This is a tough post to write. The Astros have been a remarkable team to follow since that first out of nowhere playoff appearance in 2015. They have been so consistent with this playoff run from 2017 to 2024 and that ALCS and beyond string between 2017 and 2023. Seven ALCS appearances, four World Series appearances and two World Championships for a team that had only four CS appearances, one WS appearance and no championships between 1962 and 2017.
This season has been the craziest run that I can remember since first watching them in 1966. In our last post we covered all the pitching injuries that have decimated this team in the recent past and especially this season. Astros’ 2025: A couple more questions – ALL THINGS ASTROS
That does not even touch on the fact that this team started the season with two of their biggest 2024 offensive threats – Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman – playing for other teams. And how the biggest offensive threat still with the club, Yordan Alvarez missed 100 games from early May to late August. And having to work around losing Jake Meyers for a lengthy stay on the IL when he was producing better than anytime in his career.
But somehow for most of 2025 this team was surprising us by not only overcoming this slew of injuries but thriving as they stretched out to 20 games above .500 and a 7-game lead in early July.
They’ve gone 23-32 since that apex point and now sit just one game up on the Mariners, and 2-1/2 up on the hard charging Rangers, who at this point they would be vying with for the last Wild Card spot in the AL.
Even though the Astros have been patching and bailing out this ship on the run, they are in peril and this week may have been the tipping point.
What happened this past week? Some would say more of the same problems they have had, but to me they are very close to going over the edge and plummeting.
- The most disturbing may have been the meltdown of Framber Valdez and his turning on his teammate Cesar Salazar in front of everybody. This article in chron.com (Spit!!) points at more going on in his fragile psyche. Houston Astros’ Framber Valdez hints at ‘hurt’ feelings on X
- Then as Chip pointed out the Astros posted that both Brandon Walter and John Rooney would be having surgery on their elbows this week. And Spencer Arrighetti is getting a second opinion on his elbow, which 99% of the time ends up in the operating room.
- Tuesday night Luis Garcia, who had pitched well in his return from 2 years away from the majors, walked off the mound in the 2nd inning pointing at his elbow.
- Closer Josh Hader was supposed to rest his arm and begin throwing after three weeks. He has not. Replacement closer Bryan Abreu blew the save Tuesday and continued a bad couple weeks where he has given up 8 runs in 3.2 innings for a sterling 19.64 ERA.
- Friend of the blog, Daveb pointed out, Jose Altuve has become a problem. Not only is he slumping hard (.136 BA/ .206 OBP/ .482 OPS) in his last 14 games, he also was a weak link on Tuesday by a) Not hustling when he was the Manfred runner in the 10th inning being gunned down by Vlad Guerrero Jr., who inherited his dad’s cannon arm even though he plays 1B…..and b) Not being able to throw out Vlad with his own noodle arm in the bottom of the 10th, which led to the Astros playing in with one out instead of playing back with two out and likely getting out of the inning.
- They have gone on a run of not being able to drive in runners in scoring position, which has left fans very discouraged when watching them play.
Yes, the Astros are still in first place, but it looks like for not very long. And similarly, they still have a shot at the wild card, but that won’t happen the way they are playing right now.
I’ve been wrong about this particular team a number of times this season, but it feels like they have just passed the tipping point and they may be sitting at home for the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
37 responses to “September 9, 2025: The Astros’ tipping point?”
I had not read that cryptic X post by Framber. I hope that helps make a decision to move on from him easier for the front office.
I also hope something ignites this team just once more. But yeah, I’d be surprised too.
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I think that folks know that while I am not a pure homer, that I am overall a positive minded person. But I know all these injuries/surgeries/failure to return from IL items pile on me terribly and frankly they have to be piling on this team’s psyche. At what point do you decide that this is just not your season?
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Dan, it’s been a weird season all across baseball. You’ll have only handful of teams win 90 games, and one of those may or may not be the Dodgers or Yankees.
Yes, the Astros are one-game up on Seattle right now, but it’s possible that only the dividion winner makes the playoffs from the AL West! Seattle doesn’t want it either, so Texas seems to be saying, well, if neither of you want it, we’ll take it, and you can stay home.
