Today, we will play a little game called What Happens When. But as a prelude to that game, here is a little reminder of where the Astros 26-man roster sits today.
- Catchers (2) – Christian Vazquez, Cesar Salazar
- Infielders (5) – Christian Walker, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Pena, Braden Shewmake, Nick Allen
- Outfielders (5) – Cam Smith, Jake Meyers, Taylor Trammell, Brice Matthews, Zach Dezenzo
- DH (1) – Yordan Alvarez
- Starting Pitchers (5) – Spencer Arrighetti, Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows, Peter Lambert, Kai-Wei Teng,
- Relief Pitchers (8) – Bryan King, Bryan Abreu, Stephen Okert, A.J. Blubaugh, Enyel De Los Santos, Nate Pearson, Alimber Santa, Logan VanWey
The tail end of the starting and relief pitching is quite fluid, as the team is making moves every few days. But this is where we stand on May 29.
Now let’s play the game.
What Happens….
- When Josh Hader returns? (Which is likely in the next week) Hader threw what might have been his last rehab appearance on the 28th, giving up 3 runs in 2/3 of an inning. His ERA has been 7.36 in his rehab to date. When he shows up, the Astros will slide the last man on the totem – likely VanWey back to Sugar Land. Joe Espada will likely put him back in the closer’s role, which may be shaky for a while.
- When Joey Loperfido returns? (Touted to be in early June). In his short stint earlier this season, Loperfido had a solid slash of .276 BA/ .348 OBP/ .711 OPS playing mostly LF with a little CF sprinkled in. Since Trammell is hitting so well, I would expect Dezenzo to be sent down and expect Joey to head back to LF (mostly).
- When Hunter Brown returns? (Expected to be mid-June) This will be interesting. Will they go to a 6-man rotation in which case they will send down the low man on the relief totem pole – likely Santa. If they go to a 5-man rotation – who moves from the rotation back to a long relief/swing man spot in the bullpen? Lambert or Teng? Tough choice.
- When Yainer Diaz returns? (Stated to be in June and likely late June) Well, yes, they will send Salazar back down, but beyond that….I have been very vocal that I want Vazquez to be the starter now, due to the way he is handling this patched together pitching staff. At worst I would want a 50/50 split. Diaz is not deserving of the starting spot without returning to the hitter he was a couple seasons ago.
- When Jose Altuve returns? (Slated for some time between mid-June and late-June) I guess Shewmake goes and Allen stays, but I say that without checking if either have options. Jose will go back into the starting lineup, and we will hope that he will hit better.
- When Cristian Javier returns? (Estimated to be late June – maybe) I don’t see a spot for him, but who knows who may be ailing by then. They sure can’t use him if he pitches like he did before the injury. Does he get a DFA? With the Astros owing him about $14 million for the rest of this season and $21 million for 2027 it is hard to see him dropped.
- If Lance McCullers returns? (Shown as TBD right now) The gut feel is that he will never pitch for the Astros again. But if he does come back from his latest injury at some point, is there really a spot for him?
- If Bennett Sousa returns? (Shown as TBD right now) He’s a lefty who has pitched effectively for the Astros as recently as 2025 (5-1, 2.84 ERA, 4 saves). But he has had a lot of injury time – missing all of 2024 and the end of 2025 and it is as likely he will go under the knife as return in 2026.
- If Ronel Blanco returns? (Expected in the second half of the season) See below….
- If Hayden Wesneski returns? (Expected in the second half of the season) Both Blanco and Wesneski have progressed to throwing in the bullpen at West Palm Beach (spring training site) after both undergoing Tommy John surgery within two weeks of each other last year. The “If” in front of each of the pitchers has to do with the general recovery from surgery for anyone. It is not a straight line. Often, they face setbacks. In this case, how would the Astros use them if they returned? Impossible to say right now. By the time they return, there might not be a starting spot for them. There might be spots due to other’s injuries. There could be more pitchers in the mix after the trade deadline. Some pitchers who look good now (Lambert? Teng?) could fall off by then. This will be a fascinating situation to observe.
In the end – this is not a game – it is a serious situation that will effect quite a few spots on the roster and the careers of the men involved. Dana Brown and likely Joe Espada will have to navigate these difficult waters. But having too many talented players is better than too few.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
13 responses to “Astros 2026: What happens when….”
It’s probably not fair, but second to the Abreu freakout in the 8th, that bloop throw in the direction of third by Jake in the 10th sure hurt. Even old guys with bad legs run on Jake.
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Now on my second cup of Joe, I’m looking at our Spotrac active payroll. It looks so hopeful!
Ironically, high on my list is Teng at 787K. Cam Smith, our defensive All Star, acting like he might stat hitting, at 810K. Shewmake 780K. Santa 780K. Matthews at 782K. If he was playing center in the 10th, Yelich does tag and get to third. In all fairness though, Brice also provided a totally uncompetitive at bat in the 9th. Dezenzo 790K. Blubaugh, 790K. Give him the 8th inning and stop trying to get more than 3 outs from him. King 800K. Give him a rest though. Burrows, 800K. Arrighetti 820K, presently the best bargain in MLB? De Los Santos 1.6 million. Okert 2.3 million.
