Astros’ offseason: What’s left to do?

The Astros have been active with an almost singular focus this offseason.

Other than unloading a few position players (Mauricio Dubon, Chas McCormick, Ramon Urias and possibly Victor Caritini) their focus has been on beefing up their starting pitching.

This included the signings of Japanese ace Tatsuya Imei, Korean league ace Ryan Weiss, swingman Nate Pearson (though he hasn’t been a starter for a while), and a trade for young, controllable Mike Burrows from Pittsburgh.

Currently, Spotrac projects the Astros to go over the luxury tax by an estimated $4.5 million. This does not account for potential trade-offs in salaries. Rumors have included everyone from Isaac Paredes (~$9 million) to Jake Meyers ($3.5 million) and to Christian Walker (whatever part of $20 million per year for two years you can get someone to swallow).

Whether the Astros stay under the luxury tax or not, there are still some things to potentially do in this off-season.

  • Fill the backup catcher spot – Caratini is a current free agent, who one would think is looking for more playing time than he saw with the Astros. Internally, the Astros have Cesar Salazar, who in small samples has given typical backup catcher numbers in the majors (.232 BA/ .318 OBP/ .586 OPS). Collin Price was so-so with decent power at AAA – .235 BA/ .323 OBP/ .757 OPS/ 18 HRs / 60 RBIs in 2025. 1st rounder (2024) Walker Janek has hit well, but has not played above A ball. On the market are the usual suspects for backups like Mitch Garver, Christian Vazquez, and Austin Hedges (and Caratini).                                                                        

The totally unscientific guess here is that they will fill from within.

  • Address the overloaded infield/DH positions – The Astros don’t technically have to do anything here, but as they stand now, they don’t have enough ABs to go around between Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Carlos Correa, and Isaac Paredes. It seems like Paredes may be the top candidate to get some strong return in a trade, the rumor being that the Red Sox might pivot to him now that Alex Bregman has signed with the Cubs. The Astros might like to trade Walker, but they would not get much back for him, and it would be more of a salary dump.                                                                                

The totally unscientific guess here is that they will trade Paredes – potentially for a big arm to help them down the road in the playoffs.

  • Find a veteran left-handed hitting outfielder – Again, it is possible the Astros don’t do anything here. They tried doing this at the trade deadline and ended up with Jesus Sanche,z who stunk at the plate and in the field the last couple months of the season. Perhaps they will see if Zach Cole still contains the spark he brought to the team at the very end of 2025. Or maybe they will let Cole get his feet wet at AAA after only 51 ABs at Sugar Land last season. They could also see if they can grab a bargain off the free agency heap before Spring Training.

The totally unscientific guess here is that they will do nothing here, see if Sanchez can give them better numbers and if that does not work pivot to someone like Cole.

  • Continue pursuing starting pitching assistance – You can never have too much pitching we are told over and over and the Astros’ injury luck in 2024 and 2025 emphasized that point. Maybe they do pick up another starter in a trade of Paredes. Maybe they grab some gem that no one else wants ala Jason Alexander in 2025. Maybe they decide that A.J. Blubaugh is ready to fill the 6th man in the rotation spot.

The totally unscientific guess here is that they will go with what they have right now – Astros’ 2026: What do the latest starting pitching moves mean? – ALL THINGS ASTROS.

If they need more assistance they can always do something at the trade deadline or wait until the return of Ronel Blanco and/or Heyden Wesneski to fill a spot or two.

  • Add to the bullpen depth – Dana Brown in his short time in the GM seat has done a good job of picking up relievers with spotty or non-existent resumes and turning them into viable or even critical parts in the bullpen. That has included, Steven Okert (picked up as a $1.2 million free agent), Bennett Sousa (picked up off waivers). Tayler Scott (signed as a minimum wage free agent) and Bryan King (technically picked up off waivers one month before Brown’s hiring).

The totally unscientific guess here is that Brown and his scouts will continue to look under every rock for bargain basement bullpen assistance.

Are there other things/positions you think they should be pursuing in this off-season?

