Astros 2025: Dissecting the biggest series of the season

The Mariners – Astros series has been one that has been circled on the fans’ calendars for a while, especially since the Mariners cut a seven-game lead back into something more palatable around the first week of August. Now that it is here, there are certain things this series may or may not mean.

  • With the two teams tied for first heading into Friday’s night game, the only result of the series will be that one or the other of the two teams will have a one-game or three-game lead after Sunday’s finale.
  • A one game lead won’t mean that much as both teams still have two three game series left, the Astros on the road with the Athletics and Angels and the Mariners at home against the Rockies and Dodgers.
  • But with the Mariners heading home after this series, it feels like the Astros need to be the one that wins this series if they want to win the division. The Astros play two teams out of the race, but the Athletics have been 37-29 since the beginning of July.
  • Both teams still have good shots at a Wild Card spot, though a sweep might put the loser in danger from the hard charging Guardindians.

Let’s take a quick look at both teams and where they fall in the American League in offense, starting pitching and relief pitching.

Astros

  • 84-69 – Tied for first in the AL West.
  • Home – 46-32  
  • Road 38-37
  • Last 10 – 6-4 – 3 game winning streak
  • Vs. Seattle – 5-5

Note: All stats through games of 9/18/25

Hitting – .252 BA (T – 4th in AL) / .318 OBP (T – 6th) / .718 OPS (7th) / 4.26 runs/gm (11th) /        169 HRs ( 11th) / 77 SBs (T-12th) / 451 walks (12th) / 1120 Ks (3rd least)

Starting Pitching – 49 wins (7th in AL) / 49 losses (5th most) /  3.90 ERA (5th) / 1.21 WHIP (T-4th) / 822.1 IP (3rd) / 110 HRs (T-9th) / 266 walks (6th most)/ 814 Ks (1st)

Relief Pitching – 35 wins (3rd in AL) / 20 losses (Least) / 45 Saves (T-1st) / 3.74 ERA (7th) /     1.23 WHIP (3rd) / 541.2 IP (11th) / 75 HRs (3rd most) / 214 walks (10th most)/ 614 Ks (1st)

Seattle

  • 84-69 – Tied for first in the AL West
  • Road – 36-42   
  • Home 48-27
  • Last 10 – 9-1
  • Vs. Houston 5-5

Hitting – .245 BA (T – 8th in AL) / .321 OBP (T – 4th) / .741 OPS (5th) / 4.75 runs/gm (5th) /         223 HRs ( 2nd) / 150 SBs (2nd) / 515 walks (2nd) / 1341 Ks (5th most)

Starting Pitching – 50 wins (T-4th in AL) / 43 losses (11th most) / 4.09 ERA (9th) / 1.21 WHIP (T-4th) / 828.1 IP (1st) / 123 HRs (4th) / 237 walks (12th most)/ 809 Ks (2nd)

Relief Pitching – 33 wins (T-6th in AL) / 26 losses (9th) / 40 Saves (T-6th) / 3.98 ERA (8th) /       1.29 WHIP (8th) / 544.1 IP (9th) / 60 HRs (12th most) / 201 walks (11th most)/ 517 Ks (12th)

  • The Home/Away edge falls to the Astros as they are much better at home and the Mariners are below average on the road.
  • Though the Astros are on a 3-game winning streak, the Mariners are the much hotter team after just ending a 9-game winning streak.
  • The Astros are an underperforming offensive team. Their slash numbers (4th in BA/ 6th in OBP and 7th in OPS) have resulted in an 11th best runs/gm. Their power (HR) and speed (SB) numbers are bottom third in the league. They do a good job avoiding the strikeout.
  • The Mariners score a half run more per game than the Astros. They are an excellent power and speed team, coming in 2nd in the league in both HR and SB categories. They are bottom third with the 5th most Ks in the AL. I just stare at Cal Raleigh’s 56 HRs and 118 RBIs and shake my head.
  • Even with all their injuries, the Astros starting pitching has solid numbers when you look at ERA, WHIP and especially leading the league in K’s.
  • The Mariners starting pitching ERA is below average, but they still have one more win than the Astros and are a team that does not allow too many walks or home runs.
  • It is hard to judge the Astros relief numbers with Josh Hader out. But for the season that 35-20 record with 45 saves is impressive.
  • The Mariners bullpen is basically in the middle in most categories lying 8th in ERA and WHIP.

Matchups for this weekend’s games.

