Astros’ 2025: Defining clutch

The Astros rough spell lately with hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP) and scoring period has brought almost universal agreement among the fans that this team is just not clutch. When anything is almost universally agreed upon with the “eye” test, it begs the question for this writer. Do the stats back up that thought process?

So, hang on as I examine both how the team ranks in the American League and how the individual players rank among themselves for three “clutch” categories:

  • RISP – Hitting with runners in scoring position (second and/or third base)
  • 2 Outs RISP – Same thing but with two outs
  • Late and Close – As defined by baseballreference.com – Plate Appearances in the seventh inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.

RISP

 BAOBPOPS
Astros.242.313.717
Blue Jays.282.362.808
Tigers.266.335.793
Rays.275.345.788
Angels.253.344.770
Yanks.248.346.769
Red Sox.250.335.759
A’s.249.322.753
Orioles.242.310.736
Mariners.231.326.720
Guardians.241.329.717
Rangers.245.315.700
Royals.240.305.689
Twins.245.322.687
White Sox.232.319.670

For RISP the Astros rank BA (T-10th), OBP (13th) and OPS (T-10th). Yeah, that is bad with the Astros on the fringe of the bottom third of the league.  I would note that the league average for all at bats is .245 BA/ .314 OBP/ .723 OPS and the Astros are running just under that.

2 outs RISP

 BAOBPOPS
Astros.232.311.738
Tigers.272.360.824
Blue Jays.260.357.768
A’s.245.335.768
Rays.260.345.752
Angels.240.334.734
Mariners.234.316.719
Red Sox.231.318.712
Yanks.211.335.694
White Sox.218.320.691
Rangers.229.318.681
Twins.243.324.684
Guardians.199.309.649
Orioles.198.280.629
Royals.204.294.624

With RISP and two outs, the Astros rank quite a bit better for BA and especially OPS – BA (8th), OBP (12th) and OPS (5th).

Late and Close

 BAOBPOPS
Astros.233.313.701
Blue Jays.272.353.804
A’s.223.309.768
Rays.241.320.752
Mariners.231.316.709
Angels.224.307.682
Royals.237.315.679
Red Sox.227.319.668
Tigers.210.290.665
Yanks.203.289.661
Orioles.215.294.653
Twins.222.304.650
Guardians.225.310.647
Rangers.200.267.590
White Sox.193.285.577

And again, in the late and close situations the Astros are ranking better than their RISP numbers – BA (5th), OBP (6th) and OPS (5th).

While the Astros rank low in hitting with RISP in general, their numbers with 2 outs RISP and for close and late are good, especially OPS which is an important number that normally tracks with run production.

While we can see why teams like the Blue Jays and Tigers are doing so well this season, there are teams like the A’s who do pretty well here, but cannot overcome their pitching when you look at their won-loss numbers.

Now, let’s look at how the individual hitters produce for these same categories. But please note that for some players there is some small sample effects here as it may be based on a small amount of at bats (e.g. Jacob Melton, Jesus Sanchez).

RISP

 BAOBPOPS
Astros.242.313.717
Jeremy Pena.342.4251.069
Yordan Alvarez.364.444.944
Jacob Melton.333.429.873
Ramon Urias.273.273.818
Cam Smith.287.325.795
Victor Caratini.234.276.792
Carlos Correa.310.412.757
Christian Walker.240.325.743
Jose Altuve.242.306.728
Yainer Diaz.241.273.716
Isaac Paredes.222.316.661
Jake Meyers.203.319.641
Jesus Sanchez.174.321.539
Mauricio Dubon.229.261.526
Chas McCormick.150.182.482
  • What makes sense – Your two best hitters with RISP are Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez. Some of your worst are Mauricio Dubon and Chas McCormick who are not doing too well overall this year.
  • What does not make sense – Jacob Melton doing that well (in very few at bats) and Isaac Paredes can’t possibly that bad – he was one of our best and most clutch hitters. Hold that thought for the next two categories.

