Astros’ 2025: Now what?

The Astros did what they threatened to do many times this season. After taking the AL West Division lead on June 3, they finally handed it back 90 games later on September 14.  Just 10 games ago they had a four-game lead, but their 4-6 stumble in that stretch combined with a 9-1 charge by the Mariners put them 1 game back with 12 games to go. They also allowed the third place Rangers to narrow their gap by 3 games and now the Astros hold a tenuous two game lead for the last Wild Card spot.

Now what? What are the Astros and their closest opponents facing down the last 12 games of the season?

Astros

81-69, second place in the AL West. 1 game back

In the Final AL Wild Card spot. 2 games up on the Rangers – 2.5 games up on the Guardindians

Last 12 games

Rangers

79-71 – 3rd place in the AL West, 2 games back of the last wild card

Last 12 games

  • 3 games starting tonight on the road – Astros
  • 3 games starting Friday at home – Marlins
  • 3 games starting Sept 23 at home – Twins
  • 3 games starting Sept 26 on the road – Guardindians

Mariners

82-68 – 1st place in the Al West – one game up on the Astros

One game up on the Final AL Wild Card spot

Last 12 games

  • 3 games starting tomorrow night on the road – Royals
  • 3 games starting Friday on the road – Astros
  • 3 games starting Sept 23 at home – Rockies
  • 3 games starting Sept 26 at home – Dodgers

This is about as balanced as you are going to see – all three teams have 6 games on the road and 6 games at home. Both the Mariners and the Rangers play the Astros at Daiken Park, but both seem to have a pitching matchup advantage over the Astros (if bad Framber appears again).

The Astros could:

  • Continue their recent slump and be in terrible shape after the next 6 games
  • Or they could find a second wind and slice and dice the two teams they need to beat to win the division
  • Or toddle along and hope the other two teams fall on their collective faces

The Rangers could:

  • Take advantage of playing an Astros team with pitching problems, and playing the lowly Marlins and Twins to crawl back into a playoff spot
  • Take a blow to the chin from the Astros and then have to try and pull something out at the end of the season against a Cleveland team that may be as desperate as the Rangers
  • Or toddle along and hope the other two teams fall on their collective faces

The Mariners could:

  • Take advantage of the struggling Astros and playing the awful Rockies in a row to build an insurmountable lead
  • Could take a blow to the chin from the Astros and then hope they can hold on against the Dodgers in the last series of the season
  • Or toddle along and hope the other two teams fall on their collective faces

This will be a fascinating 12 game finish to the season. Will the Astros have enough clutch hitting and pitching to hold on to a playoff spot? There is a good chance that whether they win the division or just grab a Wild Card spot that they will be playing either the Rangers or the Mariners in the first round.

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17 responses to “Astros’ 2025: Now what?”

  1. I heard a bit of Dana Brown on the radio before the game yesterday. The biggest news items that I heard were:

    • Lance is likely done for the season (surprise) with his hand soreness. (I can imagine they were harassing him after every game – how’s your foot, leg, knee, arm, shoulder, elbow, hand…..oh you have some soreness in the hand? Off to the IL).
    • Hader is all but done until next season. He isn’t throwing yet, but it sounds like they are afraid of trying to rush him back for the playoffs anyways. I think he is done.
    • Isaac Paredes is likely going to be back before the playoffs and will DH. He even said they are hoping for him maybe by the Seattle series (don’t count on that).

    He may have talked about others, but I missed part of it.

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  3. Time for a twelve game winning streak. In fact if we win two of three from the Rangers, repeat that with two of three from the Mariners, then win out the last six, we will still be comfortably the AL West champions.

    Whether they have that in them, though, I doubt. They have the look of the defeated.

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  4. “The games we play [earlier] during the season don’t matter now,” infielder Mauricio Dubón said. “We’ve got playoff baseball on this coming homestand, and it’s going to be fun.”

    Well Dubon, those games DID matter because if the team won, consistently back then, you and your teammates would not be in the situation that y’all are in now.

    “Walker said Houston’s “high-power” offense will be ready.”

    That quote, by Walker, is downright funny. High power… okay.

    Quotes via Brian McTaggart MLB article.

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    • You know Sarge, in fairness, McTaggart writes nothing but fluff on behalf of the Astros. You’d think the guy would want to provide a real scoop every now and then.

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  6. That was a one game emotional roller coaster. A playoff vibe but with half the crowd preferring to be out at NRG watching the Texans go 0-2.

    Yordan is likely done for at least the regular season, even if it’s a minor ankle sprain. I think anyone that has played the game on any level has slipped on the plate at some point. But what are the odds of that injury? I have to say this though. Coach P. at third was very late to put up the stop sign. With Yordan it’s like downshifting a semi. It takes awhile. Coach P. did not help the situation.

    Jason Alexander looked human last night. 4.2 innings. Jeremy Pena made just his 9th error on the season and Jose failed to finish a play that everyone else makes. We could have absorbed a solo homer in the 5th and likely gotten another inning out of Costanza, but we gave the Rangers five outs instead.

    And then our God fearing youngster came to our rescue with the game changing blow that gave the lead back. What a script!

    And we got 13 outs from our pen, although I think Jayden Murray is more a hope and a prayer kind of guy. And Bryan Abreu made it interesting. I really believe he pitches better when NOT fully rested.