There’s still time to correct the course, but I’m not sure that Joe has many more tricks to pull out of his bag!
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Things can always turn around on a dime in this craziest and streakiest of all sports. But the only kind of momentum they have right now is negative. The weird thing is a series of ifs…..
If…Javier steps up
If…Framber grows up
If….Abreu chills out
If…Altuve finds the fountain of youth
If….Hunter stays hot
If…J.P. France comes back solid
If…Yordan can keep it up
If…Paredes heals his hammy
If…Diaz learns how to catch the ball (and hit it)
And on and on and on – but truly there is potential for the team to play much better but they need to do it – not just talk about it.
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Dan, we don’t need to have Altuve find the fountain of youth. We need him to find his Hall of Fame credentials and show some veteran leadership rather than looking like a confused rookie out there. He let himself get absolutely punked by Vlad last night and I’m sure guys were sitting in clubhouses all around the league laughing about that play.
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Good morning!
I can’t get over what Alexander has done for this team. He is the difference between being in it or not. The Astros are now 10-1 in his appearances.
Okert deserved a better fate last night. He had a couple of grounders become base hits and a hesitency from Cam to lay out for what would have been a big catch. Cam does not like to go down for a ball. It was a tough 8th, but somehow Santa got big outs from Springer and Vlad to keep it tied.
Huge dinger in the 9th from Diaz, helping avoid another Manfred game. I just don’t know why Joe had Altuve pinch hit for Urias after getting the lead back. Urias was the much better defensive choice to remain at second when Abreu came in for the save in the 9th.
Great to see Abreu smiling and getting those three outs.
Still can’t seem to get the bats going. Overall, our boys are not doing enough special things at the plate or on the field, but they are still in it.
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I don’t tend like to get close to political. But if America is to the point where people are silenced by a bullet for their views, America needs to look at itself closely. Charlie Kirk was a husband and a father of two young kids and a very brilliant and logical mind and should be breathing today.
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He should be. So should Melissa Hortmann. President Trump shouldn’t be dodging bullets. I would consider myself on the opposite political side of Charlie Kirk, but man I sure enjoyed listening to his POV. He listened as much as he talked, and he was an intent listener. He was never rude. If they all acted like Charlie Kirk there could be tremendous discourse in this country.
We’ve allowed social media to turn this country into a warzone because of ramped up rhetoric. It’s a shame. We’ve seen the killing of a Democratic lawmaker in Minnesota and the attempt on another. The attempt on President Trump. The attempt on Governor Shapiro. Now this. All of this just in the last 12 months. Maybe this will just be a blip, and it stops. Like slumps for ball players, maybe its just a blip on otherwise peaceful period. But man, sometimes I think Conservatives and Liberals have just become that old married couple that can’t get along after 40 years and just blame each other for every small thing. They need therapy, but they don’t know how. Some of the things I see on facebook, people need therapy, because unlike that married couple, divorce is not an option.
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Very true, Steven – it bothers me that a young man like that – only 31 – was doing what I hope folks from both sides would do – talk politely and listen to the other side. They are trying to paint him as something he isn’t. Just watch a youtube of him and you know what he was about.
Thank you for sharing Steven – folks that serve this country like President Trump, Governor Shapiro, Justice Kavanaugh, Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortmann, and Rep Steve Scalise and those who loved it and just wanted to share the freedom of speech with others like Charlie Kirk should not do so fearing for their lives. We are better than this – at least most of us are.
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I sent this text to my brother yesterday afternoon: “I’m so tired of people whacking people for political reasons, further destabilizing our country by design.”
This is a dangerous time in America. And that shooter yesterday was no rookie. Those elected at every level need to grow up, quit attacking each other, sit down together and figure out how they are going to make the United States united again. Otherwise we’ll continue to be weakened.
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Yes, very good points, daveb. We are Americans – not fascists, not Nazis, not Mafia, not Communists (except for the guy running for NYC mayor). Calling each other names like Hitler or KKK or whatever gives folks the idea that we deserve to die. This hyperbole is driving the actions.
