Astros’ Reset Button: Is it rock bottom?

63 games to go. What’s next for the Astros?

If you’re still riding the high from Sunday’s 11–3 win in Seattle, good for you. Hang on tight. Because right now, the 2025 Astros are sitting at a crossroads. I’m generally an optimist, but it’s unclear to me whether Houston is headed toward October glory or a long-overdue crash.

It’s a weird time to be a fan of this franchise. The banners say dynasty, but the product on the field says duct tape, rubber bands, and prayers. One week, they’re putting together gritty, comeback wins. The next, they look like they’ve forgotten how to field a bunt, run the bases, or manage a pitch count. So as we kick off the final 63 games, it’s fair to ask:

Is this the reset we’ve all been waiting for… or the rock bottom we’ve been fearing?

Let’s dig into it.

Trade Deadline: Arms Race, No Bats

We’ve beat this horse to death, but ESPN on Monday listed nine pitchers as trade fits for Houston. Nine. Not one bat.

They include names like Sandy Alcantara, Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic, Zac Gallen, and Merrill Kelly, among others.

That perhaps tells you everything about where this front office sees the cracks (or at least that’s what the so-called media experts are hearing). The bullpen is struggling. The rotation is cobbled together. The offense? Apparently, they think it’s good enough, but there are more replacements than regulars in the lineup at this point.

Will Dana Brown pull the trigger? Will Jim Crane let him? Which leads us to…

Dana Brown: On the Clock… Or in a Box?

We’ve beat this horse a bit, but let’s be honest: “On the clock” makes it sound like Dana is holding the hammer. But from the outside, is he just a man managing expectations, budgets, and bruises? Yes, he moved Kyle Tucker, but that was a different kind of trade than he’ll need to make now. He needs to acquire a Tucker-like player.

Since arriving, he’s talked about sustaining success and restocking the farm. But he doesn’t look like a buyer at any cost. So unless Crane greenlights something wild, I fear we can only expect low-sizzle moves. Maybe a rental reliever. Maybe an arm with team control. I’m not sure we should expect a Verlander- or Greinke-type blockbuster.

Reset or Collapse?

The Astros have been kicking the can down the road for a while now. I’ve mentioned my Saints comparisons and analogies before.

They’ve patched the bullpen, borrowed depth, and hoped the core would stay healthy. That strategy only works so long before the floor gives out. And this season? The floor appears to be coming apart in several places.

If Cristian Javier or Spencer Arrighetti don’t make it back, if McCullers keeps laboring, if Isaac Paredes is out for a while… If, if, if… Are there too many holes in the dam? What are we watching?

A reset?
Or the slow unraveling of a championship era?

Best Case / Worst Case: What’s Really on the Line?

Best case? The stars get healthy, the young arms settle in, and the Astros ride a familiar second-half wave all the way to the postseason. A sneaky division-winning team no one wants to face. Yes, even another trip to the World Series.

Worst case? Disaster. Javier, Arrighetti, Yordan Alvarez, Jake Meyers, and others never return. The injuries pile up. Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez break down from carrying the load. The Astros finish third (or fourth) in the West, miss the playoffs—and for the first time in nearly a decade, irrelevance creeps in.

That’s the tightrope they’re walking right now.

One Foot In, One Foot Out: The Fanbase Dilemma

Astros fans are in a weird spot.

We’ve been spoiled. We’ve watched our team play deep into October for seven straight years. But now? There’s a tension between faith in the core and frustration with the front office.

Some fans want big swings. Others say stay the course and wait for the cavalry to return. Everyone feels it slipping.

The question is: Does the front office feel the same way?

What If They Catch Fire?

Here’s the dangerous thing.

If Houston goes 7–3 or 8–2 over the next stretch, the pressure to buy big could fade. Ownership and management could convince itself that another deep run is coming. That the team just needed to “get healthy.”

It’s happened before. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it costs you later.

The next two weeks could shape the next two years.

Chipalatta’s Take: What Should They Do?

Here’s the deal.

Don’t overpay.
Don’t panic.
But don’t assume everything will magically fix itself.

This team needs help. If you can find an arm with control? Go for it. If a contending team wants to take a look at a reliever or one of our cushion/bridge guys (there are plenty to choose from on the field and on the mound), consider it, if it helps you this year or next.

