A couple posts ago, I requested some help in topics for this long off-season for this Astros-centric blog. Today we pull from a suggestion that friend of the blog Daveb put forth.
“How much rope do Dana and Joe get this year? Could they both be moved during the season if things start in a grim way?”
Part of the answer to this topic is tied to how hot the seats are.
Signs of a hot seat….
- They did not make the playoffs. For most teams, missing the playoffs by a tiebreaker would not be a clarion call for change. But the Astros made the playoffs 8 straight times and 9 of the last 10 seasons. It is expected and once there, it is expected the team goes deep, like the seven straight ALCS appearances, the four World Series appearances and the two Championships.
Joe Espada has been the manager for two seasons and in those two seasons the team made the playoffs and were immediately ousted after two games and then failed to make the playoffs.
Dana Brown has one more season as GM than Espada does as a manager and the team did make the ALCS in the 2023 season and were one win away from a World Series that they had an extremely high chance of winning. But it could be argued that Brown had little to do with that run as the 2023 team was basically set (for better and in places for a lot worse) when he took over.
- When people are let go around you. The team parted ways with hitting coaches Alex Cintrón and Troy Snitker, catching coach Michael Collins, head athletic trainer Jeremiah Randall, and assistant GM Andrew Ball (who had the medical staff in his purview). Pitching coach Bill Murphy also jumped ship, so there will be quite a different staff around the players in 2026.
Normally these changes come from someone (Jim Crane) asking what do you need to do to improve the hitting, the fielding of the catchers, the handling of injuries, etc. The folks sticking around then start throwing others under the bus to save their own skins.
But….this means that things better change for the better in the next season or the hot seat will turn into no seat and the manager and/or general manager will be gone with the wind.
Now whether the next step of sending Espada or Brown out the door occurs during the season or after the season… well, that may be tied to the next section.
And note, I am not saying it is even fair for Espada and Brown to be judged harshly after two seasons of unbelievable bad medical luck, especially on the pitching side. But baseball is rarely fair.
The other part of the answer has to do with the previous tendencies of owner Jim Crane.
- Crane has never fired a GM during the season and in general rarely are GMs replaced during the season by any team. His firing of Jeff Luhnow had to do with the cheating scandal, not the team performance and was during the off-season.
On the other hand, this is an owner who basically let James Click walk days after winning the 2022 Championship by offering him an insulting one-year contract. So, you can never say never. (See what I did there).
- As far as managers go, we have seen both sides of the coin with Crane. A.J. Hinch, like Luhnow was fired in the off-season due to the cheating scandal. Dusty Baker left in the off-season by some kind of mutual agreement. (Both, the only manager’s in team history to win a World Series).
But early on the first two managers during Crane’s ownership were let go during the season. Crane inherited Brad Mills from the Drayton McLane era and he was fired in August of the first season of Crane’s ownership. Bo Porter was the choice of Crane and Luhnow, but apparently butted heads with Luhnow and was released at the beginning of September of his second season.
Dan P believes that Espada and Brown are both in danger of working elsewhere soon. If the team continues to flounder on the offensive side that could easily be the tipping point for that decision. A disastrous 2026 could spell doom for both of them, though the guess here is that they would more likely fire Espada during the season and Brown after the season if that happened.
If they keep one of them the feeling here is that it would be Brown….on a very short leash.
Or maybe the Astros have a season with normal injury luck and suddenly are a solid playoff team. That would be my preference.
What are your thoughts?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
12 responses to “Astros’ going forward: How hot are those seats”
It’s a bit ironic, hypothetically anyway, Joe would likely go first. Dana second. Joe gets handed the players he has to work with. Most of that part is on Dana. However, Joe seemingly could not convince his coaches how to get through to the hitters. Joe also had a hard time getting runs to score even as guys were getting on base at a pretty good clip. So yeah, I’d have to hold Joe accountable for that. But should Dana have been more hands on as it applied to the medical staff? I think very much so, going back to last year at least. And did he rely too much on pitchers that really did not have enough time to rehab and be thrust back into action? Certainly.
One thing interesting about Crane. You never know exactly what he’s going to do. He’s shocked the whole league before. At the same time, I could see him paying Verlander too much to come back. Again. Ho-hum.
Totally separate; Bregman walked away from 2 years and 80 million. Were the Sox relieved?
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I’m surprised that only Dave commented. Any body out there today?
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Yes
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Yes
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My thoughts, this upcoming season has to be a win the World Series or bust season. Anything less probably means both Brown and Espada are gone. For a future article, who would be a good person to replace Dana Brown? Then who would be a good person to replace Joe Espada?
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I still find it hard to believe the Brewers had the best record in the NL and the Blue Jays won the AL East. Obviously one path to the World Series is to have a team like the 2019 Astros or 2025 Dodgers, but there are enough of 2023 Diamondbacks or 2015 Royals/Mets to make me think if we find one more TOR pitcher, the bullpen is healthy, Yordan stays healthy, and Altuve has his hot streak in September – November we could be right there in it. Someone is going to have to force this team to get younger at some point, though. Trading Tucker sure looks good in hindsight.
So to your point, if this team isn’t looking like a lock for the playoffs the first week of July I think it’s bust and they blow it up as best they can. Would Crane trust Brown to make those moves knowing he was not bringing him back in 2026?
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Man, WordPress can be so unfriendly. Several times I’ve typed up a long (for me) and carefully thought out (for me) response and then it just goes ‘poooof’ into the ether
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Simon, used to happen to me on a regular basis. I wish I could tell you what changed. It sure would be helpful.
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My thoughts are if we are doing well next year around mid-season I would both are safe for another year. However if the team is not cutting the mustard I would think Joe is target #1 and Dana #2. Regardless of who is running the team as it has been mentioned, we HAVE TO GET YOUNGER. Can’t have a roster of 30 plus guys making big bucks hoping for that proverbial WS title. It’s a lot to ask but I think the right combination of drafting, free agent signings, the right coaches can get the job done. Wishful thinking I believe.
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Z, I think if they are doing well around mid season and then tank again, they’ll both be fired the day after the season ends.
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Nick Kurtz was unanimous ROY and well deserved. I still can’t believe CLE and COL passed on him in the 2024 draft. Cinci picked his teammate, Chase Burns, and I think it was a mistake but at least understandable. Anyhow, someone pointed out that Kurtz probably gave the Astros 3 losses on his own and put up a 1.829 OPS against us in 10 games. That made me look it up and amazingly the Astros didn’t give him a single intentional walk. I’m going to go ahead and say if Espada wasn’t on the hottest seat in the organization after missing the playoffs this year there are a lot of in game feats like that which justify him earning that placement.
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Sorry I am not able to contribute much. I am farm-sitting for 12 days. No decent internet access. Many dogs, cats, goats chickens, guineas, deer, turkey and predators. House, barn, shop, vehicles, pastures, and many, many gates. Back at my house to resupply. Miss you!
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