It’s one of those dead days of winter where not much is happening anywhere in the baseball world. Hey, those folks have families, and just like with most businesses, the last couple of weeks of the year are filled with vacation time.
So, today we will just unzip the ol’ noggin here and see what falls out.
Manager Joe Espada may face his most interesting lineup challenges since he took over.
What is written here could flip on a dime. Dana Brown might unclog the infield with a trade of Christian Walker or Isaac Paredes. Brown might make a deal to bring in another left-handed bat for the outfield. A (God forbid) serious injury might open up playing time somewhere in the lineup.
But if not, it will be interesting how Espada handles the overflow of having five full-time infielders (Walker, Paredes, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Jeremy Pena), especially when:
- Espada has been emphasizing the need to play Yordan Alvarez as much as possible at DH (lessening the opportunity to rotate others into that spot). Alvarez’s health the key to slugger succeeding in ’26
- The failure of the Altuve left field experiment in 2025
Beyond that, there will be questions about how he will fill the outfield spots. Will Jake Meyers still be here, and if so, will he continue his solid hitting from 2025? Will Jesus Sanchez shake off his poor play at the end of 2025 and be a contributor? Is Zach Cole the real thing? Will top prospect Brice Matthews get a shot at the outfield with an overfull infield blocking his way? Would the Astros do the almost unthinkable and send Cam Smith back to the minors for seasoning? Does Zach Dezenzo get a shot to help at the corner outfield spots? How much will they actually play Yordan Alvarez in left field? Will Altuve play there at all?
How much “return to the mean” will happen in 2026?
Looking at the following….
- Christian Walker slashed .265 BA/ .311 OBP/ .793 OPS/ 19 HRs/ 54 RBIs on the road last season. So, the talent is still there to lift his overall sucky numbers (.238/.297/.717) to something more palatable – more like his three seasons before coming to the Astros.
- For Yordan Alvarez it is not just about playing more games. His stats when he did play were not up to his high standards. (Yes, trying to play through injury may explain some of that). He only hit 6 homers in 199 plate appearances, which meant he was headed towards less than 20 homers on the season. His slash of .273 BA/ .367 OBP/ .797 OPS while good for mortals was well below his career numbers of .298 BA/ .390 OBP/ .973 OPS heading into the 2025 season. A return toward his mean would be a big boost to this lineup.
- I like Jake Meyers. I really do. He plays centerfield with his hair on fire – getting to balls most players wave at (don’t ask me about his noodle arm). But I think it is a good bet that he will not repeat the .292 BA and .354 OBP numbers in 2026. That is because he will not likely repeat the luck it took to produce a .353 BAbip (Batting average on balls in play) when the MLB average was .290 BAbip.
- A lot of people (including myself) may think that Lance McCullers Jr. has no business getting close to a major league mound after having a disaster of a 2025 partial season. But….the Astros still owe him $17.7 million for 2026 and would be very happy to get something positive out of the situation. His stats for 2025 from every angle were very bad vs. his career numbers. If he can trend back closer to the career 3.48 ERA/ 1.251 WHIP he sported before 2025, he could bring value to the team while they wait for the injured to potentially return.
- Jason Alexander’s 4-2 record with a 3.66 ERA at 32 years old for the Astros in 2025 after being picked up from the A’s scrap heap was not expected. If he returns to his mean, he will not be with the team very long in 2026. (But I would love to experience one of those Charlie Morton stories where the Astro alchemists make gold from tin).
What do the 2026 Astros want to be when they grow up?
This is kind of between Owner Jim Crane and GM Dana Brown. Is their primary goal to reset the luxury tax? Do they want to get younger (cheaper) in 2026? Are they seeing this as their last chance to win in what appears to be a closing window of opportunity? How happy are they with the team as it sits right now?
One of the things Jeff Luhnow was able to do was skate through the narrow gate between winning now and sustaining the future. Is Brown able to follow in those shoes or is he the “patcher” that friend of the blog, daveb called him?
