It seems time to ask a two or three more questions about the team. What do you think?
- Two for one question – Will the Astros attempt to re-sign Framber Valdez this off-season? Should the Astros attempt to re-sign Framber Valdez this off-season?
Framber Pros
- Extremely durable – the last four seasons he has started 31, 31, 28 and 28 (and counting) games and has thrown between 176 and 201 innings.
- Solid stats – in those 4 seasons he has been between 2.82 and 3.45 ERA. Among pitchers with enough innings to qualify, he has been sixth, seventh, eighth, third, and currently eleventh in the AL in ERA.
- He has been in the top 10 in the Cy Young voting the previous 3 seasons.
- He is a lefty, which the Astros have long been lacking in starters for their staff.
- He may come at a bit of a discount. Incidents like the recent meltdown with Cesar Salazar do not go unnoticed and may knock down his eventual salary, along with some performance issues discussed below.
Framber Cons
- His mental meltdowns become physical meltdowns and affect his performance and seem to be occurring more frequently.
- He is no longer the 25 consecutive quality start pitcher that made him so valuable in 2022.
- Along those lines, this season in the critical 7 starts since the first of August, he is 1-6 with a 5.95 ERA.
- And after pitching brilliantly in the 2022 Championship march, his last 4 post season starts he is 0-4 with an 8.27 ERA in only 16.1 innings total.
- He will be 32 entering next season and will no doubt be wanting a 6+ season contract at a predicted $180 million, give or take.
- Is it the medical staff or the pitching “process” that is responsible for the Astros string of injuries?
A reminder of what we are talking about since the Championship run in 2022 (and I apologize if I miss anyone, but it is an insanely long list).
- Lance McCullers Jr. – He came back from injury towards the end of the 2022 season and then pitched well until apparently blowing out his arm in an infamous (5 HRs in 4.1 innings) World Series appearance. He had flexor tendon surgery in June 2023 and then did not throw a MLB pitch until mid-season this year.
- Justin Verlander – who missed almost all of 2020 and 2021 after Tommy John surgery, also missed a month of 2024 with a shoulder injury and another month and a half with a neck injury.
- Luis Garcia – Blew out his arm in May 2023 and took 28 months to recover from Tommy John surgery.
- Cristian Javier – Blew out his arm in May 2024 and came back 15 months later after recovery from Tommy John surgery.
- J.P. France – Blew out his arm in April 2024 and is rehabbing currently after his shoulder surgery last season.
- Jose Urquidy – Blew out his arm during the 2024 Spring Training and then had Tommy John Surgery and was released by the team in the 2025 off-season. He was picked up by the Tigers and has pitched for a couple of their minor league teams this season.
- Hayden Wesneski – Blew out his arm in May 2025 after 6 starts and had Tommy John surgery.
- Ronel Blanco – Blew out his arm in May 2025 after 9 starts and had Tommy John surgery.
- Spencer Arrighetti – Missed time due to a freak injury – broken finger – after being hit by an errant batting practice ball. But now after returning for 5 starts is back on the IL with the dreaded elbow inflammation and is likely out for the season.
- Brandon Walter – After 9 starts was placed on the 15 day IL and then moved to the 60 day IL due to elbow inflammation. No word on either a return to the team or a trip to the surgeon so far.
- Josh Hader – After 48 appearances was put on the IL in early August with a shoulder strain. Hopes to return by the playoffs (if the team makes it).
- Bennett Sousa – After 44 appearances he went on the IL with a mild flexor/pronator strain (elbow). Right now he might make it back in the postseason, if….they make it.
- Kaleb Ort – After 49 appearances he was put on the IL with….stop me if you’ve heard this before….elbow inflammation. He also will at best make it back in the postseason, if….they make it.
For those scoring at home that is 10 starters, 1 closer and two other relievers going down in about a two – three year window and seven of them (4 starters, 1 closer, 2 relievers) since the start of this season. It would be easy to blame the medical staff, but jeez Louise how is usage, spin rates, pitch mixes attributing to this?
Anyways, what is your take on these two critical questions?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
20 responses to “Astros’ 2025: A couple more questions”
I think the Astros and Framber are ready to move on.
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No to Framber and please: get a new medical staff.
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Great summary! I get that statistics are an uneven thing, but wow this should certainly inspire some organization level deep evaluation.
One other pitcher from this time frame is Jake Bloss – he also went season ended UCL surgery in May of this year (I think it is fair to include him and Urquidy for this exercise).
I’ve attempted searches (AI aided and not) to ascertain how great of an outlier this situation is. I cannot find an example of any team having 19 guys on the IL (or DL) at the same time.
The 2025 Dodgers are another example of many injured pitchers – they also preach high spin rate and seem to treat their staff as fungible assets rather than unique, important contributors.
