Astros’ 2026: Dealing from a position of weakness

One of the more interesting things in the early off-season is watching the Astros machinations as they address or don’t address their outfield situation.

As most fans can attest, the Astros’ outfield was their weakest offensive link in 2025. Here is how their positions compared to those of other American League teams. What is shown are their cumulative numbers for everyone playing each position in 2025.

PositionBAOBPOPSHRRBI
LF.222.300.64516 HR64 RBI
 13th in AL13th14th12th9th
CF.260.330.6816 HR37 RBI
 3rd in AL3rd8th13th15th
RF.234.306.67215 HR67 RBI
 8th8th10th12th9th

Left field was a mess. Right field is just below average – though if you graphed it, it fell off the cliff with Cam Smith’s lack of production in the second half of the season. Center field looks good in the two areas that Jake Meyers succeeded in – batting average and on-base percentage. But, even with Meyers hitting at the end of the lineup – 37 RBIs is a pathetic number for a season from the CF position.  

Who was responsible for those numbers in 2025?

  • Cam Smith – 441 ABs / .236 BA/ .312 OBP/ .671 OPS
  • Jake Meyers – 343 ABs/ .292 BA/ .354 OBP/ .727 OPS
  • Jose Altuve – 174 ABs (in LF) / .264 BA/ .323 OBP/ .742 OPS
  • Jesus Sanchez – 146 ABs / .199 BA / .269 OBP/ .611 OPS
  • Taylor Trammell – 117 ABs / .197 BA/ .296 OBP/ .630 OPS
  • Chas McCormick – 100 ABs / .210 BA/ .279 OBP/ .561 OPS
  • Mauricio Dubon – 97 ABS (LF,CF,RF) – .165 BA/ .214 OBP/ .461 OPS
  • Cooper Hummel – 87 ABs – .172 BA / .301 OBP/ .577 OPS
  • Zach Dezenzo – 82 ABs (in LF and RF) – 82 ABs / .220 BA/ .323 OBP/ .742 OPS
  • Jacob Melton – 70 ABs – .157 BA/ .234 OBP/ .419 OPS
  • Yordan Alvarez – 49 ABs in LF – .408 BA/ .500 OBP/ 1.092 OPS
  • Zach Cole – 47 ABs – .255 BA/ .327 OBP/ .880 OPS

The folks shown in bold italics are either gone from the club, or, in Altuve’s situation, it sounds like the LF experiment may be over.

On top of the folks who are gone, there have been news stories about the Astros attempting to trade Jake Meyers and/or Jesus Sanchez this offseason. If they happened to trade both of them, they would only have one of the players with the 8th most outfield ABs from 2025 still available to them.

So, let’s take a look at what the returning outfield looks like.

  • Cam Smith – on the plus side, the rookie was one of the Gold Glove finalists in RF, which he had never played before. On July 5, he had terrific numbers. If he had kept his .292 BA on that day to the end of the season, he would have been 2nd among AL RFs, his .357 OBP would have been second, and his .801 OPS would have been 4th. But he didn’t. In his last 59 games, he plummeted with a .153 BA/ .248 OBP/ .479 OPS slash down the stretch. And despite what Dana Brown says, they have to believe that good Cam will win over bad Cam in 2026. But will he?
  • Jake Meyers – if Jake is with the team, he would be coming off his best offensive season in the majors and would be likely to man CF again (if he can stay on the field). But the fact that they are shopping him around may point to the fact that a) They think 2025 was a mirage, or b) His offensive best is pretty lacking in the power and run-producing areas.
  • Jesus Sanchez – The Astros traded 3 prospects for him at the trade deadline and now would probably take a 1 for 1 trade in exchange for the OF. He was supposed to shore up a lineup lacking left-handed bats and to help with the slumping Cam Smith spot, and instead, they got a player who hit poorly and fielded worse.
  • Zach Dezenzo – He hit relatively well among the outfielders, but let’s face it – it was a low bar to exceed. Is he really an OF or is he a corner infielder? Is he a good enough fielder to roam the outfield? Can he stay healthy?
  • Jacob Melton – He is rated the Astros’ second-highest prospect. He looked good in the field. He looked lost at the plate with no power and little contact ability in his short time up. Will he pick up the pace with another shot at the majors? It is likely we will find out.
  • Yordan Alvarez – His .408 BA/ .500 OBP/ 1.092 OPS slash while playing LF explains why Joe Espada was talking about getting him more games in the outfield (plus the fact they need Altuve to DH often). Maybe he can top out by playing half the season in LF, but whatever he does, he will certainly have the best stats in the outfield.
  • Zach Cole – His strong showing at the end of 2025 got the fans excited. Now, not to rain too much on the parade, but a) He had a .348 BAbip, which is a good bit higher / luckier than the MLB average which runs closer to .290 and b) He struck out 38.5% of his ABs which does not bode well for sustainability of his good numbers. If he is going to stick next season – he needs to knock that K percentage down……a lot.

