While waiting for some major news from Spring Training, it felt like a good time to rattle around about some random baseball stuff. So here we go….
Predictions
Whenever I feel bad about a prediction, I should go back and look at an expert’s prediction article to see how good it was.
Luckily, today the experts did it for me, and I think that was a fairly brave and interesting thing for them to do.
Revisiting each team’s No. 1 prospect prediction for 2026 season
MLB.com had its team experts predict who each team’s top prospect would be heading into 2026 back in 2024.
Now, I commend them for doing this as usually we are bombarded with tons of these lists and never any re-visitation to see how they turned out.
In this case of the 30 prospects tagged before the 2024 season to be the top prospect two years hence, six of them are still their choice for top 2026 prospect at this point.
That sounds bad, but here are some thoughts:
- Reading the details in the article, there are probably only a few (3 or 4) who are bombouts, including the one they picked for the Yankees (yaaaayyy!!)
- There are a couple who might still be on the list, but they have been traded to another team with deeper prospects.
- A number of them have been sidetracked by injury, including one who has had brain surgery.
- A number of the top prospects have been displaced by players who were not even with the organization in 2024. For instance, Kevin Alvarez has used his short time in the Astros’ organization to leapfrog over Luis Baez and others to this top spot.
- I am a little put out that no Astros’ prospect, including Alvarez, is in the top 100 MLB prospect list. C’mon guys. That makes no sense.
- There is one familiar name on the Mets’ list. Ryan Clifford was picked back in 2024 as their top prospect by now. Clifford, along with Drew Gilbert, were traded by the Astros at the 2023 deadline in exchange for the return of Justin Verlander. Clifford has shown decent power, but his low BA’s and high K rates have dropped him from the top of the Mets’ prospect list.
Overall, it shows that baseball is not a static game. It is very difficult for even those close to the game and teams to make predictions.
Another Prediction
And along those same lines, MLB.com made a prediction on each team’s top player for the coming season. Top projected players for every MLB team in 2026
In most cases, it is a player who was nailed in 2025. But for the Astros it is Yordan Alvarez, who was nowhere close to the Astros’ best player in 2025.
Some thoughts:
- As Daveb was discussing the other day in our comments – baseball-reference.com had predicted a very fine year for Alvarez in 2026, except…..they only had him having 311 ABs. While almost double the ABs he saw in 2025, it is nowhere near the number of ABs he will need to be the Astros best player in 2026.
- They also state in the MLB.com article that they expect Yordan to be healthy because he will be an almost full-time DH in 2026. This does not match Yordan’s expectations of playing a lot in the field or the team’s potential need for him to play in the field, so that Jose Altuve can DH a lot more and Isaac Paredes can get more time in the lineup.
- Funny to look at Angels and not see either Shohei Ohtani or Mike Trout as the predicted MVP and to find out that Zach Neto was their best player the last two seasons.
- Bobby Witt Jr. is only 25 years old. It is kind of like when you realize CJ Stroud is only 24 years old. It feels like they should be in their upper 20’s.
First Starter
The Astros starter for the first preseason game against the Nats on Saturday was announced by Sports Illustrated. If you think it was going to be Hunter Brown, you are wrong. It was announced as Colton Gordon.
The Astros lately have used this spot as a bit of a reward for a pitcher who is on the 40 man, but is not yet slated in the rotation. It’s usually someone they are throwing a bone to this time of year. For instance, in 2024, the first ST game starter was Ronel Blanco, who had only thrown a few innings for the big club previously. He was not unknown after the season as he arguably was the Astros’ top starter that year.
Will Gordon enjoy similar success?
Time will tell.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
9 responses to “Astros’ spring training: Some stuff”
Pleased to see that 17 year old Kevin Alvarez had a .419 OBP in his first 47 games as a professional baseball player. He had 23 BB’s and 19 K’s to go with an .874 OPS. It sounds like a mature approach at the plate.
At 22, the 6’1″ Baez might weigh 225 or 240. I really hope he’s not let a lack of conditioning affect his game.
Yordan might have a hard time with that 4.4 WAR if he ends up being healthy enough to play 70 or 80 games in left field. We really need Pena to give us something similar to last season. And we also need a 3 WAR minimum from Cam Smith. Otherwise his development program needs to be reevaluated.
What can they do to help Colton Gordon become a better pitcher? He gave up a .293 BA and an .872 OPS. He’s got great control, but he’s just not fooling ML hitters.
