Astros ’26: Open Mic Monday

No theme today. No deadline talk, no roster breakdowns, no five-part series. Just a smattering of thoughts, questions, and opinions rumbling around my brain that don’t deserve their own blog but deserve to be said. Think of it like the old open-mic Friday on talk radio, except it’s Monday and I’m the only caller.

First things first

The Astros won another series, taking three of four from Detroit. That’s five in a row, and six of the last seven series wins. Houston is 15-10 in June (30-24 in May/June), with two to go, and Brown and Hader are pitching like All Stars. At this point, the Astros are not only in the Wild Card and AL West title conversation, but — and don’t shout me down here — they’re only three games back of getting a bye in the first round. What a wacky season.

How Much of the 2027 Season Gets Played?

The CBA expires on December 1; the owners want a salary cap; the union calls it a profanity; and Bruce Meyer has all but guaranteed a lockout. We’ve seen this movie before. The real deadline isn’t December; it’s mid-March when Spring Training is supposed to start. I’ll say 75% of the season gets played. That means we lose April and maybe part of May before somebody blinks. What’s your number?

Will Jose Altuve Make the Hall of Fame?

Carlos Beltrán getting in cracked the door for the 2017 Astros, and Altuve has a stronger case than Beltrán did in my book. The MVP, multiple batting titles, two World Series rings, and closing in on 2,500 career hits. Top 5 in many Astros’ all-time stats. The numbers say yes. But the sign-stealing stain follows him everywhere, and the Hall of Fame voters seem to have long memories and short forgiveness. I think he gets in eventually, but it won’t be first ballot, and the debate could be ugly. What do you think?

Final Win Total for Houston in ‘26?

I’ll go 83. They’re sitting 42-44 about halfway through, which puts them on pace for about 79. I think the second half is better than the first because guys come back from the IL and the schedule gets easier, but maybe not enough to get them to the playoffs. I’m sticking with 83. Tell me I’m wrong.

Who’s the Next Astro to Have His Number Retired?

It has to be Altuve, right? But when? If he retires after this contract, you’re looking at a ceremony in 2031 or 2032. Justin Verlander has a strong case, too. By comparison, Verlander was here seven years, while Nolan Ryan and Mike Scott spent nine seasons here. Ryan’s 34 and Scott’s 33 are hanging in the rafters. Altuve will be there, but will anyone go ahead of him?

Dana Brown’s Best Deal and Worst Deal

  • Best deal: the Kyle Tucker trade. Yes, Tucker was walking after 2025, and Brown’s hand was forced, but he got Paredes, Wesneski, and Cam Smith for one year of a player. He didn’t panic, didn’t take a bad return, and Paredes has been a contributor when healthy. That’s solid work under pressure.
  • Worst deal: the no-deal. Brown came in three years ago, talking about extending young players early before they hit arbitration and free agency. The only extensions he’s completed are Cristian Javier and Altuve. Now Boras represents both Hunter Brown and Jeremy Peña, and those extension windows are effectively shut. You can’t blame Brown for Boras being Boras, but you can blame him for moving too slowly when the window was open.

Old-Timers in the Modern Game

I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately, and I don’t have answers, just questions. But they’re fun ones, so please humor me.

  • Would pitchers like Steve Carlton and Nolan Ryan still throw 300-plus innings (or even high 200s) in today’s environment? With pitch counts, innings limits, and six-man rotations, a 300-inning season is extinct. But would those guys have accepted being pulled after 95 pitches, or would they have told the manager to sit down?
  • Would Tommy Lasorda, Sparky Anderson, Yogi Berra, Earl Weaver, or Tony LaRussa still be big winners in this era? Managing today is driven by analytics, matchup data, and front office directives. Those guys managed on instinct, experience, and their personality. Could they adapt, or would the game pass them by?
  • Could Rickey Henderson steal 130 bases with the new pickoff rules giving runners bigger leads, or would the analytics that tell managers to concede the base take the thrill out of it entirely?
  • Would Sandy Koufax have pitched past 30 with modern sports medicine? Tommy John surgery, PRP injections, load management. Does he get another five years, or was the arm just destined to give out?
  • Could a knuckleballer like Phil Niekro or Tim Wakefield survive the ABS? The knuckleball is inherently unpredictable, and if it misses the zone by a quarter-inch every other pitch, does the automated strike zone kill the pitch entirely?
  • And I mentioned this in the previous post, but no one responded: How would Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux have fared? Those guys built Hall of Fame careers partly on earning calls nobody else got because they could paint corners better than anyone alive. The ABS doesn’t care about your reputation. A quarter-inch off the plate is a ball, period. Fair? Yes. But something got lost.