2 outs RISP

 BAOBPOPS
Astros.232.311.738
Jeremy Pena.333.4631.312
Yordan Alvarez.455.5711.067
Ramon Urias.167.167.833
Isaac Paredes.275.326.826
Christian Walker.250.325.825
Jose Altuve.229.315.815
Victor Caratini.250.314.814
Cam Smith.263.300.756
Jacob Melton.375.375.750
Jake Meyers.219.342.717
Carlos Correa.214.389.675
Yainer Diaz.193.220.589
Mauricio Dubon.212.255.524
Jesus Sanchez.125.263.388
Chas McCormick.100.100.200
  • What makes sense – Pena and Alvarez of course and suddenly Paredes is up where he belongs. He must have done nothing with RISP and zero or one out – but really bore down with two outs.
  • What does not make sense – Jose Altuve is too good of a hitter to be hitting .229 in these situations, but at least his OPS is good. And frankly, Yainer Diaz should be embarrassed to have a .193 BA/ .220 OBP/ .589 OPS slash with 2 outs and RISP.

Late and Close

 BAOBPOPS
Astros.233.313.701
Isaac Paredes.306.4241.036
Yordan Alvarez.167.304.804
Jose Altuve.257.381.752
Christian Walker.205.276.750
Victor Caratini.283.328.743
Jake Meyers.277.320.724
Carlos Correa.294.368.721
Cam Smith.250.318.718
Ramon Urias.286.286.714
Jeremy Pena.271.377.682
Mauricio Dubon.271.286.661
Yainer Diaz.147.198.451
Chas McCormick.182.250.432
Jacob Melton.000.167.167
Jesus Sanchez.000.200.000

What makes sense – This is the Paredes we picture when we remember the first half of the season. Also, Jacob Melton feeding off the bottom of the menu makes sense.  

What does not make sense – I don’t care what his OPS is – Yordan shouldn’t be hitting .167 in any split you can name. And for having such an overall good season, it is odd that Jeremy Pena’s OPS is below .700. And Yainer…..no words.

My bottom line on this research/writeup is that the Astros are not bottom feeders when it comes to clutch hitting, but trail for pure RISP. Additionally, how individuals are hitting in the clutch is a scattershot – falling all over the place and changing widely from category to category.

Now it is your turn. What stands out to you here?

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32 responses to “Astros’ 2025: Defining clutch”

  2. Just looking at this stuff briefly, two regular players stand out as not very good or flat out bad, depending on the category. Both are free swingers, both don’t work counts. My take is that they make the pitchers job easier in those pressure situations by not forcing good pitches to be thrown. Of course those two guys are Dubon and Diaz.

    But how come Yainer was so good in all three categories last year? After Yordan, he was the guy we wanted at the plate in those situations. A year later, he’s fallen off the chart. Clutch stats can be so confounding.

    Diaz in 2024: RISP BA .346, OBP .353, SLG .509, OPS, 862.

    RISP 2 OUTS BA .299, OBP .329, SLG .552, OPS, .881.

    L & C BA .350, OBP .384, SLG .588, OPS .971.

    Those are elite pressure stats. What happened to Yainer? Those 2024 stats give me hope that with the right direction and commitment, he can become an excellent hitter again. It’s not time to trade him yet.

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    • Have to agree with you Dave. Diaz was not one to take a lot of walks but he sure knew what to do when he hit one. He is not making them pitch to him.

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    • I have to agree with you Dave about Diaz – the talent is there but he’s just not forcing them to pitch to him – he’s letting them get him out on the pitcher’s pitch.

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    • I don’t know, I’m not in the building, but I’ll spit ball what could be a bad theory.

      Yainer was at his best when he wasn’t the everyday catcher. The first year of his career he posted a .846 OPS. He was exactly the guy I thought I saw in his minor league numbers. But he also sat around for a year playing behind a guy who had the job over him because of defense and game management. And he listened to a catcher and a manager both tell him – probably even more so behind the curtain – that his hitting is nice but it’s not his focus. So here we are.

      Early in the offseason last year I had hoped he would be moved to 1B, because I wanted him to start focusing on paying attention to how pitchers wanted to handle his bat. I didn’t want any of his time spent on game preparation, but I would guess at least 60-70% of his pre-game ritual is spent in a room with a computer figuring out how his starter is going to pitch each hitter. He probably has a bunch of smart people around him helping him do that, but he is there too. And that is time he is not spending watching film on his own batting and what pitchers are doing to him. As much as I appreciate Joe more than I did Dusty, we have to remember Joe is still Dusty’s understudy. Yes, he does a lot of things differently. But there is also a lot being done we can’t see that is probably the same.