Game 1

Bryan Woo – 14-7 3.02 ERA vs. Hunter Brown 12-7 (2.27 ERA)

Woo

  • At Home – 10-2, 2.44 ERA             Away 4-5, 3.58 ERA
  • 2025 Versus Houston – 2 starts – 0-2 – 4.50 ERA
  • Last 5 starts – 4-0, 3.03 ERA

Brown

  • At Home 5-5, 2.25 ERA                  Away 7-2, 2.29 ERA
  • 2025 Versus Seattle – 2 starts – 2 No Decisions – 2.70 ERA – Did have his shortest start of the season, 4 innings at Seattle back in July
  • Last 5 starts – 2-2, 1.44 ERA

Game 2

George Kirby 9-7, 4.46 ERA vs. Framber Valdez 12-10, 3.59 ERA

Kirby

  • At Home 5-3, 3.36 ERA                  Away 4-4, 5.74 ERA
  • 2025 Versus Houston – 1 Start (his first coming off IL) 0-1, 12.30 ERA, 3.2 innings his second shortest start of the season
  • Last 5 starts – 1-1, 5.33 ERA – most of the bad ERA comes from a 2 inning, 7 earned run start at Tampa

Valdez

  • At Home 6-3, 2.21 ERA                  Away 6-7, 4.96 ERA
  • 2025 Versus Seattle – 2 Starts – 1-0, 0.75 ERA (two starts were in April and May)
  • Last 5 starts – 1-4, 6.75 ERA – His only win was 7 innings of shutout ball against the Rockies – his 4 losses were 21 innings of 9.00 ERA – 3 on the road and 1 at home.

Game 3

Logan Gilbert 5-6, 3.53 ERA vs. Jason Alexander 4-1. 4.04 ERA

Gilbert

  • At Home 3-2, 2.13 ERA                  Away 2-4, 5.08 ERA
  • 2025 Versus Houston – 1 Start – No Decision, 1.59 ERA at Seattle
  • Last 5 starts – 2-1, 2.54 ERA

Alexander

  • At Home 0-1, 4.93 ERA                   Away 4-0, 3.19 ERA
  • 2025 vs. Seattle – No appearances
  • Last 5 starts – 5-0, 2.93 ERA

The stats give a lot to chew on:

  • What is striking is the home/ away split numbers of the Mariner’s pitchers. All three are poor away from Safeco park.
  • Hunter Brown is steady Eddie between home and away – excellent (and unsupported) for both. Framber is much better at home, while in a small sample Alexander is worse at home.
  • The wild card here of course is Framber. He has been putrid lately except for the Rockies start.
  • The other wild card is the support for Hunter. This season he has 5 losses where he gave up 1 or 2 earned runs. He has 4 no decisions where he gave up 0 runs and 4 more where he gave up 1 or 2 runs. The man should be at 20 wins.

This should be an exciting series, and we can only hope that the Astros we saw in the Ranger series hang around for this one.

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25 responses to “Astros 2025: Dissecting the biggest series of the season”

  1. Hmm, Paredes will be activated in time for this weekend’s series.

    Who saw that one coming? And, who’ll get knocked to the bench? Assuming he serves as DH? Or will he just be PHing all weekend to get back in the swing?

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  5. With Paredes back tonight I thought of Alex Bregman. He’s hit 6 homers at Fenway on the season, just 17 overall, and really has not hit much at all since coming back from his June injury. I think the Sox are stuck with two more years at 40 million per.

    And Kyle Tucker was due back from the IL this week, but the calf is still not working. He’s left the club and is down in Florida getting treatment after a second opinion there. I used to think that he would be a very sturdy guy. He had such a good season going before his own problems started.

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  6. Good morning! Before the Rangers series started on Monday, I was convinced a Wild Card was our best bet. And I have to give Devin a mention here. The Astros do need a win today, as it appears the Guardindians have decided not to lose again. Winning makes things much, much easier.

    There are seven teams that are close to playing post season baseball in the American League, but only six of those clubs will get in on the festivities. I’d sure hate to be the guys left out. We do still control our own destiny though. I’ll say it again. A win today has become almost essential. That’s all our guys need to worry about.

    And for the first time, I’m willing to admit the Seattle club is better than ours at this point. They’ve got a tough line up. But their starting pitching continues to further erode. We need to take advantage of that.

    This is really shaping up to be a remarkable march into bonus baseball. One team in the mix will go home. I still like our odds. But it’s going to be a crushing defeat for that seventh team that does not win enough games to get in.

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  7. Thoughts

    There always seems to be one pitcher who consistently gets less support than his peers for the season. That is Hunter Brown. Yes, all the starting pitchers at one point or another have had less support, but no one has gotten abused more than Hunter.

    Like daveb and Devin say – look out for Cleveland and go win tonight. Framber, if you really do want a big contract – you need to earn your current perfectly sufficient contract tonight.

    That was such a big nothing burger of an offensive game last night. I’m sick of them laying eggs so often.

    I got nothing else to say – go out and play better. Period.

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  8. Agree with you wholeheartedly on your last statement Dan. While I’m not blaming the plate ump for the Stros hitting woes last night, I began to wonder what payroll he was on. He kept giving Woo an outside P 2” off the plate for strikes, but when Hunter threw in the same area, an inch closer for goodness sake, it was a ball. He rung Parades up on a P up outside the plate. If it’s not going both ways I have a complaint.