Add One Retired Astro to This Roster

If you could drop one retired Astro onto the 2026 roster (in their prime), who would it be? Biggio gives you a second baseman who plays every day and never complains. Lance Berkman gives you the left-handed bat they’ve been begging for. Bagwell gives you a first baseman who makes you forget the Walker contract. Oswalt gives you a number-two starter who eats innings and pitches mad. And there’s Dotel-Lidge-Wagner to choose from. There’s no wrong answer, but your pick says a lot about what you think this team needs most. For me, bring back Berkman and put him in CF.

Is Baseball Better or Worse Than It Was Ten Years Ago?

Pitch clocks, the universal DH, robo umps, streaming-only games, teams tanking on purpose, and the Dodgers spending $400M more than everyone else. The games are faster. The strikeouts are higher. The drama personalities bigger. But are you more entertained than you were in 2016? I’m a purist, so I struggle to find the entertainment and satisfaction in the game. You?

Your Turn

That’s the open mic. Agree, disagree, add your own. The comments section is where the real conversation happens.

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17 responses to “Astros ’26: Open Mic Monday”

  1. I agree with your assessment of Altuve’s HOF chances. He will get in, but not on the first ballot. I think what moves him well over the line is his playoff stats – currently 2nd in home runs and 3rd in hits. Hopefully he adds a few more before he’s done.

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  2. Good morning! Dan, how are you feeling? I’m thinking about you.

    Astros down three zip in the top of the 7th, two outs, nobody on and first baseman Colt Keith waves at a throw from third. Free baserunner. Next pitch, Delgado hits one 400 plus feet and the Astros are right back in it. Good team taking advantage of yet another mistake by a rudderless, bad club? Or are the mediocre Astros just playing a bunch of bad clubs? Probably some of both. By the way, has AJ Hinch lost interest? Has he lost his club?

    It’s a sign of the times when I look at the line up and am pleased to see Jose getting a rest day. Seems in comparison to others Altuve already has the stats needed to make the Hall, but could he damage his own cause by trying to play three and a half more years? I cringe too often already. I think there are more important things Jose can do representing the Astros in the community here in Houston and probably more importantly, in Venezuela.

    Jake Meyers is now hitting .143 lifetime with the bases loaded. He’s hitting .111 lifetime as a pinch hitter. I could not let him hit with the bags full in any kind of important situation. I’d never pinch hit him. If Dana finally manages to find that elusive left handed bat in the next month, then Jake should be odd man out. We have other guys that can catch the ball in center.

    De los Santos keeps getting handed the ball. He’s really shaky at this point. Needs rest, a reset, whatever. Alimber is eligible to come back on the 1st. Will he?

    I’m not counting on any of our guys coming back from the IL and having a positive impact. Dana touted that last year and it did not happen. Anything we get from Lance, Reptil, Blanco would be considered a bonus to me. Lance is pretty much a guaranteed negative. And now we’ve got to somehow fix Arrighetti, as least to the point where he can keep his team in games. Hunter still has to find a groove. Teng needs a break. So 83 wins sound realistic. But I don’t think any team deserves to make the post season with 79 losses.

    Tucker apparently has a bad back. But maybe he’s just not the right fit for LA. And Bregman has not done much with the bat since last July. We’ll have to see if he can get hot for the Cubs as he has historically most summers. Framber does not seem to care as much these days. I hope this is the last time I say this, but we could have gotten real talent for Alex and Framber.

    I’m all for ABS. To many lazy umps made too many bad calls. I’d give each team 3 challenges though. The umps should not have cared about reputations. That mentality did not help the game.

    Berkman.

