We should have known something was up

We should have had a clue when…

Spencer Arrighetti went down on April 8. But we kept believing.

We should have known something was amiss when Yordan Alvarez had a hand problem in April. But we just ignored it.

We should have raised an eyebrow when Hayden Wesneski and Ronel Blanco couldn’t throw anymore. But we just said, “Next guy up!”

It was a coulda, shoulda, woulda year for the Astros, but more importantly, it was the same for Astros’ diehard fans.

Yes, we should have known. The question is: Did Dana Brown know?

And in the vein of the old Watergate question: What did Joe Espada know, and when did he know it?

This Astros season never really felt right. The bullpen could blow leads early on. The rotation shuffled names in and out like the proverbial revolving door. And the lineup, once among the most feared in baseball, suddenly went silent for weeks at a time. We’d get flashes of the old Astros, a sweep here, a clutch homer there, and we’d convince ourselves they were about to flip the switch. But the switch never flipped.

The Astros used 36 different pitchers this year, many of whom you may not even remember throwing an inning. Some won’t pitch again in Houston. Others have a medical sheet longer than Al Capone’s rap sheet.

In fact, the team had winning months in April (14–12), May (15–13), and June (19–7), but finished with a losing record the rest of the way (37–41).

By mid-summer, we should have faced the truth. But we kept drinking the Kool-Aid. This wasn’t a team built to make a deep run, especially as the injuries piled up. Still, we clung to the past (remember 2017, 2019, 2022) those years when no deficit seemed too big, no injury too costly, no October stage too bright. The dynasty mentality blinded us.

Instead of another October run, we got a slow unraveling. By September, the bloom was off the rose, and we couldn’t escape the reality that, for the first time since 2016, the Houston Astros are not going to the playoffs.

So here we are. Left with memories of what was, questions about what went wrong, and no clear answers about what comes next. Was this just a bad hand of injuries and misfortune? Or are we watching the dynasty fade into history? Will Crane make massive changes at the top or will he open his checkbook?

One thing’s for sure: You can’t ignore the warning signs anymore.

I just wanted to lament a little on a Monday morning, the first Monday morning in nearly a decade that the Astros will not be on the scoreboard watch in October. What’s going through your mind?

Dan will have a post-mortem later this week.

Questions to consider:

  1. Was this just one season of bad breaks, or is the dynasty really over?
  2. Did the front office underestimate the toll of injuries, or simply fail to prepare for them?
  3. Is Joe Espada the right manager to lead a reset, or does Houston need a different leader in the manager’s chair?
  4. How much longer can the Astros lean on the core stars before the window fully closes? Or, has it closed already?
  5. Most importantly, what’s the first move the organization must make this offseason?
←
→

16 responses to “We should have known something was up”

    1. Mostly bad breaks. The injuries to pitchers were inevitable, but the number is higher than we could have anticipated. Guys who didn’t throw for us in previous seasons went down. Hopefully exiting before the postseason this year gives us a better chance at making it through next year.
    2. The medical staff is either unable to do their job or the front office is releasing wild information that isn’t accurately telling us about the health of the team. Maybe it’s both. I think there is a reluctance to trade with Houston from some teams. Knowing how desperate we were for starting pitching probably priced us out of the market for some deals. I can’t fault the front office here, though, as the offense is what let us down in the end.
    3. Last year I couldn’t believe how Joe kept making moves I hated and they didn’t work. This year I couldn’t believe how Joe kept making moves I hated and they worked out…until they didn’t. I don’t know if anyone is holding the players accountable for stupid plays. We don’t need to be as boneheaded as the Yankees defensively. Our hitters don’t need to have 4 pitch innings. Our third base coaches seem to be watching different games than the rest of us.
    4. The core can’t win it on their own. The outfield has to get better. Diaz has to bounce back. Pena has to maintain his contributions. Alvarez has to stay on the field. Will Hader be able to pitch next year? I don’t think our starting pitching can win the WS.
    5. The first move is to figure out budget. They need to figure out the pitching and replace a few bats in the lineup. I don’t know how you achieve both of those without going over the cap.

    Like

    Reply

  2. I’ve never thought of the Astros as a dynasty. Had they won four big ones, I’d feel differently. The trips to the injured list were unprecedented in MLB history. But even with all those injuries, had Framber Valdez pitched to his expected norm in August and September, the Astros would likely be preparing to play baseball tomorrow, probably minus Yordan, Pena and Jake.

    Dana Brown certainly relied on the effective, healthy return of pitchers that ultimately could not pitch well or at all. But how can you underestimate the unknown? And hypothetically, how do you prepare for the loss of a Yordan or a Hader or three or four starters or your third baseman or an 0.2 WAR from your new first baseman?

    Perhaps Joe Espada is not the dynamic personality best at leading. He’s reserved. But given his cards, I can’t really think of anyone that would have or could have gotten 87 wins out of the Astros. I think we all wanted more from Joe down the stretch when the Astros played their worst baseball, but we don’t know many things about the team. Altuve had a bad foot. How long did Jake go with a bad calf, or Pena with a bad oblique? Losing Yordan had to mentally impact everyone on the team. How much did Framber knock the club off balance when he mailed it in?

