Last place in the AL West, worst record in the AL. Rotation in shambles. A 17 percent shot at October. And December 1, 2026 coming like a freight train.
If you’ve been following, you know what that date means: CBA expiration, a potential work stoppage, and a 2027 season that could go away before it starts. That changes everything about how the Astros should think between now and the trade deadline. You can’t play this like a normal year, and you can bet that the organization has had some of these conversations.
The Saints kicked the can for years. Restructures, cap gymnastics, creative accounting. And then everything came home to roost at once. The Astros can’t be the Saints. Three roads are in front of this franchise, and Jim Crane needs to pick one.
Notice I didn’t say, Dana Brown. This decision is above Brown’s pay grade, and only Crane can write this script.
Quick picture before we get into it: ~$220 million in 2026 tax payroll. Altuve still gets $59 million after this year. Yordan is signed through his year 31 at $26.3 million per season (through 2028). Correa is back, but his 2029-2032 years are vesting options, which I’m not sure will actually vest. Walker at $20M through 2027. Hunter Brown, the one real ace on the staff, under team control through 2028. Farm system thin. CBA clock ticking.
Now, here are the three roads the Astros could take.
Option 1: Burn It Down
Full sell. Trade Yordan. Trade Brown. Strip the roster and build for what’s next. If you genuinely believe the dynasty window is closed, stop pretending it isn’t. Loyalty to a fading era isn’t a virtue.
Yordan is hitting .358 with 11 home runs and a 1.220 OPS. That’s peak trade value, and contenders with empty bank accounts don’t grow on trees. Brown at $5.71 million with three years of team control is a prize any front office in baseball would mortgage the future to get. You move them now, while the market is this good, and you collect the haul the Astros’ thin farm system is desperately missing.
The problem: Yordan’s no-trade clause covers ten clubs starting next year, so you don’t fully control the exit ramp after this season. And if 2027 leads to a work stoppage, those prospects you get keep playing in the minors. Only the 40-man roster is typically affected in a strike/lockout. In other words, the minor league system doesn’t lose ground, so you want as many players to make progress as possible.
Certainly a lot of upside and a lot of risk, especially for those of us who were around during the lean years just over a decade ago.
Option 2: Hold the Line
Be patient. Brown, Pena, and Hader aren’t dead; they’re hurt, and hurt players come back…most of the time. Yordan is lighting up the league, and the AL West isn’t pulling away. A team that’s 11-18 in April can be a .500 club by June if the rotation gets healthy, and a .500 club in this division in July is very much alive.
There’s a CBA case for this, too. If 2027 gets wiped out by a work stoppage, you don’t want to be mid-rebuild with nothing to show for it. A healthy core that survives the lockout and competes in 2028 is worth something.
This option is a huge gamble if the cavalry doesn’t arrive. You burn half the season waiting, collect nothing, and end up right back here in September with an empty farm and a non-playoff roster. Safe plays and treading water don’t often win championships. They delay the hard conversations, and those conversations get even harder.
Option 3: The Hybrid
Parts of Option 1. Parts of Option 2. All of it is done proactively, before the market decides for you.
Keep Brown. Pursue a 3-year, $75 million bridge deal that buys out his arb years plus one free agent year, letting him hit the market at ~30. Boras won’t give away free agency cheap, but he does build bridges when both sides win. The Astros get their ace locked in through the CBA chaos. Brown gets a massive payday now and tests the market young. You do this before a new CBA potentially resets pitcher salaries even higher.
Watch Yordan for six more weeks. If he still has that 1.200 OPS into June, you pick up the phone. You find him a new destination, and you collect the haul this organization needs. Two-plus years at $26 million annually is a gift for any contender. Given his fragile knees and injury history, his value may never be this high again.
Meanwhile, pursue Jeremy Peña aggressively. Boras is his agent now, and we’ve seen how this story ends when the Astros wait. Alex Bregman is in Chicago. Lock up Peña before the CBA freeze makes it impossible, and before Boras controls every inch of the negotiation. And Walker, at $20 million, is worth a call to contenders needing a first baseman. You won’t love the return, but every prospect helps when the cupboard is this bare.