    Chip, like most all of us old coots, I’m a purist. But I’m good with a quicker game. I like the ABS. I don’t like the 10th inning starting with a man on 2nd though. I’d rather play 12 and call it a tie. Thing is, the game will keep changing to keep new generations coming to the park. We are no longer buyers the rules committees and marketing guru’s are focusing on. That’s life.

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    • I’m doing much better daveb – tomorrow I have a root canal which my internist thinks was the infection source for my hospital visit. But just for fun I got to spend Saturday in the ER – for my mom. She is 90 and having some issues right now.

      I absolutely don’t understand why Alimber was sent down in the first place and really don’t understand why he has not been brought back up. The kid was terrific in his cup of coffee.

      De Los Santos is 1) Not as good as he was pitching before 2) Gassed 3) Maybe overexposed

      The Astros have certainly gotten some key assistance from opposing fielders in the last month. On the other hand Delgado booted an easy one that cost a run, but came back and made up for it with his first mlb homer.

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  3. Man – Chip that is a smorgasbord of open mike topics – I’m loving it.

    • I didn’t think the Astros would get back into this race this quick (1 game back in the division / 1/2 game back in the WC) – but I didn’t think the division and the league would be this bad. 15-10 is a solid month, not a barn burner, but in the broadcast yesterday they said it was the top AL record in June. Wacky – yes
    • The 2027 season – both sides will dig in for quite a while. The average mlb salary is $5.3 million in 2026 – the minimum is $780K. Are the players being smart with their finances so they can hold out longer this time? (Not likely). My best guess on return of the game? July 15th. Total guesstimate.
    • Jose won’t make it on the first round of votes even if he revs up his career and gets to 3000 hits. They won’t let him due to “IT”. But I think he will make it after about 3 or 4 years. The MVP, the sterling playoff numbers, the batting titles, All stars, etc.
    • I’m saying the Astros will make it to 86 wins this season. Big if – if they don’t have a series of injuries to critical players…. again.
    • The Verlander case is interesting because though he pitched in 7 seasons for the team – it was closer to 4 seasons of pitching. He came in the trade in 2017 and pitched 1 month of that season. He pitched full seasons in 2018 and 2019. He pitched 6 innings in 2020. He pitched a full season in 2022 and then came in the trade from the Mets and pitched 2 months in 2023 and then really only half a season in 2024 due to injuries. I think he should have his number retired, because he was so critical to the team winning the two championships, but I can see people’s arguments against.
    • Dana’s best deal – yes Tucker trade. Dana’s worst deal – the Carlos Correa trade – not that Carlos performed badly, but we all know the guy was fragile as grandma’s china when he was young, much less now that he’s on the wrong side of 30. And even with Minnesota picking up part of the tab – it is still a lot of money.
    • Old time pitchers – I was texting with my son Adam about Warren Spahn yesterday – he was always my parent’s favorite along with Hank Aaron with the Milwaukee Braves. I knew Spahn had the most wins for a lefty (363), but I did not know that he spent 3-1/2 years in the Army in WWII – so he did not make the majors until he was 26 years old…and still made it to 363. In 1963, at the age of 42 he lost a 1-0, 16 inning, 201 pitch duel with Juan Marichal on a Willie Mays walk-off homer. At 42 he went 23-7 with a 2.60 ERA. That could not happen today. Guys like Carlton and Ryan would have bumped up against things – but when the manager pulls you – what are you going to do? These guys would have laughed at 6 man rotations as they threw in 4 man rotations. Would they have been more effective pitching less? Maybe – maybe not.
    • The manager thing is always an interesting question – I think most of the managers were only as good as their players. They might be able to add 5 wins to a team, but I don’t think they are the only reason teams win or lose. I think they would have been good or better depending on that roster.
    • I’d be sending Rickey to steal as much as possible. But the “stats” guys would be telling the manager to put up stop signs. Tremendous ability bumping up against the Moneyball era.
    • Koufax would have been a huge beneficiary of modern surgery. He was pitching through pain and did not want to do it anymore and today’s TJ surgery would have saved him that. He was the greatest pitcher I got to see live, but such a short career.
    • Knuckleballers…great question. If you are a modern hitter do you just stand there and dare them to try and get it across the plate? Would you use up your challenges too quick because it is tough to tell what nips the corner or not when its moving a foot at the last second?
    • I’d bring back Berkman and put him in the corner outfield spots – he survived in CF, but not his best spot. He could also go sub for Walker at 1B.
    • I like the pitch clock and the ABS – I like bad pitches getting overturned quickly, I like the games going shorter. I hate the extra inning start at second base rule. I hate the Dodgers spending like nuts while most everyone else just spends crazy. I hate missing some of the games because they are on some streaming service that I won’t pay for. I think the game is still fun – I think the off the field money stuff is no fun.