    Core stars? I think we have two at this point, Pena and Brown. Both will likely leave when they become free agents. We got nothing for Framber and Bregman. I hope that was a lesson learned. But there is no reason why with better health and some smart personnel decisions the Astros can’t be relevant in 2026.

    First move? The Astros need to do several things. First or last, perhaps the most important one is to rebuild both the rotation and the bullpen.

    Like

    Reply

  3. 1 – Injuries suck. Even in the games we got from McCullers and Javier and Arrighetti it was obvious that they were not the same pitchers. We gave 605 PA’s to Taylor Trammell, Cooper Hummel, Zach Short, Brendan Rodgers, Jacob Melton and few others. We forced Cam Smith into duty and he clearly was not ready to handle a slump. We signed minor league free agents and waiver wire pick ups to make up for losing 3/5ths of a rotation. The thing is, we were already a roster full of players that other teams didn’t want anymore. Imagine the 2025 Colorado Rockies, one of the worst teams in baseball history, casting off their 2B and us thinking this was a good idea. Paying stars lots of money and trying to be limiting in your salary commitments creates no depth. Who really thought Yordan was going to have 6 healthy seasons when he was given that contract? Absolutely no one. This should have been baked into the cake.

    I don’t think this team should have been in on Walker, and they were not going to be in on Soto, Burnes, Alonso, Fried, etc. But if you aren’t making bad decisions you can be more in Jorge Polanco. Instead, we run to Brendan Rodgers because we couldn’t outbid Seattle.

    Answer – I don’t think it’s over because when push comes to shove, Crane gives the green light. But man, this team tried to trade for Nolan Arenado. Then it did trade for a 31 year old Carlos Correa that is signed for 3 more and will only get older. I seriously doubt their decision making process.

    Like

    Reply

  4. Thanks for jumping in here, Chip. Always enjoy your style and insight.

    I will hold off on going in depth on the team at this point as it may take away from what I am writing for this week and beyond. But….there are a few things I want to say.

    This was just a strange season from one end to the other. There was no reason for the Astros to have been 20 game over at one point. None. It was smoke and mirrors really with all the injuries and substitutions from who know where. And then the smoke dissipated and the mirrors broke and the team nose dived down the stretch. But still…..they ended up tied with the last Wild Card team – the Tigers and lost the tiebreaker.

    The Tigers. Just wow. On July 8th they were 25 games over .500 and 14!!! games up in their division. They were 3 games up on the Dodgers for the best record in the majors. They were 4 games up on THE ASTROS for the best record in the AL on that day.

    They went 28-41 the rest of the way, but they play Cleveland tomorrow and the Astros go home. Life is not always fair.

    Like

    Reply

  5. Steven, I still don’t regret the Cam Smith decision. I believe what happened is that, as the season progressed, his surroundings changed. When other players started going down, Joe plugged him in a different situation/position in lineup, etc. almost daily for awhile. THAT is what sent him into a tailspin in my estimation.

    That is the sad truth. They should have continued to hit in the lower third of the order and been ruthless about letting him mature gradually rather than see a “shiny thing” and take advantage of it. Hopefully, he’ll recover and continue to grow in the off season.

    But I don’t believe the early season to let him skip AAA was the bad decision. The bad decision was failing to let him grow at his own pace in the majors.

    Like

    Reply

    • Clearly all of us have the advantage now of hindsight. Whether it was a lineup change or how to handle the lows every player experiences over the course of the year, the performance was the same. I don’t think the Astros made the wrong choice though. I just wish they had the ability to adjust when he would have a hot 2 weeks than go into a coma for 2 months.

      My issue is this – you have a guy with a record low number of minor league games. 3rd fewest if I remember? I just remember how incredible that Pete Incavaglia debuted with the Rangers with zero minor league games. Crazy.

      Young guys should never be handed a job because you couldn’t find another answer. They should take the job through performance. Lance Berkman was not handed an OF job in Houston. He had to earn it. The Astros had brought in Matt Mieske, a 32 year old vet of multiple seasons and at least some marginal success as depth, but they had the intent of letting Ward get the first crack. Lance had to get through both of them, but he did. I don’t think Cam causing Ben Gamel to be released is what I mean. Maybe Sanchez, if he is still here when ST opens, can press him for playing time. I just hope Sanchez isn’t here.

      Like

      Reply

    • What’s remarkable about Cam Smith is an infielder who converted to RF and really excelled for them out there. Even when his bat was slumping his glove and arm came to play. He may have slumped but he wasn’t overmatched. Hopefully he has a strong offseason, cuts down on the K’s, and continues to improve next year.

      Like

      Reply

  6. 3 – I’m fine with Joe. I think he did wonders to give 605 PAs to castaways and minor league free agents and still win 87.

