To say the starting pitching for the Astros to begin the 2026 season will be changed from the 2025 season, especially the start of 2025 is an understatement of the highest order.
Let’s look at how that looked during the 2025 season and how it looks at this point in the off-season headed towards 2026.
| 2025 Starters | Comment |
| Hunter Brown | Top 3 in the AL Cy Young in 2025 |
| Framber Valdez | Enigma – Very good first half – Second half meltdown |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Made two starts – then missed 4 months with broken finger – pitched one month – missed September with elbow inflammation |
| Ronel Blanco | Made 9 starts before TJ surgery knocked him out for the rest of 2025 |
| Hayden Wesneski | Made 6 starts before TJ surgery knocked him out for the rest of 2025 |
| Lance McCullers Jr./td> | Came off the IL in May – was awful and/or injured the rest of the season |
| Luis Garcia | Was expected back early in the season – came back in September and was injured in his second start back |
| Ryan Gusto | Pitched in 24 games (14 starts) but was sent to Miami in the Jesus Sanchez trade (ouch) |
| Brandon Walter | Started 9 games before TJ surgery knocked him out |
| Jason Alexander | Picked up off waivers from the A’s and started 13 games for the Astros |
| Colton Gordon | Called up in mid-May – pitched in 20 games / 14 starts the rest of the way |
| Cristian Javier | Came off the IL in August – started 8 games the rest of the way |
| AJ Blubaugh | After one failed start early in the season – he was re-called in August and pitched in 10 games / 2 starts the rest of the season |
Pitchers in bold italics are not going to be with the team to start the season or ever depending on the pitcher.
So, what does that leave the team prior to making any more moves in this off-season?
| 2026 Potential Starters | Comments |
| Hunter Brown | Returning Ace – needs to repeat 2025 – no pressure |
| Cristian Javier | Another 6 months away from his surgery after pitching below average in 2025 (2-4, 4.62 ERA) |
| Spencer Arrighetti | If …. he really is recovered from his elbow inflammation, does he have a spot? When he did pitch in 2025 he was bad – 1-5, 5.35 ERA. |
| Jason Alexander | Pitched solidly for the Astros in 2025 (4-2, 3.66 ERA), but with more exposure will he be figured out? |
| Ryan Weiss | Pitched very well in Korea the last two seasons. But again, it was Korea and when he pitched in the U.S. minors before that – it was not very impressive. 6-4, 6.72 ERA at AAA – better at lower levels. |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | They owe him $17.7 million for one more season. Does he have anything left? 2025 did not look like it (2-5, 6.61 ERA) |
| AJ Blubaugh | In a small sample in 2025 (11 gms, 3-1, 1.69 ERA) he was very good. |
| Colton Gordon | He sucked up some innings in 2025, but was pretty meh (6-4, 5.34 ERA) |
| J.P. France | France came back very late in the season and threw 4 good innings for whatever it is worth. |
| Walter, Blanco and Wesneski | Walter had his TJ surgery in September; we will not see him in 2026. Wesneski had his surgery in late May, Blanco in early June. If they come back, it would be very late in the season. |
With all of these question marks, it is no wonder that the Astros seem to be connected to a number of potential trades or lower FA signings for pitching help. (Signing a high priced free agent does not seem to be in the cards).
Rumors include:
- LHP Ranger Suarez (former Philly) – this would be a free agent signing – not as pricy as Framber, but not quite as dependable – tops out at 157 innings in a season.
- RHP Shane Baz (Rays) – cheap – has had injury problems and put up just ok numbers in 2025.
- RHP Justin Verlander – would they bring JV back for a third stint? He will be 43. He pitched better than his record last season with SF (4-11, 3.85 ERA, 152 IP). They certainly would not be giving him anything close to the $15 million he made in 2025.
- This popped up today…. Red Sox Interested In Isaac Paredes; Astros Showing Interest In Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Mike Burrows – MLB Trade Rumors. It seems that this is only a possibility if the Astros are not sure how ready Paredes would be for the 2026 season after his serious hamstring injury in 2025.
