Before I start – just a quick momentous note. Friday Dan P and Chip Bailey met for the first time….ever. We had a lovely lunch at a spot about halfway between Chip in Magnolia and Dan working downtown. We have “known” each other remotely since the time Chip was writing the fan blog for the Chronicle (spit!!!). It was back in 2010 when I wrote my first guest post for Chip, which was the tipping point that led to the Astros’ fall after their WS appearance.
I blame myself for the lack of direct contact. I have some Asperger tendencies when it comes to social anxiety, and I let it isolate me sometimes.
Anyways, we had a nice time talking about our Chipalatta history and the current state of sports. We parted with a promise to meet again soon and to possibly take in a game this year.
Now back to the show….
I was just thinking about how fast things change. Specifically, how much the Astros have changed since their 2022 championship.
They have played three seasons since that wonderful 4-2 beating of the Philadelphia Phillies. How have things changed since that momentous series? For the Astros, the answer is – a lot. Here is a look at the main folks at each position in 2022 vs. who is expected to fill those spots in 2026. (Or who would seem to be lined up for these spots in 2026).
| Position | 2022 Astro | 2026 Astros |
| 1B | Yuli Gurriel | Christian Walker |
| 2B | Jose Altuve | Jose Altuve |
| SS | Jeremy Pena | Jeremy Pena |
| 3B | Alex Bregman | Carlos Correa |
| C | Martin Maldonado | Yainer Diaz |
| DH | Yordan Alvarez | Yordan Alvarez |
| LF | Michael Brantley | Zach Cole |
| CF | Chas McCormick | Jake Meyers |
| RF | Kyle Tucker | Cam Smith |
| 4th OF | Mauricio Dubon | Jesus Sanchez |
| SP | Framber Valdez | Hunter Brown |
| SP | Justin Verlander | Tatsuya Imai |
| SP | Cristian Javier | Michael Burrows |
| SP | Luis Garcia | Cristian Javier |
| SP | Jose Urquidy | Spencer Arrigheti |
| SP | Jake Odorizzi | Jason Alexander |
| Closer | Ryan Pressly | Josh Hader |
| RP | Rafael Montero | Bryan Abreu |
| RP | Hector Neris | Steven Okert |
| RP | Phil Maton | Bryan King |
| RP | Bryan Abreu | Bennett Sousa |
| RP | Ryne Stanek | Nate Pearson |
Note – if anyone takes exception to any of the names thrown in here – have at it. We don’t really know who will be with the team when they break camp this spring. I went with 6 starting pitchers and four outfielders to try and best cover the various players who did or may play a significant role. And I know I did not include Isaac Paredes, though I hope I am wrong.
But what do I see here….
- The position side of the team has that strong base of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena in both 2022 and today. The rest of the lineup has changed with the subtraction of Yuli Gurriel, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker somewhat offset by the addition of Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz and Carlos Correa. (Technically, Yainer had a very small cameo in 2022 of 6 games).
- The position players are a drop-off between 2022 and today. Back in 2022, the Astros’ offense placed in the top three in most offensive categories. The current Astros are coming off a season where they placed below average in the range of 8 to 10 in the AL in most offensive categories. Yes, they are hopeful with a healthy Yordan Alvarez, some bounce back for Yainer Diaz and Christian Walker, and help from the young guys like Cam Smith and Zach Cole, this offense will improve. But how much?
- The starting pitching is almost a complete turn over except for Cristian Javier, who was a huge cog in the championship wheel and today is trying to find himself after a return from TJ surgery. There is a lot more unknown about this year’s starting staff. How will Imei’s (Japan) and Weiss’ (Korea) success overseas translate to the majors? Can Javier get back to what he was back in 2022? Can they get Burrows to take the next step in his development? Can Spencer Arrighetti return to what he was in the second half of 2024? Is Jason Alexander the real thing? There are no question marks about Hunter Brown other than whether his teammates will support hm better in 2026.
- The 2022 starting rotation dominated the American League – leading with an 84-39 record, 2.95 ERA, and 1.07 WHIP. The Astros had middle-of-the-road starting pitching in 2025 with Framber Valdez. (The last portion of the season, he was negative, but above average for the season as a whole). They could be better in 2026, especially if they do not lose a bunch of starts to injury. But it is not a sure thing.