Today is the anniversary of 9/11. We united then – but it didn’t last. It would be nice if we could unite without having a catastrophe causing it.
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Baseball thoughts
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About Correa, notice he does a large amount of the talking when the coaches and infielders gather at the pitching mound. He is the straw that stirs the drink. His leadership will be valuable in the coming seasons.
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Sarge, as long as he hits.
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Thanks Dan! It’s been a crazy season, but I’m not ready to give up just yet. I still have some hope that they can put it together and have a good run these last few weeks carrying into the playoffs! That being said, I was really disappointed by Altuve’s lack of hustle/urgency on the baserunning and the fielding miscues. He is a team leader, and it’s disheartening to see. It’s one thing to lose because of things that CAN’T be controlled (injuries). It’s another to lose because of things that CAN (hustle/heart). I have a lot of respect for Altuve, which made it that much harder to stomach.
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Good points Joe – players have to maximize what they do control and Jose is not doing that right now.
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It is funny – the tipping point takes me back to the first time Chip published a post I wrote on the Astros back in 2010 if I remember correctly on Chron.om (Spit!!). The link to that no longer works, but here it is in all it’s glory. If it will let me post this long a comment.
Dan asks you to pinpoint the Astros’ tipping point
Dan Peschong is a long-time Astros’ fan and poses an interesting assignment today.
• •• ••• •• •
First, I want to thank Chip for giving me the “keys” to the blog for a day. He does a great job of spurring thoughtful conversation and you – the readers and contributors – keep the discussions at a high, fact filled level.
Back in 2000, I read a great book, The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell. Earlier in his career as a writer, Gladwell had worked on the AIDS epidemic story line and had learned about the term, tipping point from some epidemologists. In this context it described the point when the spread of a disease hit critical mass and became an epidemic.
In his book, Gladwell applied this concept outside the medical field to such varied situations as the sudden drop in the murder rate in New York City , Sesame Street becoming a mass educational happening, the increase in teenage smoking despite the dangers, etc. In each case he identified that there needed to be a certain fertile ground to make this happen, including having the right (or wrong) people to spread and sell the message, having an impactful message and having this occur at a time when the conditions were right for a massive paradigm shift. The tipping point was the action or occurrence that could be pointed to as the boiling point – the single point that set off the inevitable perfect storm.
OK – I know I am stretching things to apply this to the 2010 Astros – but please, play along with me. What single action would you point to as the one that triggered the awfulness that is this year’s Astros?
Here’s your chance to plead your case for any of the following as the single, most significant “tipping point”:
•The firing of Gerry Hunsicker.
• The decision by the organization to not go above the “Selig” slots in signing draftees – particularly in 2007.
• The Carlos Lee 6 year / $100 million signing.
• Not re-signing Andy Pettitte.
• Trading prospects for Tejada or Jennings or Valverde.
• Not trading Tejada or Valverde or Hawkins in 2009.
• Hiring Ed Wade.
• Drayton buying the team.
• Late season success masking the organization’s problems.
• Firing Dierker or Williams or Garner or Cooper.
• Not firing Sean Berry.
• Not making Tal Smith retire.
• Not making Milo retire.
• Moving Jose Lima from the Dome to Enron/MMP.
• Taking Enron’s dirty money.
• Or any other thought you may have.
You may think that I am a raving loony – but my own answer to this question is …… the tipping point that led to where we are now was the Astros once in a millennium comeback to make it to the World Series in 2005. I’m not saying I would rather that not have occurred – it was fantastic.
But it reinforced a lot of things in Drayton’s thinking that sank the organization. To him, it meant that his team could contend no matter who they did not re-sign (losing Kent and Beltran after 2004 may have led to losing Pettitte after 2006). To him, it meant that a bad start to a season did not mean any re-building was required – just wait around and the team will go on an unbelievable tear.
But of the most importance — to him, it meant that he did not need a strong voice like Gerry Hunsicker (let go after 2004) around to help keep him on the straight and narrow. He had his way with not spending the dollars needed to bring in the best draft choices. He had his way in holding on to folks as much for their sellability as their ability. He had his way in making a flashy/over-paying signing for someone like Carlos Lee. And he had his way in never seeing the writing on the wall and allowing the word rebuilding to be uttered prior to the train wreck.
