I have to admit that one reason there aren’t more posts from Dan P (especially in the off-season) is a lack of real Astro news and topics. How many times can one talk about the pitching injuries, the fill-in behind Framber Valdez, the potential trade to unplug the infield, or the lack of lefty bats with this team? I can also be lazy at times, I admit.
So, when one of my loyal readers suggests something, I will at least give it a shot. Here is a suggestion from a good friend of the blog, Steven.
“Dan – you should see a write up I did on position battles for Spring Training. Surprisingly our roster doesn’t have a lot of competition, which is good, but only one of Allen and Matthews will be here, only one of Cole and Dezenzo will be here, only one of Salazar and Perez will be here. And that bullpen. Ayeesh. Heck, they’ve got seven candidates for the 6 man rotation to open, and the loser of that muddies that bullpen situation even more.
There are ideas for your next write-up, lol.”
Let’s talk about the “competition”.
Starting Pitching
Sure Things – Barring injury, the following pitchers should be in a five- or six-man rotation.
Hunter Brown – Third in the Cy Young voting – he is the ace
Tatsuya Imai – Despite the fact that I have to check his spelling every time I type it – Imai was brought on here to be a #2
Mike Burrows – The Astros sent two top prospects to the Pirates for Burrows. He will be in the rotation.
Cristian Javier – He came back from his TJ surgery and pitched OK. They should be giving him a chance to show what he can do farther away from the surgery.
Duking It Out – The team might see this differently, but it seems like the fifth and sixth spots in the rotation may come down to the following pitchers
Spencer Arrighetti – Perhaps he is not fighting for a spot and is already there, but he did not pitch very well when he was not injured last year, so maybe he is not a shoo-in.
Jason Alexander – Maybe he is automatic, too, but with his lack of a good resume the team has to be watching to see if his success in 2025 was a fluke.
Lance McCullers Jr. – If Lance was making what Alexander or Arrighetti will be making in 2026, he would not be a consideration. But that $17+ million means that he at least will be given some kind of shot to make the rotation. But his leash has to be short.
J.P. France – Based on how he pitched back in 2023 before his injury and how well he pitched in limited innings in his 2025 return, he should at least be in the conversation for a spot in the rotation and/or bullpen.
Other Considerations
AJ Blubaugh – Based solely on 2025 results, Blubaugh would be in front of Arrighetti and McCullers. But likely he will either grab a bullpen spot or he will be stretched out at AAA waiting for someone to go down.
Colton Gordon – His 6-4 record in 2025 was good. His 5.35 ERA and 1.419 WHIP were not.
Miguel Ullola – He is on the 40-man roster and is considered one of their top prospects, but is very likely spending time this season honing his control before he is given a shot.
Infield
Sure Things
Christian Walker – If he is on the roster and not flying away to another team with $$ for a non-prospect – he will be playing first.
Jose Altuve – Whether he should or should not be playing the field statistically, Jose will be the main second baseman in 2026.
Jeremy Pena – The very best position player from 2025 is in like Flynn.
Carlos Correa – If he is healthy (and isn’t that always the question with Carlos) he will be playing at 3B and SS when Pena is getting a day off.
Duking it out
This is more like duking it out for a spot on the bench…
Isaac Paredes – He should have the third base spot tied up in this lineup, but the head scratching trade for Correa has placed him perhaps in a quasi-Mauricio Dubon position with the team. If…he is not traded before, during or after Spring Training he has to be on this roster and wandering the infield like Caine in Kung Fu.
Nick Allen – Just because they added Allen in a swap that sent Dubon away does not mean he is automatically grabbing a spot with this team. He has an All Star glove paired with a No Star bat.
Brice Matthews – Did the Astros see enough with Matthews in 2025 to find him a spot on this roster. This really comes down to whether they would rather see him back in AAA playing every day or sitting on the Astros bench.
Zach Dezenzo – Zach played the corner outfield and the corner infield spots in 2025. If he could make more consistent contact, he could be a backup to four positions in 2026.
Outfield
Sure Things
I was really tempted to put no one in the sure things spot. After the season, Dana Brown indicated that Cam Smith needed to earn his spot in Spring Training and Jake Meyers has supposedly been on the market to be traded away. But here is my best interpretation of the future.