It’s time to consider the futures of Javier, Framber, Lance McCullers Jr., Hector Neris, and even Jose Altuve. Let’s be clear: I’m not suggesting trading Framber or Altuve, but Framber can walk in a few months, and management has still not addressed Altuve’s decline.

For the record, Javier will get $21.4 million next season, Yordan jumps to $26.83 million, and McCullers checks in on the last year of his five-year deal at $17 million.

Just don’t stay frozen for the next two weeks—either in fear or nostalgia.

Final Thought

Rock bottom is a funny thing. Sometimes you hit it with a thud. Other times, you bounce.

For the Astros, these next few weeks will tell us everything: Is this a dynasty catching its breath, or a dynasty running out of gas?

Strap in, Astros’ fans. The countdown has started.

63 games to go.
What’s next?

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37 responses to “Astros’ Reset Button: Is it rock bottom?”

  1. I’d like to think Crane’s desire to stay under the cap this year is knowing with the increases for Alvarez and Javier that he’ll be going over it next year. Six players – Altuve, Alvarez, Javier, Walker, Hader, and LMJ are on the books for $137M next year. Abreu is going into year 3 of arb. Paredes has 2 arb years remaining if I’m reading it right. Brown and Diaz enter their first. Varatini will either walk or get a pay raise from his $6M salary to entice him to stay. There’s a lot of roster to fill out. To keep the team competitive through FA will be expensive.

    I’m not advocating a stand-pat strategy this deadline, but I’m not sure there is room for a real deal without guys like Chas going out. The impending return of Alvarez almost replaces one of those big deadline swings.

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  2. Thanks for the post, Chip. A lot to chew on…

    • Arms race – No bats – This probably makes the most sense as the position players seem to be the kind that they should be more likely to recover from (please ignore the Kyle Tucker debacle – oh and Yordan’s late found break, etc.). The pitching recoveries would seem to be much less certain. The pitchers may come back, but like Lance they may not be the #3 starter they are needing
    • Dana Brown – I would think most fans are not going to hold anything he decides to do or not to do against him. He is in an almost impossible spot if…. Crane is going to hold him to staying under the tax line.
    • Reset or collapse? It may be my Pollyanna coming out – but I have been heartened by this season. They have gotten some solid performances out of unexpected spots and if….if… they can get healthy for 2026, I don’t see them having to start over.
    • Best Case/ Worst Case – You know me, any team that makes it into the playoffs has a shot – so to me the worst case is finishing out of the playoffs and best case is making it in after this crazy season, no matter how they do.
    • The Fan Dilemma – No dilemma here. I’ve seen a wonderful era that my father never got to see. I am behind this team to the bitter end and they don’t have to prove anything to me.
    • What if they catch fire? I hope they have better leadership than to base the future of the franchise on 10 days of baseball – up or down.
    • What should they do? I probably will cover that in a future post….

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  3. It comes down to trade prices (which will undoubtedly be high), and the Astros do not have much to give. If they can find a good deal for a pitcher and/or a LH bat, go for it. I am not, however, optimistic that they will find such a deal. I worry they will go all-in for a bat like Cedric Mullins, which I think only makes them marginally better at best.

    Their best course of action is to hope they get multiple reinforcements back from injury, which is an admittedly scary proposition with the seeming blunders our medical staff has made in recent history.

    If all of our players are healthy (the ones that aren’t out for the year), we have a good chance in the playoffs with the run prevention and ability to eke out a few runs model that the team has been utilizing this year.

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    • Hey Joe (kudos to Jimi Hendrix) – I think this is a first post for you. Welcome sir. Very glad to hear from you. I agree that they should not go all in (unless they can get Justin Verlander 2.0 for the end of this season plus two more).

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  4. So maybe 4 games up was “rock bottom” as the Astros gained a game on the Mariners yesterday.

