When Jim Crane took over the Astros, brought in GM Jeff Luhnow, and cut the budget and the team back to the studs (well, not athletic studs), there seemed to be a plan. It was not always plain that it was a good plan, and many doubted that Crane would ever go from a bottom-feeder’s budget to a contending budget, but at least it seemed like there was a plan.
That plan included draining the team of talent and salary, losing 100 games three seasons in a row, and then rising up with internally raised players, international bargains, technical innovations, and finally veteran muscle from outside the organization. This led to a decade of sustained excellence that included four World Series appearances and two championships.
Deep down, most of us suspected that the “Plan” that led to success was not sustainable. And losing the architect of the rebuild due to the cheating scandal seemed to be the first step away from the top. Yes, the Astros won the 2022 Championship after Luhnow left, but the title was won with practically everyone Luhnow brought into the organization and developed.
The firing of James Click and the “Lost Weekend” of no general manager resulting in the Jose Abreu, Rafael Montero and Michael Brantley signings seemed to signal an organization without a true vision.
It is hard to know at this point what the ” Plan ” is for the Astros.
- If the plan is to win now, why would you bring in so many pitching question marks to anchor the starting rotation?
- If the plan is to build a sustainable, long-term success, why throw that money at Jose Abreu and Christian Walker? Yes, I know Walker has been very good to begin this season, but he sure was not last year.
- If the plan is to fall somewhere between sustainable and win now – have they really worked towards that?
Many of the questions for this season relate to having lame ducks as GM and manager. GM Dana Brown and Manager Joe Espada are in the last season of their contracts and if you believe that does not color their decision-making, you are naïve.
If Jim Crane decides to abandon ship on this version of the Astros and be a seller, does he want a guy whose vision is focused on the finish line this season, making those decisions? If he decides to have his GM be aggressive at the trade deadline, does he expect him to be thinking about the future of the team beyond 2026 when he chooses who to use as trade bait?
The same thing with the day-to-day decisions in the dugout. Is Espada making decisions that are the best for players and especially pitchers long term, or is he trying to stave off the job grim reaper in every move he makes?
Is there a five-year plan with this team? A one-year plan?
If the team does not turn things around this season, we will likely have a new manager and a new general manager. But hopefully those new faces will have a new plan.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
18 responses to “Astros 2026: What’s the plan?”
Dan, I’ve been leaning heavily to it’s time to cut bait and start over fresh.
Then, I look at the AL standings this morning and I’m stunned!
• There are only FOUR teams in the AL with winning records (compared to 8 in the NL).
• Houston is only TWO games out of the Wild Card right now.
• The Astros are 4-3 in May after an 8-18 in April.
• Only 11 games separate the Yankees (on pace to win 108 games) and last-place Angels.
• The Astros play two more “losers” (losing record) at HOME over the next several days, so talk to me after the series with Texas midway through May.
Yes, there are myriad stats and anecdotal evidence that this is a bad team, especially considering the injuries. We’ve chronicled (see what I did there, Dan) them well here.
But if you’re looking at the big picture like Crane likely is, you’d be stupid not to wait it out and see if you can get Brown, Hader, and a few others back and/or somehow find another key pickup in the next couple of months.
One or two of those sub-.500 teams are going to turn it around, and you know that the Astros’ brain trust (okay, shoot down my choice of words) is thinking they can still be one of those turn-around teams!
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Yeah before the Reds game they were talking about how the Reds were two games over .500 but in last place – whereas they would be at the top of our division
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So at this rate they would be 8 back of the WC and over 20 back in the division (the worst division in baseball). If there were any calvary coming I’d say hold on until Brown and Pena back but even with those guys back they just aren’t a even average MLB team.
Crane needs to decide. Dana Brown is not a good GM, Crane himself destroyed the team with all the bad contracts. He needs to get a plan on how to rebuild or will he just open up the budget to get real talent in here? Time to do something or get off the pot and sell the team to an owner who will.
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The question I see is, do the Astros continue with what players they have this season in hopes of getting to the playoffs and continue their regression through the nest five seasons or do they sell at the deadline, and suffer with a losing season next year and rise back to the top for the following 4+ years?
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If there is a plan, the plan has been deviated from. Carlos Correa is an example. I think Imai is an example. Walker might have been an example.