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    • Dan, I probably wouldn’t hold Correa against Dana. I think the good old boys decided to make that move. Just a guess. No proof.

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      • Don’t get me wrong. I’ve had enough of Dana. He has not been able to fix the outfield in three and a half years. I will say though, Cam gives hope when he does what he did tonight.

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  4. Dan, it sounds like you have an overall issue with Dana…I don’t necessarily disagree.

    However, I think we can blame Luhnow for the fact that Crane won’t give his GMs full reign. My theory — and as dave says, ‘no proof’ — is that Crane feels like he got burned and blindsided and is not going to let that happen again.

    He let a guy walk (Click) after winning a WS and now, his current GM is basically a lame duck with a guy looking over his shoulder.

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  5. Baseball is pretty simple when you go out and don’t lose any series. When you have a chance to sweep a bad team I think Espada needs to go for it and not hold back for game 1 of the next series though. You don’t get more points in the standings for beating the Yankees than you do the Mets. The team has shown some grit and certainly taken advantage of mistakes. Keep that going.

    It could get ugly. The rookies don’t have a say in the matter. What does it do to Ohtani’s income if there is no baseball? I assume his endorsements still pay out. We may find out which players have bigger gambling debts than others.

    I think Altuve needs 3000 hits. I agree his postseason resume should be a huge boost.

    I don’t think a final record above 84 wins would be likely. They have to go 42-34 the rest of the way to get there. The final month may have quite a few opponents fighting for a playoff berth – CHW, OAK, SEA, PHI, TB, ATL, AZ. Right now the only layup is KC.

    I hope Verlander’s number isn’t retired. I’m just leaving it at that.

    Best Trade: Kyle Tucker – getting Smith and Paredes back for a one year rental was real value. Worst Trade: Kyle Tucker – we missed the playoffs by one game. Maybe he has another freak injury costing him much of the season in Houston, but I feel confident saying he would have won them a few more games last year.

    Nolan Ryan’s struggles with the modern game would come from players taking more walks. He owns the record for most free passes in addition to most strikeous. If he somehow kept his numbers in a similar ratio in today’s game I think he would have feasted on hitters who have no two strike approach.

    The managers you listed had some awful seasons to go along with their best ones. I doubt they survive some of those downers. I think we’re largely overvaluing how much statistical analysis can move the needle for most of these clubs. Art Howe wasn’t really painted in a fair light in Moneyball and as amazing as that summer’s A’s team was…they never made it to the WS under Billy Beane.

    I didn’t watch enough knuckleballers to have the impression the umps were missing calls on their pitches.

    Maddux and Glavine had the control to hit their spots with regularity. I suspect in today’s game you would often see hitters challenge their pitches early in games and end up burning through them on pitches barely touching the zone. Then they would extend a little more from the zone as the game went on and no more challenges could hurt them.

    Berkman is a great choice. Carlos Beltran would be a great one too. A HOF starter like Randy Johnson might be a better one.

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  6. Sluggish group tonight. They woke up too late. Tough third strike call on Walker in the 9th. He thought he had walked. Looked to me he was getting ready to go to first when the ump rung him up. When he then put this hand to his head, the ump said it was too late. The MLB site shows ball four, clearly up out of the zone. Trammell followed with the two run shot which would have been a three run shot had Walker been given first. Cams second shot would have tied it. Not to be.

    I guess the hitter has to learn to stay in the box and make sure the ump has given him a walk on a full count before taking anything for granted. It might have cost the Astros the ballgame. And it was the first game I’ve seen live since last year. Would have been great to see how a 5-5 game ended.

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    • Turned it off in the 8th. Guess they gave it a run in the 9th. Shame to see the mental side of the game cost them.