    Thoughts

    • Maybe what the Astros need the most at the trade deadline is another leverage arm? It just looks like King, Abreu and Hader are a bit worn out – already. That is not good news if true (or maybe the rest over the All Star break made them rusty?)
    • Brice Matthews with the plays of the game – the 3 run bomb in the 2nd inning to flip the lead and the 2 run uber bomb in the 7th to extend the lead. One thing you have to love about the youngsters first two homers of his career – one was on a fastball up – the other on a cutter down. Were they meatball pitches – well kind of – but he didn’t miss them.
    • It seemed like for both teams they were teeing off with long drives or very hard drives every other batter. They were not missing much last night.
    • Walker with another 2 hits and an RBIs.
    • Chas had two hits, one of them a perfect bunt down the third base line that set the table for Matthews second HR. He also had one of his patented diving catches on a line drive in front of him. Good to have him back and producing.
    • I have not been paying too much attention to the National League. D’Back Eugenio Suarez with already 36 HRs and 86 RBIs – really? That is the same amount of homers and 4 more RBIs than Aaron Judge – not that you would ever hear of it.
    • Colton Gordon navigated a lot of trouble to get thru 5.2 innings with only 2 ERs given up

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  5. Another win, another hero. Brice twice! This stuff can’t keep happening, right? 100 games played and a 5 game lead in the division. Easy.

    I have no clue what will happen at the trade deadline, but my guess is that Jim Crane would be willing to pay up for the right headline maker. That’s only half of the equation though. Who are we willing to give up? And would it make enough of a difference? Questions I sure can’t answer. Sure, give me Seth Lugo. But for Alimber Santa and Ulloa? I especially like Alimber. In fact, he might show up in Houston before long. Would Jacob Melton get us Jesus Sanchez? And how do we replace Hector Neris with a righty that can really help? Alimber?

    On the flip side, all those quotes from Yordan that Chandler Rome got yesterday made any return this year quite uncertain. I’m guessing Alvarez will try it at some point, but we’re not going to get our big bat at 100% in 2025. And Josh Hader is another guy that looked gassed last night. He was throwing 94, but not reaching 96, 97, and also having a hard time putting the ball where he wanted it. We might not see him for a few days. And Paredes and Jake? Two big question marks.

    Then again, I think Arrighetti, Javier and Garcia will all help at one point. I just don’t think this club has a collapse in them. Sure, they will dip. They might even lose the division lead at some point. But I also see a September push with a patched together roster of familiar faces and a couple of visitors. Chip, I do not see Dana Brown acquiring a Kyle Tucker type player, however. But I sure would take an Eugenio Suarez for the stretch run though. Thing is, we might end up with Shay Whitcomb at third as much as it seems to scare Joe to death.

    This fan is not spoiled. I’m past that. I keep marveling at what these guys are doing a la Brice Matthews last night. Who is going to hit the lefty tonight? I think a couple of guys will. I’m watching more late games than I have in years. I appreciate this club. Sure, Altuve is diminishing. It’ll get worse too. But tonight might be a big night for Jose. And then we’ll be at 61 games and counting.

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    • In some ways nothing will ever touch the greatness of those peak years with the Astros 2017-2019 and 2022. But I have to say I am enjoying this team’s effort and results as much as any team in this era. Nothing is totally tripping them up. They are powering through all problems.

      This will be not only a fascinating 10 days to the trade deadline but also a fascinating 70 or so days to the end of the season.

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  6. I said it before, but there could be a great story brewing here. I have to keep reminding myself that this roster is made up of a bunch of no-names, journeymen and wannabes.

    And then, if Matthews can make it stick, he’ll be yet another feather in Dana Brown’s hat (drafted in ’23).

    What a nucleus that would be — Paredes, Smith, Matthews, Pena — for Altuve to grow old around.

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  7. One thing I would start with is the idea that this current Astros bunch is playing better as a team than they should be as individuals. I look at both the rotation and the lineup each night and say ” No way”!

    Comments:

    An average player who is a rental and doesn’t put you over the luxury tax limit is probably going to be better than an injured Astros player or a AA player.

    Trammell from the left side of the plate reminds me of Brice Matthews from the right side of the plate. Limited hit tool, power when they make contact, decent fielders but lots and lots of K’s.

    The Astros miss Meyers and Paredes for their performance this year on defense and for their experience. Didn’t think I would be saying that.

    Getting healthy Yordan back by Sept 1st, would be better than him coming back in August not 100%.

