Astros’ brain dump

It is time for a Dan P brain dump about the Astros. Most folks might say that is likely a very small dump indeed.

  • This may be the most fascinating “dash” to the finish line in recent Astros’ history. There are 38 games left, the Astros have a miniscule 1 1/2 game lead over the Mariners with the fast-fading Rangers now 7.5 games behind. Can the Astros bring back enough talent and get them rolling in the right direction in time to hold off the almost equally stumbling Mariners? My spidey sense says the Boys will somehow figure this out and win another AL West title.
  • Yordan Alvarez is headed to AA rehab, which hopefully will be a short stint and then a return to a lineup that needs some consistent hitting at a high level. Will he morph into the Yordan we have been enjoying since his debut in 2019 or will he be the under-performing and likely injured version that started the season? I think he will be back within a week of the start of his rehab and will take two-to-three weeks to get back into form.
  • The Astros are attempting to assimilate the recently returned Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier into their rotation (bad luck on Javier getting sick – like Jeremy Pena recently did). And there is a high chance that Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. will be ready soon with J.P. France not far behind. Not sure about Brandon Walter. Jeez, where will they put them all? Who will go to the rotation? Who will go to the bullpen? My brain tells me – Garcia will for sure go to the rotation (for now), France will likely go to the bullpen and Lance will be given another chance at the rotation but may end up in the bullpen or who knows what. Walter might give them a long lefty reliever out of the bullpen.
  • Since July 19 the Astros are 13-13. The winners of those 13 games?
  • 2 – Bennett Sousa
  • 2 – Jason Alexander
  • 1 – Kaleb Ort
  • 1- Ryan Gusto (right before the trade)
  • 1 – Colton Gordon
  • 1 – A.J. Blubaugh
  • 1 – Enyel de los Santos
  • 1 – Josh Hader (right before the injury)
  • 1 – Cristian Javier
  • 1 – Framber Valdez
  • 1- Hunter Brown

That is not only spreading the wealth around, but a sign of how important these             flashes from out of nowhere are to this team. It is the contributions of players such as Jason Alexander that have kept this team afloat through an extremely challenging season.

  • While pitching has been a concern for the Astros due to injuries, the offense has been just as culpable in their recent losses. When they lost five in a row in late July to the Athletics and the Nats – they scored eight runs in five games. You could say, well, that was before they picked up help at the trade deadline. But in August they were immediately swept by the Red Sox (five runs in three games) and in their last three losses they scored one run total. Yes, their pitching cratered in those three losses, but still – the offense continues to be problematic.
  • The biggest concern with the pitching is how deep starters will go, especially the returning starters. How it looks….
    • Framber Valdez – even though he has had three off-outings in a row, he has still completed between 5.2 and 6.2 innings in those starts.
    • Hunter Brown – Although he has had four low run outings in a row, two of those (5 and 5.1 innings) were shorter than we’d like to see.
    • Jason Alexander – He’s put up three very good 6 inning outings in a row – exactly what they need.
    • Spencer Arrighetti – Since his return, he had a very poor 3.2 inning outing followed by a very good 5 inning outing. Hoping that he can stretch it out even more as he finds his sea legs.
    • Cristian Javier – He had about as solid a 5 inning return from the IL as you could ask. He was doing ok in his second outing (thanks to a Jesus Sanchez nab of an absolute Grand Slam) but came out as ill after 3 innings.
    • Beyond that – what can they expect when Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers return. Lance always struggles with length and Garcia will be pitching in the bigs for the first time in a long time.
    • This is especially critical with a bullpen that is missing Josh Hader and is trying to get Shawn Dubin to return to his pre-IL performance.

Those are things from my brain dump today. What do you have rattling around your noggin?

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31 responses to “Astros’ brain dump”

  1. I just reviewed the MLB top ten plays of the week on their website. Let’s see, the Astros’ right fielder in yesterday’s game, Sanchez, robs two homeruns in the same game and his play is ranked… no where!

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  2. They went 12-13 in July. The runs surrendered in the 13 losses – 7,7,10,4,7,5,6,7,5,15,5,7,2. What is that, 2 winnable games that we lost? Maybe 4 if you think those 5 runs games someone just needs to go get it.

    We got spoiled by that first half. Hunter and Framber were lights out. Colton Gordon came out of the woodwork. Now J. Alexander is having a coming out party but Hunter is shakier, and Framber looks like he is back in his own head. Colton Gordon is back in the minors after a terrible month. By the way, someone should award Framber with an iron skillet glove award at the end of this year. He has never been a good defensive pitcher but he is detrimentally bad at this point.

    I feel like their focus should have been a pitcher. At the same time, hardly any pitchers moved. There was a reason. What the Padres wanted for Dylan Cease is lunacy for a guy that at the time was 3-10 with an almost 5 ERA that you get for 3 months. The Diamondbacks probably felt the same about Gallen. As bad as Alcantara has been the Marlins obviously were fine overpricing him and moving forward with him. It is what it is. A naive fan such as myself might have assumed Arrighetti and Javier and Garcia could be “the trade deadline” acquisitions, but there’s some rough spots so far. Javy hasn’t been bad, but I haven’t really seen vintage Javy, and I don’t know that we will until 2026. Arrighetti had a much shorter lay off but I don’t want to have a revisionist history about this, the strike zone has never been his best friend anyway. And Garcia is throwing 93 in the minors, like McCullers I don’t know the rest of it plays without that 97 he once hit.

