been falling ever since.
There ya go! Six decisions and one bonus. Lots of common threads, and then there’s a fan base that’s been watching this unfold in slow motion for half a decade, waiting for somebody at the top to change the script. Did I miss one? Did I get one wrong? Tell me in the comments.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
20 responses to “The 6 decisions that built this mess”
Oh, it’s probably more than 6 decisions. We were the mountain top of baseball for a 5-7 year run. Two WS wins. Four appearances. Playoff after playoff. Most importantly, we are the only AL team without a blemish to the Yankees in the playoffs.
I don’t think letting any of them leave is bad. None of them played up to the contract they were paid. Their WARS on the way to getting paid was great, their WARS after getting paid, not as great. Don’t be the team paying old dudes a bunch of money because they were once great. For me, Tucker would have been the one exception. Now, we are glad he wasn’t.
No, the mistake for the Astros in the past was not trading people you aren’t going to resign. I’ve used the Price analogy before. The Rays paid him somewhere in the neighborhood of 20M for 21.3 WAR. The rest of baseball paid him 200M for 19.1 WAR. And then, they traded him for Smyly, Adames, and Franklin, and got another 3.8 WAR from Smyly, before moving him for Yarbrough and Mallex Smith – Smith gave them a great 4.8 in 2 years, not to mention the 7.8 WAR they got from Willy Adames. They turned Price into all of that, and the tree is longer (and still going). We just let people walk. Tucker is the first time we started a tree, and it’s too early to see where it goes.
So, be the Rays. Look, I would offer Hunter Brown a franchise defining contract. But if he won’t sign it as an extension in the offseason after whatever 2027 season we get, he is gone. And Pena, I would move him now, because I don’t suspect there will be an offseason. Use the deadline. Create trees.
I’m not a huge fan of Click. Not that I’m anti-Click, we just don’t really know. Sample is small, and they won a WS with guys Luhnow found. Managers, they are kind of the here and now. GM’s, at least half, if not more, of their decisions, are not felt for years.
To be fair, none of those prospects become impactful players. So that’s just more damning evidence this farm system is terrible.
I agree, lame duck status for a GM is quicksand. You might force him into some win now decision at the deadline that cost us dearly. If Neyens, or Frey, or K. Alvarez, or Pecko or any other guy goes out for a half year rental, it’s only going to drive our stock down more.
Last night was great. I had a “I just scored a touchdown” moment in my office watching that Alvarez at bat. Ryan was frustrated, somewhere around 35 pitches in on the inning, he had just strutted off the mound towards the dugout thinking he struck out Altuve, that grand slam was quite a moment.
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You are right on, more so than Chip is. Those whom we let walked all underperformed for the $$. None of the prospects we traded became stars, and most didnt stick in the Show. Crane/Bagwell have made some moves that disabled the team. Hiring Espada to manage on the cheap was a mistake. Dana made a great deal in the Tucker trade, but hasnt hit pay-dirt since. We should be sellers/buyers not buyers/sellers at the deadline.
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Thoughts
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I have a bad habit of not fully completing thoughts at times, but my brain was ‘completing’ the thought in the concept of Brown/Pena. Yes, Crane will never ante up market prices, and he shouldn’t, but these guys can’t keep walking with nothing in return.
On the minor league system, granted many of those guys didn’t turn out to be much. BUT, when you rob the top talent you throw the entire system into disarray. Everyone has to move up, ready or not, and the domino effect catches up to you eventually. No one is ready.
You can’t keep taking without paying the price one day. And the Astros are paying the price now.
Think Cam Smith. How much damage was done because he was pushed/rushed and spent only 32 games in the minors?
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Sometimes writing these posts makes you a target, especially if you forget to get all your thoughts in there.
I do wonder about how much this did effect Cam. He looks like a stud and plays like it sometimes but would he have been farther along if he spent 2025 learning his craft at AAA instead of jumping to the majors. He has a lot of talent but is still really young – hopefully he will continue some of the momentum from what he is showing this month.
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You are spot on. I so agree with everything you said. Crane is the main problem. I would like to retain Espada but dump Brown. The problem is who wants to work for a meddling owner like Crane. The last question I have is how much influence does Bagwell have in the decisions Crane makes???
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You’ve got to be kidding, right? For the most part, all four of those franchise players have performed very poorly, particularly in relationship to their salary. Perhaps you missed this, but George Springer is a .216 hitting designated hitter this year. Carlos Correa rebounded the last year or two, but Jeremy Pena was a fine replacement for him at much less cost. And you left out Kyle Tucker, who at the moment is batting .239 with 7 home runs, 44 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .715 OPS. If the Astros had kept all those players, they would be a worse team this year with a salary structure in the top three.