    LMJ needs to be better! If he is going to walk a lot of guys and give up a bunch of runs in four innings and throw 90 pitches. then a Ullola, who walks a lot of guys and might not give up a lot of runs might be a better option. Ullola gave up no hits the other night and walked 6 but didn’t give up a run. He’s kind of like Hunter Brown was before he was brought up.

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    • OP – I have hopes for Matthews – his numbers at AAA were very similar to Pena’s at a similar age at AAA. A few more K’s but a lot more walks.

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  8. Maybe I missed it, but any thoughts on the return of Jon Singleton? Weird time to have him up since he only plays first base and Mr. Walker is finally hitting. Maybe just as a lefty off the pitch to draw a walk??

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    • In my head I felt like the only way out of this Lance conundrum was a trip to the IL.
      The Injured List is the longest I can ever remember in 60 years of being a Houston fan.

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  11. Regarding Lance, he was able to throw that curve often in the past. Now, I have yet to see him throw one. Granted, I don’t see every pitch that he throws but can anyone say that they have seen him throw one since he has returned?? His other pitches have quite the movement but he seems to not know where they are going to be when they approach the plate.

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    • Hi Sarge,

      Slider 33%

      Sinker 21%

      Change 20%

      Curve 15%

      Fastball 6%

      Cutter 5%

      Problem is, like you’ve said, he can’t control where anything is going and hitters sure are not worried about an occasional 91.9 MPH fastball.

      15 days seems to be a long stint on the IR for a blister. Maybe this is the only way to get him out of the rotation. It’s a tough situation. He wants to be a starter but is not good enough.

      So far, his arm is far less effective than it was 900 plus days ago.

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      • Hi back Dave.

        The Mrs. and I were discussing Lance’s IR predicament and I came up with the possible ( probable?) conversation that went on between Lance and Dana Brown after his last start.

        DB: Lance, you just don’t have it anymore for a starter’s spot. We need to find another place for you in a pitching role.

        LM: No, I want to start only.

        DB: No Lance, You will go to a reliver role.

        LM: I don’t wanna do that. I refuse to.

        DB: Okay then, we owe you a lot of money still so, we’ll do this. You are going to come up with an injury and you will go on to the IL until you can gain control of your pitches.

        LM: Okay, thanks. What is my injury going to be?

        DB: A blister on your index finger to your pitching hand. It has been bothering you for awhile.

        LM: Okay, thank you Mr. Brown.

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      • Hey Sarge, I’d like to come have dinner with you and The Mrs. I have a few non-Astros’-related dilemmas that I need some insight on. Maybe you and The Mrs. can see things I don’t.

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  12. Another special win last night. Actually with this line up, they’re all heaven sent. Need a win for Framber after a gritty 7 innings? A two run shot in the 8th by Brice of course. Bases loaded in the 9th with no outs? No problem. I think we left a bunch of guys on base last night, but we scored a couple more runs than the other guys and their high powered offense. All good.

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  13. Thoughts

    • I’m glad this is the last late night for a while – I usually don’t stay up for these later games, but I was sucked in by Framber toughing it out and the team coming from behind again.
    • Brice with an extremely clutch home run. And then…. made a great stab in the 9th to start the game ending double play
    • Altuve got a finger on the plate just before the tag to give the Astros a 3-1 lead.
    • Funny that the D’Backs protested Diaz’s tag out at the plate in the 7th – Diaz did a masterful job of giving the D’Back the whole plate to aim for before the throw got to him and then closed out the tag.
    • When Bryan King loaded the bases with no out in the 9th, I texted my brother “King ain’t no Hader” A few minutes later I texted “Or maybe he is” as he got a strikeout followed by the game ending double play.
    • Matthews finally gets back to the Mendoza line (.200 BA) but that .954 OPS is impressive after 3 home runs in 2 games
    • Walker continuing drift up to .235 BA after another 2 hit game.
    • Abreu was nails in the 8th

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  14. All the so-called media experts are baffled at the Astros. One has called it “ridiculous” they are winning with these lineups.

    What’s next for Matthews after another HR (3 in 2 days)? Hitting cleanup? Sure, why not, right? I mean Cam Smith has hit in every single lineup spot and now Espada has planted him in the leadoff spot with Pena and Paredes gone.

