A baseball season is such a marathon, any particular three-game series is like a half mile out of that 26 mile death march. Not insignificant, but not necessarily that impactful.
But looking at it another way, when the Astros wake up on Monday morning, they could be anywhere from five games ahead in the AL West to trailing the Mariners by a game. So, if either of those extremes happen, this could be a very impactful weekend.
How is the weekend sorting itself out?
Astros (Home) – Angels (Road) Matchup
Astros
- 74-60 – First in AL West
- Last ten games – 5-5
- Home – 40-28
- Road – 34-32
- Offense – 569 runs (11th in AL), .253 BA (3rd), .720 OPS (7th), 151 HR (10th)
- Pitching – 3.86 ERA (5th in AL), 1.22 WHIP (3rd), 39 saves (2nd), 413 walks (7th best)
Angels
- 62-71 – virtual tie for fourth place in the AL West
- Last ten games – 3-7
- Road – 28-36
- Home – 34-35
- Offense – 574 runs (T-8th in AL), .230 BA (14th), .708 OPS (9th), 188 HR (3rd)
- Pitching – 4.81 ERA (Last in AL), 1.44 WHIP (Last), 30 saves (T-10th), 506 walks (Last)
Looking at those numbers – the Astros need to do what they struggled to do against the Rockies. Take advantage of a bad pitching staff. From the other side of the table, they need to try to limit the damage that home runs do to them. The Angels don’t hit well, but they do crank the homers and if the Astros can’t limit those they need to at least try to focus on giving up solo jobs (and not that many of those).
The pitchers for the weekend.
- Cristian Javier (1-1, 5.40 ERA) vs. Tyler Anderson (2-8, 4.73 ERA)
- Spencer Arrighetti (1-5, 6.21 ERA) vs. Kyle Hendricks (6-9, 5.04 ERA)
- Hunter Brown (10-6, 2.37 ERA) vs. Jose Soriano (9-9, 3.85 ERA)
It is hard to figure what you are going to get out of these pitching matchups
- Javier in his last three starts has gone five innings / two runs, three innings/ 1 run and two innings/ 3 runs in his latest game. Anderson in his last three starts went 4 innings twice and 5 innings once and gave up 2 runs once and 4 runs twice. A wash.
- Arrighetti in his last three starts had two good 2 run starts and one bad 5 run start. Hendricks has not been pitching well in his last 3 starts giving up 4 runs twice and 5 runs once. Advantage Astros.
- Hunter in his last three starts gave up 1 run, 0 runs and then 6 runs (2 earned). Soriano in his last three starts had two scoreless outings sandwiched around one where he gave up 5 runs. Slight advantage Brown??
Mariners (Road) – Guardindians (Home) Matchup
Mariners
- 72-62- Second two games back in AL West
- Last ten games – 4-6
- Road – 31-35
- Home – 41-27
- Offense – 616 runs (5th in AL), .241 BA (9th), .727 OPS (6th), 191 HR (2nd)
- Pitching – 3.97 ERA (9th in AL), 1.26 WHIP (6th), 35 saves (T-6th), 403 walks (6th best)
Guardindians
- 66-66- Third – 10.5 games back in AL Central
- Last ten games – 3-7
- Home – 33-32
- Road – 33-34
- Offense – 508 runs (Last in AL), .224 BA (Last), .661 OPS (Last), 133 HR (14th)
- Pitching – 3.93 ERA (6th in AL), 1.31 WHIP (11th), 38 saves (T-3rd), 461 walks (11th best)
Other than the Mariners being a poor road team, most everything tilts their way. It is tough to see how Cleveland can be such a bad offensive team and very mediocre pitching team and still be sitting at .500.
- The pitchers for the weekend….
- Seattle Cleveland
- George Kirby (8-6, 4.05 ERA) vs. Logan Allen (7-10, 4.35 ERA)
- Logan Gilbert (4-5, 3.69 ERA) vs. Gavin Williams (8-6, 3.36 ERA)
- Bryce Miller (3-5, 5.98 ERA) vs. Tanner Bibee (9-10, 4.73 ERA)
Very similar to the Astro – Angels series, it is tough to figure out which pitchers will show up for each team this weekend. A lot of variability with each pitcher in the recent past.
- Kirby in last three games – gave up 0 runs and 1 run in two starts and 7 runs in the other. Allen gave up 2 runs in one start, 1 run in the next and ….9 runs in his last start.
- Gilbert gave up two runs and 1 run sandwiched around a start giving up 6 runs. Williams has had three fairly short starts – 3 IP/ 4 runs – 5.1 IP/ 0 runs – 3.1 IP/ 3 runs.
- Miller in last 3 games has pitched 5 innings each game and gave up 4 runs twice and 5 once. Bibee in his last 3 starts has started between 5.2 and 6 innings and gave up 2,4 and 5 runs.
This will be an interesting weekend to follow each of these series. Will the Astros stretch that small lead in the division? Lose the lead? Hold the lead?
