It’s time to start looking at what was and what will be for the Astros. Today, let’s start with the pitching.
Before the Astros 2025 season began, the starting rotation depth looked something like this:
| Framber Valdez | Co-ace |
| Hunter Brown | Co-ace |
| Ronel Blanco | #3 based on 2024 |
| Spencer Arrighetti | #4 |
| Hayden Wesneski | #5 |
| Ryan Gusto | Starts season in the bullpen |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | Expected to return from the IL early in the season |
| Luis Garcia | Expected to return from the IL early in the season |
| Cristian Javier | Expected to return from the IL later in the season |
| J.P. France | Might return late in the season from IL |
| Colton Gordon | On speed dial at AAA |
| AJ Blubaugh | On not so speedy dial at AAA |
| Brandon Walter | Not really mentioned but eventually makes 9 starts |
| Jason Alexander | Starts the season with the A’s but makes 13 starts here |
So, what do we know for sure about those pitchers above?
- There is more chance that Jimmy Hoffa returns to lead the Teamsters than Framber Valdez returning to the Astros after the crap he pulled down the stretch.
- Hunter Brown will return as a strong #1 for the Astros
- Jason Alexander will return, but is he real or a pumpkin?
- Blubaugh and Gordon end the season healthy.
- Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter are where McCullers, Garcia, Javier and France were in 2025 – possibly returning in 2026 (or not)
- Arrighetti is an unknown at this point – is that elbow discomfort going to heal or is he headed to surgery.
- Garcia is gone for 2026 and perhaps forever.
- Javier, McCullers and France will return after basically scoring an incomplete in 2025. France barely pitched but looked good. Javier was below average. McCullers was bad.
This is not great boys and girls. As much as we hated what Framber did the second half of the season, they still need to replace those 192 innings and 3.66 ERA.
If you were going to piece together their rotation to start the 2026 season from these parts at this point, it would likely look like:
- Hunter Brown
- Cristian Javier
- Jason Alexander
- A.J. Blubaugh
- J.P. France or Lance McCullers with Colton Gordon in reserve
If they are lucky, Arrighetti is OK and returns for the beginning of the season and slides into the third spot.
But the bottom line here is that they need to get starting pitching help this off-season. Trade. Free Agent. Both. They can’t rely on any help from Wesneski, Blanco or Walter. They just can’t.
Maybe there is more help from the minors, such as Michael Ullola or Ethan Pecko, but again that cannot be plan A.
And the only reason that they might even think about getting in on the Framber Valdez sweepstakes is that he might be a better option than other arms on the market. Maybe they can sign him and also sign therapist Sigmund Freud III for the 2026 season and beyond.
As we get farther into the off-season, we will look at the free agents out there on the market. But for now, the team (and the fans) need to get into the mindset that change is needed. Or they can go for a nuclear blow-up.
A post for another time.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
11 responses to “Astros’ off-season: Starting pitching review”
Our Astros used 15 starting pitchers in 2025 if we count the Okert opener. With that in mind, we need to have quite a few other guys accessible. I also think a six man rotation will become pretty much the norm during most of the regular season. I’m not counting on Arrighetti at any point in 2026.
I think we have four locks (assuming good health) to start the 2026 season in the rotation.
Brown
Blubaugh
Javier
McCullers
Of those four, we really don’t know what Blubaugh or Javier will give us. And it would be a surprise to see McCullers settle in and become a contributor. I’d sure like to see him re-invent himself over the winter, and find the strike zone too. But I do think he’ll be on a short leash.
Then we have guys that might be in the rotation, depending on what other acquisitions the club makes. These guys would also be first to get the call when injuries inevitably occur.
Alexander
France
Gorden
I’m not sure if any of the three can give us good results on a regular basis.
At some point, we’ll also see Ullola and Pecko, even as they have and will still give up too many walks.
I think Justin Verlander will be back once again. He did give the Giants 150 plus innings in 2025 and he did go six or seven innings 12 times on the season.