    Curious about your thoughts. With Yordan, Paredes, Arrighetti and Pena healthy all season, would the Astros have been in a better situation than they are now?

    It’s a crazy year. The Cubs and Brewers have the best record in baseball today and the Dodgers and Yankees look human. And the Astros continue to win with paper clips, rubber bands and duct tape!

    Indeed, ridiculous!

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    • Chip, I always felt like certain franchises managed to win even with unexpected players in the lineup…like the hated Cardinals. As our friend Steven is likely to point out, anytime the pitching keeps you in games you have a good chance to win. At the end of the year I look at a lot of teams with ridiculous offensive numbers like the Yankees and Dodgers and will see a lot of games where they put up 10+ runs and the opponents only scored 2. I’ve always felt anytime you win by more than a grand slam you should ignore the extra runs when predicting future success as they didn’t really factor into the game once the other team likely folded. I really like the fight in this Astros team. We worried that Bregman leaving might create a leadership void, but right now that doesn’t seem to be the case.

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    • And, as of this moment (7/23/2025, 1:31PM CDT) the Astros are ONE HALF game out from having the best record in the American League and ONE game out from having the BEST record in the entire Major League!

      All after the disaster of a recent stretch where they lost 6 out of seven.

      Hooray!!

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      • UPDATE: The Astros are leading the American League by one one-thousandth of a point at this moment.

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  16. Another head scratcher of a lineup

    Trammell CF

    Caratini 1B

    Walker DH

    Diaz C

    Matthews 2B

    Dubon SS

    Hummel LF

    McCormick RF

    Whitcomb 3B

    I hope this doesn’t mean there is anything wrong with Cam – maybe just want to give him a game to watch?

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    • Dan, given the history of this year, maybe they’ll have Cam coming out of the pen! (pun intended!).

      Upon further review, CBS Sports says he’s just getting “a breather” today, after starting 36 straight games.

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      • In the 12 games since Cam topped out at .292 BA – he is slashing .135 BA/ .211 OBP/ .386 OBP with 2 runs scored, 0 HRs and 3 RBIs in 57 ABs. So, yes he may need a breather of a game or so.

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    • Dan, they’ve really leaned on Cam like he was a veteran. So many transitions for him, from 3B to RF, the bottom of the lineup to the middle, then inching up to lead off hitter. A lot of responsibility for a kid who barely played AA and never played AAA.

      He should have been able to learn his new role and adjust to the majors in the bottom third of the order for a while, but he’s hit in all nine positions while filling in for people who have already adjusted (Paredes, Pena et al).

      We often talk about a catcher taking the day game after night game off. It makes sense that he would take the day game off before a Thursday night game at home…essentially giving him a 48-hour break.

      He’s going to be a good one…hopefully he doesn’t get ruined in the process of the 2025 Miracle Story.

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  18. Watching the last four games I’m amazed at the resilience of these guys. The starting pitching keeps them in the game for the first 5 – 6 innings and then the offense does enough to get the runs needed to win. These young guys and the add-ons are really playing their hearts out. Just when you think we’re about to lose they come through with the “W”. And it seems these a new contributor each time. I’d hate to see any of these players traded because I think we can hold our own. It’s been a lot of fun watching these games. Keep it going guys.

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  19. That was a pretty astute move by Dana Brown, getting Walter signed to a minor league contract last August after the Red Sox had decided to release him. I’m sure they’re a bit chagrined with that decision now. Makes me think about Jose Urquidy. I think he’ll be back too, and the Tiger’s minimal investment will pay off.

    Walter is now at 100 innings on the season between Sugar Land and the Astros. This coming off 2024 when he did not pitch due to the rotator cuff fix. So we really need some reinforcements. Walter has become too valuable to keep trotting out there as a starter for much longer. Good chance we’re going to need him in October.

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  20. First look at the Astros draft tracker this morning shows that the Astros first round pick, Neyens, has signed at his exact slot value of $4.12 million.

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  21. Now the Astros announced the signing of 18 of their 19 daft choices. They have no more money left in their pool, which means their 19th round pick moves on to college. The Astros also signed 7 non-drafted HS and college eligible free agents!

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