And of course, the Astros also reportedly have interest in dealing Jake Meyers and Jesus Sanchez, but how much they would have to bundle with one of those folks to get back reasonably priced, MLB ready pitching help is the big question. Dana Brown has a big job this off season to thread the needle on budget and keeping the team competitive. Perhaps starting pitching is the biggest area of need.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
22 responses to “Astros’ 2026: Starting pitching discussion”
I would be open to bringing back JV on a team friendly contract.
Looking at how hamstrung the team is regarding its self imposed payroll levels, I cannot see them bringing in a top notch starter. Suarez has that QA attached to him and I don’t want to see the Astros lose another draft choice no matter where it may be.
Now, there are rumors that the Astros may look to trade Parades???? That should be a no go deal!!
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Ditto, Sarge. If JV comes back it has to be on a cheaper deal – but he may just retire then.
And I’m not loving the thought of losing Paredes.
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Hello, to all. First time commentor here.
To say Lance was awful is probably fair. At best, to say he was inconsistent would be a compliment.
At the end of July, I looked back and thought about it. That 12 game stretch with the Phillies, Cubs, Rockies (was in Denver for game1) and Dodgers. What I thought: It was the most amazing 12 games the Astros played, at least to that point, considering some of the guys they were running out there at the time. It turned out, that was their best stretch of the year, I believe, against mostly contending teams.
Lance started the one game of the Cubs series that we lost. Did not perform well at all. ( I started to type “did not look good at all” but I listen to all games on the radio)
But his next start was July 4th in L.A. Even with all the runs the Astros put up, that win was all Lance. What a performance, even on the radio! I thought he was back for sure. But we know the rest.
Anyhow, the feeling of gratification/joy after that win, along with the sweep, is one that I still think about occasionally during these hot stove days.
Thanks, Lance. I still hope the best for you
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Welcome stro-mule! I love it whenever we get a new voice on the blog.
Lance was always one of my favorites- I was hoping after all the time he missed he would make it back at least average.
Maybe he will be better in 2026 but we can’t carry a 6+ ERA starter.
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The draft lottery results are in and we now know the Astros will pick 17th. The rules were fairly confusing, but I believe that’s right about where we were expected to land. Since the owners still have not opened the books and Manfred and his buddies have leaked it that teams lost a combined $3B last year I’m not sure what to think. I don’t really care if Crane loses money, though. My main concern is the state of the farm system. If you’re going to sign guys that put us over the threshold they need to perform and make us contenders. We can’t do more Abreu/Walker signings. The Baz rumor is interesting and makes sense. There is no pitching available on the market for cheap. You can really roll the dice with a few guys…but I’m fearful it could backfire in the long run.
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Yes, Devin the lottery rules were a bit odd – but we probably fell where you would expect us to fall.
Hmmmm – Manfred says baseball lost $3 billion – huh? Gee whiz – you know what happens a little less than a year from now on Dec. 1 2026? The Collective Bargaining Agreement expires and those poor owners will be moaning and groaning about their losses (while ignoring the value of their franchises). e.g. Jim Crane and partners bought the Astros for $680 million in 2011 and are worth (according to Forbes) – $2.8 billion today.
I’m not saying the Astros or any other team is not losing money in any given season and I am certainly worried about what happens when the medias does not want to hand out big checks for baseball. But if they don’t open their books (and they won’t) I don’t believe a thing.
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Good morning!
Well Dan, the way you just layed it out, we’re looking at the 90 loss version of the Astros in 2026. But I don’t want to think the club will hang Hunter out to dry without providing him with a strong number 2 starter or at least two solid number 3 guys to help him shoulder the load. I don’t know how it gets done, but I’m leaving that to the experts.
When I see the following:
Javier
Arrighetti
Weiss
Alexander
McCullers
I just don’t see a path to respectability in 2026, regardless of how much the hitters hit.
Again though, Jim Crane seems to surprise us when we least expect it. So we might see some fun stuff happen in the coming weeks. And if given the opportunity, Dana might well be swinging for the fences. What has he got to lose?
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When I saw who was actually available for 2026, I started sweating daveb. We wanted Framber out of here, but that leaves a big hole in an already teetering on the brink rotation.