These are just a dozen guys that I think can contribute at a modest cost going forward.
There are some duds. Weiss is getting 5 million. Hire that agent! Imai 17 million. Javier 21 plus million. Lance 18 million. Yainer gets a dud at 4.5 million. Abreu 5.9 million. Jake 3.5 million. Right now, Issac is a semi dud at 9.35 million. And like it or not, our biggest dud at 33 million is our beloved Jose Altuve.
But overall, 2026 looks hopeful, with some really cheap talent that will finally do something going forward.
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That said, 2027 looks kind of rough. We’re already paying 177,500.00 out to nine guys.
Altuve
Yordan
Javier
Correa
Walker
Hader
Imai
Paredes
Weiss
It leaves us without a whole lot of payroll flexibility once again. The next two months might give us an indication of what the powers to be with this club will do in preparation for 2027. More likely, the next two months will tell us nothing.
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When Mathews came up with the bases loaded in the 8th and only one out, he did what I would have bet on. He struck out on three pitches. He seems overwhelmed when a good pitcher is facing him. His issues with contact needs to be worked on at Sugarland,. Also DaveB7, how many years is Weiss signed for?
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Hi Larry. As far as Brice goes, I covered myself on that rotten at bat. You know I think any of our outfielders except for Jake would have had Yelich holding at second. Spotrac says we owe Weiss 5 million in 2027 too.
Mathews is actually an ML hitter on the road, with a .750 OPS and a quality 10/23 BB/K. At home, he’s an A ball hitter with a .339 OPS and 1 walk to go along with 27 K’s. The short sample is growing to the point where I wish someone would ask him why he has hit on the road but is hopeless at home.
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Larry, upon further review it looks like the 5 million for Weiss in 2027 is a club option. That’s good news.
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Thoughts
Totally with you on that noodle arm throw by Jake in the 10th – sorry – he jest needed to throw it semi-hard but on a line and accurately. He did none of those things
Santa threw well enough to prevent the run in the 10th
Two non-competitive at bats were hopeful – both Brice’s and then of all people – Yordan in the 10th – totally surprised they pitched to him – totally surprised he went down looking
Teng pitched fine – but that walk – homer combo got him
Abreu coming out of the pen and missing everything – very discouraging
Need them to snap out of it and win today
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Today’s (5/30) lineup… why is Espada putting Trammell in at cleanup???? After seeing him put Abreu in that leverage spot last night, he really needs a mental rest.
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Trammell has been hot. I would have just left him where he’s been hot! You never know, Joe might be getting a print out of the suggested line up for the day.
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Dan, back to your post of yesterday afternoon. These roster issues always seem to work themselves out when the time comes, rarely affecting a guy on the 26 man that has been playing great ball.
With Hader coming back, maybe that will provide the luxury of trying something different with Abreu, like sending putting him on the IL. How come he’s only throwing 94 instead of 98-99? On the flip side, maybe Hader will help him where others have failed.
Maybe Shewmake is going on the IL with a groin issue. That’ll make room for Altuve. Jose already seems to be rushing himself back. Does not want to waste time with rehab starts in the minors. Unfortunately, in the outfield, it looks like Zach is odd man out again. I sure want to see him get a longer look at some point.
I don’t know what happens when Hunter gets back, but let’s see what Imai is doing at that point in time.
I’m totally good with Yainer splitting time with Vazquez. I don’t think we want to overwork Vazquez though. He’ll probably be ready for a lighter load when Diaz returns.
Javier and Lance? Seems that Lance started tossing today. Unless there are injuries, I just don’t see a roster spot for him. Javier, maybe the pen. But what if Alimber is real? Good problem to have. Same with Sousa, Blanco and Wesneski. We have not had much luck with guys coming back from major surgery and having success. But we do typically end up with a shortage of pitching.
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Shades of 2024. As Yogi used to say, it’s deja vu all over again!
Astros are 15-13 in May with one day to go. They were 15-14 in May in 2024 and pushed on to the AL West title. To match their 88-73 record of that year, though, the Astros would need to go 61-40 (check my math). That’s .604 the rest of the way. There are only two other AL teams playing .600 ball right now.
In fact, there are only five teams at .500 or above. Sheesh. Could the Astros take the AL West with 84-85 wins? Talk about parity!
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To get to .500 by the AllStar break the Astros have to go 22 and 15 to get to .500. That’s a .594%. If I were a betting man I would probably bet against the team but I’m not so I hope they can pull it off. Seattle is starting to pull away in the west so we’ll look at this over the next couple of weeks to see how things play out.
On a brighter note the Carolina Hurricanes are going to the NHL finals against the “Lost Wages” Knights. Should be a good series. Hoping for a Canes Stanley Cup.
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Good morning.
Imai has had two very good outings in a row.
Is Cam Smith starting get it?
Alimber Santa looks pretty good over his first 15 batters.
We lost the series on Friday night.
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