    With all that said, I knew the lineup was in trouble when they continued chasing fringe P for easy outs pretty much the whole game. In the 4th, Woo struggled with command out the stretch, Tuv forsook a walk with ducks on 1st and 2nd, one out, check swinging into a strikeout. Woo coaxing Walker into a SO with P up. Three hits for the tm off P in the box. Might want to live there using that approach if you want to win from here on out. Like you said Dan, do better. Period!

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  10. Good morning Astros fans. A few years ago I would have been banging my head against the wall after last nights Astro loss. In fact, last night, when the game went 6-0, I turned it off and read a book.

    I have to say though that I’m almost offended. Our guys did not show up. Again. Except for Pena’s slam, they did not make a play all night. That same Pena gave up on a pop up early and Jake misjudged a ball that barely reached the track in center. Runs resulted by stealing bases and using a sacrifice fly. Framber grooved a BP sinker that did not sink and gave Raleigh a free dinger. Jake oddly dived for a ball that that he had absolutely no chance for, allowing the 6th run to score.

    We had opportunity after opportunity to get a base hit and plate guys standing in scoring position. Same theme. Failure is almost an expectation at this point.

    But it actually came down to a terrible mental error by Jake, inexplicable really, one that should never happen with a professional baseball player on the field. It did though.

    Jeremey Pena came to Jakes defense and said it was a good read and he had the right mind set. Joe Espada said that Framber had a good night and that we’re going to keep working with him. After a while it’s hard to be a somewhat knowledgable baseball fan and read that kind of crap from the Astros. We are not stupid. Jake committed a cardinal sin. He ran on a ball that was caught, caught at least a foot off the ground. He should have been standing halfway between second and third waiting for that ball to drop or be caught. His run meant nothing.

    I’m not sure how much better Seattle really is than our Astros, but they’ve come into town with much more spring in the their step, much more enthusiasm, a confidence level that we’re not close to. Maybe the Astros will get some help from somewhere, but I’m dubious at this point.

    I know that anything can happen once in the post season, but I’m not convinced that applies to the Astros this year.

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    • I wish you were wrong. In that situation it would almost be better for Jake to decoy Rodriguez, who they thought would field it, into a throw home than to actually score. Getting the tying run to 2B with 1 out is more valuable than being down 1 run with a runner on 1st. This is the kind of baserunning we expect from our team though. They’re little excuse for Jake to make that mistake as he’s a college guy who would have had proper instruction prior to his professional career.

      Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Sometimes when you’re good you just also happen to get that luck. Cal Raleigh was late on that fastball and still managed to hit it out to right-center because it was elevated. Ugh. That sums up the whole Framber experience though.

      Maybe they’ll turn things around and finish the season strong. Mentally they must be drained, but quite frankly, I expect professionals to come out and not look like it.

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  11. Thoughts

    So will Jason Alexander once again quietly rescue this team. He has come through a number of times when the team badly needed a V since he joined the rotation.

    Along with Jake Meyers running like he forgot how many outs there were, what the heck was our third base coach doing waving him home. Granted it was too late by then, Meyers was a dead duck, but the judgment was very questionable.

    The weird thing is that Meyers run was not the important one – Pena was – that was the tying run.

    RISP – 1 for 9 – only Pena’s grand salami when we needed a hit.

    One of the things about our teams during this Golden Era – in the important games our team knew how to play and played like they knew they were going to win. Of course, not perfect, but rarely as sloppy as we have seen in the field lately. (OK Altuve was always a nut job on the bases, but he was not the problem this game)

    Gotta win or these players will be joining their fans on the couch come October.

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  13. Crikey. Tigers lost AGAIN. Guardindians finally lost. We’re back in the playoff spot. But it’s one game here or there that will decide it right until the end. We might be second seed, or not qualify, or anything in between. All we had to do was beat the Mariners at our home park. Sheesh.

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    • Nothing like getting your A#@ handed to you on National Television. I tuned in late and glad I did, so now I can go back to watering the yard.

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  15. Good morning. Constanza and Framber turned out to be pretty much a wash over the past couple of months. Unfortunately, the magic for George is over. Those good hitters decided to ignore the change and wait for the fastball. And unfortunately, Framber never did re-discover his own magic.

    Boston plays three in Toronto. The Jays would like to win the division before the weekend. Detroit would certainly like to get their own dookie back together in Cleveland. Maybe there is still a chance for these Astros. If they go 4-2 or 5-1 they might end up playing next Tuesday afternoon. It’s probably just as likely they go 2-4 or 1-5 and fly home on Sunday.

    If the M’s were not the dagger that put the Astros out of their own misery, Jeremy Pena certainly qualifies too. Dana said he might be out for maybe two days. Gallows humor for this club. Watching Paredes limping down the first base line is disconcerting. I wish he would have been standing at second on Saturday night in the 9th rather than Jake. He could not have gone too far. But is the risk of additional injury worth it? Weirdest Astro season ever. But who knows. Maybe this group will loosen up and play some good ball for a few days. I’ll be asleep though.

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