This is the Saints’ opposite. You’re not kicking the can. You’re building the next version of this team while the current one is still breathing, and you’re doing it before the December 1 deadline locks everything in place.
Five Questions for you
1. If Yordan is still hitting .320 with 20 home runs in June, do you pull the trigger and trade him? Or is that the one move that’s simply off the table for you, no matter what?
2. Hunter Brown’s agent is Scott Boras. Given what happened with Bregman and what’s happening with Peña, do you trust the Astros to get this extension done? Or is Brown already gone after 2028?
3. If baseball loses the 2027 season to a work stoppage, which of these three options looks the smartest in hindsight?
4. Is this Houston Astros dynasty over? And if it is, does this front office have the courage to admit it?
5. Dana Brown has a decision to make. What would you do?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
35 responses to “Astros’ troubles: 3 roads out of the rubble”
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dave, it’s hard to project a 3-year deal for Hunter, but I don’t think $75 million is crazy. Under normal/current circumstances, he’d likely get $9 million in ’27 and ~$14-$15 in ’28, so $25 per would be an uptick for sure. Nonetheless, a 3-year deal similar (maybe higher $$$?) would add certainty for him and still set him up for a big payday at 30.
The Astros are insane, negligent and asleep at the wheel if they don’t give it a shot though, IMO.
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Chip, in retrospect, it’s fair money, you’re right about that. But it’s generally not a favored tactic of Boras.
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dave, you may be right that it’s unlike Boras…though he’s done a couple deals this spring with young players that bought out a couple FA years. Different situation, though, to be sure.
While it may be a long shot, I will stick with my guns on this statement though:
The Astros are insane, negligent and asleep at the wheel if they don’t give it a shot though, IMO.
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Another manager fired, this one in Philadelphia. Cora was the first.
Will this egg on Crane to make a change?
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The Red Sox were supposed to compete and are 12-17.
The Blue Jays were supposed to compete and are 12-16.
The Orioles were supposed to compete and are 13-15.
The Mariners were supposed to win our division and are 14-16 (because they swept us).
The Mets were supposed to compete and are 9-19.
The Phillies were supposed to compete and are 9-19. The Brewers thought they’d win the division, but are 14-13 and in last place.
The Astros…oof, they’re 11-18.
1. What happens between now and Memorial Day? I think you only trade Yordan for a king’s ransom. They need to consider what a work stoppage in 2027 would mean for the assets received in that trade as well. Someone signed through 2027 might be a 4 month rental.
2. Brown is not signing a team friendly deal. Why are we talking about retaining Pena, though? We would have to pay him far more than he is worth. I think he’s great and would love to have him in Houston, but he’s got it in his head that he needs to be paid like Dansby Swanson or Francisco Lindor. He shouldn’t be.
3. A work stoppage makes option 3 the smartest – get some assets but don’t leave your fans remembering an absolutely putrid product as they enter a long winter of no baseball.
4. There was no dynasty. There was an extended run of excellence that resulted in two WS championships separated by 5 years and two losses in WS where the Astros should have absolutely won and blew it. The window is over. Your best bet is a year where the team is competitive enough to catch fire in September/October and make a run at a third championship. Most likely we’re looking at a team that is battling for a playoff spot the last week of the season if *everything* goes right the rest of the way.
5. I’m leaning towards number 3. No one wants to do a fire sale. I want to enjoy watching real major leaguers even if we don’t win every game…but we absolutely have to find a way to get some real prospects in our minor league system.
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Daveb7 is fully prepared for the fire sale.
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Devin if the Astros cleaned house, and again, it would be a pleasant surprise to me if Crane were to bless such a change in direction, the club would not be looking to take on any talent with soon expiring contracts. For guys like Yordan and Brown and Pena, they’d be going after all controllable talent for years down the road.
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I believe it should be your in, or your out. I don’t like the idea of making just one or two trades.
If you are in, Yordan, Hunter, Isaac, JP3 all should net something. Yordan and Hunter especially have to hit, they would have to bring the backbone of a rebuild. Again, its a question if we trust Dana Brown, and I don’t. Or Jeff Bagwell.