This one will be revealed slowly over the off-season and up to the trade deadline. At least that is my belief.
What random thoughts are coming to you today?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
9 responses to “Random thoughts on Astros’ offseason”
Somewhat random thought, even though it has been put on here before but not discussed… if the club does not make the playoffs this upcoming season, perhaps Crane could pay Luhnow a million dollars to name a protégé, that he likes himself, to become the next Astros GM. As you stated above, Luhnow could skate well.
LikeLike
That’s an interesting thought Sarge. I think we do know that Luhnow would not likely help the Astros out for any amount of money.
Luhnow did a great job building the team into a powerhouse, but it was also a case of right place right time. He was able to convince the owner to live through a complete tear down and a long rebuild – to be patient as a team that had never lost 100 games in their history suffered through progressively worse 100 loss seasons.
Is there another Luhnow out there? I don’t know. The most successful teams around, the Dodgers, seem to get there by the brute force of just spending everyone under the table.
LikeLiked by 1 person
To date anyway, Joe has not been handed a very practical line up to work with. We’ll see what happens, but it’s definitely not all on him.
If Jake is still around, I’ve got to figure the season will start with him and Zach Cole in some kind of a platoon. I also think Jesus Sanchez, primarily based on his historical stats, is a better player than he showed us in 2025. He sure looked bad though.
I hope the other Zach gets a chance too. At this point, someone, anyone could claim left field. More likely a revolving door though.
I’m not sure if Joe and Dana are on the same page as far as what Yordan’s role will be.
It would be helpful, and probably make Joe’s job a bit easier not to have to juggle Walker and Paredes. Got to move one of them, even if it’s Isaac. And I’m not thrilled about that possibility unless Dana can really get solid value for him. If not pitching, then a solid lefty everyday bat for the outfield. He’d be 30 million cheaper at third for the Sox than Alex was. And the Sox do have a budget.
I’m most concerned about Christian Walker’s approach at the plate. It’s like he gave up on too many at bats. He threw in the towel rather than battling. Those 177 K’s were easily a career high.
Got to hope Lance has figured out his command issues. I have no further expectation of Jason Alexander.
I’ll be much more opinionated once I’ve seen the Opening Day roster. Admittedly, I’m back to being a bit cynical though.
LikeLike
Yes, I don’t expect Joe to be given a better hand this time around – I expect him to really struggle with the lineups, if…. Walker and Paredes are still here.
Walker at times reminded me of Chris Carter, who similarly would look like he was hoping the ball would hit his bat. But at other times, like on the road, he looked competent.
I will be interested in where this team goes this off-season and this year. I’m not sure if I am hopeful or not about it.
LikeLike
I don’t see a world where Correa, Walker and Paredes are all on this roster when ST starts, or maybe ends. If they thought Paredes could play 2B Espada would have never mentioned that Altuve will be at 2B.
Trading for Correa was a terrible decision. He has trending numbers that demonstrate a slowing eye and indecision creeping in at the plate. He had the first season in his career below 10% in BB rate. His pull rates are crawling from him and his opposite field percentage was its highest ever. I don’t think he falls off a cliff, but we will be lucky if he posts a .275 average with a .325 OBP, and maybe he hits 15 or 20, but there will be these gaps in between that are going to sting.
Correa has a no trade clause. Walker has many of those same traits. They just are not tradeable. So it falls on Paredes. Bregman is the domino to be honest. Bregman goes to Boston, Paredes value takes a hit as a team with a great set of prospects to deal with no longer have a need, and it falls to maybe Philly or Chicago. If you could get Chicago to give you Horton and, say, Alcantara, I’m in, but I don’t see that. Same with the Yankees and Schlittler. Boston just seems the best match with Early and Tolle.
If the lineup needs to find space for all 3 to share 2 spots, I doubt you would see Walker or Correa sit. They would just be bidding time until an injury, say Pena goes down for 3 weeks, bam the lineup just got easier to sort. Are they really willing to let Paredes play some 2B? Maybe. They worked him out there during rehab before coming back from the hammy, and never mentioned it again for a reason.