Cam Smith – Yes, he needs to do better than he did in the second half of the season. But after bypassing AAA and with minimum minor league development to begin with the team owes him another bite of the apple.
Jake Meyers – If….he is with the team I believe he is a sure thing to be in the starting lineup most days in CF.
Duking it out
Jesus Sanchez – I’m sure they will do what they can to give Sanchez a role in this lineup but it won’t be based on anything he did (or mostly did not do) in his stint with the Astros in 2025.
Zach Cole – Astro fans would love to see Cole continue to flash the bat they saw in his late season cameo with the team (if we ignore his high unsustainable strikeout rate).
Zach Dezenzo – Dezenzo hit ok in his appearances in 2025. But he did miss a lot of time with injuries. He would be an under the radar addition to the roster in 2026.
Other Considerations
Brice Matthews – In his time with the big club in 2025, he played at 2B and 3B. But in the minors he played more CF than anything else in 2025.
Other folks like Shay Whitcomb or anyone on their prospects list like Joseph Sullivan or Ethan Frey are not making this team out of Spring Training, but bad performances at the MLB level could give them a shot pretty early in 2026.
DH and Catcher
Sure Things
Yordan Alvarez is the DH except when he is playing LF and when he is playing LF, the DH is one of the infielders mentioned above, but especially Altuve and Paredes.
Yainer Diaz is the C almost all the time even if he should be given a fair amount of rest.
Other Considerations
Right now the backup catcher is Cesar Salazar though the real backup may not be here. Former Astro Christian Vazquez’s name was floated today. He had a big run scoring hit in the Astros WS clinching Game 6 against the Phils, but truthfully his numbers have sucked – with an OPS of below .600 since he left the Red Sox to come to the Astros in 2022.
Bullpen
Sure Things
Josh Hader – Was having an excellent season before his late year injury.
Bryan Abreu – Was having an excellent season before Hader’s late year injury put him in the discomfort zone of the closer’s role.
Bryan King – Took over the 7th inning slot that Tayler Scott booted away.
Steven Okert – Shared that slot many times with King as they pitched in 136 games between them.
Bennett Sousa – If…..he is healthy after his elbow “inflammation” flare up towards the end of the season.
Duking it out
With likely 6 starters and 13 pitchers overall – that leaves two more spots in the bullpen.
Enyel De Los Santos – he pitched very well when he first joined the Astros, but he slowly bubbled back to his mean.
Nate Pearson – He was very good for the Cubs in 2024 and very bad in 2025 in short stints.
Colton Gordon – Did they see enough good things in 2025 to give him another shot in 2026.
The “losers” – Someone who misses out on the rotation will have a shot at a long reliever or swing slot between relieving and starting.
Other Considerations
Roddery Munoz – On the 40-man roster currently, last year with the Cards in a short trial he showed the good (11.5 K/ 9 P) along with the very bad (7.4 walks/ 9 IP).
Jayden Murray – Also on the 40-man roster, he pitched very well in 9 games with the Astros in 2025.
Plenty to chew on – what do you think?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
26 responses to “Always Looking for the Next Post”
The SFGiants are reportedly acquiring Astros No. 13 prospect Jancel Villarroel in exchange for RHP Kai-Wei Teng, per Brian Mctaggart.
Why??
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And I’m hearing we are releasing JP France
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Good morning everyone! Dan, I get it. What can we talk about when there is no movement? Well, we do have KWT now. But I know nothing about the big guy other than it seems he has good stuff but does not know where it’s going. We’ve got a few of those guys. And we lose young Jancel V. because I suppose we’ve got plenty of catching depth in the organization. Maybe? Sort of? And JP France is gone from the 40 man and has been DFA’d. Seems he has one minor league option left should he pass through waivers. If JP is gone, he’s got to be remembered for keeping us in a bunch of games over 136 innings in 2023.
As far as everything else goes, I’m just waiting for one domino to fall. Paredes? Walker? Sanchez? Reddick was talking on Rome’s show last night. His take is that this stale mate could well go into Spring Training where he suggests someone’s first or third baseman will get injured and that will give the Astros far more leverage. I agree. I’m just tired of waiting!