- Like the starting pitching, the relief pitching is almost a complete makeover in 2026 from 2022 with Bryan Abreu the only holdover. Of course, this is not unusual with bullpens as a whole or the Astros specifically.
- The 2022 bullpen, led by closer Ryan Pressly, had the most saves and the best ERA in the AL. The 2025 bullpen which returns mostly intact was a very good group, fourth in the AL in ERA, tops in WHIP. There is no reason to believe the 2026 bullpen will be that different from what we saw in 2025. Unless…..injuries and sudden drop offs occur.
The bottom line here is that pro sports as a whole are very fluid personnel-wise. This particular look at the changes since 2022 show how large the changes can be. The question here is – can this different version of the Astros bring home similar results as back in 2022?
That is why we watch the game.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
23 responses to “How fast things change: 2022 to 2026”
Things sure, sure have changed since 2022. We keep scrambling. Dana still has a real outfield problem. Now we’ve got the infield issue. We don’t have a position for our most patient bat in the line up. And like you say Dan, will our guys without ML experience pitch like Major Leaguers? We lack left handed bats that can bat. We don’t have a back up catcher. We have two guys that should be at DH daily. And per the latest from Joe, ever changing, Yordan will be back in the outfield on a part time basis again. So this week, Dana and Joe are on the same page in that regard. Thing is, with the present 13, while not ideal, we need Yordan to play some left. It’s kind of like the Burlap Barrel beer league slow pitch team I played on for years. We’d sit down over a beer, of course, and make out a new line up every week. We always had a hole somewhere, or three. Looks like Joe will be doing it nightly again.
I was reading Rome’s Athletic post over the weekend and he noted that Correa and Joe had gotten together for lunch 3 or 4 times during the offseason, per Carlos “all in hopes of addressing some shortcomings in the clubhouse Correa saw after his acquisition in August”. And then the article went on to say that per Correa the most glaring issue was a lack of any plan to prevent fatigue or injury during a 6 month season. I’m sure Joe enjoyed those lunches immensely. So is Carlos Correa Jim Cranes 20 million dollar mole, rat, or whatever you might want to call him?
I’m tired of the talk of Correa’s leadership abilities. Lead by example. Go out and play 140 All Star worthy games and be quiet. It’s not his team anymore. As far as I’m concerned, he’s in the way both on the field and with his mouth. And I’d bet that neither Dana not Joe are thrilled to have him around.
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I think Correa just has a way to words to make something innocuous sound loaded. I want to give him the benefit of the doubt, though, because it sure felt like players were either not being held accountable for mental mistakes or just not capable of correcting that part of the game. With all everyone has written about Bregman being this extra coach out there on the field and all everyone here talked about how much we’d miss his leadership I’m inclined to believe the second half slide last season was at least partially attributable to the personnel changes in that regard.
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Devin, I’m admittedly still annoyed that Carlos Correa is our third baseman. But that’s not his fault. I’d just rather he go about his business quietly and let the leadership role come to him.
Dan, no doubt he’s got a pedigree, but that does necessarily make other players look up to him or want to listen to him. And indeed, if he has spent several lunches with Joe Espada this winter expressing his concerns about Astro clubhouse culture and allegedly a lack of concern from the club and players in general about staying healthy throughout a six month season, well, then it’s possible some would take that as getting thrown under the bus. Especially the manager.
This was a beat up club at the end of 2025. Nobody packed it in. I know guys like Altuve were playing at less than 100%. We had a batch of no name pitchers keep us in games throughout most of the season, with a couple of guys essentially throwing their arms off. There was no quit in the club. Misguided effort? Maybe. But bringing in a player that feels it’s his role to dissect what transpired last season is likely not a very healthy approach. And again, I’m not prepared to condemn Carlos. There is a very good chance Jim Crane has encouraged the Correa approach.