Its not 2010 though. You aren’t going to lose 100 games 3 years in a row. This lineup will still have Altuve, Correa, Walker, Cam, the rotation still has some bite with Burrows, Imai (at least the rest of this year), maybe you can move Abreu, maybe you can’t, you will still have Hader if decides he is going to pitch this year. Probably a .450-.470 team, probably not a 100 loss team. I’m assuming 2027 is a no go, and a 2028 roster with 5-6 young guys from these trades ready to join are going to help, as well as Blanco and Wesneski.
But – I’m not sure thats where we are. Just revisit it 1 July.
As for Hunter Brown and Boras, and Pena is in this boat too – I’ve never believed in playing out the stretch and talking after the season. I’m putting an offer in front of an agent, and if he isn’t taking it, I’m the GM of a franchise that isn’t about to do some record deal. I have to trade the guy. Framber should have never left for nothing. Or Bregman. Or heck, this goes back to Correa and Springer and Cole and so and so forth. I’m a believer in not competing for my own free agents, if this is where they want to be we can get something done before we get to that point. I’m not ever getting to that point, contention or not.
I do think its beneficial to Hunter to sign something now that greatly increases his limited arb years to give us one or even his 2 first FA years. I would do it. I agree though that if Hunter Brown manages to stay near the top of annual Cy Young voting heading into 2029 that the contract Boras is thinking will be in the same range his mind is in about Skubal. That’s just water the Astros won’t swim in.
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1. If Yordan is still hitting .320 with 20 home runs in June, do you pull the trigger and trade him? Or is that the one move that’s simply off the table for you, no matter what?
Yes, otherwise we are looking at another Trout. This team isn’t contending anytime soon.
2. Hunter Brown’s agent is Scott Boras. Given what happened with Bregman and what’s happening with Peña, do you trust the Astros to get this extension done? Or is Brown already gone after 2028?
No, he and Pena is gone
3. If baseball loses the 2027 season to a work stoppage, which of these three options looks the smartest in hindsight?
Option 1, clean house at least have a decent farm that can be ready for 2028
4. Is this Houston Astros dynasty over? And if it is, does this front office have the courage to admit it?
Its Crane who has to admit that the window is closed and nailed shut. The FO wholesale needs to go. Apparently Brown doesn’t direct the draft so the whole staff needs to go. Then Crane needs to bring in people from teams like the Brewers and Rays that seem to know how to build teams on lesser budgets. And Crane nees to stay out of the baseball operations other than signing the checks.
5. Dana Brown has a decision to make. What would you do?
Dana Brown needs to be fired
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William, I think that’s a pretty good summary.
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This is why people on the internet think because they have a webpage and an opinion they are now experts –
There was a report from Bleacher Report where the writer suggested the Mets as a landing spot for Yordan. In this guys mind it was Mark Vientos, Kodai Senga, and Tobias Meyers for Yordan Alvarez. I about spit out my coffee, and I wasn’t even drinking coffee. That is about the most ridiculous proposal I may have ever seen.
I’ll be honest, I’ve looked at the Mets farm system. There isn’t even a conversation to be had. It’s not quite as bad as ours, but it’s not much better.
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Agreed, Steven. If Yordan goes in a trade, I’m thinking Herschel Walker-esque.
Trading Yordan should rewrite the definition of “haul”.
Based on your Mets’ farm system review, the best trade there may be the Mets’ farm system for Yordan and a couple of low-A players. 😉
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Any conversation with NY has to start with Ewing IMO. But thats just a start. Their best prospects according prospectus don’t have the results I would be looking for. McLean is also intriguing, but his command is so-so. But so was Hunter’s at the same age.
I would agree with Herschel-esque. Give me those two, Benge, and two other minor leaguers in your organizational top 30. Maybe the 5th can be like a 18 year old playing A ball or something.
Vientos as the centerpiece? Senga has been good, but he is now 33, injured, and owed about 35M more. That guy is an idiot.
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As for the idea of moving Teng into the rotation, I just don’t like it. It might work out. But I feel like it would equate to moving your LFer in to become your starting SS. They are different worlds, relief vs. starting. It’s exactly what McCullers talked about.
Guy is out there in the pen ready to come in for 3-6 outs. Face maybe 7 or 8 hitters at most. See the lineup just one time. Stay under 35 pitches if possible. Ramp up your velocity a little, stick to the pitches you have most command on – no need to worry about 4 or 5 pitches when you are seeing each hitter only once.