I’m thinking Weiss gets a shot in the 6 man. Why rush Arrighetti? He should have an extended, cautious spring training with plenty of time to get built back up to full strength. I don’t think Alexander is an automatic. I’m pretty sure he has at least one option remaining. And hopefully Lance will help us determine his own destiny by the time we get through ST. If he’s ineffective or goes back on the IR, then maybe it’s time to cut ties. I’m sure he’s been working on a re-invention though. He likes being on the mound too much.
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I believe Weiss was left off of the list above and would fall in the “Duking it Out” portion of the rotation. The question is, for Weiss and some of the other Starters, would they move to the bullpen or go to the minors?
Weiss doesn’t have the track record and therefore clout to refuse a minor league assignment but he did sign a contract that tells me the Astros would not want to waste their money for a pitcher to be in Sugar Land.
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Oh, and Reddick is still convinced Verlander will come back, maybe as a late arrival.
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I usually can’t get through an episode of Crush City if Reddick is on.
But maybe if you are just going to be over the cap, why not?
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Matthew Stafford is the guy I have a problem listening to.
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Thanks for taking one for the team and listening to that, dave. I share your puzzlement at moving a catcher for a guy who may not be able to stick in your bullpen. I also question what JV brings to the table in terms of ability over the long list of guys Dan laid out. Maybe it’s filling the leadership void we’re assuming exists? Unless he wants to play for the absolute bare minimum I’d rather give longer auditions to guys like Alexander and Blubaugh.
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Verlander might be the only guy the Astros would go over the cap for. After all, the boss gets to make the exceptions and Verlander is his close friend and golfing buddy.
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Dave – right now as it stands most sites report them as over the cap by about 5M, so if you are already over it, why not?
Of course whats happening in smoke filled rooms might be plans to move Paredes and Meyers in a creative way that brings them a lefty bat for LF AND puts them under the cap, but that seems unlikely.
Just straight statistically speaking, there is no reason to bring JV back relative to his performance versus the options we have with the salary involved, but sometimes baseball is bigger than the analytics. JV would be a feel good story. I as a fan always enjoyed JV days, it gave me an excuse to crank up the grill and have me and wife sit on the back patio and watch the outdoor TV and eat a steak (she usually opted out of that part).
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This is definitely a fat chewing exercise.
There is no short way to look at it. While it seems this is a season where the 26 man coming out of ST seems mostly set already, there are plenty of questions of how you make the pieces fit. And how they make those pieces fit might determine who is the backup infielder or the 6th starter, as well as options/control.
Yainer and Cesar have to be the favorites for behind the plate. I can’t see a world where Perez or even Vazquez is going to change that. Salazar has no options left. If you were to go with anyone else out of ST it means a DFA for Salazar, who would likely elect free agency. Most years, no one would care. It’s not like we haven’t lost better players to DFA. But right now we are franchise with a shortage of major league ready (or even major league possible) catchers. I don’t see Perez pushing Salazar out of the organization when he is signed to a minor league deal already and can be sent to Sugar Land. An injury to Yainer could really put them in a spot where they are going to have to overpay for a catcher via trade.
The infield – seems pretty set. They’ve also decided to give Paredes time at 2B in addition to 1B, 3B, and some DH. I tend to agree with most of the podcasters on this – its still seems unlikely you can find 130 games for him doing this. I still think, at some point, the Astros and Red Sox get together on it. Both seem to be in a staring contest trying to play coy like its not that important, and our guy is more valuable to us then to be undersold, so keep staring Dana. Don’t get got on a Isaac trade, he really is very popular amongst us Astros fans.
The rest of the infield – its really about Allen vs. Matthews. Again, options matter here. Allen either makes the team or gets a DFA. He is a much better defender at every position. Matthews is the better hitter, and has CF on his resume also, which is something we don’t have a lot of across the roster. It doesn’t seem like they are too apt to give Matthews any significant time at SS if Pena got hurt. Maybe thats fixed by asking Carlos to shift over and let Matthews play 3B. The Astros really seem to like Brice, but maybe that has to do with being Brown’s very first name picked in a draft. Do you think they are willing to waive Allen to keep Brice on the roster?