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Hi Billy. Hindsight is great, isn’t it?
First, I have a problem with any player being worth north of $150 million to a franchise. So I’m probably coming closer to Crane’s mindset than the Yankees or Dodgers. I drive a 10-year-old pickup. I have the money to buy a new truck, but I don’t.
Now, the bigger issue is that the Astros let all those guys walk and got nothing in return. At least they traded Tucker and got back three guys who could be quality. But nothing for Bregman, Framber, Springer et al.
That should inform how they deal with Hunter and Pena. That’s my two and a half cents.
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Thoughts on yesterday’s game
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Am I cheating if I say he is a little of both dudes?
If I was pinned down on one, he is the second dude pretending to be first dude, acting like he is another dude. If you get it, you get it.
He should have added another loss to his league leading loss mark, but Yordan just Yordaned for him.
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Good late morning!
Good eye by Altuve last night. ABS worked out for the Astros last night. It was a significant event in the game for the second night in a row. Wonder if the boys chatted about Monday nights failed ABS outcome.
I loved watching all four of those guys play their prime years in Houston. We didn’t let them get away, the crime was in not getting anything for all four of those stars. If the”trade Tucker mentality” had existed back then, we would have bridged the gap with an influx of talent both with prospects and ML ready ballplayers.
And let’s face it, Pena and Brown will also not be staying here long term. We’ve got to use those guys to get real help when the time comes.
The Crane round table, likely with significant help from Dusty, collectively sent Click away. Maybe this experience in Houston soured his desire to go looking for the next GM job. He seems to be appreciated in his role with the Blue Jays and comfortable. To me, he’s the key guy we let get away.
We really have not lost much from the minor league system except for bodies. There are a couple of exceptions, but heck, our system stinks to this day.
There are plenty of guys in the Astro clubhouse that have seen GM’s and managers come and go. The Astros roster has a bunch of stable, mature guys. They’ll go with the flow without it affecting their play on the field. I still believe that judgement day for Dana and or Joe won’t happen until after the season is over.
We are stuck with Crane for the foreseeable future. He’s the one battle that might not be fixable. I can only hope Junior takes over the reigns gradually and is a better delegator. Probably a long shot though.
Excellent post Chip. I’m late to the proceedings today. And when I’m late, I intentionally ignore all the other comments before I post. Reading back through everyone else’s thoughts is the best part of Chipalatta.
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Lots of tough love for Crane today eh.
Lets remember this guy won 2 WS as an owner of a franchise that in the previous 50 years had exactly zero. No one is tougher on the committee than me, I feel pretty strong that Nolan Arenado’s pursuit was Bagwell’s idea, so even if they weren’t friends and probably very much employee/employer relationship, the marriage of Jim Crane and Jeff Luhnow was as impactful as the marriage of Jerry Jones and Jimmy Johnson, similar results, and similar result. Life after Luhnow, one championship with Luhnow’s dudes, life after Jimmy, one championship with Jimmy’s guys. Man, we even the ego’s are big in Texas.
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Best Astros owner ever. At this point, perhaps he’s peaked.
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Interesting, quick read. Didn’t know some of this stuff. Like Ohtani’s salary is only $2 million/year until 2034, when it balloons to $68 million.
Bret Saberhagen, Manny Ramirez, Chris Davis still being paid good money.
And Bonilla has TWO of these payments, involving two different teams.
Enjoy.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/49143746/bobby-bonilla-day-2026-new-york-mets-pay-million-every-july-1-deferred-money
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My quibble is that you posit Luhnow built an engine that was going to keep running. He hit some homeruns with the first overall pick in the draft but also blew it twice with Aiken and Appel. He was fortunate to get that compensation pick from Aiken not signing and ended up with Bregman/Tucker the following year. I’ve complained many times that as his tenure went on and our picks fell to the back of the first round his success greatly diminished. He didn’t really trade away any stars to get guys like Verlander and Cole, but certainly the Kazmir and Hader trades need to count against him. I feel like he would have continued trading away prospects and organizational depth putting us in the same position we’re in now.
I don’t disagree with Cam Smith starting with the big club last year. He was really good in the first half – .277/.347/.418. His second half was a disaster and a vacation in Sugarland would have probably paid off.