The biggest return to the mean they could use is not being second in all of baseball in IL days. Just get to the middle of the pack. 1100 days instead of 1500+. We already know Wesneski and Blanco will be adding a chunk. Just, give us health, at least some.
LikeLike
As for what are they when they grow up? I don’t think Brown goes beyond the next 30 minutes. He GM’s like he has ADHD.
Patcher Brown is a great nickname. Thanks Dave. This pitching staff is constant bubble game and scotch tape and see if it holds. Some luck with Walter (now a part of the walking wounded) and Alexander, but neither seem likely to repeat. The bullpen is almost all waiver claims or rule 5 guys. When you build your bullpen from waiver claims, and they pitch well for a season, what is expected the next season? We have a history of getting things from guys no one else sees anything in, but we also have a history of some of those players being abysmal failures the next year.
Overall I don’t get the sense there is a lot of foresight. Like, even we as fans shrugged out loud at taking Correa’s contract off of Minnesota. 63 million over the next 3 years is a steep price to pay for him to displace a player that is better to him to begin with. It’s insanity, almost as insane as trading for Nolan Arenado is. I’m just dumbfounded that a franchise that is unwilling to pay players their market value will go find these over the hill guys that are making more than their current market value to replace them. What is happening is unexplainable to me. Next year Correa, Altuve, and Walker will account for roughly 25% of the total salaries and none of them are likely to give you their value. What world are we in when a franchise willingly does this to itself and then just sits on it hands and hopes they are close to a semblance of their old selves to give you a chance to compete?
This is why Crane has to understand he needs to put the cap aside while these guys play out this stretch. He just isn’t going to do it. I’m not saying you give Cease 210M for the next 7, but damn the torpedoes, you can match any offer thats made to Chris Bassitt and let him be your number for the next 2 years, if it takes a 3rd vesting option year, so be it. Doesn’t have to be Tucker or Bellinger, go get Tauchmann to offset Sanchez and Smith in the corners, with Cole and Meyers in CF. Bring back Caratini. Junis can probably be signed for 1 year, 2M, and gives you the right handed seventh inning guy to share those duties with King. Be willing to go slightly over. Quit sitting on your laurels while these role players keep disappearing around you. And quit patching with nothing but minimum wage guys. No one wants to see Trammell, Hummel, Short, Guillorme, the list goes on and on.
LikeLiked by 1 person
You’re not wrong, but I think Crane needs to stay under the cap, move tradeable players for good prospects, and show some restraint to not promote guys just to inject some excitement. We’ve made this bed of mediocrity and need to lie in it rather than mortgaging more of the future. Of course, I say that being concerned they can develop another set of homegrown stars to bring them back to the top of the league. For 2026 you can talk yourself into a number of things happening: the rotation is healthy enough to get through the season, Correa’s health is managed, someone talks sense into Altuve and Walker at the plate, Javier bounces back, etc. I don’t think the Mariners are amazing, but wish we had their rotation. There isn’t one single signing or trade that makes you an immediate favorite in the league or even the division…so just don’t do anything stupid that will ruin 2027 and beyond for little gain.
LikeLike
I am hoping the new Robo-Umps/ABS system will help the Astros hitters this season. It seemed to me that we often got bad ball/strike calls against us compared to other teams. Maybe umpires thought we didn’t get punished enough for “IT” and decided to take matters into their own hands. And maybe that led to guys chasing more pitches outside the zone because they saw the umpire would call them strikes anyway.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Steven – The Correa trade just seems so short sighted – a long-term obligation with diminishing returns for a short-term need. And if it costs this team Paredes, who is the one guy on this team that really works the count and then does something with it when the pitcher gives in…it is just a shot in the heart.
AstroNut – I wonder if all teams think they will prosper with the Robo-umps. I am still afraid our hitters are just not disciplined enough anyways.
LikeLike