It’s one of those dead days of winter where not much is happening anywhere in the baseball world. Hey, those folks have families, and just like with most businesses, the last couple of weeks of the year are filled with vacation time.
So, today we will just unzip the ol’ noggin here and see what falls out.
Manager Joe Espada may face his most interesting lineup challenges since he took over.
What is written here could flip on a dime. Dana Brown might unclog the infield with a trade of Christian Walker or Isaac Paredes. Brown might make a deal to bring in another left-handed bat for the outfield. A (God forbid) serious injury might open up playing time somewhere in the lineup.
But if not, it will be interesting how Espada handles the overflow of having five full-time infielders (Walker, Paredes, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Jeremy Pena), especially when:
- Espada has been emphasizing the need to play Yordan Alvarez as much as possible at DH (lessening the opportunity to rotate others into that spot). Alvarez’s health the key to slugger succeeding in ’26
- The failure of the Altuve left field experiment in 2025
Beyond that, there will be questions about how he will fill the outfield spots. Will Jake Meyers still be here, and if so, will he continue his solid hitting from 2025? Will Jesus Sanchez shake off his poor play at the end of 2025 and be a contributor? Is Zach Cole the real thing? Will top prospect Brice Matthews get a shot at the outfield with an overfull infield blocking his way? Would the Astros do the almost unthinkable and send Cam Smith back to the minors for seasoning? Does Zach Dezenzo get a shot to help at the corner outfield spots? How much will they actually play Yordan Alvarez in left field? Will Altuve play there at all?
How much “return to the mean” will happen in 2026?
Looking at the following….
- Christian Walker slashed .265 BA/ .311 OBP/ .793 OPS/ 19 HRs/ 54 RBIs on the road last season. So, the talent is still there to lift his overall sucky numbers (.238/.297/.717) to something more palatable – more like his three seasons before coming to the Astros.
- For Yordan Alvarez it is not just about playing more games. His stats when he did play were not up to his high standards. (Yes, trying to play through injury may explain some of that). He only hit 6 homers in 199 plate appearances, which meant he was headed towards less than 20 homers on the season. His slash of .273 BA/ .367 OBP/ .797 OPS while good for mortals was well below his career numbers of .298 BA/ .390 OBP/ .973 OPS heading into the 2025 season. A return toward his mean would be a big boost to this lineup.
- I like Jake Meyers. I really do. He plays centerfield with his hair on fire – getting to balls most players wave at (don’t ask me about his noodle arm). But I think it is a good bet that he will not repeat the .292 BA and .354 OBP numbers in 2026. That is because he will not likely repeat the luck it took to produce a .353 BAbip (Batting average on balls in play) when the MLB average was .290 BAbip.
- A lot of people (including myself) may think that Lance McCullers Jr. has no business getting close to a major league mound after having a disaster of a 2025 partial season. But….the Astros still owe him $17.7 million for 2026 and would be very happy to get something positive out of the situation. His stats for 2025 from every angle were very bad vs. his career numbers. If he can trend back closer to the career 3.48 ERA/ 1.251 WHIP he sported before 2025, he could bring value to the team while they wait for the injured to potentially return.
- Jason Alexander’s 4-2 record with a 3.66 ERA at 32 years old for the Astros in 2025 after being picked up from the A’s scrap heap was not expected. If he returns to his mean, he will not be with the team very long in 2026. (But I would love to experience one of those Charlie Morton stories where the Astro alchemists make gold from tin).
What do the 2026 Astros want to be when they grow up?
This is kind of between Owner Jim Crane and GM Dana Brown. Is their primary goal to reset the luxury tax? Do they want to get younger (cheaper) in 2026? Are they seeing this as their last chance to win in what appears to be a closing window of opportunity? How happy are they with the team as it sits right now?
One of the things Jeff Luhnow was able to do was skate through the narrow gate between winning now and sustaining the future. Is Brown able to follow in those shoes or is he the “patcher” that friend of the blog, daveb called him?
This one will be revealed slowly over the off-season and up to the trade deadline. At least that is my belief.
What random thoughts are coming to you today?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 