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They do have holes daveb – but they do have potential for a playoff team considering how close they came in 2025 despite so many injuries. Even with a lot of lineup challenges between the infield and the outfield – the key to their success I think does hang on how the pitching rotation shakes out. If Imei brings as much as Framber brought – that gets them close in my opinion. They should get more out of someone than what they got out of Lance last season and I don’t think Javier will be as below average as he was.
Listened to Carlos on the radio over the weekend – they were at the Astrofest and were sitting down with a number of players – Hunter Brown, Ryan Wess, etc. Carlos was basically saying he wants to be that leader in the clubhouse – now whether somebody can grab that title or if that title must be given to them – I don’t know. He did say he has been working a lot more on his fielding than he usually does in the off-season with the new position. He has also working to get more of a launch angle in his hitting. Spent a lot of time talking about the joy of playing with Altuve, who loves the game so much.
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This is what’s great about our little group here. I am not going to change my mind very often, but your comments at least help me consider the possibility that I might be a bit too critical. Maybe the club is more ready to be a force than I think it is.
As for our guy looking to claim his role as leader, I’m glad I was not listening. Leaders are determined of their peers by their actions rather than their words. I’d like Carlos to be quiet and give us an .800 OPS.
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I guess I’ll play devil’s advocate here daveb, but let’s look at Carlos another way. Whether he is playing at his peak right now or not – there are certain truths about him that will likely drive the younger players to listen.
It is kind of like when Carlos Beltran came back here in 2017 – players listened (I wish for some things they did not listen) but they did listen to him for what he had done in the past – not based on his current capabilities.
Yes, I want him to produce, but even if he doesn’t he should be able to tell them things that will help them be better players. Like what masseuses to avoid.
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I seem to be in the minority here but, this….
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Sargeh, no apologies needed. Time change things though. Beyond the off field discussion, much of which is admittedly conjecture by me, we’ve got an expensive declining Jose Altuve and we’ve got a pretty expensive declining Carlos Correa to join him for the next three years at least. We’ve also got what seems to be an expensive declining first baseman, a guy nobody seems to want, including his own team. I don’t think that’s a great direction for our roster to be going in. Back in the day, it seems the Carlos approach with Framber worked, he jolted him right out of his self pity. But not even Carlos could jolt Framber out of his funk during the 2025 stretch run. We’d have won the division had Dr. Correa had the same effect on Framber that he had at one time.
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Great write up Dan. The crux is the Astros desire to stay affordable coupled with their inability to win in the draft/international signings the way they once did. That 2013-2016 draft classes with those later decade international pitcher signings (some of who should be in their prime leading this staff right now but injuries robbed us of) just isn’t going to be duplicated, and when the franchise decides it is going to pursue “affordable” free agents you can expect there was a reason there wasn’t a giant competition for their services. We used to be the “smart” franchise at analytics. We used to stay away from declines.
Walker is not Yuli. No matter who or how anyone ends up at 3B, they are not Bregman. We’ve never replaced Springer with an actual CFer. As much as Tuck struggled down the stretch, Cam was far worse. Altuve is in clear decline. Yordan can’t stay on the field, which was predictable to be honest. We talked about it here at chipalatta when the contract was signed and we are barely better than casuals. Lance was having issues at the time that the contract was signed, we gave 6 years to a guy that had never (and still has never) had a 30 start season. The Astros used to be good at this stuff.
There was a reason there was no competition for Walker’s services (or Abreu’s). Everyone else saw it. The Mets are going to be relegated to playing Baty and Vientos out of position at 1B, probably with some Polanco also, and they still said no thanks to Walker when I’m guessing we asked for some A ball player no one will ever hear of in exchange. And thats the Mets, the franchise known for bad contracts and an owner that would pay 40M just for a small upgrade. Even they recognize this disaster.
And Carlos Correa is not as good as Isaac Paredes, so I’m salty the Astros even made this trade to begin with. Carlos probably thinks he deserves to name himself the 3B, and doesn’t realize this albatross of a contract is the reason he is there for the next 3 years. Get rid of contracts right now and make them earn the job, my money is on Isaac. Correa has averaged 113 games a year. He is perenially worse in August than he is in June. Talking about guys didn’t work to stay healthy and fresh is ridiculous from him. Isaac Paredes worked his tail off to avoid surgery and try and get back to the field, and if anyone had a reason to mail it in it would be the guy whose position you took and named yourself the franchises new permanent 3B without regard. I agree with some of Dave’s sentiments. Just shutup, stay on the field 140 games, and you are at 3B now not SS, I’m gonna need a .850 OPS. The guy you displaced had a .809, so be better.