No other top 30 OF prospects played above AA in 2025. Their best OF prospect may be Kevin Alvarez, but he has to be at least 2 or 3 years away. A Joseph Sullivan or a Lucas Spence may worm their way up in 2026, but they look like they have a ways to go. Maybe top prospect Brice Matthews will get shifted to OF in order to slide him around the jam in the MLB infield.

The bottom line is, even if they don’t trade Meyers or Sanchez, the 2026 outfield situation looks a bit dicey right now.

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18 responses to “Astros’ 2026: Dealing from a position of weakness”

  1. If he’s still around and healthy, Zach Dezenzo is my left fielder until he proves he should not be our left fielder. We’re not going to pay for an outfielder are we? Cooper Hummel? Taylor Trammell? They are gone, thankfully. What have we got to lose with Zach?

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    • I like the idea of Zach developing into a corner outfield power bat. I just don’t think it will be full time in 2026 as they stick Yordan out there half the time to open up DH ABs for the over crowded infield. Unless they trade Walker (please yes) or Paredes (please no).

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      • I think it was Dana Brown who was pushing the Yordan playing a lot of LF. Dana and Joe often give different views on the same subject.

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    • On paper I like the idea of Zach being our LF, RF, or 1B for the majority of starts. The reality is he hasn’t been healthy enough to play through pretty much any season thus far. I still have high hopes for Cam Smith. I don’t know that he could be a full-time CF, but similar to Zach I think he could play well at many positions on the diamond and small adjustments at the plate should put him back in the right trajectory.

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  2. Dan, you mentioned Kevin Alverez, the 17 year old outfielder as our top hope for the future in the outfield. He is is our 8th rated prospect. The number 9th rated is Ethan Frey (21) who has the same prospect numbers.. You might remember that I am an LSU homer, but I have kept up with this kid since his high school days in Rosepine, La. in Vernon Parish which is where I was originally from .His college years were hampered because of a shoulder injury, but after mid season, last year, he was LSU’s best hitter as they won the college world series. He has good bat speed and has a good understanding of the strike zone and doesn’t chase pitches. The Astros put him in low A for his stint last summer. I predict that he will move through the system very fast.

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    • Thanks for the scouting report Larry. I will be first to confess that knowledge of our prospects is a real weakness of mine.

      I’m sure Chip Bailey would be big on Frey also as he is a big Tiger fan too. I’ll be really happy if both those young man make it big with the Astros. The best way to keep that payroll down is to hit the jackpot on developing prospects.

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    • Frey is pretty exciting. He got off to a slow start but was on fire at the end of the year. Every time he steps to the plate you think he might destroy the ball.

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  3. This may not be the best plan but here goes. With the rising ridiculous salaries it would seem that in the last year of a players contract who is going to become a free agent and does not want to sign with the Astros that we trade them for additional young players. This keeps the payroll low should we want to acquire a needed player and the continual replenishing of the farm system. This was done with Tucker and should have been done with Framber but I understand why it wasn’t. I would say our current strategy isn’t working so well at least so far.

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    • This season, the only player that might fit that description is Bryan Abreu. If we can’t extend him, we probably should trade him.

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  4. Patrick Mahomes suffered a torn ACL in the 4th quarter against the Chargers as KC got knocked out of the post season for the first time in ten years. Tough business. What I found interesting is that the club announced the MRI results at 8:16 PM, just a few hours after the injury.