While admittedly anecdotal, this season seems to have more cases of players being asked to pitch beyond their initial half inning, then pretty soon after becoming injured or ineffective. Hader is the obvious example, but this has also appeared to affect Sousa, Ort, Dubin and Okert (less effective, not injured) as well as Tay Scott last year (his second half regression may have been fatigue, but it did also follow a surprise start following the Bloss trade that had him throw three plus innings if I recall).
Thank you for continuing the thoughtful posts – I enjoy baseball and this team to a perhaps unhealthy degree. A lifetime of Astros fandom has certainly made me appreciate this very special window of performance. I don’t wish to be greedy in asking for more, but I also fear the regret of missed opportunity due to our own errors rather than simply being bested by a better team.
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MJ – welcome – thank you for the kind words and the good discussion. I had no idea Bloss had gone down. That is too bad, I hate that for any player.
I forgot one from this year – John Rooney who pitched in his major league debut and then immediately went on the IL with …. Elbow inflammation.
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Unless he gets hurt or intentionally throws a fastball at Jim Crane’s dog they will give him a qualifying offer. He’ll turn it down and they’ll do this dance where Brown says things like signing Framber is the team’s number one priority, but they’ll avoid making any contract offer he might accept. Ultimately, he’ll sign in Boston and the fans there will go through lots of mental gymnastics before coming up with explanations for his meltdowns in Houston that effectively place the blame everywhere else.
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I agree with Devin. The club will submit an offer to protect their chance at gaining another draft choice for next year. However, they are not going to be actively signing him.
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If I was Dana Brown directed by Jim Crane, I would not offer Framber more than 5 years / 150M… but I am not them. I would offer him less than that. Either way, I think someone else would likely offer more years and more $$$.
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You guys already know my position on Framber. But I also believe that if this club has any problem in the clubhouse, Framber is the cause of it. There is just too much baggage. I’m not going to go into all my other issues with Framber though.
That said, he could come at a relative bargain and Dana Brown might well wonder where else he can almost be guaranteed of 175 to 200 innings from one guy next year. Heck though, when will this club move on and really change course? The organization has quite a few issues, both on and off the field. And I know we’ll talk about them in a few weeks.
I don’t think the medical staff creates the injuries, either to pitchers or guys on offense. But the medical staff has clearly misdiagnosed injuries. They have likely failed in the rehabilitation process of multiple baseball players, delaying their return, or worse, allowing an injury to become more serious.
I do believe though that most of our pitching injuries are the result of players doing things with their arms that they were not designed to do. And guys like Walter were high risk all along. The club knew it and I’m sure he knew it. The guy wanted to play baseball though. He’s not the only one.
But most of those big injuries were simply the result of guys that were trying to be competitive in a game that really requires an almost reckless physical commitment from pitchers. And these days, those pitchers are throwing hard and trying to increase spin rate when they are 12 years old. They’ve been coached that way. For some, it’s about the chance of a financial future that nothing else can provide.
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Hate to be a broken record but in Framber’s last 7 games he’s 1 and 5 with a 5.95 era and a 1.44 WHIP. I still think we should have traded him when we had the chance. Yes, I know our pitching staff has been riddled with injuries but I think we could have gotten at least one ready to go starter and maybe a couple of prospects. We already knew he was an emotional basket case even before the “incident”. Our chances of resigning him was pretty slim anyway as there’s no way Dana Brown was going to give him 5/150 or more unless he’s not in his right mind.
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I’ve got no idea how this team is still in first except to think this is a league beset with parity. There is no team on “pace” to win 100 this year, and only the Brewers have a chance. If the Rockies don’t exist we could have a season where no one wins 100 or loses 100. I sometimes wonder what the vibe is in the clubhouse. They know for roughly 2 months they have just not been a very good baseball team, but they look up at the standings and they think, hey, we are a pretty good baseball team. Who knows.
Pitching injuries are what they are. I don’t know if there is an organizational philosophy to blame or the idea that these guys are learning velocity and spin from a young age. Hopefully they figure it out.
I would not resign Framber. But I would not have traded for Correa either. I just don’t get any contract in baseball that goes well into a player’s “past prime.” It’s not 100%, but it’s likely we have gotten Framber’s best years, and for a premium price. The idea of paying him 30M+ a year into his late 30s, especially for a pitcher, is how you end up spending money having to fix your rotation. Players always want contracts that award what they have done, but good baseball teams either spend an inordinate amount of money or they think of contracts as what you are going to do for me. If Crane wants to spend like the Dodgers, he will resign Valdez, then in 2028 have to spend on someone to start winning when Framber is a below .500 pitcher.
At the same time, somebody has to throw the ball at the catcher that has a reasonable chance to get an out. I’m not sure the Astros got the next man up this time. When I watch Blubaugh pitch I feel he is better than his numbers suggest, but in the end its a result driven league. There is more to pitching than just being able to touch 97 when you get in trouble.