That’s the glass half empty guy.
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It’s weird, I feel like teams want to lean into analytics and then see a guy like Paredes and decide since he isn’t a .300 hitter he shouldn’t/couldn’t possibly be the answer at a corner infield position. The best 2026 Astros team certainly has him on it getting 140 starts. The fact he hasn’t been traded already makes me believe Brown is either delusional thinking someone wants Walker and his contract or other teams are lowballing us. Regardless, I’m optimistic Correa is an upgrade at 3B over him. The positional change will hopefully minimize the injuries that sidelined him in MN. I’m not optimistic Correa is an upgrade offensively, but realistically it’s not a huge difference. Paying Correa $10M more per year than Paredes has to be a net loss, but I think giving Walker 450 PA or any number of our outfield options are more likely to torpedo our season. Also, I wish your first 3 paragraphs were wrong, but they’re not.
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But the glass half full guy –
Love the moves Brown made in the offseason to improve the pitching. Imai is a little over the top for this franchise, and its just one year, but if it works out 1 year was still better than no years. Now if it doesn’t work out, it could turn out to be the next bad contract. Burrows, underestimated by the rest of baseball. Weiss, that is kind of low cost investment you make, if he really has found his command over there the way Erik Fedde did. Javier should be better if he stays healthy, and he wasn’t terrible in his return. As long as Hunter stays healthy this rotation has more upside than last years rotation going into ST. Arrighetti needs to command his fastball a little better, but the impediment is command and not stuff, and he will not have the pressure of being the number 3 guy and having to be very good, just focus on the zone and hold it down while we are in a 6 man.
In 2025 the Astros gave up 7 or more runs 34 times. In 2022, it was 17 times. Look a pitcher is going to lose a frustrating game sometimes, 3-1 or 3-2, but the more times they can keep a game in hand, the more wins they end up with generally. This has been Framber’s secret for the last 5 years. He was never the overpowering guy that was going to have some crazy 15 strikeout game, but what he did (until the second half of 2025) was go out and have these crazy strings of consistent starts that kept his team in almost every game he pitched. Just don’t have us look up in the 4th inning and its already 5-1. You don’t win a lot of those games. In that regard, I like the moves they have made given the budgetary restraints they choose to operate with.
The thing is your offense can stink, and you can still stay in the race as the Mariners have for the last few years because your staff keeps you there. It generally can never work the other way around. Hitters can win a game, but pitching wins championships. Same as other sports, offense can win a game, defense wins championships.
As for Correa, there is upside. He has seen 253 3-1 counts in 5344 plate appearances, almost 5% of the time. He generally has a good feel for the zone, and that is something that has been lacking in this lineup for a few years. He did post that .800+ OPS just two years ago, and he isn’t exactly 35. The injuries have robbed him of his best, but maybe a year removed of constant crazy lateral movements required at SS will give his legs the return they need, and he could easily be very good for us. And we know while his range at SS has declined due to the lower leg issues, his arm and glove are intact and he could turn into gold glove third baseman. And Paredes presence, if Joe isn’t lying to me, provides him and Altuve both the days off they need to stay fresh. Just keep Jose out of LF, it serves no one to have him jog out there and back 18 times to be the worst LFer in baseball. Jesus Sanchez can help with that, hit well enough to give Espada confidence you can handle the job most days and we won’t see a lot of Jose in LF.
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But one quick note on Weiss – the Astros gave Weiss 2M, the Blue Jays gave Cody Ponce 10M. We are once again the runner ups. We picked the more affordable instead of the better. There is always a chance that Ryan Weiss ends up better than Cody Ponce, but I would say those chances are fairly remote. That’s what Walker, Correa, Yordan, McCullers, Javier, etc do to you. It’s not just they don’t earn their money, the make it where you have no flexibility and you start having to settle for guys that may end up adding their names to that list.