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    • Yes, slightly faster than the Astros taking X-rays and then having to revisit imaging weeks or months later……

      I was thinking about the Astros and Chiefs as a bit of a parallel.

      • The Chiefs just missed the playoffs after 10 straight postseason appearances – 5 SB appearances and 3 wins
      • The Astros just missed the playoffs after 8 straight postseason appearances – 4 WS appearances and 2 wins
      • The Chiefs 2025 featured a bunch of injuries in the offensive line and now the Mahomes injury that helped doom them
      • The Astros 2025 featured a bunch of injuries all over the place including pitching and especially Yordan Alvarez that in the end doomed them too.
      • Both teams have lost a number of very good players in free agency

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      • One big difference that is personal to me is that I don’t care for the Chiefs but I love my Astros. Mahomes is another reason that I am not insured with State Farm anymore besides the fact that their rates increase every year just enough where you hardly notice. But my agent gets a 9 out of 10. My current bill is about 20% less. Sorry, I got off topic.

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  6. Yes, LF is just another sign of the Astros minor league system not really giving you something that can work.

    Honestly, they play minor league games for a reason, not just to get here. Sure there are guys that have had success in the minors and it doesn’t translate, and there are guys that just piddle through the minors and get here and some button clicks, but usually the path tells you who they are. There isn’t a planet I am going to into my MLB season with Zach Cole and Jacob Melton as a part of my solution. You got team control, they have options, they are opening in my AAA as starters, but unless something has changed in ST and I see them spitting on marginal pitches and forcing the pitches they can hit hard, no way.

    The problem with Cam Smith is we have no minor league numbers to judge. In hindsight putting him in RF everyday smacked as a bit of desperation because he handled the spring really well. When I watch him bat it felt like though he

    My take on Zach Dezenzo is a little a different. I still wouldn’t make a 26 year old with less than 200 ABs in the bigs as my primary plan, but hopefully he can be a part of the mix and over the course of the season have a chance to earn more PT and maybe the job. My primary fear is the Astros do trade Meyers and go into ST expecting more from the Zachs and Melton and Smith than what they have shown us so far, especially because we already know what Sanchez is.

    As for Yordan and Altuve, I would support playing Yordan in LF almost full time if they asked me. But I get the fear. The thing is though he isn’t staying healthy already being a DH. Maybe you ask those hands to do less by not catching and throwing but the batting is the worst thing he does with them. The Astros could use some good luck on the Yordan front for once and get 145 games from him. Maybe it shouldn’t be in LF. Altuve should have been left alone to begin with. The metrics are bad anywhere, just leave him at 2B and move on.

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  7. I realize somehow a part of my paragraph got smashed –

    What I was saying about Cam is it seems he can lay off pitches at times. It’s a skill I don’t think Melton or Cole have so much but as the season progressed you could see the confidence fall off the cliff and he started pressing every single at bat. Hopefully its something the Astros can get fixed, he has a lot of talent.

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  8. I really don’t see the Astros getting much of anything for Jake. Maybe they use another guy or two and send all three of them to someone for something. But it’s not going to be much unless Paredes is a part of a deal.

    So I think chances are that once again, Jake Meyers will be our centerfielder by default. Our outfield might well stink offensively. Again. I guess that’s why I’d like to see Zach get a real shot in left. We’ve tried everyone else. And who else might the Astros pluck off some wire waiver? Not much. Zach has hit both righties and lefties in the minors. And I’d rather see him in left before Altuve and Yordan, for two different obvious reasons.

    We’ll find out on Opening Day. Joe says Yordan is our DH. But Yordan might be out in left on Opening Day.

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    • I think it depends on which teams are trying to tighten their belts. The landscape in CF was not great last year. Buxton, Grisham, Julio Rodriguez, Jo Adell, Andy Pages, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jackson Merrill, and Jackson Chourio all clearly outhit Jake. After that it was a lot of unimpressiveness. We might not have a lot of incentive other than shaving a few million dollars off the payroll to move him, though. You absolutely have to get more than you got from the Dubon trade.

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