We have a guy having some success in the role. We don’t have a lot of that. Success. Leave success alone. Now you create a hole in the pen, another hole, for something you have no idea will succeed. Honestly, the hook was just to quick on Weiss. I’m not a big Ryan Weiss fan, the ability to throw the ball where you want is generally a little more important than just gassing it, but you got to make a plan and stick with it long enough to see it fail. Giving him 2 starts and just putting him back in the bullpen, its a part of this teams problem.
If every pitcher down there, starter, reliever, leverage, closer, is constantly being redefined no one can find a rhythm. I know Espada is not the one walking guys, but at a point I feel like the culture and ambiguity lends to the walks. Guys are just not there preparing day in and day the same way, they are not finding consistency, and routines are changing constantly. I don’t think Espada is a bad manager, but I think he is ill equipped and lacks experience to handle this staff and it’s injuries, and it just leaves to many of its pitchers in flux.
Thats the long way of saying leave Teng alone, but it appears we are past that point.
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May be a moot point since Boston will pay him through 2027.
But, in Dan P style, would you rather have Espada in 2027? Or would you take Alex Cora as a new manager (assuming we play ball next season)?
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I don’t want go Dunning-Kruger on it, I really have no idea. Alex Cora doesn’t wow me, but he wowed the Red Sox front office, even to the point that when they lost him for a year they went back with him. Maybe he is great and I just don’t know it.
But I definitely think the PR nightmare of bringing in a manager that was one of the faces of the scandal back to Houston is not worth any level of genius I don’t know about.
Besides, Alex was offered the Phillies job literally the day after he was fired. And he said no, telling Dombrowski that he is “going to spend time with the family.” To me, thats code. Considering his contract is paid out regardless, and any new contract is subtracted from what the Red Sox have to pay, I doubt we see him back until after the 2028 season. He can sit at home for 7M a year from the Red Sox, or he can work his rear end off for some combination of 7M a year from his new team and the Red Sox.
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Our club simply lacks in so many areas. We’ve easily got the worst team pitching stats in MLB. The 5.96 ERA, the most walks, the most runs, a .268 BA against, a 1.64 WHIP.
Our bats have been much better to date. But we can’t expect Yordan and Walker to continue at their current pace. Getting Pena back will help. Getting Altuve to approach each and every at bat as he did when the season started would help. He’s just not that disciplined though. Paredes should come around to a degree, but maybe we saw the best of him in 2025. Cam? The jury remains out. Yainer? He’ll get hot at some point, but he just might end up being a career .700 plus OPS guy. I had higher hopes for him. Carlos Correa has been a plus. I’d take the .774 OPS and the .368 OBP on the season.
But even with pretty solid hitting to date, we’re 11-19. That’s with Yordan and Walker having the best starts of their careers.
And there are not enough solutions that would allow us to overhaul the worst pitching staff in MLB. Yes, we will get some guys back at some point. But that’s not even enough to make us a league average pitching staff.
Chip, to your manager question: Why pay Alex Cora 7 million a year to take over this roster? Joe Espada is making about 1.2 million. I don’t see Alex or anyone else having a big enough impact until the Astros have decided to clean house and build a new roster from the ground up. But I could see Joe going at the same time as Dana. Omar would be a cost efficient replacement on an interim basis.
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Chip and friends – thanks for keeping things rolling. I am in a Value Engineering workshop (also known as hell with a small h) all week and have had no time or energy to write anything. So, Chip thanks for good content.
This is very hard for me to think about right now. I am not ready to burn it down. I know the current path isn’t working. I know that a hybrid might put us in mediocrity hell.
Not very helpful I know. I will come up with something better – maybe tomorrow.
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Let’s assume there’s a lockout and no baseball for 2027. I don’t know for sure (I’m sure somebody here does) that if a players contract is through 2027 and there’s a lockout, the contract ends in ’27 and is not extended, correct?
Then our payroll would drop by 70MM +. Not that that is good or bad but it sure clears off the books Javier, Walker, and 20MM of Altuve’s salary. Maybe that would be a time to trade Yordan and Brown or extend them. Personally I’m glad I don’t have to make that decision but it sure takes a lot of alternatives off the table.