Our GM will also pick up a high risk, high reward starter to open the season. There must be another Seth Lugo out there somewhere, ideally a lefty. Speaking of lefties, Colton Gordon might have an advantage. But I’m still not convinced Framber is gone. Though I might throw up if he ends up back on the roster.
I’m looking at these options and wondering how we’ll get through the 2026 season. Certainly we need fewer injuries. We need a guy to force his way on to the staff this winter. We need a good acquisition or two.
When I see 7th round pick Cal Schlittler pitch like a 1st rounder last night in his first post season appearance, I know there is hope.
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The Yankees drafted last night’s starter in the 7th round out of Northeastern in 2022. We lament our team’s lack of prospects and blame success forcing us to draft at the bottom of the first round…but the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox don’t seem to have that same problem. I thought Brown was brought in to be a player development focused GM, but it seems he was more forced into simply trying to patch holes on the big league club. If he doesn’t come back it will be interesting to learn whose decision that was. Also, I heard a comment on radio yesterday talking about pending free agent hitters like Luis Arraez. The summary is they don’t think his market will be strong because he hits singles and plays poor defense. This spawned off the topic of Trea Turner winning the batting title with a .304 average. The aside was that most teams might be overpaying for defense, focusing on the power numbers, and don’t care about average. They’re right and it made me think of Christian Walker. It also made me think about how bad the Red Sox looked on defense last night and the fact their pitcher gave a good effort but the gloves and bats sent them home. I think the same thing happened to us in the WC round last year.
I’m really confused by something. Why do we think Arrighetti is a #3 in any rotation? He had a few games in 2024 where he looked like a capable MLB starter, but the majority left me shaking my head and telling myself he was just a fill-in. If he’s your #5 you probably feel pretty good though. I like what was we saw from Blubaugh, Alexander, Gordon (4 mediocre to bad starts), and Walter (2 bad starts). I don’t think any are long term fixtures in anyone’s rotation, but given the rate of injuries it seems like volume pitching is more important right now. Also, I don’t care what y’all think…I still like Javier a lot. I hope he gets stronger this winter and finds consistency next spring.
My opinion on Verlander is that as long as he doesn’t break the budget I’m happy to send him to the mound every 5th or 6th game and try to help him get those wins he desperately wants.
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Sad… it would appear that his Astros career is over. Time to look at the team surgeons as well now.
https://www.mlb.com/news/luis-garcia-undergoes-tommy-john-surgery
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Looking at the latest Top 100 prospect list – only Brice Matthews (#93) represents the Astros on the list.
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I’m unable to provide a link using my phone – but if you want a good giggle – go to chron.com (spit!) – and read the article where the writer used AI ChatGT to rebuild the Astros. A few good ideas and a few what the heck moments.
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Unfortunately, if “leader” Framber became available for 4/90, he’d likely be back.
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Imagine the M’s going 0-32 at the plate in an 11 inning bullpen game, minus the six hits provided by Rodriguez and Raleigh. Even with our old friend Rafael Montero giving up a run to the three guys he faced before Hinch could come and get him, the Tigers outlasted the home team and have Skubal starting tonight.
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Baseball is great when a rookie by the name of Yesavage can show up with 14 innings of ML ball under his belt and throw 5.1 innings of no hit , 11 strikeout ball against the Bronx Bombers . Who knows what the 22 year old will do going forward, but his effort won’t be soon forgotten.
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If nothing else to cheer us up, a Springer Dinger is the icing on the cake as the (spit) Yankees get marmelised again … !
Judge saying ‘we’ve been here before’ and me thinking ‘you’ve been here before and then continued to lose and then get eliminated!’
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Just so y’all know – I am back from a mini-vacation and calf-scrambling catching up at work. Will put out a new post probably later this afternoon.
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Give Framber a QO.
Sign a starting free agent pitcher.
Non-tender Luis Garcia.
Hope LMJ, France, Javier and Arrighetti are healthy by April and ready to go.
Get with Hunter Brown’s agent and pay your ace his bucks.
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