      Or maybe I’m over thinking it. Maybe he just can’t adjust to the slider because for all the natural talent he has in a batters box, he just can’t pick up spin, and pitchers just adjusted to him.

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  3. Good morning.

    I was kind of hoping that when Yordan got back he’d settle right in, hit the ball and the rest of the line up would follow. Well, he sure did, but they sure did not.

    Maybe Arlington will be a good place for the Astros this weekend. The Strangers know that this is pretty much their last stand. Pre-playoff atmosphere?

    It’s a tough road ahead. Time for our boys to draw from the Astros gene pool.

    On another note, That was the worst performance ever by an MLB umpire crew that I’ve ever seen. And on one more note, Aaron Boone is a real, total butt hole.

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  4. Years ago I read an article, and I don’t even remember by who or where anywhere, but it stuck with me so much that I still believe in the premise today – generally speaking, long term, there is no such thing as a clutch gene. Short term samples give all kinds of weird anomalies – I remember a few years ago how we were all amazed in that roughly his first 400 at bats Singleton actually had a higher batting average against lefties than righties, particularly because when you watch him bat against lefties he might as well walked up there with broom stick.

    That said, I think the Astros approach isn’t the best approach in times when a pitcher may “bear down”, add a tick to his fastball or focus a little more on hitting that spot in the little square we see on TV. Like, they have guys that are little better at forcing their pitch than they had in those free swinging lineups of 2023-2024 teams, but generally speaking there are still a lot of at bats going to the Yainers and Altuves and Walkers of the world to affect the overall numbers. Even Pena still has at bats where its frustrating even if he is better. They just don’t do enough, as a team, to force pitchers to come to them when they need to force it because they are willing to swing outside that little box. Even 2 inches out of that box turns it into you hitting the pitch the pitcher wants you to hit.

    Personally I think the Astros have been due a change in hitting coaches for a long time now. I don’t like blaming coaches for Diaz or Altuve or Pena being “free swingers” or Walker getting to 34, but at least it’s something to show some accountability.

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  5. Steven – I just don’t know what to think about Diaz. Is it because he is spending so much time studying the other team’s hitters. Well, I assume he was doing that last season also and he had a much better year than this year.

    Have they caught up with him and decided that they can pitch him low breaking balls out of the zone most of the time? Maybe. It is confusing when a guy falls off like this.

    It is just like – if the hitting coaches are so bad – why is Pena better this year (recent at bats to the contrary)? Is it all on what he did to improve without them?

    I would like to see accountability. But I am not sure that overcomes flawed or aging hitters.

    Daveb – yes, Yordan is going nutso since he returned. Raised his BA .069 points and his OPS .166 pts in just 9 games. But the team goes 1 for 11 with RISP last night.

    Frustrating game – if they don’t give up those 4 runs in the 8th – I think they come back and win that game.

    Even after reading about the Trammell bat incident – I don’t clearly understand it. Even if he shaved down the bat a bit at the label – what the hell does that do to help you? Corking a bat I understand as an aide. This I don’t.

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    • Dan, I also point to terrible game planning. In my opinion, a bit of fussing at the free swingers and a team wide dedication to working the count would really turn things around. But, if no one enforces this, we see what we currently have.

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  6. Thoughts

    • Every time we think this team has hit the tipping point and is going to collapse – they don’t. Every time we think this team is about to take off and put this division away – they don’t. There are only 21 games left, but the heck if I know what is going to happen.
    • Yordan has been on an unbelievable tear since he came back – .500 BA/ .595 OBP/ 1.380 OPS with only 2 Ks in 37 plate appearances. He also seems to hit almost everything at over 100 mph. Now if he can just lift a few – it will be home run time.
    • I felt a lot better about our pitching just a few days ago. Arrighetti is out after pitching well the last time around. Javier was pedestrian after being excellent last time around.
    • What is going on with the umpire crew – this was a nutty series and they were all over the place

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    • Dan, today might be one of those tipping point days. degrom on the mound tonight. Hunter too. Our pen is battling but those 3 extra innings of pitches sure did not help. I’m also not sure if Lance likes his job well enough to do it. If things get a bit more drastic, Ullola could finally get the call, even with all those free bases he’s given away.