Leaning towards the hybrid in this case but we just don’t know what will happen at the end of the season.
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AI is telling me service time is not accrued, which means contracts would be extended to meet required service time. How that might be affected if, say, the lock out were to end in May and after an abbreviated ST they are playing ball by 1 July, I don’t know. I’m guessing that would be a part of the negotiations.
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One thing I’ve not heard anyone think about is how the money people would feel about a “rebuild.” We know Houston is a fickle town. People don’t show up when you aren’t winning. When the Astros are really good you can have a sell out on a non-descript Wednesday night.
The problem with trading Yordan, Hunter, Isaac, Jeremy, maybe you add Yainer to that list if he starts to pick it up, is what you have left. You can’t move Altuve. You can’t move Correa. You can probably move Walker if he keeps hitting, but you still might have to eat some salary. You can’t move Hader. There are contracts that exist that will still keep your payroll probably well north of 100M. Is 10k a night and reduced ad revenue on SCHN going to make up for this? Less people isn’t just less money at the gate, it’s less vendor sales, less souvenirs, less traffic on the Astros store on MLB.com. It’s less everything everywhere.
Crane has seen the difference. He saw the bottom line revenue losing and winning. He knows he can’t move them all this time, like he did last time.
That’s why, even if we think it is a good idea, it is very unlikely to happen. There isn’t a way to strip the team completely down, accept the few bad years, and come back flaming by 2031. Second, you don’t even know if it will work. When the Astros sent Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, when they started jettisoning people, they didn’t get good until they drafted Correa, Springer, Bregman, Tucker, they didn’t get Altuve or Keuchel or Pressly or Yuli, I could go on and on, none of those people came to us via the transactions from a rebuild, a lot of it came to us after years of losing and drafting high. But drafting high is no guarantee.
No, not only do I think Crane does not ever do a rebuild, I personally agree with him, at least through the end of Correa and Altuve’s time in Houston. We needed to evaluate pitching better last offseason. We needed to make better choices, and maybe, spend a little more money on pitching. But turn us into the 2011 Astros again? No thanks.
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But don’t get me counter pointing myself. I would definitely trade any star the year before free agency if they won’t sign an extension, ala Tucker. So Pena is on the clock. This time next year time to corner Yordan and Hunter’s agents.
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We’re fixated on the wins and losses right now, but the number that matters is how many games behind they are. Right now it’s 5 behind Oakland and 4 behind Seattle. If they are 10 games under .500 on July 1st but still sitting the same 5 games behind you’ll probably see Crane trying to buy.
But you made an interesting point about needing to evaluate the pitching better in the offseason. Teams like NY (either) or LA would just eat the Javier and McCullers contracts and make moves to get their roster how they think it needs to be. Was Crane’s budget constraint more in order to prevent losing draft assets and signing bonus money or because he was not willing to pay the luxury penalties after having to eat those salaries (again)? I previously leaned more toward the former, but it may be more of the latter and that’s really short sighted. Your 10k butts in the seat scenario will cost him a lot of money. It does make me wonder if there should be some nuance in this luxury tax threshold to allow teams a better chance at retaining players (like in NBA). As I finish my coffee this morning it feels like we should be able to depreciate assets when they can’t play as well.
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“Teams like NY (either) or LA would just eat the Javier and McCullers contracts and make moves to get their roster how they think it needs to be.”
100% this. Smartest statement I’ve seen in a long time. That’s the difference. These players are past their ability to make positive contributions. You are a better team if you just cut them and give Jason Alexander the starts you are a giving LMJ right now. Probably not time to “cut” Javier, but find ways to keep him off the mound unless you see a rebound.
I will forever be a LMJ fan. I hope there is an opportunity for him to remain an Astro for life. 2017 doesn’t happen without him. Guy’s got a radio voice and TV face. He knows baseball. Lets use him somewhere. Just not on the mound anymore, injuries have just removed his effectiveness.
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Just a curiosity item. I see that no MLB team is even considering Tervor Bauer. While I’m not a fan he still has potential to be a MLB pitcher. I read the other day that the woman that accused him has recanted her story. I sincerely believe that there is collusion among the teams to keep him out of the big leagues. What would it hurt to give him a try and yes he was one of those who was very vocal about the Astros “cheating scandal”?