Isaac Paredes has been working out in Florida at 2B. If they open next year with Altuve/Yordan as the full time LF combo they will put Cam in the position of having to earn his starting job as Sanchez is likely the RFer most nights. The few clips I saw it looked like to me Isaac was down 10 pounds. He looked like he was moving well. But the one thing we’ve learned about the Astros, there is zero chance everyone stays healthy anyway. If we can get Isaac and Carlos to coordinate their injuries next year so that at least is available all the time, we can have our first “injury” platoon. If only it worked that way.
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Steven – the Astros keep playing like a team that expects at some time to turn it on and that is a dangerous thing to do (see Hare vs. Tortoise from Aesop).
It would be a much deeper lineup if Paredes is in it, but I thought it would be a much deeper lineup with Correa, Sanchez, Yordan and Meyers added to it. But it still loves to stumble.
But you speak the truth – the closest thing to a dominant team is the one the Astros play the next three games and the fact they are only 4-1/2 games ahead of the Astros (a very flawed team) tells you all you need to know about baseball this season.
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The 2026 roster is going to be interesting. I don’t think Crane will be happy. I still lean towards 2027 will be impacted by a strike so who knows that far in advance, but the Astros either get to give Dubon a pay raise or let him walk. Paredes gets a pay raise. Urias goes to his first year of arbitration and gets a pay raise. I suppose Carlos Correa is your backup SS next year? We probably should lobby Manfred for a rule change letting us play 3 DHs instead of 1.
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And speaking of elbows – Zach Dezenzo had his rehab stopped due to an elbow strain on a throw from the outfield. This is crazy isn’t it?
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They may attempt to resign Framber but I believe this divorce should be finalized. While that ship has sailed I wished they would have done so during the trade deadline. I can’t imagine what DB could have gotten in return for that trade but I believe he would have brought home some good players to work with for 2026 and beyond. As good and durable as Framber has been let him be someone else’s problem.
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Well, Dan I’m back from all my travels (for awhile).
We now know that Walter and Rooney won’t be back because they’ll have elbow surgery soon. Arrighetti is going for the dreaded “second opinion.”
Who’s in charge of Astros’ medical?
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And they just replaced Luis Garcia in the second inning with an injury.
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Are elbow surgeries cheaper by the gross?
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By the end of the week we’ll be in 3rd place at this rate. Abreu may be a great set up guy but he’s no closer. And another game with pathetic RISP. And how stupid is it to put Altuve in the cleanup spot. Other than that the weather here is great and I’m playing golf tomorrow.
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Good morning. At the age of 70 I don’t dwell on an Astro loss quite as deeply as I used to. There are just too many issues in life these days that take precedent.
But last night I was really saddened when Luis Garcia threw that last pitch, perhaps the last one of his career. He’s a good kid that has worked so hard to make a long comeback from that damn injury. Imagine going out to the mound and having to pitch to major leaguers and not being able to touch more than 91 on the gun after being able to reach back and get 96-97 just a couple of years ago. Having to discard a wind up used all his life, one that was legal in MLB. He had to know there was a pretty good chance his arm would not hold up.
Plenty of people cursing Brain Abreu last night late. These are presumably a small minority of Astro fans, maybe simply too ignorant to grasp the remarkable decade this team has given the city of Houston. And Brian Abreu? He’s not a Closer. He’s a great set up man, and fully willing to go out and try to finish games, but at this point, that’s not his level of expertise and perhaps mental make up. And separately, I think he pitches better when a bit overused if that’s possible. When he comes in fully rested, he has a hard time finding the strike zone until it’s too late sometimes.
But by far, the most vexing issue right now is what to do about Jose Altuve. Jose, my favorite Astro since showing up from Corpus in 2011. I followed him from Greeneville. The face of our franchise. And today, his presence on the field is hurting his team. Last night he assumed Vlad Junior would field the grounder off of Caratini’s bat and take the out at first. So he didn’t hustle to third. In the 10th inning. In September. Gunned down easily. His own boys in the dugout were not happy. Blummer brought the replay back up showing his lack of hustle. He’s in a bad slump and it’s obviously affecting him mentally. He should have been replaced at second base by Ramon Urias in the 9th for defensive purposes. I’ve shaken my head many times watching too many poor on field decisions by Jose over the years, usually the result of over exuberance. But last night was the first time I’ve really been pissed off by his actions on the field. And I hate to feel that way, because Jose has provided so many dramatic moments over the years.
Today, for the first time, I do believe our Astros are teetering on the edge. They’ve hung on to first place through an impossible array of injuries. But we’re just not playing enough good baseball.
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I don’t want to sound like I’m defending them too much, but I think this shows just how much more of a mental grind the year has been for them. The Garcia and Arrighetti injuries have to be taking things to another level in the clubhouse. Hopefully they can pull things together enough to win those head-to-heads with TEX and SEA coming up and breathe a little easier.
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