I’m sure there was a world where people though Pete Alonso wasn’t worth a 30M a year investment. But Pete Alonso would have been a far better player for us in 2025 than Christian Walker was, but we stay under the cloud of so many so-so contracts that we have to stick to so-so contracts, which you can expect at least a small number of so-so’s to become bad contracts like Abreu, and get you stuck in a spin cycle of these because you can’t afford to be in on Ohtani or Judge or any other superstar.
Part of me is thinking after this current 2-3 year cycle of contracts we need another 2011 reset. We need to get out of every contract that is holding us down. 2029 can be the Jose Altuve swan song with Mike Burrows and a bunch of Bud Norris’s while we reset this minor league system. But part of me thinks if we give Hunter the long term deal, if Yainer can develop and get a new contract, if Cam turns into a star, heck maybe even Pena can be re-signed, there is still a future for this franchise to stay competitive for another decade if the right guys come along.
I leave Hader off my list because I think he is a top 3 closer in baseball. But heck, I would never spend 20M a year for a closer, no matter how important I think his 60 innings are. But it’s certainly not a “bad” contract.
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And that was a typo on Correa’s 3-1, he has seen 544 3-1 counts. Over 10%. The major league average is around 7% per year. We need more of that in the lineup.
Devin – we can agree to disagree on Correa v Paredes, but we would probably end up mincing minutia. Correa is at 10.18% at something that baseball does at 7%, and thats put himself in a favorable count. That is certainly an upgrade for the team. Isaac has done it 227 times in 2228 times, almost the exact same percentage. They both are well over .400 averages and .700 OBPs once they get in that position, so they are equally adept at taking care of business getting there. Correa has been a better hitter in his career behind in the count, and that definitely matters.
What I can say is that Carlos only managed 46 PAs at 3-1 last year, in 544 plate appearances. Like most skills, this one also seems to be diminishing some, though still above league average so still a helpful piece to this team. Isaac had 49 in 443 PAs, so still trucking along well above 10%, and at 27 should be entering his prime 2-3 season run.
Regardless we can agree Walker is really the guy that should be jobless.
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Steven, you snowed in?
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lol. No. Just a bit of thoughts when it comes to Correa and how “the back of his baseball card” continues to paint the teams decision making. And the back of his baseball card isn’t even as good as Jose Abreu’s.
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I’m always impressed with your well throughout and researched commentary. I tend to ramble instead, but it seems that we’re more often than not on the same general page.
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Thanks Dave, but really, its the coffee. Mostly.
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Good morning! Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve will not be playing in the WBC, although they wanted to. MLB apparently uses an outside insurance firm to insure all MLB players participating in the WBC against injury, according to Rome. I think this is a good outcome.
With just two weeks before pitchers report, Framber waits. Seems a traditional 5 or 6 year free agent contract from him is becoming a bit of a longshot at this point. I do believe Framber needs a supportive, stable environment to flourish. Will he find that?
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Now that I’m on my second cup of coffee, I realize I had forgotten the most important point. The insurance company deemed both Correa and Jose uninsurable for the WBC. It would have cost too much. I hope these two guys are not overly brittle at this point.
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With the money they are making they should have absolutely no complaints. But if they were unhappy about it , it shows their lack of dedication to the team. Just my opinion. I’m on my first cup of coffee so I’m not yet warmed up. My driveway looks and feels like a skating rink and we’re to get more snow this weekend. Now I know why some people go to Florida for the winter.
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I agree with you that this is a good outcome. We’ve seen a couple of high profile injuries during the WBC already. Watching some of the pitchers go out and dial it up to close to triple digits when they normally work around 90 in early spring training also concerns me. The Framber situation doesn’t surprise me. Maybe Philly swoops in on a shorter deal with some opt-outs?
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Philly could be a brutal environment for Framber to have one of his meltdowns. Houston was probably the most supportive place he could have played.
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Yanier Diaz has a career OPS of .804 when catching. He’s not good as a DH or PH. In a very short sample, he loves to hit when playing first base, he’s just not good at playing first base.
Maybe he should stretch his legs 3 times a month at first.
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