    All that doom and gloom just means one thing – I can’t expect this offense to pick up some of those 7 run games, but those 5 run and 6 run games? Grabbing one or two more of those wouldn’t hurt. The entire month of July, 1 win in a game they gave up 5 runs in (6-5 over Colorado on July 1st, nothing the rest of the month). Sanchez, Urias and Correa were brought here to be the agents of change for that statistic. So far, not so good. Again, so far, 1 win in August when we give up 5 or more.

    As usual I will just repeat, your record is what your starting pitching says it is. The bullpen matters too though they can tend to hang on to better leads if the starters and the offense work to hand them something other than a 1 run lead then ask for perfection.

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    • I was happy to get Jesus, but I did not think Gusto would be involved. I think he’ll be a reliable back of the rotation guy at some point.

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  3. If the Astros were to play .500 over the remaining (38 game) schedule they would end up at 88-74. I don’t think SEA is going to roll over and just give it to them, but if I’m Espada right now I’m preaching patience and taking it one game at a time. It’s time for Altuve, Correa, and Walker to earn their money though. Give the pitching staff some room to work more than once out of three games.

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    • Hmm, interesting way to look at it… In that light, a 90-win season isn’t asking too much, especially given the track this team has taken in ’25.

      If they could get something out of Yordan, Arrighetti and Javier down the stretch and figure out a bullpen, there could be some magic left.

      But also consider this. It’s also not a done deal that the AL West runnerup makes the playoffs, and the Astros could still — possibly — end up with a first-round bye, which would be remarkable considering everything that’s gone down thus far.

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  4. Dan, the entire season has been a long fascinating grind, unprecedented in my memory. Do we have a dash in us? Can I wait until next Sunday evening before committing to what I think is going to happen with our Astros?

    Framber has a 1.636 WHIP and a .383 OBP against in August. 6 walks and just 10 K’s. He’s got to correct now.

    If Hunter keeps doing what he’s doing, it will be enough. His other two recent starts were 7.0 and 6.2 innings.

    Yordan has to have a positive impact. A couple of bats need to go off, Altuve, Correa, Walker and Diaz come to mind.

    The rehabbers need to do more good than bad.

    Jesus and Cam need to break slumps.

    The pen needs to stabilize with help from the rehabbers.

    That’s a lot of stuff that has to happen. Is it too much?

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  6. I might not need to wait until Sunday to make a decision on this season for the Astros. If they can’t stabilize the pitching staff, this stuff will keep happening. And if the bats can’t wake up, then the mediocre and flat out bad arms throwing against them will continue to have the time of their lives.

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    • If my “goes into its” is correct, since July 7th, they have won 14 against 21 losses. That plays out to .400 baseball. Shocking considering they were 20 games over just at that starting point.

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    • Another embarrassing loss. Bad Pitching, no hitting (5 for 31, 2 walks, 11K’s). I lost count of how many pitches that were out of the K zone were swung at and missed. At least Seattle lost tonight for whatever that helps. Arrighetti in spring training and Taylor Scott showing why he was released. No silver lining in those clouds unless it’s a lighting strike.

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      • Good morning everyone!

        On the bright side of things, we’re still in first place by a game and a half. Seattle refuses to take over first and run with it. They’ve obviously got their own problems.

        There are only 5 major league teams that have a better record than the Astros. That’s hard to fathom. Must be a whole lot of discouraged baseball fans in America.

        What an ugly dance it is trying to save the two or three reliable guys in the pen for a game that might result in a win. At the same time, the Astros have to find guys that can collectively throw 8 innings daily. When the starter gets crushed, well, he’s crushed the pen too. They’re getting a break on the road by not having to pitch the 9th. I don’t find any satisfaction in watching Chas throw. Many clubs resort to using a position player on the mound regularly. I don’t like it, however necessary it is right now.

        We just don’t have enough capable pitchers. Dana Brown badly misjudged his situation.

        Even if our guys were hitting, getting whacked by double digits pretty much makes that a moot point. However, we’ve got a few veterans that simply have to shake the team wide slump and step up today. Can they really hit against the best pitchers in the game? Today would be a good day to prove that point.

        Dan, I don’t think a dash is going to happen with this group. But maybe a slog is doable. Can we slog our way home and win the division?

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  7. It is difficult to scream loudly against a team who’s P staff is trying to work it’s way back to relevance with three of it’s better hitters still on the mend, one who might not return (Parades). After awhile you run out of excuse’s. Three shutouts in a four day span is a bitter pill for any fan to swallow (unless you’re the Pirates). At season’s end give DB free rein to construct a staff and roster designed to win, Crane. It’s what you hired him for.