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When I saw Baez in 2023, my assumption was that he was on the older end of the spectrum at class A rather than being a 19 year old based on physical development. He was awfully stiff at the plate and didn’t do anything in the field to make me think future MLB outfielder. That’s why I wrote, in response to one of our prospect discussions, that he might be destined to 1B if they think that highly of his bat. Well, the bat didn’t travel to Corpus. I guess we’ll see what he did over the winter and whether his name is worth following pretty soon. It’s kind of sad because there are a handful of guys who just haven’t developed in our system. You look at other organizations like LA, NYY, or BOS and their prospect pipeline almost always has some really intriguing players who do manage to move up the ranks.
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I try not to worry about projections of playing time. I do concern myself with projections of OBP, SLG and OPS they can hold a story. He seems fine there, but in the end I’m hoping that his age 29 season is his prime season and we get better than a .904. If we have to “settle” for a .904 as long as that bat is in the lineup we will be fine.
No player in my mind is more important than the guy on the bump to start a game, but if you are going to make an argument one is, its Yordan. Dude just needs to be playing.
Zach Neto – the pesky mosquito that just won’t go away. Slightly underrated player though. Does not have ratios to write home about but a little power and great defense. The Angels need a healthy Mike Trout more than we need a healthy Yordan Alvarez.
Colton Gordon is no Ronel Blanco. I’m sure Hunter’s schedule was created backwards planning his opening day start. A little surprised though if no actual candidate for the rotation would have a schedule that lined up. Maybe Joe’s thought is not ramping those arms up for another day or two.
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My point on Yordan playing the field too much is that it will effect his overall WAR quite a bit.
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As for Yordan’s playing time, his PA’s the last 5 years would suggest 2025 is the weird one, and would be opposite the notion that he is anymore injury prone than the rest of the team. I think his stature scares people (me included), and recency bias feeds our injury prone narrative, but really, he hasn’t been anymore injury than Altuve or Bregman or anyone else, and arguably even less injury prone than Correa.
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I see Colton Gordon perhaps for long relief, but as a weak starting pitcher. I would consider Blubaugh in a starting role before him. The youngster Alverez has obvious talent and potential, but don’t overlook Ethan Frey. He will arrive sooner. At 6’6″, He has a quick swing with very little hit and miss with power. He can run well and now has a strong throwing arm after his injury two years ago at LSU. Like Alverez, he’s a 5 tool outfielder, but at 22 is older and arrive to the Astros sooner. I predict that whoever the outfielders are this year, one of the them will be replaced by Frey sometime in 2027. I just worry that Brown will trade him and Alverez for immediate help this year.
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Frey is absolutely with Alvarez my favorite two prospects. I think more of them than Matthews or Neyens right now.
To me our biggest issue is no exciting arm talents the way we have at least a small handful of position players to get a little excited about.
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daveb – Yes one of the best things about Alvarez’s early showing is more BBs than Ks – that is almost a unicorn type of thing that you rarely find.
Steven – I agree with you – it is time to have THAT season out of Yordan – the kind that put you into the MVP discussion immediately. But failing that I’ll take .900 OPS for 500+ ABs. I do think that the fact that Yordan gets these hard to quantify injuries like his knees and his hand injuries – he is a bit worrisome.
Larry – yes Alvarez is a ways away, but would love to see him shoot up a few levels in the minor leagues this season. I like what you are saying about Ethan Frey – very good numbers at A ball last season – will he start at A+ Asheville and maybe get a good chunk of time at Corpus AA next season? Then like you say maybe AAA / majors in 2027. I don’t normally picture 6′-6″ guys with a quick swing and not much of a hole in their swing. Will keep him on the radar this year.
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Good morning. Last night I watched 39 minutes of AJ Blubaugh on Rome, sharing his path into professional baseball. First of all, AJ Blubaugh is a good name for a pitcher. That said though, when I go back and forth to his minor league stats, I have no idea if he’ll be a game changer at the Major League level.
But this guy is really grounded. He fully appreciates the effort his entire family has made to help him over the past 15 years. He’s a confident speaker, has a sense of humor, understands the world around him, is not overwhelmed by the task ahead of him. He’s ready to work out of the pen, spot start, do whatever is asked of him. He’s a really positive guy who has a whole lot of faith too. He’s a perfect teammate. I can’t bet against AJ Blubaugh. He’s got all the attributes that need go along with the talent it will take to succeed at the ML level.
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