Perhaps if they had collapsed in 2005 without Hunsicker, McLane would have realized the large error he made – but instead he was suckered in by his short term success.
Anyway – have fun with pinpointing your tipping point on which action made the Astros 2010 debacle inevitable.
• •• ••• •• •
Even with all of the discussion recently on Michael Bourn – I wanted to throw out a couple comments on him being named to the All-Star team.
1. I was flipping around the channels yesterday and tripped across My Cousin Vinny and even though I’ve seen part or all of the movie dozens of times – I again watched it from that point until the end. Marisa Tomei won the Best Supporting Actress award that year in a Bournian moment. This was not a typical role to either get nominated for and certainly not to win. But even though she beat out some very distinguished names for the award (Judy Davis, Miranda Richardson, Vanessa Redgrave and Joan Plowright), truthfully – hers is the only role and movie I ever watch from that year.
Her performance was good, fun and entertaining – just like Michael Bourn. Bourn is one of the few fun things about this year’s club.
2. The whole discussion of whether XXXXX is a worthy representative is one that occurred often in the early days of Astros baseball, but we have been spoiled in recent years by having one or more strong representatives in the All Star Game.
The last time we had questions about our representative – I would say – was in 2000 (another bad year in Astros baseball). Shane Reynolds (our only rep) started off the year strong, but after getting torched a couple of times just prior to the mid-summer classic his stats at the break were 6-5 with a 4.17 ERA. He ended the year 7-8 with a 5.22 ERA.
Of course, that year the Astros should have been represented by a slow starting Jeff Bagwell, who got hot after being dissed by the selectors and was sporting a .294 BA, 23 HR and 64 RBI at the break. Incredibly, Bagwell did not make the All Star team in 2000 when he ended up batting .310 while scoring 152 runs with 47 HRs and 132 RBI. He didn’t make it in 2001 either, when he hit .288 with 126 runs, 39 HRs and 130 RBIs!
• •• ••• •• •
Dan Peschong (2nd from the left in the picture from Iraq in 2003) is a project engineer and has been married 30 years to Mary with 4 sons — Thomas, Peter, Adam and Ryan. He was born in Milwaukee , Wisconsin , but moved to Houston in 1965 and has been a die-hard Astro fan ever since.
(It references a picture that won’t post here).
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THE tipping point… really hard to put one’s finger on it.
I do know that on July 6th, the club was 20 games over and had a W-L of .611%. Since that date, they have gone 24-32 for a W-L of .429. What could have happened on July 7th that caused the swoon?
I would venture that since July 19th, the day that Isaac Paredes injured his hamstring, that was the tipping point of this season. Remember, he injured the hamstring earlier and we all thought he would be out for awhile but came back early. Perhaps, THAT was the actual tipping point!
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I can’t argue much with that sarge – Paredes was so important to this lineup – working the heck out of every pitcher and every at bat. It has not felt the same since then.
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Framber is bitter medicine. Without his June and July we would not be where we are, in first place. Without his August and September, we would not be where we are, clinging on by our fingernails. He probably cost himself 40M with this finish and his antics.
I doubt the Astros have ever thought he would be back. And I’m fine with that. He is about to turn 32 in 2 months. We have likely gotten both his cheapest and best years. I’ve said many times in the past it took the whole village to win the way this team has won the last 10 years, but if any one individual is the most responsible for the last 5 – its Framber. But they should avoid the kind of contract that is paying a pitcher a 30M+ a year deal in his age 35-38 seasons for mediocrity and injury. It’s very possible a team pulls a Boston/Bregman type deal that pays an insane AAV with opt outs to not have him on their roster in 2029. I wouldn’t think the Astros are in the chute for that one either.
The Jekyll/Hyde of this offense is frustrating. Just seeing strings of games where they score 1, 2, or 3 runs interrupted by the occasional 8-11 run outburst has really become glaring because what started as an inhuman pitching staff is now human. As I write this the Jays are up 4-0 in the 6th, and it feels like this game is over. What was frustrating about losing game 1 and almost game 2, the Jays got hits when they needed them, and until Yainer in 10th inning, the Astros were generating nothing off this Jays bullpen.