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I don’t want to see anyone lost for the season, but if a competitive club loses their first baseman this spring, then maybe there is a chance to move Walker. It sure would make things a bit easier for Joe and please most of us fans. Is there a Walker fan club?
I’d like to see Matthews do a bunch of dynamic things in ST, forcing a ground swell of consideration. Allen is a slick glove. He’s also an out.
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Yea Nick Allen is a funny guy. Not many of our guys can boast a .285 career minor league average. Dude hit in little league, high school, college, and the minors. For some reason, he can’t make that last step and was arguably the worst offensive player in all of baseball in 2025.
Would really be great is if Jeremy Pena just stays healthy and plays 160 games this year. It would make keeping Brice look genius. Without Allen, a month stint on the IL for Jeremy could turn SS into a defensive circus.
Trading Dubon and STILL ending up over the cap seems folly at this point.
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The OF is a mess. By the end of the year we might play 6 different guys in LF. It seems Yordan will get some. Altuve will get some. Sanchez will get some. Cole, Dezenzo, even Matthews, all candidates to get some. Probably a name or two we aren’t even thinking about, will get some. The best lineup seems to have Yordan in LF so Paredes can DH, but I get the Astros pausing that. The thing is he never got hurt in the field. Its been on the bases or chronic issues like his hands. And he has a history of hitting so well when he is engaged in the game as a fielder too that I would have to consider it, especially because he is around a league average defender, way better than Sanchez or Altuve. Maybe they did, and dismissed it for a reason past me as a casual outside observer.
Seems Meyers is our CFer again. Cam is probably in right most days assuming he doesn’t hit .165 in ST. That might change a lot of things, including the pressure of trading for an OFer.
Cam failing might be the only way both Zachs make the club. Seems one will be ticketed for AAA to open, probably based on how they do in ST. Given equal performance and the Allen/Matthews battle I assume they will lean to Cole since he can play all 3 OF positions and bats from the side they need. Dezenzo does give you some flexibility at 1B and 3B in addition to the corner OF.
The outfield seems to be the area that is most likely to be changed through the course of the season by a trade, so it will interesting to see how Dana approaches it and how Joe uses Dana’s pieces.
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No doubt, Crane and Dana have given Joe a complicated roster to work with, at least how it stands right now. I sure hope it doesn’t turn into a folly.
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So much to chew on here – thanks everyone for sharing. Steven – a fine subject – thanks for all your sharing here
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Just got around to finally watching the mentioned pod about Chandlers projected 26 man, rotation, and opening day lineup.
First, I’ll say I gotcha Dave, Stafford is pretty dry. But Chandler also has the charisma of a broomstick and Chandler seems pretty convinced that Chandler knows more about baseball than anyone else.
But, at least if Chandler doesn’t have Dana in his phone, he probably does have Dana’s assistant GM. So watching the pod is worth something just for the inside scoop.
Interesting that he opened with Cole in LF. Considering they open with the Angels, and likely Kikuchi, I would guess Yordan opens in LF and Paredes is at DH, assuming there isn’t a roster shakeup. Again to show how malleable this roster will be – lets say Paredes is traded straight up for Jarren Duran, I don’t even think Cole makes this team. I think it will be Dezenzo in that case.
Outside his opening 9 he had Paredes, Allen, Sanchez and Salazar, 3 lefties and Paredes. He mentioned options and losing Allen and Salazar for good if they don’t make the team and that didn’t seem to make a lot of sense, I would agree with that sentiment when Matthews and Dezenzo do have options and Perez has a minor league contract already. But if either one have a lights out ST, the team should make the decision that makes them best coming out of ST even if it means losing someone.