Today we have three outfield positions, all in question. Will anyone stick out there over the next three years? At first base we have a 35 year old guy that had a tough year in 2025 and has recovered to play the best offensive baseball of his career in 2026. At some point, there will be correction. Regardless of what Walker does in 2027, is there a plan for first base going forward? We have a plan for second base. It is to play our declining potential Hall of Fame candidate there for the next three years, unless……
We don’t have a plan for shortstop. Jeremy Pena could conceivably be playing his last baseball as an Astro in 2026 if 2027 becomes a lost season. Regardless, he’s gone in 2028 because the Astros will not pay him what others will.
At third base, we have Isaac Padres. Will the Astros elect to pay him 13 million in 2027 to keep him on the roster? Will Carlos Correa be ready to play in 2027 for his 21 million? And will we get anything close to 21 million in value from him in 2028?
What happens behind the plate? Our injured starting catcher has a 67 OPS+ YTD. Is he our future?
We have the best DH on the planet. But is he too valuable for this team to hold onto? Do we make room at the DH position to get our declining second baseman off second base?
I really have not thought about pitching yet. But we do not have a single position player that any of us can say with definitely own a role on this club for the next three years, much less two. What’s the plan?
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I hate to say it but I think it’s time to consider this a lost season. Yes it’s early but I see no silver lining in this cloud except maybe getting struck by lighting. I guess we’ll know more after the Texas and Seattle series for sure. Eight home games against teams not much better than us. If we can’t play at least .500 ball then it’s time to turn out the lights. Right now we’re playing at a .342 pace for April/May. I have no idea what Crane is thinking but I think he’ll definitely look at selling the team before the value plummets to far. I don’t think he wants to go through another rebuilding process. Personally, if we go scorched earth then Alvarez, Pena, Brown, Walker, and Hader will all be on the trading block. I don’t think that we will be able to postpone the inevitable that’s coming our way but I could be wrong. It was fun while it lasted but sometimes your number is up.
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daveb – I think you hit on a very critical item when discussing the “Plan” – what players are part of a longer plan and which ones are not. Through most of this last decade the roster was a combination of players that would be around a while and those who would be here a shorter term. As you pointed out most of the position players could easily be gone in a couple years. Pitching is harder to figure because we have so many players we don’t want to be around a long time….
Z – I would be surprised if Crane sells the team – but that may depend on how much his son (who seems to be the invisible man) wants to be involved with the team long term.
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Yeah Dan, I really can’t begin to express thoughts on the pitching. In my head right now is whether or not Hunter and Hader can come back and be as effective as they were. Or are they just going to be patched up until the real shut down for more than a year injury happens?
All I can say is that we have so many question marks at the mound. I do think these next seven games will be enlightening, even though we’re only in mid May.
You know, maybe there is plan. Maybe the plan is that there will be no long strings attached to any player, outside of Altuve and Correa. Let’s face it. The Astros could change out most all of the roster pretty quickly, holding into the young guys playing for the minimum or close to it and moving everyone else.
I’m probably looking too far ahead, but I’m wondering who or what group (oh no! ) of club experts would oversee a roster rebuild.
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This team is not rebuilding, at least in 2026. I can’t see them being sellers. Whether they should be is subjective, I think they should consider it, but there doesn’t seem to be even a whisper of it. I would think other than people I don’t hold a lot of respect for their opinions like Bob Nightengale suggesting it I haven’t heard a whisper from anyone that is a credible source. Seems they are content on blaming injuries. Again, I would remind people, he would lose a lot of money. Hader isn’t tradeable. Correa isn’t tradeable. Altuve, Javier, there are guys no one is going to take off your hands. There are one or two salary reliefs you could do, but the only guys bringing you value – Yordan and Hunter. Pena and Paredes can probably bring better than 50% lottery tickets, but not necessarily future stars. Even Yainer might be worthy of someone’s 19 year old Kevin Alvarez type, but maybe not. With the salaries he has left to pay he simply can’t burn it down and see 10k attendance unless he pays it. Jim Crane is not a multi-billionaire, matter of fact I believe he has the largest amount of his personal net worth tied to his baseball team than any other owner at the top half of the league in salary obligations. The Astros have to be profitable. Until Steve Cohen decides the Mets are a lost cause, sells, and buys the Astros, we have to live with ownership that can’t lose money.
And that is the crux of all of this. Mauricio Dubon is a victim of it how the Astros make decisions based on money versus result. I know, Dubon was aggravating to people who think if you don’t have a .775 OPS we need to move on. But I’m telling you, as many baseball games are lost by dropped fly balls by Cam Smith as are running up the score in a 14-1 win and going 3-4 with a homer and a double and 3 RBI. Mauricio Dubon wasn’t the fastest, but he was an intelligent baserunner. He didn’t walk but he didn’t strikeout. He could win a gold glove at 4 positions, and play the other 3 better than average. You need baseball IQ on your roster, not losing baseball games because Brice Matthews boots a grounder at 3B in extra innings or Cam Smith puts the throw ahead of the catch. But 7 million just seemed to much to the money people because of his OPS. So you get Nick Allen.