Maybe Javier will pick up the pace as he moves farther from his surgery. (or not)
Maybe Weiss will come in here and be a solid #3 pitcher (or not)
Maybe Alexander will continue the fine pitching he showed for most of 2025 (or not)
Maybe Arrighetti will turn back into the beast he was the last half of 2024 (3.08 ERA in his last 14 starts) – or not
Maybe Blubaugh is what he showed in a small sample in 2025 (or not)
etc.
But they have to go get somebody to eat some innings.
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If the Astros broke camp right now you have to think Weiss and Alexander are in the rotation behind Brown-Javier-Arrighetti. I’m not going to doubt LMJ’s heart, I know he will be all on, but some guys just have the unfortunate fate of having their bodies decide their career arc for them. But maybe he shows up to camp throwing 93 and finds 94-95 by June.
Luckily they are not breaking camp right now. Probably only some accountant in some back room somewhere knows the exact figure but most of the sites show them with roughly 25M to play with. I don’t think you have to play with all of it right now, but you got some space.
It doesn’t seem likely we are going to hear some major announcement regarding Suarez. That seems like a contract Crane would not be comfortable with, 5 or 6 years. I expect 1 outside of the bargain bin signing (I would again fall back on Bassitt, probably 2/30 signs him right now), and one more dip into the bargain bin. But who knows, we may also just get 3 dips into the bargain bin and hope something sticks.
Do you think another year where Brandon Walter and Jason Alexander show up and combine for 23 starts and 3.56 ERA in 124 innings is possible? That arguably carried the day in keeping them contention. We went 10-3 in Alexander’s 13 starts, so even when he didn’t last long enough to see the offense stand up, he kept them close enough to win. It’s hard to ask for more from your number 5 starter. I don’t know how much that change up will keep fooling people. You could already see down the stretch when the book was out on it. Seattle treated that change up like batting practice. Hopefully he has spent the offseason figuring out a new wrinkle to his mediocre fastball that get guys off sitting on the change up.
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Yeah, when I see Alexander, I think of Chris Devenski, whose big out pitch was his changeup. The more they saw him the worse the results – his ERA went up every season for 4 years – then he just had dribs and drabs of bad after that.
You are exactly right when you point out what Walter and Alexander gave them – on a smaller scale you could throw Blubaugh in there too. Can you expect that kind of surprise again?
On the plus side, you have to think that if Hunter Brown repeats 2025, that he will roll up 5 more wins at least, if the fates are fair. He had 25 starts where he gave up 2 earned runs or less and only was awarded 12 wins. He only had 2 of 31 starts where he gave up more than 4 earned runs.
The Astros need some injury luck with their pitchers but frankly need pure luck with their starting pitching also.
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Dan, the Astros can go a few different ways. They can…
1. …hope that some of the injured guys come back healthy and fill the gap.
2. …depend on finding another diamond in the rough in the system as they have done in years past.
3. …go out and get a solid player to back up Hunter in the rotation and ensure they get the job done and use options 1 and 2 to fill in the back of the rotation.
As we know, hope is not a strategy, but I fear they will rely on options 1 and 2 and continue to bring in sub-par, low-risk options and hope against hope that one of them pans out.
The money in baseball — and all sports — is ridiculous now and I wonder if Crane has become weary of the high-dollar options.
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Chip – unfortunately I think you are right about Options 1 and 2. I just don’t think Crane is going over the luxury tax before the season. He might do it at the trade deadline if they are contending, but I think he wants Dana to make some budget room before the season.
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Seattle Mariners position player ages: 28, 28, 21, 30, 24, 30, 24, 27, 31
Seattle Mariners starting rotation ages: 25, 32, 28, 27, 26, 26
Houston Astros position player ages: 26, 34, 35, 27, 26, 30, 29, 22, 28
Houston Astros starting rotation ages: 26, 26, 32, 25, 24
Those are the ages assuming we keep Paredes and put Spencer and AJ into the rotation. Obviously Weiss is getting paid so he may have an inside track. I list those ages because the variables we don’t know are 1) is Crane looking to sustain or go all-in 2) is Brown thinking long term or short term because no guarantee he will be here 3) how will $$$ commitments now impact the team following the next CBA.
I remain skeptical they can move Walker which makes me think they will not add an 8 figure player to the rotation unless it’s in July.