    My concern has always been Brown. Arenado. Correa. Walker. Trades/almost trades and free agents that are under performers. Correa isn’t bad in a vacuum, but he is being moved to the same position that is one of the few we had solved. And he will be a salary and tax threshold hit. Brown didn’t sign Montero. Or Abreu. He did sign a closer for a record contract when we had an in house option. He got lucky Tay Scott come from no where and covered him on his bullpen depth. Same with Okert and King this year. Will their balloon pop the same way Montero and Scotts did?

    He just isn’t doing it the way I think is salary efficient. I don’t want to sound to sound like I think I’m smarter than Brown, in no way, shape, form or fashion could I hold a candle to that guys baseball IQ, but Arenado hit .237 this year with 12 HR. He had an OBP of .289. And the once best defensive 3B of our generation just posted his second year in a row of league average range factor, total zone, and Defensive Runs Saved ratings. They offered Bregman 6 years! By year 3 we would hate that contract.

    I just don’t know. I wrote last year about recognizing the train coming down the track at you. How you turn a bad situation like the one the Rays had with David Price years ago into 4 years of players that gave them a combined 10 WAR. The Astros need some that creativity.

    Answer – I believe in Joe Hendry, er, Espada.

    Like

    Reply

  7. Just thinking out loud but maybe in the future we should maybe look at trading players in their final year and who look like our chances of signing them is slim or none. I know that is very difficult to do in a playoff run but what better way to reload the farm system. Think of all the top tier players we’ve lost over the past 5 years and got nothing for them. Well maybe a supplemental pick: Springer, Cole, Bregman, Valdez (probably) Verlander, Kikuchi, Correa.

    We are an aging team with over inflated salaries: McCullers – 17.7 MM, 2026; Correa – 32MM, 2026-2028 plus option; Altuve – 33M 2026, 2027, 13MM – 2028,2029; Hader – 19MM 2026 – 2028; Javier – 21.4M 2026, 2027; Walker – 20MM 2026,2027; Alvarez – 26.83 2026 – 2028. That’s 170MM for 2026, 152MM for 2027, 90MM for 2028, and 13MM for 2029. We are just hamstrung for at least the next two years.

    Maybe somebody can pull a rabbit out of their hat but I’m not overly optimistic. I’d keep Espada since he almost pulled it off with a band aid of a line up. He could only do so much with the cards that he was dealt. Brown, I’m not so sure about. I understand the Correa deal but I would not have obligated the team for what it’s going to cost us over the next 3 plus years. And the Walker signing was another disaster. Stop signing aging players for 3 year contracts. Example being if Altuve was a free agent would any team come close to signing him for 4 years at 92MM?

    Baseball has a habit of signing players to big contracts based on past performance, hoping that the next period will be like the past. It’s kind of like buying a stock. You always get that disclaimer that, “past performance is not an indicator of future results.” Especially for those players approaching their mid 30’s.

    Having said all of that I’m still a loyal Astro fan and will continue to be one. Here’s hoping for a great off season and a better 2026.

    Like

    Reply

  8. Good morning! Yeah, the Astros have gone home. But there sure are some great match ups to watch in this first round of post season play.

    Like

    Reply

  10. 4 – Windows should never close on 200M+ payrolls. But drafting 25th every year for almost a decade and having the rest of baseball rush to meet your advantage in Central/South America puts us behind. But the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, seem to do OK developing some internal help while not drafting high either. Zach Cole and Jacob Melton are not going to get it done.

    5 – Make a fast decision on Framber. Offer him the money, or let his agent know thanks but we are moving on. Don’t get drug into another Alex Bregman offseason saga. I say move on, but I’m used to the Astros not reading our advice and heeding it. Whatever they do, make it quick this time. Give yourself the offseason to deal with Cease or Kelly or Gallen.

    Like

    Reply

  12. Seeing how close the Astros were to getting into the playoffs, I look at the season and some will say that the early games, of the season, don’t matter as much as the ones in the late part of the season. I disagree with this thought process and it has been proven to be absolutely crucial to win games during the entire season. The early ones are just as important as the late ones. When we lost the series against Detroit, in late April, winning that series would have placed us in the playoffs.

    Like

    Reply

  13. Good morning. Now that it’s pretty clear Dana Brown is not under contract for 2026, it’s possible we could see some significant changes coming. Is Jim Crane quietly considering other options? I suppose he always is. A GM change now would not nearly be as big a surprise as the James Click departure was. And with a new GM, would we end up seeing other changes too? Likely.

    It has always impressed me that Brown has been able to find talent that gets us through very difficult times. Guys like Walter, Alexander, King, Okert, Souza, De Los Santos and others. At the same time, Brown has not had the same good fortune with hitters, whatever the reasons.

    And as for all those injuries, if anything gets pinned on Dana, like the lack of definitive information on Yordan’s hand before putting him back to work in the cage in late May, that could come back to haunt him.

    Like

    Reply

Leave a comment