Do I trust the Houston Astros to make good decisions? No. So I don’t trust this leadership conglomerate to reset and make good trades. Besides, only two guys on your roster are attractive enough to bring back actual return, and one of them is injured.
The list is long with this franchise and recent decisions. Brantley should be healthy, sure. Montero, shut down reliever. Never mind the White Sox don’t seem to be interested in matching a pretty easy to match offer for their MVP, all star and fan favorite 1B, we are getting a real bargain here boys. Nolan Arenado saved them from themselves, but then they went and traded for 3 years and 65M of Carlos Correa’s future for an injury prone 3B when they already had a 3B. Hunter Brown is the last star they have created from their system. They currently have one position player on the AAA roster below the age of 25. ONE – and its the back up catcher. The average age of their AAA roster is over 28. They let guys leave for nothing, until the Tucker deal. And it turns out, Cam Smith, who is sub .200 since July of last year, isn’t what we bargained for, and probably rushed him. Just more bad decisions. An owner that has to watch the corners still writes Zach Greinke a check for 12.5M this year so we could get 52 starts over 2 and a half seasons – guys those were 52 important starts! They were, but how important?
Not only am I ready for Dana Brown to go, he can take Joe Espada, most of the coaching staff, the CFO, and anyone tied to baseball decisions with them. Take the medical department with you. And the strength and conditioning staff. Matter of fact, Mr. Crane, please sell this team to an owner that will make baseball decisions like releasing LMJ today and stop making everything about money.
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Other than the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets intending to spend whatever it takes are there any clubs that really do have a plan? The plan should be to build the strongest farm system possible and trade the players blocked at the major league level to fill those holes on the MLB squad. Look at our drafts. It’s too early to tell on 2025. 2024 appears to have been a lost year. 2023 was a bust. I’m hopefuly Blubaugh, Cole, and Dezenzo can be major leaguers from 2022, but I don’t expect any to be a star. 2021 rests on Arrighetti. 2020 was a bust. 2019 got us Hunter Brown and 2018 was Pena. 2017 was actually a really strong draft for Houston where we ended up trading the players down the line and injuries derailed a few guys.
You probably see where I’m going with this. I thought Click was supposed to b a develop the farm system guy. Brown was touted as such when he came from Atlanta. We don’t even have organizational depth and a lot of our minor leaguers will be selling used cars this time next summer. I can’t criticize signing an Abreu, Walker, Imai, etc., when they are clearly better than what we have on the farm. We can complain about length of contract or dollar amount, but it’s not like they came in and blocked a legit major leaguer. We had our concerns last summer, but they went on enough of a run to make us believe another chance in the postseason was in the cards. I think if Crane waived the white flag last summer he loses the Houston fanbase. But…we’re 5.5 games behind an A’s club that won’t stay in first all year. We’re 3.5 games out of a wild card spot despite only having a better record than the Mets. I think the organizational plan is to just try to tread water and at least make it look like you’re trying to compete.
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Well, if there is a good chance of not having any revenue in 2027, then there might be the chance that Crane the businessman would move to lower his labor costs.
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Dan, I’m sticking with my first comment on this post.
I’m not saying this is what *I* would do, but I am suggesting it’s what the Astros are thinking inside their inner circle.
While they may not be fully committed at this point, they have to be leaning solidly into buying and not selling.
How does an owner and organization give up in this situation when they have dominated the league for so long? It’s not in their DNA.
Yes, the next month will tell the tale and you have to believe the league will sort itself out, but there are still only four teams at .500 or above…and the fourth is only *barely* (Cleveland at .500)!
I mean, getting Brown and Hader back alone could help separate Houston from the rest of the morass that is the AL.
Yes, I’m not overlooking the fact that the Astros are next-to-last in the league and that 2027 could be a lost season. It seems like a perfect set up to clean house and start fresh with younger, ready-to-start-their-career players who could set up the organization for another run.
I just don’t see Crane (and thus Brown), throwing in the towel.
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I have to agree. I don’t think it’s in Crane to start over. Plenty of teams have gone down the rebuilding route only to never leave it.
