Astros’ pitching: A legacy of sow’s ear to silk purse

During the Astros’ Renaissance, the one consistent positive that has kept the team competitive for the last decade has been their ability to squeeze goodness or greatness out of small or no investments in pitching. Some of these were internal development, some were international signings, and some were picking up other teams’ discards. The development of valuable assets for minimal investments made the expensive investments in Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Josh Hader and Zack Greinke possible.

There are many examples.

Dallas Keuchel (2012-2018)

  • Investment. Seventh-round draft choice out of the University of Arkansas
  • Return. Most soft-tossing seventh-round draft picks end up being minor league filler or AAAA-level pitchers. Keuchel gave the Astros a 76-63 record with a 3.66 ERA in 7 seasons with the big club. This included the peak performances in 2015 (20-8, 2.48 ERA, Cy Young winner – top 5 MVP) and 2017 (14-5, 2.90 ERA). He also made two All Star teams and won four Gold Gloves during his tenure.
  • Highlight. His shutdown of the Yankees in the 2015 Wild Card game will always be a highlight.

Collin McHugh (2014-2019)

  • Investment. Nada – they picked him up on waivers before the 2014 season.
  • Return. McHugh was picked up as a 26-year-old journeyman with a 0-8, 8.98 ERA career number after 15 appearances with the Mets and Rockies over the previous two seasons. He then put up a 58-35 record with a 3.63 ERA in 6 seasons with the Astros.
  • Highlights. Highlights were a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish in 2014, an 8th place finish in the Cy Young race in 2015 (19-7, 3.89 ERA), and an excellent 58 games out of the bullpen in 2018 (6-2, 1.99 ERA).

Charlie Morton (2017-2018)

  • Investment. Signed as a free agent for 2 years / $14 million in a “what the heck are they thinking” move
  • Return. Morton was signed after putting up a mind-boggling bad 46-71 record with a 4.54 ERA after nine seasons with the Braves, Pirates, and Phils.  He was great in his two seasons with the Astros, posting a 29-10 record with a 3.36 ERA and earning a 2018 All-Star selection.
  • Highlights. Two highlights stand out: he was an integral part of the Astros’ two 2017 Game 7 wins. He threw 5 shutout innings against the Yankees enroute to a win in Game 7 of the ALCS. Then, in the most wonderful game in most of our fan lives, he picked up the win by giving up one run in four closeout innings in Game 7 of the World Series win over the Dodgers.

Brad Peacock (2013-2020)

  • Investment. In the offseason before 2013 the Astros traded Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez Jr. for Peacock, Chris Carter and Max Stassi. (They then re-signed Lowrie as a free agent after the 2014 season).
  • Return. Peacock gave the Astros a 34-31 record and 3 saves with a 4.11 ERA over 8 seasons with the team. But the 4 seasons from 2016 to 2019 were even better with a 23-14 record, 3 saves and a 3.48 ERA. He pitched well out of the bullpen and as a starter for the team.
  • Highlight. During the 2017 season, the team struggled with a string of injuries to its starting pitching. Peacock stepped up and went 13-2 with a 3.00 ERA and was a key factor in their championship run.

Framber Valdez (2018 – 2025)

  • Investment. The Astros signed Framber for $10,000 as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic.
  • Return. Over 8 seasons, Valdez totaled an 81-52 record with a 3.36 ERA. He was a two-time All-Star, four times in the top 11 of the Cy Young, and two times in the top 20 of the MVP races.
  • Highlight. In the 2022 postseason championship run, he was 3-0 in 4 starts with a 1.44 ERA and won his two World Series starts.

Cristian Javier (2020-2025)

  • Investment. The Astros signed Cristian for $10,000 as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic.
  • Return. In 6 seasons, Javier has produced a 35-22 record with a 3.66 ERA. He came in third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2020.
  • Highlight. The Astros were down 2 games to 1 to the Phils in the 2022 World Series and were coming off a 7-0 drilling where Lance McCullers gave up 5 home runs in his last start for a long while. Javier repeated a feat he had performed in the regular season as he put up 6 no-hit innings as part of a multi-pitcher no-hitter that turned the WS and the Phils on their collective ears.

Luis Garcia (2020-2025)

  • Investment. The Astros signed Luis for $10,000* as an international free agent out of Venezuela. *Note – could not verify this number exactly – but it is in the area.
  • Return. In 5 seasons, Garcia put up a record of 29-19 and a 3.60 ERA. He was the AL Rookie of the Year runner up in 2021.
  • Highlight. In the 2022 ALDS against Seattle, Garcia threw 5 shutout innings and earned the win in the Astros 1-0, 18 inning conquest of the M’s. This Game 3 win moved them on to the ALCS against the Yankees.