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  7. Dan, yeah, I keep looking at it from the perspective that we ARE still in it with 21 to go and we’ll still be in first place by the end of the weekend. At the same time, I’m also guilty of wondering if it’s all going to fall apart any day now.

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  9. Per my policy, I turn the TV off once we reach Manfred time. Gosh, that must have been an excruciating last three “innings” to watch. I hope those of you who subjected themselves to the ineptness of our batter’s last night are recovering well.

    We still lead by 3.5 games. The Mariners have lost 15 of their last 21 games. Make no mistake, they are keeping us in first place. And they will get home on Monday where they typically start winning. However, the Rangers might well be our biggest threat at this point. I’m just looking for 1 win in Arlington. That’s all. Is that too much?

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    • It was a tough watch Dave – though the bullpen did a great job (I don’t really consider Lance part of the bullpen). The hitting is very disturbing because these guys are better than this. I know I should say they are what they are – but we’ve seen these guys do better many times before.

      I too have been more worried about the Rangers lately. If they sweep us – I think we are in trouble. We win one of the next two – not so bad.

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      • On the flip side Dan, we’ve been in trouble since April. Sometimes I do wonder if Joe Espada just does not have the leadership gene some players need. I’ve also got to say that he has not had an uneventful month all year, even when his guys had the solid July. I feel a bit sorry for him.

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  10. Thoughts

    • Game was there for the taking – but 2 for 14 with RISP could not beat 1 for 14 of the Rangers. You give the Astros the man on 2nd head start three times and nothing happens.
    • Really Correa’s home run off the right field pole was the only clutch hit of the night.
    • Ort on the IL with elbow inflammation – this is unbelievable.
    • And what happened to J.P. France – he had been rehabbing and now he is not even on the injury report.
    • We probably see Meyers in the lineup tonight – maybe he helps, but he wasn’t hitting in his rehab stint.
    • Seven pitchers used last night in vain. We have to hope Luis Garcia can repeat his last 6 inning stint.
    • I gave up when McCullers came in the game – I knew it was hopeless at that point.
    • Can Hunter finally get some support and out duel the other team’s ace de Grom?

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  11. We keep worrying about Seattle but coming up fast are the Rangers and they are licking their chops. Hate to say it but LMJ is toast. If and that’s a big if they make the playoffs he won’t be on the roster unless there is no alternative. It’s pretty sad to think he was so good a few years back but I wouldn’t give you a plug nickel for him now. The season isn’t over but there will need to be some significant changes for 2026 and Isaac Paredes better be in the line up everyday. And how many of us have advocating trading Framber at the deadline. That ship has sailed and we’re standing on the dock looking for the next boat.

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    • The management needs to approach McCullers, in the offseason, and somehow come to an agreement to buy out the rest of his contract. That would do three things, clear his contract off the books for next season, clear more money for another player, and clear a spot on the 40 man roster.

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      • Pretty sure Espada begged to differ, gave everyone a pat on the back after the game and told them how well they played, then handed out tickets so they could redeem their soda at the concession stand and head home.

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  13. Devin, it worked! They put 97 pitches on degrom early and then pillaged their pen! If there is one thing consistent with our guys, it’s that they have short memories.

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  17. Thoughts

    • Yainer Diaz’s defensive struggles are more glaring in a season when he is not hitting up to the talent level we saw in 2024.
    • Framber was good yesterday until he wasn’t. The first run was all on Yainer as he muffed a third strike just below the strike zone then slips while throwing allowing the runner to score from second. The 6th inning he got the first two batters quickly then gave up a couple hits on one great pitch and one catching a little too much of the strike zone. The home run pitch was a meatball down the middle.
    • The Astros had another 1 for with RISP – 1 for 6.
    • They won’t win much with the top four guys going 1 for 15 combined.
    • I am still stewing about the Friday loss, but yesterday’s was a winnable game if they just show some offense early.
    • And then I watch the Texans lose after the Astros and they settle for three first half FGs and no TDs and then get shut out in the second half, fumbling away a potential game winning drive. It was like watching the Astros offense all over again.

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