No, you have Yordan Alvarez. Hunter Brown. Jose Altuve. Jeremy Pena. You have stars. You have pieces like Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to help, you have Josh f’n Hader closing games for you by mid-June. This division can be had with 87 wins is my guess. I mentioned this a few days ago – at that time it was .581 ball, now it would be .586, so you don’t all of a sudden have to morph into a .600 team. Start by focusing on this next week. 4-3 is a must, 5-2 would be nice.
Imai has to pitch well. 5 innings, 2 walks or less, 2 runs or less. Burrows has to pitch more like Friday and less like the rest of the year. Doesn’t have to be 7 shutout, just don’t throw 3 shutouts then give up a 5 spot in the 4th. Spencer has to put dropped fly balls out of his mind and focus on staying in command of that electric curveball.
I would immediately get LMJ off this roster. Have a bobblehead day, do a remember 2017 marketing spot, pay the man his money, just let him root on his teammates from his living room like the rest of us. At the end of the season offer him a job if he wants to continue to be a part of the Astros, he is, to me, royalty. But injuries have ended other careers. It just is what it is. And I really can’t stand the “well they got no one else” mentality, heck Miguel Ullola can come up here and give up 6 runs in 4 innings and at least have a learning experience.
But the biggest thing they can do is find a guy more suited to handling these pitchers than Espada. Cody Bolton goes out in relief yesterday and gets roughed up. Teng goes out as a starter and gets roughed up. It’s tough to pitch when defined roles keep changing, and they ask you to just switch what you are doing on a whim, and then switch back. After Blubaugh saved Teng’s 4th inning I was sure he was going to be asked for another inning after throwing 21 pitches to get through the mess. Luckily he did not. His line continues to be outstanding in short work. His problems are almost always the 2nd or 3rd inning. Then comes the guy who had been preparing himself to be a starter out of the pen and ouch. Poor Cody.
Teng now has 5 ER in 5 IP as a starter. He has a 7.50 ERA anytime he faces more than 9 batters – and it’s been the second time through that’s tripped him up. He is your “bridge guy”, and, to be honest, he reminds me a lot of Peacock in shape of the pitch. But I think Brad had more command of supplemental pitches, 3rd and 4th pitches, that allowed him to see a guy twice. But you got him, 2 IP anytime you need it, and you are just experimenting. When a guy is having success, and you are not overall, don’t set the guy up for failure. Keep doing success.
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I can’t disagree either. Crane has never been a seller. But yeah, considering everything, including a likely lock out in 27, heck, I don’t think there is a better time for the Astros to take the plunge and try to build that new foundation. Long shot though, to our detriment.
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Lambert pitched well. Kirby is tough though. The Astros put themselves in opportunities, and just couldn’t take advantage. You don’t get many opportunities against Kirby. They did a great job spitting on some pitches and running up his pitch count. It’s the kind of loss you can’t really do anything but tip your cap to George Kirby. Not getting the kids the Mariners sent out there and then having Yordan strike out representing the tying run in the 9th against a struggling closer were both disappointing but the Astros don’t have a lot of length in the lineup right now.
You’re going to lose some of these especially against the pitching of the Mariners. At least it wasn’t a pitcher giving up a 5 spot in the 4th inning. You live with losses where there were opportunities, it’s just a question of keeping yourself in those spots and guys will come through. You can’t get opportunities down 7-0 in the 5th inning.
If we are looking for a good start from Imai to try and build his confidence this Mariners offense in our park is probably his best opportunity.
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Bad time for Yordan to be making an inevitable correction at the plate. Gosh, that last swing and a miss was 8 inches off the outside of the plate.
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He last played LF on May 5. Before that, Apr 30th. Before that, it was roughly every 4th day. The more he is out of the field, the worse he hits. I would just shrug about it if this wasn’t a career pattern with him.
He’s also played all 42. I would like to see a day off, maybe Thursday, so he has a night game Wed, and a night game Fri, giving him a full 48 hours.
But, yea, inevitably, a slump would come. He wasn’t going to hit .335 or .340 for a season.
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Funny (well not that funny) how baseball goes. The Astros pounding the ball in April and can’t get anyone out. They turn the page and…
Tonight is a huge game in that they need a win to keep them from further burying themselves in the AL West – but more important they need Imai to be a contributor – he has the talent to give them something they need desperately – another strong arm in the rotation. I think we would all take 5 innings – 3 runs at this point.
Altuve – two hits to center – one to right center and got robbed on a shot down the third base line – when he a) Lays off balls and b) Hits up the middle or to right field – he is all of a sudden tough.
The inevitable slide back for Yordan, Walker, Vazquez is happening. No way they could stay that hot. Need Pena back – need Imai to produce – need Hader and Hunter back. Can they stay in touch until they get the wounded back?
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