Jose Urquidy (2019 – 2025)

  • Investment. The Astros signed Jose for $100,000 (a bit higher than others but still a bargain as an international free agent out of Mexico).
  • Return. In 6 seasons he produced a 27-16 record with a 4.00 ERA. His 2021-2022 seasons when he was 21-11 with a 3.81 ERA were his best.
  • Highlight. Some of his best work was in the 3 World Series he pitched in as he:
    • Threw 5.2 scoreless innings in 2 games against the Nats in 2019 and picked up a win.
    • Picked up the only 2 Astro wins in the 2021 WS loss to the Braves.
    • Threw 3 scoreless innings in his only appearance against the Phils in 2022.

Bryan Abreu (2019-2025)

  • Investment. The Astros signed Bryan for $40,000 as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic.
  • Return. In 7 seasons with the Astros Abreu has produced 16-12 record, 16 saves, a 2.65 ERA as he has grown into the Astros solid 8th inning stopper.
  • Highlights. His two season zenith (2022-2023) where he went 7-2 and a 1.84 ERA in 127 games has been his top, but he has been very good since the 2022 season.

There have been other low investment decent return players, including:

The point being that the way the Astros has been building their pitching staff has included the bigger salaries like Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, but also many discount over-achievers.

Will Ryan Weiss and/or Michael Burrows join the list of players who provided far above the Astros’ investment?

That’s what we tune in to see.

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8 responses to “Astros’ pitching: A legacy of sow’s ear to silk purse”

  1. Hmmm. Common denominator on all those pitchers in the detail list. All drafted or signed or traded or a waiver pick up by which regime???? Jeff Luhnow’s. That regime had some swings and misses of course. But they also hit a bunch of homers that reverberated through that entire renaissance / golden age.

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    • Click had some acquisitions, but nothing as impactful as during Luhnow’s run – Graveman, Stanek, Neris, Rafael Montero, and Maton stand out. Brown’s moves that spring to mind are Justin Verlander, Yusei Kikuchi, and Josh Hader. Not mentioned feathers in Luhnow’s cap would also be Ryan Pressly and Will Harris. You’re right that without all those moves under him to stock the farm and the big league club we don’t have a sustained run.

      But to Dan’s list, Keuchel and McHugh were value draft picks / signings. Morton was a little bigger of a splash given the money investment. Peacock was part of a package of prospects. The other guys were international free agent signings. Scouting is supposedly a huge strength of Brown so we hope/need to see some of these diamond in the rough and international players pan out.

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  2. Good morning. On the pitching end, the Astros seemed to be ahead of everyone else in the scouting and development department. Starting with Luhnow, the Astros were more creative. They turned over every rock. Presumably they really did have a batch of nerds in the cave analyzing stuff nobody really had before.

    Problem now is that everyone else has caught up. And I’m not sure if Dana Brown is the guy to take us to the next level. How come we don’t have enough left handed bats that can hit? Same issue every year. It’s a huge season for the Astros. Do we stay relevant or become an afterthought? I think Dana is a patcher. That’s not good enough. He needs several of his acquisitions to make solid impacts this year. He needs a Zach to turn into a MLB player. He really needs Smith to blossom. Of course, after 2026 we might not be watching MLB for a while.

    That’s a discussion for down the road a bit.

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  3. Good morning. On the pitching end, the Astros seemed to be ahead of everyone else in the scouting and development department. Starting with Luhnow, the Astros were more creative. They turned over every rock. Presumably they really did have a batch of nerds in the cave analyzing stuff nobody really had before.

    Problem now is that everyone else has caught up. And I’m not sure if Dana Brown is the guy to take us to the next level. How come we don’t have enough left handed bats that can hit? Same issue every year. It’s a huge season for the Astros. Do we stay relevant or become an afterthought? I think Dana is a patcher. That’s not good enough. He needs several of his acquisitions to make solid impacts this year. He needs a Zach to turn into a MLB player. He really needs Smith to blossom. Of course, after 2026 we might not be watching MLB for a while.

    That’s a discussion for down the road a bit.

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  4. noisily – Yes, Luhnow brought in more of the low cost pitchers. It did help that they had the first shot in waivers for some of those pickups.

    Devin – I almost put Pressly on the list – I should have put Will Harris on – just dropped the ball.

    daveb – We need some patching at times – all teams do – but if we want to reach the next level we need some home runs here like you say. I think Cam has a lot of talent and might break out. Zach Cole has to show me he is going to strike out less than 30% of the time at least.

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