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  7. Thoughts

    • Chip – it is interesting that we really don’t hear what Jim Crane is thinking anymore. Not sure when he was last interviewed. What is his feeling about the moves that took us from Luhnow to Click to Brown? I would also be interested to know what Crane’s son’s role is in anything – almost total silence on that since he took over from Reid Ryan.
    • daveb – that was certainly a lesson learned on Walker’s part vs. the ABS system. We don’t know what would have happened if he had walked – would anything have changed in the pitcher’s approach to the next couple of hitters? But sure would have liked to have seen.
    • Lambert’s 4 runs allowed is the most since he gave up 5 runs in a start 6 weeks ago. He has been steady Eddie.
    • Yes – big homers by Cam give us hope – sometimes he seems like he is about to bust out. Trammell with that .275 BA/ .791 OPS should be penciled in somewhere in that lineup every night.
    • Miguel Ullola with 2 scoreless innings and 4 Ks in his debut. Better send him down with Alimber Santa before he actually earns a spot in the bullpen….

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    • They need to walk Josh Bell. He’s the Yordan of Astro enemies. Why does the guy feast on Astro pitching? Cam sure does tease. But he’s got to take control of the strike zone and coax base hits and walks when the situation warrants. The .298 OBP might be his worst stat. Ullola looks like a relatively diminutive guy. He’s either not 6’1″ 205 or my eyes are bad. I am having cataract surgery tomorrow.

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  9. Interesting the division is starting to look like it was predicted. A three team race between the normal 3.

    I’ll take your bet with about 75% of the season played. Just a great question of who blinks. I think baseball does need a cap (and a floor) and some way to improve revenue sharing. No one thinks the Kansas City Chiefs are going away, but the Royals? The Thunder can put together a championship team in the middle of Oklahoma. Other sports are just doing it better.

    Altuve may go in later. It’s hard to say. Voters have always leaned towards monolithic milestone stats. I’m not sure he gets to 3000 hits. Seems kind of silly that you can finish a career at say 2850 hits and no one talks about it, but there is a fixation on a number. To me, his bat was so impactful. He changed the course of a franchise. Defense and baserunning not withstanding, he set the tone. He made it harder on pitchers as he was always finding himself on base. His playoff stats speak for themselves, he was there when the lights were the brightest. But some people just don’t want him there, and without the milestone stat, they will have an excuse. Seems highly unlikely he will get in on the first ballot. Maybe downstream a little. How he finishes will either give or take away an excuse.

    I’m going to take 85. I think there is good baseball in this team. So much of it depends on Walker and Altuve. They have to find the energy to have some moments in the second half. This offense is not threatening to an opposing pitcher. Cam Smith can really help by becoming a plus offensive player. He is hitting a lot better lately. Yordan has struggled in this plus month – imagine he heats back up.

    Verlander – because it seems likely he is playing his final year of baseball. Springer and Altuve won’t be too far behind.

    In defense of Brown he walked into a terrible situation. Montero was still on the books. Heck, Greinke was still getting paid. He didn’t sign Jose Abreu. He didn’t sign Lance McCullers. Bad decisions made him a bargain basement hunter. I’m sure there is a world where the Astros weren’t consistently carrying 60-70M dollars a year in dead money that he could have thrived. Given Tucker a contract. Competed for top free agents. But then, Correa happens. Arenado almost happens. Bregman was given a contract offer that was inexcusable and saved by the Red Sox. Ask the Cubs how they feel about paying Bregman. So I have serious concerns about how he processes.

    When it comes to old timers – the game is different. I think special talents like Maddux and Henderson excel at anytime. The rest, there were probably aspects of the game that fit them. Not only is the 300 inning season dead, the 200 inning season is on life support. Three guys got there last year. And none of them made it to 210. I’m not sure anyone is on pace to do it this year, maybe Alcantara gets there. Sanchez seems like the only player that might repeat. Hitters now, they just sit on things. Maddux used to routinely get out of innings with 10 pitches, or less at times. Now, if you are 65 pitches in at the end of 4, you are “rolling.” Hitters today, they aren’t afraid to strikeout waiting on a pitch to drive.

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