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36 responses to “Astros’ offseason: What’s left to do?”

  2. Hey Dan, as a curiosity, what might be your scientific guesses? My unscientific hope is that they don’t trade anymore of their top ten prospects. My feelings are still hurt about losing Brito. They will really be hurt if they trade Frey and Alverez.

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    • I do believe Larry that Dana is not looking to trade any more prospects at this time. The only exception might be if…. he added a prospect to a Paredes trade in order to jack up the return to a #2 type starter.

      There is no science to any of it really. Just best guesses based on watching the baseball world as long as I have.

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  4. Excepting a few teams like the Dodgers no one can afford to get every player on their wish list. I think backup catcher is the most important need at this time. If Paredes blows the budget and needs to go I’ll agree he is the most attractive asset to other teams. We’re going to enter spring training with some questions and I don’t think all of them can be solved. At this point Brown needs to put them in the best position to finish a 162 game season and hope some of the guys play up to their contracts and not in the direction they have trended. Winning always takes some luck.

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  5. Catcher, fill from within.

    Trade Paredes.

    Veteran left handed bat, I’m thinking of a creaky legged guy….but we’ll probably do nothing.

    Pitching assistance? No, not at this point.

    Bullpen depth? At least give me a smile and pick up my old friend Jose Urquidy!

    Alas Dan, this is not your most inspiring post, but indeed it’s one of your more realistic posts, although a bit sobering.

    How’d we end up with what I think is a very flawed team but still be at or above the luxury tax?

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  6. I’ll write what I need to do, “IF I WERE THE GM.”

    First, I would take care of the logjam in the infield. If no one would take on Walker, by the end of this month, I would then actively move Paredes. Yes, it would hurt but something needs to be done. He could bring back a couple of nice prospects, prospects needed in the minors right now.

    Second, move Sanchez. Why did Brown give him a contract, I don’t know. But move him for prospects.

    Third, I am a Verlander cheerleader! If he would give me a hometown discount, then yes, I would sign him immediately. He would fit in nicely as a number three now.

    Fourth, I would begins inroads to see what Abreu is looking for regarding a contract since he is a free agent at the end of this season. If he is not interested, then I would definitely trade him at the deadline.

    Fifth, if the Astros have a eye popping closer in the minors, this season, then I would look to move Hader by the deadline.

    Short, but sweet.

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    • If Verlander doesn’t get 12M from someone before Feb 20th, I could see the Astros getting him back in the fold for 7-8M with incentives. I’m guessing he is looking for more guaranteed money though. Honestly, I love nostalgia, but I don’t know if I’m going over the cap for JV at this point, but if there is cap space and he is there, its not my money.

      Baseball has come a long way in recognizing outs in the 7th and 8th inning are vital too, not just the closer in the 9th. But closers are still the dudes getting paid, no one is going to give Bryan Abreu 17M a year to “setup.” I suspect Abreu and his agent will be looking for a 2-3 year deal to close somewhere. But maybe he just likes it here. Maybe you can convince him to stay. But you would probably have to make him the highest paid non-closer in the game. I would say Hader is probably close to untradeable as Walker is because of the money and the questions about durability. But he probably makes the short list of people that compete for the fireman of the year award this year, so I appreciate having him even if the cap hit was crazy for the closer. Besides, Hader has a full no trade clause, and while yes he could waive it, that always limits the return.

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  7. Good morning! Well, the cynic in daveb7 got the better of me yesterday. It had been a frustrating day in paradise; one of power outages, disappearing internet, long bank lines and frankly, too much right hand drive tourist traffic on the roads. Scary. But I’m still glad I’m here.

    I keep trying to convince myself the Astros will in fact get a deal or two done that will at least make this club make more sense. Joe needs help. He does not need the burden of shuffling infielders from here to there nightly. And he really does need an athletic, established left-handed outfield bat. We don’t have one of them right now. We don’t even have an established right-handed outfield bat right now.

    Joe needs a real back up catcher too. Salazar is a nice guy, but he’s not the answer.