I’m going to do some homework before I break down what I think about the pitching. Think of it this way Dan – yes, as the guys at my favorite Astros pod Stone Cold Stros call it – there is the concept of the Astros carwash and how they get things from pitchers no one else did. But really, what they seem good at, is switching up sequencing, and doing something like teaching Jason Alexander how to use his fastball to setup his change, not to use the change to be setting up fastballs. That’s probably a way more simplistic look at what they did for him than reality, but my point is they didn’t teach him to throw strikes. He was already doing that. Kickuchi came here and stayed right at his lower 2. something walk rate, they don’t fix command. They just fix what pitches you throw where and how you prepare for a game. That’s why I don’t suspect that Teng is all of a sudden going through the carwash and come out shiny. He just doesn’t throw strikes. They don’t have a history of fixing that or they could make Spencer Arrighetti an all-star. No, it comes down the pitcher to learn to command multiple pitches and have the consistency in their delivery to not see that command come and go start to start.
But you know who is my sleeper to break out? Mike Burrows. His analytics are the exact type analytics that the car wash turns into a plus pitcher.
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So, which analytics make Mike Burrows a prime target for carwash improvement? Sounds like he has solid stuff – does he have a top of the line spin rate?
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Burrows allows guys to get on base. He gives up hits. Too many barrels. The fastball kills him. That’s going to have to change. The off speed stuff gets his outs, but probably too many of them. His walk rate is pretty good. And he struck out 9.6 per nine in his starts. The WHIP was a respectable 1.240. The OBP and OPS were too high.
He averaged 4.53 innings per start in 2025. But he was coming off Tommy John in 2023, shoulder inflammation in 2022 and an oblique injury in 2021. So his innings were closely managed. On a positive note, he pitched better in the second half of the season. If he stays healthy and can get 2 or 3 more outs per start, then he’s likely going to be a real help to the rotation. I think a bit more strength build up and a little tweaking of what he throws and when, should help.
But he’s still a high risk candidate after three years of injury, and with only 99.1 total ML innings pitched, the jury is still out. I’m pretty certain Steven has prepared a far more definitive version of the Burrows scouting report for publication tomorrow!
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I’m not really THAT deep into it. I just note a few things. First, his command is good on all 4 pitches, 5 if you count the sinker. 43% of his strikeouts occurred using the changeup. His fastball had a .326 average against, the rest of his pitches far better. His spin rate on his curve and slider are both good, not elite, but good. And he throws everything for strikes.
This is the kind of the guy the car wash cleans. They can change pitch sequencing to get people off his mediocre fastball. It worked for Brandon Walter and Jason Alexander, albeit both in fairly short samples.
It doesn’t work for Arrighetti, because he doesn’t really have great command of a single pitch. Or Javier, or a lot of guys that struggle with the strike zone or show signs of having one or two pitches that are either great to lean on or awful to get away from. Mike Burrows gets most of his outs away from the fastball, and he tends to not walk many people.
By the way – statcast tells you the five closest pitchers to a guys profile – 3 of the names on Mike Burrows list I never heard of, but number 3 on the list was a guy we all know about – Yusei Kikuchi. Will Warren was the other one I am aware of, and a Will Warren duplicated season wouldn’t exactly be the breakout I’m hoping for but would settle into the 4 spot of a rotation just fine.
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As for length, I am very concerned about whats happened to him pitches 76 and beyond, when he was even trusted to throw them. That is where he will have to improve if he wants to become a major league starter for a competing franchise. If he can’t give you 30 starts and 160 innings, both ambitious numbers given his history, maybe a bullpen role is better for him.
And let me define “breakout” – because some people may see that and think I’m declaring him a Cy Young candidate – breakout to me would be if he the team is +5 wins/losses in his starts, his ERA stays under 4 and he makes it to 5 innings in 90% of his starts. That would make him a solid piece of the rotation – lets say if you are into standard lines, a 13-9 record where the team goes 18-12 in his starts, he hits 165 innings, and his ERA is 3.90. Considering the step he needs to take isn’t as big as say Spencer Arrighetti to get to that, I’ll pick him, though I agree that Spencer’s ceiling is higher. Spencer’s command makes his floor lower though.
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Yeah, give me just 2 more outs per nine. And the ERA under 4. That would end up making for a pretty good trade, regardless of whether or not Jacob Melton hits ML pitching. I’m counting on the line up giving the pitching staff a bit more help this year.
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As for pitching, I never really had the time to look the way I wanted.