It is all possible.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
22 responses to “Analyzing the Astros’ weekend”
We have no control over what the Mariners do tonight.
But we do have control over what happens in Houston.
I’m hoping Yainer plays, Urias plays, Chas plays, Melton sits.
That will give us a line up that is all righty, except for our big lefty who can hit anyone.
Reptil has to settle in tonight. He might not get another start if he does not.
The long pen has to get outs tonight. Blubaugh? Lance?
And we really need for the bats to collectively have a solid night.
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Well, the line up is a head scratcher for me. Sanchez does not hit lefties unless he’s going to start hitting them tonight.
I’d much rather see Chas, who has a chance against lefty pitching playing.
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I forgot that Tyler Anderson has always had reverse splits. Lefties this year have a .980 OPS against him. I wish we had six or seven lefties in the game tonight.
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Did not get to watch the game last night, but two for 14 with runners in scoring position and only get two runs is not going to win you many games. Good thing the pitching was good. Otherwise, it would’ve been a bad night for the Home team.
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Good morning to anyone that might be out in Astroland today! I don’t really like having this private blog to myself, but I also know that life is not quite so simple as it used to be for many of us.
Gosh, Reptil delivered with an exclamation point! That Halo group hits a bunch of long balls. Javier was aggressive and showed me a bit of what I remember of him. A six inning no hitter? I look forward to seeing him back in the mound for his next start. He owned it. On another night of the line up flailing and failing to get a base hit when needed, our battered pitching staff saved the day again.
Spencer Arrighetti is the man tonight. He’s given us pretty good starts in two of his last three outings. He needs to pitch like he did against to O’s last week but has to get more swings and misses. Too much contact against these guys is looking for trouble. And he can’t walk guys either. He also needs to fight for his place in the rotation. Lance is now the vulture in waiting. And for goodness sakes, can we make the other guys throw more pitches? Hendricks has walked 9 guys in his last three starts. And our policy of jumping on the first pitch simply sucks. It was painful to watch last night.
In the meantime, the M’s lost a tough one with their two best guys in the pen giving the game back late. That was good stuff!
Dan, I’m hoping to see a video of our anthem from Sugar Land last night. Please post!
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Hey daveb – sorry you feel lonely out there on this holiday weekend.
I don’t have access to a video as yet – if I do and I can figure out how to link to it – I will surely share. Our “choir” was actually members from our multiple choirs at St. Laurence and the ones who could come last night were about 70 strong – the biggest challenge was getting on and off the field in a timely manner.
It was a hot one last night, but we did get a break with a solid overcast – it didn’t help with the heat and humidity, but when you get that direct sun on top of the heat – it is a big problem. I am sure we sounded quite good – our choir director is excellent and had us well prepared for it.
Game-wise – some things of local interest
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Thoughts
One other thing from the Space Cowboys game – they do what is called a Flex cam (zero in on people flexing their muscles) rather than a Kiss Cam. I don’t know if that has always been their deal but it sure seems safer since the Coldplay incident
By winning last night with the M’s losing – the Astros assured themselves of the division lead through the weekend.
It will be of interest to see how the Mariners react to their loss last night. My perception is that Astros bounce back from collapses better than the M’s
Carlos Correa showing how to do anything to get a big run in – including an extremely awkward inside out swing.
If the real Cristian Javier is back – the Astros odds this year have definitely gone up
Kaleb Ort with his second big relief appearance in a row. The Astros continue to get help from unexpected places
Good fielding by the Angels and they might still be tied. The 2B had two tough chances as Yordan hit it right at him but at warp speed. On the Altuve pop up single – I could not believe no OF could get to it – it was up in the air a long time ago- the 2B had to run 100 ft to get close
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if you go to the Astros mlb page and read McTaggarts column on the Astros in September and then reread my September post… is there some kind of plagiarism going on here?
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Astros no strangers to exciting September finishes
vs.
Astros’ 2025: September Song – ALL THINGS ASTROS
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two games in arrow where they can’t score runs. Just can’t keep doing the same thing and expect different results.
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Thoughts
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At this point these guys don’t deserve to make the playoffs. That maybe insensitive but it’s pretty much accurate.
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Hate to say this but right now this team doesn’t even deserve to make the playoffs. They’re an embarrassment to all who support them. Maybe it will change but I’m not optimistic.
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sorry for the double post. Didn’t see it go through.
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Good morning. Thankfully the M’s don’t seem to want the division either. Our Astros are playing some really ugly baseball. Yesterday Lance made an error on a play along the first base line that clearly showed the runner well on the infield grass all the way to the bag. Lance should have hit him in the back with the throw. At the very least, Joe should have been out of the dugout demanding interference. On another play, Pena hit a high bouncer down the third base line. Assuming it was foul, he jogged down towards first. It was fair and he was out. Lance McCullers threw 51 pitches in two innings of relief, giving up three hits, walking two, allowing two runs and essentially ending the ugliness. There is no place to use him at this point.