    As far as pitching goes, both starters and pen, well, we’ve got a lot to choose from, although not many lefties to work with. Several pitchers will show us they don’t have what we need come ST. A couple more will be slowed by injury. But for now, I’m going to be positive and hope that we end up with 13 guys on Opening Day that make sense.

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  8. Now that fantasy day is over – thanks for humoring Dan rampant, wild, unachievable speculation is always fun – lets talk about the reality of what we expect them to do.

    I expect that they are waiting for the catching market to play out before they sign a Austin Barnes or a Jonah Heim to catch 40 games. It will be a signing that will be at or close to the major league minimum.

    The rumor from the podcast world, and some of them are like where there is smoke there is…. because they talk to low level officials, Houston and Boston are actually talking a framework around Paredes and a Boston outfielder. I do expect it to happen. I don’t want it to, but I expect it.

    I think they are done adding starters.

    I also think they are done adding bullpen arms that you can expect on the opening day roster, but if they can pick someone up off waivers that has options left or might even make this team as the 8th guy down there, well, they are a take a flyer team.

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    • Yeah, Heim is the guy I’d hope for a bit of a bounce back from.

      As much as we all like Isaac, a Sox lefty outfielder for Paredes just makes sense for both teams.

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  9. And a note on the Red Sox signing of Suarez – 5/130 for Ranger, makes me wonder what Framber is going to get. Ranger has been pretty good, but Framber has been great. Honestly Framber has been better than anyone else that was on the market this year and Cease got the kind of money that you would think he had won 3 Cy Youngs. But that’s here nor there because those contracts are not Astros problems.

    My point is the mlbtraderumors article posted about the Suarez signing suggests that the Red Sox have missed on all 5 infield targets (including Paredes) and decided to focus on fixing pitching, and might be done. Is it possible that if we get to February 15th and the Red Sox still have Marcelo Mayer number 1 on the depth chart at 3B is it possible you could still squeeze Connor Early out of them? They did, after all, just sign a second lefty to their rotation, and still don’t have a lefty in their pen at all. We are still sitting here with a glut of lefties in the pen, and an extra 3B, and a desire for a lefty in our rotation that comes with the label “young, controllable arm.” I don’t see why Breslow and Dana Brown are not roommates at this point.

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    • Wait, I guess maybe they are kind of Astros problems, because they are setting a market for Hunter Brown in a few years that we just won’t match. I didn’t think we would anyway, but by that time, IF he becomes we think he might, he might become the first 40M AAV pitcher.

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    • The articles I’m reading seem to think that now that Suarez is getting paid it’s going to be a frenzied bidding war for Framber, Gallen, JV, and Giolito. To be honest, I think those guys overplayed their hands by waiting. I don’t think Framber is getting a long term deal. The QO drops down how much teams will be willing to give him on a one year deal as well. What shocks me is reading someone thinks Tucker is worth a $50M AAV deal. I really like him as a player, but he has never been the best player on his team. He’s turning 29 this week which means he is likely in his prime right now. Finally, he has a .692 OPS over 72 career postseason games.

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  10. Z – I think Dana Brown is going to be thinking short term because he does not have the confidence that he will not follow Click out the door

    Devin – Frankly the budget is blown by Walker, not Paredes, but Paredes has trade value that Walker does not have.

    daveb and Steven – Yeah after fantasy world – this was my more realistic post. Not sure what will happen between now and Spring Training, but it feels like the potential Paredes move will be the biggest one.

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    • I would add Altuve and Correa, and maybe even Hader, to the budget busters. Paredes is an unfortunate bystander that is caught in the crossfire, because at 26 he should have been signed to a 7 year extension and make the Astros third baseman for the next 9 years. But here we are with Correa killing us.

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      • The Astros are unfortunately locked in with Correa or three seasons and his no trade contract and the potential for options after that. Its about $32 million/yr with the Twins paying $11 million / yr of that.

        Altuve has two more seasons at $33 million and two after that at $13 million. But of course he is getting paid for what he did for us at small salaries early in his career – not what he will produce now.