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Option 1 seems a bit down the road. Blanco and Wesneski won’t be seen until August, if at all in 2026. Walter won’t be seen this year so I’m not sure why the Astros are even keeping him on the 40 man. No one will sign him for 2026, so DFA him and get him on AAAs roster. Certainly we could use some bounce back (and many more innings) from Javier and Arrighetti.
The word on the street is that when we went after JV the Mets first ask was Melton not Gilbert. I say, it doesn’t really matter. I’m not sure this farm system has any more diamonds left to give. Gordon can get guys out, but mediocre stuff on the edge of the zone only plays so long in the big leagues and he eventually gets got. Ullola hasn’t thrown a strike since 1985. I like Jose Fleury a lot, but his stuff hasn’t played as well higher in system as his K/9 continues to drop as he elevates, not to mention he has yet to get 100 innings in a year and he will be 24.
So my suggestion, if I got to sit in the room, would be to damn the torpedoes, understand your minor league system is going to give you no help for the 2-3 year window you got with this current roster, and go get help. Otherwise, all that money you spent trading for Correa, signing Altuve, paying Yordan, Walker, its all a waste because you wouldn’t invest a little more to help this rotation. I think Weiss may be more help than people think he will be, he struck out 29% of batters he faced in the KBO, which is a league that generally sits 3% below the major league average of 22%. But he isn’t the answer to the slot between Hunter and Cristian that needs to be occupied by a true number 2.
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Ullola, a 40 year old rookie that does not throw strikes? Steven, I would not put that past Dana at this point. I got a laugh.
I’m glad I no longer wring my hands over missed opportunities. But this organization did have a chance to regroup over the past two, three years and remain relevant. The decision makers just were not on the same page. And we failed to profit from our most valuable assets, instead we wrote them off ultimately.
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On a different subject, I find it odd that Jim Crane has sold the Space Cowboys, Hooks, and Woodpeckers to another organization. Diamond Baseball Holdings. They are keeping the Tourists though.
https://www.khou.com/article/money/business/houston-business-journal/houston-astros-sell-sugar-land-space-cowboys/285-a851173a-906c-4fce-ac17-872a4d12a369
Is he trying to recoup some financial losses??
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Maybe they didn’t want the Tourists. Is the Crane Group simplifying the operation preparing to sell?
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He kept the Tourists because there is some rule in the CBA that only allows private equity companies to own 50 organizations and Diamond Baseball Holdings has 48 with another two AAA and AA teams on the docket pretty soon. I’m pretty sure this is going to change with the next CBA because DBH has promised to invest some in these parks and facilities to try and attract more fans, but thats probably going to mean higher prices.
Montgomery is pretty close to me, yet I still don’t go. I’ve checked a few times, they actually have a pretty interesting setup and a beautiful park, I just haven’t made the 90 minute drive to see it yet. Last I checked good seats were in the mid 20s, not terrible considering I spent well over 300 just for tickets for me, the wife and the kid last time we went to the box.
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Tickets prices for MiLB games are jacked through the roof already. We still go to a few games every year trying to hit different teams/ballparks within a few hours drive. If we were smart we’d eat before the game or afterwards. Without going overboard at the concessions stand we don’t tend to get out of the stadium without spending $120 or more there. My kids have all decided I’m obligated to buy them hats as well…which start at $36 in the team shops.
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I was not very impressed with the product in Sugar Land last summer. But only one thing bothered me on a typical warm July night. How come they couldn’t keep the beer cold?
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A little more info here – feels like it is more about the aims of Diamond Baseball Holdings than the Astros.
Why did Astros sell minor league clubs? Private equity eyes real estate play
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The Rule 5 draft quietly came and went.
2025 Rule 5 Draft Results – MLB Trade Rumors
The Astros lost no one but picked up Roddy Munoz from the Reds (a team he never played for – was picked up by them on Dec. 2).
He had significant time in the majors in 2024 starting 17 games for the Marlins and was bad – 2-7, 6.53 ERA. He pitched fairly well out of the bullpen at AAA last season but pitched poorly in a short call up with the Cards in 2025.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before….he walks too many people.
This seems like an interesting pickup – he will be 26 in April. Perhaps they see something in him that they think they can fix. He has to be on the major league roster all year or offered back to the Reds for peanuts
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