Carlos Correa is 1 for his last 19. Jacob Melton has hit .149 with a .398 OPS in his two stints with the Astros. Mauricio Dubon is hitting .214 with a .547 OPS in his last 28 days. Cam Smith has hit .142 with a .426 OPS since the All Star break. And yet we keep trotting him out there. Yes, options are limited. But as bad as Chas has been, he’s better than a couple of the present options. And he knows how to play all three outfield positions reliably. Ramon Urias is being under utilized.
All this as it seems our starters are making a real bid at stabilizing the club. Damn shame to see our line up once again pucker up. What else can it be? I’ll say this. Joe Espada has taken this flawed club through all kinds of battles over the past two seasons without enough bullets. But right now, even putting aside the rotten hitting, his guys are playing flat, uninspired baseball. They are missing plays. Joe missed a play yesterday. Maybe Joe is not the motivator this group really needs. But that’s a discussion for the post season.
All that said, the Astros remain in an enviable position. They control their own destiny with just 25 games to play. They are in first place after all.
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Working on the next post…
Thought
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How did JP go from MVP candidate to lame duck status. The rib inj set him back for sure, but to revert back to chasing is unspeakable. One would think he would have figured that out by now. Am not blaming him for the demise of the offense, but he is not the only one swinging at balls. It appears the P staff might stabilize but if the offense does not catch up shame on them. DB will definitely need to make some changes offseason with this coaching staff, especially in hitting and better hitting strategies against opposing P staffs. This theme is ringing loudly from the fandom in comments I’ve read lately. We’ll see.
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Andre – the fans have to wonder – why do we see pitchers coming here and improving, sometimes amazingly so – while we see our hitters struggling mightily. Is it coaching, is it scouting, is it the players? What are the players being told strategy wise and what are they actually doing?
This is a chicken or the egg concept in many ways. Is it a lack of talent on the hitting side? Is it poor coaching? Is it poor application by the hitters? Is it poor strategy?
Maddening.
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Well a much better game. Hopefully that cr@ppy July and August is behind us as we finish the regular season a great September.
Excellent hitting today. AND timely hitting.
Thought Luis G did really well.
one last thought – so often, our Astros pick up a middling or struggling or down in their luck pitcher, they come here, and they are somewhat to noticeably better. Kikuchi is a great recent example. Then they leave, and revert to mediocrity. Only Charlie M seemed to do as well once he left. Not even Cole has been as good as when he was with us … It happens so often it’s not luck. Someone somewhere in the bowels of our staff is doing an absolutely brilliant job.
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Well a much better game. Hopefully that cr@ppy July and August is behind us as we finish the regular season a great September.
Excellent hitting today. AND timely hitting.
Thought Luis G did really well.
one last thought – so often, our Astros pick up a middling or struggling or down in their luck pitcher, they come here, and they are somewhat to noticeably better. Kikuchi is a great recent example. Then they leave, and revert to mediocrity. Only Charlie M seemed to do as well once he left. Not even Cole has been as good as when he was with us … It happens so often it’s not luck. Someone somewhere in the bowels of our staff is doing an absolutely brilliant job.
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Much better. Hope I got the guys PO’d enough to finally start to hit with RISP.
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Simon Davey – yeah you have to wonder what it is that gets these pitchers flying so much higher with us. I feel like it is a combo of good future scouting of the opponent, working on the pitch mix (you should throw less 4 seam fast balls, you should throw that slider 35% of the time, etc.) and probably help with release points and tunneling the pitches so you don’t tip them off.
Z – yes, the Astro hitters called me up and said they were sick of that Zanuda guy picking on them, so they were going to quit goofing off and hit in the clutch. (We wish it was this easy don’t we?)
If the Astros get what they got from Garcia yesterday and Javier and Arrighetti over the weekend they will be in very good shape down the stretch. Combining those three with Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez and if a 6th starter is needed, Jason Alexander could give the Astros a very strong base for a playoff run.
If….they could just get a hitting performance like Monday to occur more often than a blue moon.
Is Altuve the key to their offense? It seems like when he goes into his swoons, the whole offense forgets how to hit with RISP. They were 6 for 15 with RISP yesterday. The 6 was one more than they had put up in the first six games of the home stand when they were 5 for 42 with runners in scoring position. Yuck.
The biggest story of yesterday was Garcia, who had problems in the one inning where he gave up 3 runs, but getting 6 strong out of him was an unexpected gift.
The hitting was nicely spread around with Altuve and Urias launching homers, and Pena, Alvarez, Altuve, Urias and even Cam Smith (be still my heart) with 2 hits apiece. 12 hits, 5 walks and 5!! stolen bases.
Good win and the Mariners were mauled by the Rays.
Now….need to bear down on the Yanks and hope the Rays continue to whack the M’s. The Astros need to hold on dearly to that 3-game lead.
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