        Hader – it is too bad he got hurt late in the season – but he was having an absolutely prime time season for us – he gets $19 million a year for three more seasons.

        McCullers – one more season of $17.7 million

        Javier – Two more seasons at $21.4 million

        Of all those – the Correa is probably the worst, but thank goodness Twins are picking up some of that contract.

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      • Got to beat the dead horse once more. Unless Correa is playing like a 30mm/yr player then there’s no way he should get those 575 PA in 2028.

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  11. Dan, I can’t quite put a finger on it, but something is missing. I’m not a fan of the Correa deal, but in the clubhouse, I think he’ll provide a spark that hasn’t been there.

    Yes, Paredes would be better at 1B than Walker and I’d even put him there to start the season with Walker on the bench if necessary.

    However, Walker did have a decent second half split and slash line. What can he do if he stays injury-free? Is it worth the risk?

    Still, there’s something missing for me. You have some decent arms, but who is the leader? Will Hunter step into the veteran leader role?

    Are Altuve-Correa-Yordan the ones who will cement the synergy on offense and in the field?

    Instead of asking What’s Left, I’m wondering…What’s Missing? And i don’t necessarily mean “people”, if that makes sense.

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    • He’ll look nice in that uniform. We’re trying to keep our 26 man roster at around 240 million for the 2026 season. I’m guessing the Dodgers told Boras early on that they’d beat any offer, then sat back and waited. Since the birth of Free Agency, baseball fans have been wringing their hands over the explosion of salaries ruining the game. The difference now is that some MLB owners will be joining fans. It’s already hard for the majority of MLB teams to remain relevant. In the meantime, the players association obviously will battle against any kind of cap. The winter of 2027 could be a long one.

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  14. Going forward, I don’t see another Jose Altuve playing his full career for the Astros in my lifetime. In retrospect, it was probably an emotional business decision, certainly not a good one. The Astros will need to move Pena before he reaches Free Agency. Same with Hunter Brown. And hopefully Cam Smith too. That’s going to be the only way to continually reinvigorate this club if they can’t figure out a way to turn the minor system around. Any well run organization these days has access to most all the same prospects the Astros do. While the Astros will always try compete as long as Jim Crane is around, we might have some dormant years ahead of us.

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  15. Tucker’s is the largest contract per year in actual value by $6 million. Ohtani’s is larger per season but so much of it is deferred – much more than what is deferred for Tucker – that Tucker’s is the biggest.

    Plus he can opt out after two seasons.

    This is gonzo crazy.

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  16. “Greed, for lack of a better word is good” (Gordon Gekko, Wall Street).

    But there is no joy in Fansville – You’ve just been struck out.

    1 Timothy 6:10 KJV – For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.

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  18. Well, with Bichette going to the Mets, the Sox and Astros might still be talking.

    I don’t think there will much of a chance of retaining Pena in the future. I think we’re better off getting what we can for him when the opportunity is best.

    I also think the Sox wanted Ranger more than they wanted Framber. They could have paid what he’ll end up costing.

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  19. Framber might be looking for whatever he can get soon. If he was in demand like the others who’ve already signed he’d be gone but I’m not sure anybody wants to take that chance on a long term deal. I think he’ll eventually sign a short term deal for around 20-25MM but I might be wrong. As we used to say in Saudi way back then, “A camel #@$6 in my mess kit”. i think that applies to Framber.

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  20. Our friend Victor Caratini got 2 years and 7 million a year from the Twins. That’s pretty good money for a backup catcher.

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    • I watched both the Panthers/Rams and Texans/Patriots game and both quarterbacks were severely over matched in both contests. Lack of maturity did both of them in. Yes there were other things that contributed but I was extremely disappointed in both performances. Some of the worst attempts at passing by Stroud that I have ever witnessed. 5 Int’s, 5 fumbles and 2 lost. Yes the patriots were on Stroud almost every time but he just didn’t have his act together.

      Every team that I have pulled for in the playoffs has lost so maybe I jinxed them.

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