I would guess club control will play a major role given ST performances being similar. That gives you Brown, Javier, Imai in the rotation for sure. Burrows probably has to pitch his way out of it. McCullers probably also has to pitch his way out of it and may even have a bigger leash than Burrows. I think the rest all have options, so its probably an open competition. You have to think Arrighetti would get the nod if they all perform relatively similar.
The bullpen – thats where options have to be taken in consideration if you are going to guess. Hader, Abreu, King, and Okert seem to be locks. Bennett Sousa still has an option but probably would have to pitch his way out of it. Locking in 3 lefties, 4 if you count the closer, into 7 spots, probably not what I would want, especially with none of them being guys that can stretch out to 40-45 pitches. Thats important for figuring out the rest of this. Munoz makes the team or has to be offered back to the Reds before being optioned. Reds may not want to use the 40 man spot, but they might. De Los Santos, out of options. Hard to see him not making the 26 man unless he just stinks in ST. That would seem to lock in 6 spots. You have to use the 7th for a long man, I just don’t see an option, unless you are willing to let a 2 inning start from LMJ or Arrighetti or Burrows crash your pen for 3 days. The spot may even need to be held by people with options that start a shuttle. I would think that would be the loser of the Arrighetti/Weiss/Alexander competition.
However it shakes out, Sugar Land is gonna have a pretty good rotation.
Here is my guess – but its purely a guess –
Opening day rotation – Brown, Imai, Javier, Burrows, Arrighetti, McCullers. I think LMJ will pitch himself out of a spot (and probably his last hurrah in baseball) by mid-May, about the time they go to a 5 man rotation for 2 months.
Bullpen – Hader, Abreu, King, Okert, Sousa, De Los Santos, and Weiss (swing/long man). We may lose Munoz, Cincinatti may not want him back. They may keep Munoz and not Weiss. I just don’t see what happens if the score is 8-2 in the 3rd inning when you pull out LMJ. Someone is going to eat that game, and we will be sitting on a pen of 1 inning guys.
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Good morning! So the M’s picked up Brandon Donovan. Does not seem they gave up a whole bunch for him. Apparently they had enough talent to get him though.
That team still has a hole or two. They’ve got an excellent five man rotation and a solid pen, but as with any club, the inevitable injury bug will impact them at some point.
Right now though, I think they’ve made themselves a better club this winter. Have we?
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STL got a top 100 prospect pitcher, 2 other prospects, and 2 competitive balance round picks (plus bonus pool money). What I can’t figure out from the articles is whether 1 pick came from SEA and one from Tampa or both from SEA. The real headliner here is that STL now has 6 picks within the top 100 of the draft this year. I’m glad we’re not in their division any longer.
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I keep writing my thoughts, and they keep turning into magazine articles.
I’ll just say that St. Louis got more than we could give. I wanted Donovan, he graduated from the high school my son goes to. Now, we have 4 current NFL players from Enterprise as well, so Brendan takes a back seat in legend status to football players as you can’t go to so much as a grocery store without hearing Roll Tide, but he is definitely well known. I would love to be able to root for both my team and the hometown kid. Now I have root AGAINST the hometown kid. What irony.
I’m tired of the back of the baseball card style of management. This philosophy of chasing the ‘ghost’ of a player’s prime is a high-risk strategy that often leads to burdensome contracts for declining assets. Is this Bagwell, who may hold a perspective rooted in his own experiences? It is a well-documented reality that elite athletes are often unreliable judges of their own diminishing skills, as their competitive nature makes it difficult to acknowledge physical decline. For the team to succeed it must remain objective and forward-looking in its player evaluations, a principle that currently appears to be lacking.
As for competitive balance picks, there are only 10 of them. They go to the 10 teams with the lowest revenues for the year. Hard to believe Seattle was there, but they were. So St. Louis just added two picks, Tampas and Seattles, sandwiched between the second and third rounds, as Devin said, both in the top 100. To me, unfair that they can be traded, but thats where we are. And the international pool money they got, probably two more lottery tickets they will find out there. This thing, by the end of the year, may account for up to 9 or 10 new players in their organization, even if the initial haul doesn’t seem over the top. THATS CREATIVE MANAGEMENT! Pay attention Dana, school is in session, and it’s free lessons.
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