I’m still optimistic we will be playing in the first round of the playoffs, either as a WC or division winner, but it looks more and more like the WC, so visiting either Boston or NY. Neither one would be a 3 game set I would feel good about it, but we could win it if Hunter shows out in game 1.
I hope they learn some lessons going into next season. My opinions – don’t skimp the bullpen again, build more depth than 6 starters (he didn’t plan Alexander and Walter, they just got lucky). Build depth in the lineup. You spend a ton of money on a few guys, you sign some bad contracts, and your owner initially insists staying under the cap – skimp elsewhere than the bullpen. They may not pitch as many innings, but they pitch some extremely important innings. The fact that Phil Maton is out there pitching for 2M, is that where we really wanted to skimp? But I readily admit the addition of Carlos Correa, who will probably not perform to the contract he is earning, will continue the process of skimping. I can’t imagine that Urias, Dubon, and Paredes all 3 will be on this roster next year. Jake Meyers may not survive it either. Chas might as well put his home up for sale right now. And the likely replacements are probably coming from the donation bin as we pick up other teams discards. I just don’t know how many more times I can watch Cooper Hummel waddle around the bases, play a mediocre LF, and hit .170. Or Zach Short. Or Taylor Trammell. Or Brendan Rodgers. Or Luis Guillorme. You get it.
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The definition of insanity: Doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. Example LMJ pitching 2 innings and giving up two more runs. And of course there’s batting Altuve in the clean up spot. Is he becoming an empty uniform? This really pains me to watch this so I won’t.
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I just don’t know if this battered team (mentally and physically) has September baseball in them.
In fact, they continue to play pretty bad baseball, but it is after all a compromised group. And they look gassed too.
I’m about ready to talk about the off season, but there will be plenty of time for that. I’m just not ready to hang it up yet. I think it’s habit after the past decade.
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I told the Mrs., just a few minutes ago, that the team seems to be going through the motions now. So sad to see.
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They’re certainly not having any fun Sarge.
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I think the tipping point came when the veteran ace of the rotation mailed it in a week or so ago. Up until that point I thought they had a shot.
This team hanging in there with a virtual entire staff going on the IL this season fought gallantly. But, they just ran out of players who could help them overcome and ended up with too many below average players on the field.
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Today was the worst day defensively for a right fielder I have ever seen.
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Absolutely horrible. It’s going to be lost by the fact that in the history of baseball no team has yet to win a game where they score 0 runs so it doesn’t really matter, but Sanchez looked like a 12 year old playing Pony league out there today.
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I missed our RF shenanigans, but I did see a replay of the walk-off sacrifice fly in the SEA-ANA game and question whether the RFer had ever played been in a situation where a runner was tagging from third based on how he approached it.
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Thoughts
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I’m not bothering to look it up, but it feels like Gausman always dominates Houston to the point we may as well not show up. Maybe he holds a grudge that Luhnow took Correa over him in the draft?
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In his career – Gausman has pitched in 9 games against the Astros all starts – he is 4-5 with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.083 WHIP. This year he has yesterday’s full game shutout and back in April 6 innings of 4 run ball.
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Zach Cole will join the Astros tonight. Can the kid gave us a spark? We don’t need anymore strike outs and he’s been a machine in that regard. But he is hot.
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hopeless. Strikes out. Oh, what, in his fourth AB?!
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hopeless. Strikes out. Oh, what, in his fourth AB?!
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Dana Brown to Lance McCullers:
“Lance, you have not come around as well as we have expected. You are coming down with hand soreness for the rest of the season. “
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Good morning. We sure got a boost from the 25 year old new kid. I was really impressed with the catch early. Zach looks like a baseball player. Maybe he can be the 2025 version of J.R. Towles.
I’m hoping our guys can hang in until the M’s and Rangers run out of steam. They can’t keep winning every night can they?
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This is important too. I forgot to mention Murray, Blubaugh, Hernandez and Gordon. The all rookie pitching brigade. They sure gave the pen a breather when they really needed one.
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