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That’s a fair ‘quibble’. But we don’t know what we don’t know. He could have crashed and burned in a year or two, for sure. But what we do know is that the game changed for Houston at that point and it was huge.
And the main change agent was Crane. Yes, I agree with dave, that Crane is the best owner in Astros’ history. Can’t argue that…so to blame him for its demise may be unfair. But he’s the leader and, like it or not, the buck stops with him.
What would Luhnow have done differently? Would he have pulled the trigger on trades for Springer, Bregman, et al? Or would he have convinced Crane to ante up and join the big boys?
Take “IT” as Dan calls it out of the equation and the Astros may be in a different place now.
As for Smith, I pushed for him to stay in the majors to start the season, and I even wondered if he’d be the next Altuve or Bagwell, who skipped large parts of the minors. So far, he hasn’t been, unfortunately.
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I know we all like to play “what if” but since we can’t change the past we have to concentrate on the future. As for Brown and Pena, if they have visions of millions of dollars for their services, I say trade them and get the best players/prospects that can be had. If, and that’s a big if, that they want to stay here and play for what would be considered significantly less then let’s make that happen.
I just wonder what the thinking was when we allowed Bregman, Framber, and Springer to walk without trying to trade them for something. Maybe the thinking was we need them to get to the playoffs and further but to me that is significantly short sided. Baseball is a business as much as I don’t like to say it and that was a terrible business decision. And yes we can talk about those “bad” decisions that were made that has been mentioned here.
It would be nice if we can work on getting the right personnel and the right pieces to build a team that can get us to the ride so we can at least get a shot at the “golden ring”.
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I just noticed that Javier will be activated on July 3 and work out of the bullpen. Did I miss this earlier?
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Watching last night I’ve about had it with bad Imai. Good Imai is good. Bad Imai is bad. I would probably take him out of the rotation because I don’t want him reaching 100 IP and those escalators, and I don’t want him losing any more games for me. But we know the Astros are usually patient to the detriment of the team. Trying to squeeze something out of Jose Abreu is one thing though, he plays 1B, and when he isn’t hitting there are 8 other guys batting that might pick him up. Your starting pitcher has a bad day, its usually game over.
But it’s hard to blame just Imai. Blubaugh was tough keeping them in it, and they had two seperate 1st and 2nd with 1 out opportunities and no one got anything done. Once it got to 7-1 it felt over. Feel bad for Delgado, hard hit ball hitting the bag is a middle infielders nightmare, but even outside of that freakish play he really has no business playing SS at a major league level. I don’t even like his 3B play. When they have the towel wrapped around it coming off the field its usually a dislocation.
Last night showed the ugly side of this offense. Diaz has a .619 OPS, Altuve at .684, Loperfido is at .647, Cam is at .684, Allen is at .606, and they were all in the lineup together. It showed. Its tough when you can dependably expect 5 of the 9 spots in the lineup to give you a lot of nothing burgers. Matthews got in last night too – that group combined for a 4-25 with 2 walks. Bradley had 11 K’s.
Loperfido has a serious hole in his game. Every pitcher knows if you get 2 strikes on him go low, out of the zone, with lots of movement and he is going to dive at it 90% of the time. It’s getting pretty consistent, so I’m surprised he isn’t walking up there a little more prepared for it. Maybe he is, maybe someone is telling him, maybe he is watching film, and he just doesn’t have “it”.
Overall, they lose their first series in a significant period. They are back in a race because the division has no villain. They get a much needed day off. They get a red hot – and in first place in the toughest division in the AL – Rays team. Martinez, Rasmussen and Jax will be tough matchups. Our top 3 going so I would expect games to get decided later. If any of our starters have a bad game I don’t expect the Rays to reciprocate and that game will be a loss. Series might come down to who can force a starter out after 5 and get some ABs against a middle reliever.
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Good morning,
Imai is a head case. Maybe that’s not very polite, but at this point his erratic body of work does not point to much else.
I switched over to a very tense and entertaining USA soccer match. Imagine an umpire being responsible for making the decision to throw a guy out of a World Series game that also results in the automatic suspension from the players next game?
Watching our Astros continues to be a real roller coaster ride. Pena to the IL. Delgado on his way. Teng to the IL. Lance topped out at 90.8 last night with the four seamer. Javier to the pen. Blanco working AA ball, without reliable guns to tell us how hard he can throw. Our offense floundering once again. We’re 21-23 at home. Josh Bell hit another dinger, this one Yordanesque.
It’s darn hard to get a streak going and win a batch of baseball games when too often our starters come out and are not competitive. Imai is no friend of the pen.
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