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    • Gary, I hope DB has that luxury, but I suspect the contracts on the books will prevent it. We really need to hope a few players, like Cam Smith, can take a leap next year and that the 2025 draft class pans out better than we’ve seen in some time. As others have said it may be time to replace the medical staff as well. Also, if there are any rumors about the Astros acquiring Arenado this winter I’m going to puke.

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  9. More good news

    LHP Brandon Walter
    Injury: Left elbow inflammation
    IL date: July 25 (15-day IL)
    Expected return: TBD
    Status: Had a recurrance of his inflammation working out in West Palm Beach and has been shut down. (updated Aug. 18) More >>

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  10. Thoughts

    • I shut her off last night – watching this type of baseball is hard to swallow – so watched some other stuff with the family
    • This reminds me of a Bugs Bunny cartoon I watched lately (we regularly DVR the Loony Tunes show on Saturdays – I think the Cartoon Network). Bugs and the villain (can’t remember who it is) end up falling out of a plane without their parachutes. They are both screaming all the way down and of course Bugs figures out a way to not hit the ground in a crash. This feels like the Astros and the M’s right now. I hope the Astros are Bugs.
    • It does feel weird to be down 5-0 in the fifth inning and say – there is no way this team is coming back. They used to make a game of it even when they got down early.
    • Well, Neris and Scott have so far proven you can’t go home again. So, who is next? Whitley? Montero?
    • I felt like if the Astros had gotten out and scored a couple in the first inning this might have been a different game, but they didn’t. (Yeah, I know you are saying it would have ended 10-2 instead).
    • So, the Astros are supposed to climb out of their hitting slump against Skubal? Sounds like Hunter Brown will lose 1-0 again.
    • Big day today – Yordan hits in a game down in Corpus. Big fella we need you and by that I mean we need the “you” we used to see so often.
    • Man – three shutouts in four days does not make me confident going forward – but who knows – baseball is the streakiest and most unpredictable of the major sports.

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    • Which just goes to show you, “you never know what the future holds”. Hate to see KT in such a slump but as we know, we have our own issues to contend with.

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    • 2025 seems to be the season of the slump. Boy, if Tucker does not recover in the next 6 weeks, he’s going to lose himself a whole lot of money.

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  13. The play at the plate… what are the guys in NYC watching???? Another blown call at the plate against the Astros. Culture of “pound ’em while they’re down” continues.

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  14. Gotta feel bad for KT. Watching him fall apart at the plate since the ASB has been brutal. That vaulted Cubs offense has struggled to find its way back much like our own. And they have everyone healthy.

    A native Chicagoan who follow the Cubs behind the Stros, I would have loved to seen a Astro/Cubs WS this year. With one limping its way to the finish line and the other imploding offensively, my hopes are slowly diminishing. I’ll keep that hope alive though.

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  15. Good morning. Today would be a good day for Framber to come out of his funk and throw one of his 94 pitch complete games, with maybe a run sprinkled in by our deadline offense.

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  16. great pitching last night until it wasn’t. Walking in a run, pathetic! Of course we should have scored on that play at the plate. I’m a firm believer that sports betting will ruin all sports except maybe golf. Not saying it happened here but we got one taken from us last night.

    m

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  17. Sounds like I’m in the minority. On that play at the plate, I think the home plate ump was essentially blocked from being able to make the correct call. The catcher was between him and the play.

    Unfortunately, it was a very close play that and New York was not about to overturn it.

    Baseball is so tough, especially in the middle of a team wide slump. Had Walkers 417 foot fly ball gone 420, we might have won a ballgame.

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  18. Thoughts

    • I missed most of last night’s game at choir practice. daveb I am half with you – I don’t blame the home plate ump – it is hard to get positioned where you can see and don’t get rolled up in the play. I do blame New York – I reran the play off the Gamecast and I thought it was pretty obvious he touched the plate between the catcher’s hands before the tag made it to him. New York did not choose to not override it – they confirmed it – and I don’t see how they did that. How do you say it was an absolute? I can see saying we don’t have enough info the play stands – but they said it was confirmed. What’s the point in having replay if it makes things worse?
    • Well, I predicted Hunter would lose 1-0 – at least someone else lost the game.
    • I understand that they wanted to walk someone to set up the double play in extra innings – but you have a pitcher, Ort, who has poor control – 20 walks in 38 innings coming in- don’t add to his troubles.
    • And we get to try and break out of this with Charlie Morton on the mound. This sounds like a setup for disaster.
    • Last night was just a feeble effort and we still could have won with Walker’s HR stolen and Diaz’s score stolen. Hunter deserves better than this. The whole staff does.
    • And the only people feeling worse than Astro fans has to be M fans, who must be going “Please, take the division lead – the Astros are giving it to you.”

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    • I’m probably in the minority thinking Diaz should have just ran faster. If he’s lost that much speed over the last few years it doesn’t bode well for the future.

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      • His sprint speed is 43rd percentile. It was 44 last year. That’s not bad for a catcher who spends so much time squatting. Yanier hustles. Monday night he beat out an infield hit in the 9th, down 10 zip. A lot of guys would not have busted it down to first in that situation.

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