    Gosh our potential future Hall of Famer really needs re-find some degree of success at the plate. Jose, you must hit for the next 11 games. Or take a walk, or absorb an HBP. And Jake, why can’t you hit at home? We sure need you too. And tonight we need Yainer and Christian to put the ball over the fence.

    And we need AJ to out duel Merrill Kelly too. The Rangers have a bigger bullpen issue than we have right now.

    I know, a lot of big asks from me today.

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  7. If the Astros go 5 and 6 the rest of the way, the Rangers have to go 8 and 3 for both clubs to end up with 87 wins. The Boot could play a role after 162 games are played, but for the now, the Astros just need take it one day at a time and win tonight to make it that much tougher on the Arlington guys.

    The Cleveland squad still has 13 games to play and they’re playing well. But they’ve got six against the Tigers. As long as the Tigers are playing for the number one seed, they’ll hopefully play Cleveland tough.

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  8. Thoughts

    • Jason Alexander pitched pretty well last night, but as you say daveb those 5 outs in the 5th inning tripped him up. They hit a homer off a ball that was low and inside and scooped it into the ever-looming Crawford Boxes – and one of those two runs was due to an error. Then he gives up a third run because Jose Altuve is like Michael Jackson was – wearing a glove on one hand for no reasons. (OK that was not fair).
    • Here is a great question – if Yordan does not leave the game with the injury – does he knock in 3 runs with a homer and a single as his replacement, Zach Cole did?
    • And Jesus Sanchez finally breaks his 0 for infinity streak to set off the rally in the 7th after throwing out a runner at home to protect the lead.
    • I wish we could have dipped deeper into the Rangers bullpen – those guys were heavily used the last 4 or 5 days and we need to get the starters out of the game.
    • Abreu drives me nuts, but he did get out of it without giving up a run.
    • Amazing the Astros won with the 4th thru 8th hitters going 0 for 17
    • Pulling for AJ Blubaugh today. He has been pitching very well lately. In his last 5 games / 9 innings – 0 runs/ 3 hits / 3 walks/ 10 Ks.
    • I was switching back and forth with the Texans’ game which was the ultimate gut punch.

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  10. Wow, that was a close one. De lo Santos melts down after getting two outs in the 8th and Bryan Abreu comes through but not after some tense moments. But we came away with a “W”. Thank goodness for some run production tonight. Except for the De Lo Santos faux pax our pitching was very good up to that point. I won’t say anything ab out tomorrow so as not to jinx the guys. Got to keep winning as the M’s have won 10 in a row.

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  11. Good morning! Who would have thought Blubaugh, Gordon, Murray and De La Santos would have given us 7.2 innings in a win during a pennant race with 11 games to go in September?

    We should’ve put those guys away early, but that’s the way we roll. And Merrill Kelly is no pushover.

    Our guys deserve some credit. I think Santa needs the rest home though. Abreu sure makes things interesting, but at the same time, he seems rather unfazed by the predicaments he finds himself in.

    I don’t see any reason why we can’t win the Boot tonight if Reptil can keep us in it as we peck away at deGrom.

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  12. Thoughts

    • Last night’s game almost killed me. You get way ahead of them but stop scoring. Then you let them come back late and keep putting runners on base. But they held on and are in good shape vs. the Rangers for the Wild Card.
    • Can’t get too mad at de los Santos – he has been good overall in unexpected high leverage situations. Before last night, since joining the Astros in 16 games he had been 3-0 with 1 save and a 1.13 ERA. If you go back – he threw a perfect pitch for strike three that was not called a strike and led to the walk of Tellez, otherwise he would have been sitting in the dugout with a shutout inning.
    • Blubaugh was impressive coming out of the chute striking out the first four he faced and then going on to 3 innings of 2 hit / 0 runs/ 1 walk/ 7 Ks. The young man has come a long way since his debut.
    • Gordon (3 innings/ 1 run) and Murray (1 clean inning) were just what the doctor ordered.
    • They had just enough offense with 3 hits and a walk from Pena, 2 hits from Correa, a couple RBIs from Sanchez, etc. to hold on.
    • Since Josh Hader left the building, Bryan Abreu is 0-1 with 7 saves/ 1 blown save/ 4.50 ERA (he had a 1.72 ERA before Hader’s injury) and what drives fans crazy – in his last 16 games he has a 1.625 WHIP (that being how many hits + walks he gives up per inning). Before taking over as closer, he had a much better 1.052 WHIP. He is walking that tightrope every time out it seems.
    • The Astros are still a half game back of the Mariners for the AL West. They are now in the second Wild Card spot a half game ahead of the Red Sox who have the last spot. The Guardindians are 3 games back of the Astros and the Rangers are 4 games back.
    • The Astros squeezed out a win against deGrom last time they met – on Sept. 6th. That was the televised game where the announcers kept praising deGrom even as he was giving up some runs. Javier is coming off two losses in a row where he gave up 4 runs in 4.2 and 6 innings each. A sweep would be a big deal heading into the Mariner series.

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    • I’m sure bad calls by the home plate umps even out in the long run, but when the guy on the mound executes a perfect pitch, he has to get rewarded for it. Those missed calls change far too many games, both ways. 2026 will remedy some of those situations finally.

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