Could he be any worse on the mound than some of those we’re using right now? And he’d have to keep his temper and mouth under control. Thought’s from the crew here?
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Will never happen.
Should it? I don’t know. Likely there is information that was presented behind closed doors that baseball people know that we don’t. I can’t imagine that out of 30 major league teams someone wouldn’t want a positive WAR player for minimum salary. Has to be something known league wide that isn’t common public knowledge.
I guess it’s possible that it is the league office stopping teams, but I would think with the amount of employees working in the front office of 30 different clubs that if the league offices were stopping Bauer someone from one of these teams would have leaked to a Chandler Rome type that the league offices stopped them. It just makes me believe literally 30 different teams have all drawn the same conclusion – that bringing him in might give a reason for that which sits in the dark to come to light and it would now be their issue.
Personally, we are already the villians to the rest of baseball. I would be fine with it. But I don’t know what they know.
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Hey Zanuda, since you mentioned Trevor Bauer you may be interested to know he signed with the Long Island Ducks. He apparently threw a seven inning no hitter against the Lancaster Stormers. The Long Island Ducks will be visiting the Gastonia Ghost Peppers on 5/12 to 5/17 for a six game series. I suspect that’s within driving distance for you.
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Wow, the Astros get pummelled by a .500 team in the opener, then put a spring training-like lineup on the field for Game 2.
What an incredible outfield!!! NOT!
Harris, Johnson and Smith.
Texted Dan a few minutes ago: I’m wondering if we’re not about to see a shakeup. Nothing is improving at all…not even treading water at this point.
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It appears the Astros will get a win out of the three games series. Plenty of bats in the nite cap. On to Boston. For the life of me, I just can’t see the Astros becoming relevant with the baseball players available to them.
Chip, I don’t think a shake up is coming anytime soon though. It’s got to be the last resort for Crane. But he has surprised us before.
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Ugh…”it appears”…dave, get back to me in the 8th and let’s talk. 😉
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A three game set where we give up 20 runs, all earned, to continue pitching at a 6+ ERA clip. At some point, they have to figure out how to get clean innings. 17 more walks in 27 innings. They just can’t keep doing this. Well, they can, but they will lose 95 games.
At some point Espada has to quit trying to survive. He has to become a manager on the attack with his pitchers. Right now, I think he is just looking at spread sheets asking himself just who is available that can go 1 today, who can go 2, who might be able to give me 3. I’m not sure he is doing a terrible amount of matching up, planning, or any form of strategy.
The problem for him is when he tries, it doesn’t go well. In Teng’s start he had it figured for Teng to go once through, then bring Okert in the second time he got the lefty/switch/lefty matchup, and it sounded good, until Okert let them all on base. So I get it, he is trying. He needs to do more of that, and less of just trying to get innings from guys. I know it didn’t work that time, but doing that will succeed far more than not doing it. Now, Okert isn’t really a splits guy, he pretty much gets everyone out the same way, but maybe it was more about the batters. Sousa may have been a better choice in that spot, he does have at least some separation in his splits.
If you are going to lean into a strategy, lean into it. Sometimes it really is as simple as using the wrong guy to do the right thing, or the right guy to do the wrong thing. Figure it out, use the right guy to do the right thing.
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I wish we had few more right guys.
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Chicken or egg Dave, are they the right guys being used wrong, or are they the wrong guys being used right? Is it really the pitchers, or is it the roles they are in and how they are being used? Or is it, probably, some of both?
I’m more apt to think Crane needs to fix who the guys around him are more than he needs to fix the roster. But it seems, really, he needs a bit of both.
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Steven, maybe we’ll survive the next month, month and a half and Hunter and Hayden will come back healthy. But I still see too many holes. I don’t think I’m being cynical, I just keep looking at what the guys on the pitching staff have done in the past and where they’ve come from. With the exception of Abreu, they are pretty much meeting expectations right now. But like you I certainly believe it is a combination of things, including Crane needing to do something about the guys around him. At the same time, Crane has helped put us where we are today. So we should not expect much help from our owner.
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