2025: The Astros’ most challenging trade deadline

This probably should be titled the most challenging trade deadline of the Astros Renaissance Era (2015-2025). That does not mean it is the most critical or the most important trade deadline, especially when we look back at 2017 and the waiver deadline trade for Justin Verlander or 2019 and the regular deadline trade for Zack Greinke.

In general, during this golden age of Astros baseball, the team has entered the trade period before the deadline with fairly clear needs and have done a solid job of fulfilling those needs.

That included of course the Verlander (2017) and Greinke (2019) trades, but also included:

  • 2018 – Getting Roberto Osuna to bolster the bullpen and hack off may fans, who did not want him after his domestic abuse problems
  • 2021 – The Astros needed bullpen help and picked up Phil Maton, Yimi Garcia, Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero. Oh, and a young catcher named Yainer Diaz was tossed into the Maton deal.
  • 2022 – The Astros needed additional depth on the offensive side and a lefty reliever. They pick up Christian Vazquez, Trey Mancini and Will Smith who assisted the championship run to varying degrees.
  • 2023 – Needing a little pitching help, the Astros re-trade for Verlander and Graveman.
  • 2024 – Intending to bolster their starting pitching the Astros traded for Yusei Kikuchi and then pick up reliever Caleb Ferguson from the Yankees. Obviously, the big one here is the trade for Kikuchi.

Things were a bit clearer in each of these cases as to the Astros’ needs heading down the stretch of the season.

That is not the case in 2025. What makes things so challenging are the following:

  • The quantity of critical players on the IL right now, including SPs Ronel Blanco (out for the season), Hayden Wesneski (out for the season), Spencer Arrighetti (working his way back slowly), RP Shawn Dubin (who knows when), SS Jeremy Pena (maybe back soon), OF Chas McCormick (probably back soon),CF Jake Meyers (not any time soon), 2B Brendan Rodgers (who cares) and  Yordan Alvarez (???). This does not even include bench players like Zach Dezenzo, Luis Guillorme and Jacob Melton who are also on the IL.
  • The number of previously injured prime time pitchers, who may or may not return in time to help – Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and J.P. France.
  • The reputation of the medical staff…..maybe the club is confident in them, but the question would have to be WHY? Not one player has come back when they said they would return. A number of them, including Pena, and Alvarez (and from last year – Kyle Tucker) had underlying breaks that were not diagnosed until “further” testing was performed, sometimes long after the original imaging was done. The rehabs of Lance McCullers Jr., and Luis Garcia all hit giant stops and restarts that kept them out long after the normal expected recovery time. How much can the front office trust what they are being told?

The front office information gathering and decision making is critical and they are the ones most challenged by this deadline. 

What are their choices?

“Na-Na-Na-Na – the injured don’t exist”

Picture Dana Brown putting his hands over his ears and chanting Na-Na-Na-Na while his assistant GMs try to tell him how the injured are doing. He then makes moves like the injured players don’t exist and if they did exist they are headed home instead of returning to the majors.

He goes and trades for a top end starter and “hey why not” a back of the rotation innings eater. He grabs a middle leverage reliever and pulls in two left-handed power bats.

Then after adding $70 million to the payroll he begins looking for another job on-line.

Polyanna is the new Notradamus

“Mr. Brown, the word is that all of them are coming back, every single one of them starting with Pena next week and finishing up with J.P. France on August 15th. And everyone of them will be even better that when they left.”

“No rehab needed?”

“No more than a week apiece. In fact all the pitchers threw 85 pitches topping out at 100 mph in bullpen sessions over the All Star Break. Even the ones who have never topped 95 mph before.”

“Alleluia! Hold all calls from other teams. Call my wife and tell her we are going to spend the next two weeks at Cabo.”

Or the middle of the road

This is also the most likely. The Astros assume they will get some help from the IL. But they probably only count on getting everyday players back. They work to get a rental pitcher – somebody, solid but unspectacular (and not that expensive). They trade for a left-handed outfield bat who is also a rental and not that expensive.

They go home at night and say their prayers.

Turning to my knowledgeable readers, now.

How do you look at the next two weeks? What do you think the front office should and should not do? What do you think they will do?

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17 responses to “2025: The Astros’ most challenging trade deadline”

  1. Good morning from here in Houston. What I’d like to know is why the doctor wants me to keep lowering my cholesterol even though it’s about what Luis Guillorme is hitting. I’d have to go on a cucumber (no salt) diet. If the Astros lose two more in Seattle, then things will have suddenly gotten a bit dicey. If they can win just one of the next two, then it’s not quite time to freak out yet.

    I look at it this way. The Astros have to get Trammell and Hummel and Matthews out of the line up. But it does look as if Brice is going to get a pretty long look. Regardless of what Matthews does, we need Chas to have an impact, Pena to get back and a professional left handed bat to be acquired. Melton might get healthy, but he won’t be the impact bat we need. Jake is in Houston. I’m not counting on him back any sooner (if at all) than I am Yordan. Yeah Dan, it’s impossible to even guess at what the injury reports should really be telling us.

    We also need to get Hector Neris out of the equation. Maybe Dana has a righty arm for the pen on his mind. That might not be too expensive a proposition. It’s probably not going to be Dubin. What about Alimber Santa? Could he be brought up from Corpus?

    Somewhat encouraging news on Javier, Garcia and Arrighetti. But we can’t expect to see any of them until August at this point either. Thing is, even a rental starter is going to take guys like Melton, Matthews, Ullola and others to get a deal done. We might not be getting that arm in a deadline deal. Perhaps we’ll just have to go with what we’ve got. If we get regular Walter type performances and reasonable outcomes from Gordon and Gusto, then that might be enough for the time being. As far as Lance goes, today’s is a big game for him. He needs to send out some confidence vibes today with a solid start. Otherwise, the club has to consider other options. He’s not helping.

    It’s a huge next 12 days for Dana Brown. Can he/will he make the club better with what he’s got to work with?

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  2. I guess I’ll talk to myself some more. There are folks throwing the Astros under the bus at this point. A few really despicable comments across the way. These are Astros fans?

    We got to watch some remarkable baseball played by a compromised roster for most of the pre All Star break part of the season. Things are evening out right now. Bryan Abreu has had a tough time against the M’s in 2025. He almost got out of his mess last night. The wild pitch was painful. The Astro’s are 36-7 on the season when Abreu appears. Hader almost got us the 6 outs we needed for a huge win last night until the odd play developed. It could have been a 1-2-3 double play, but alas it was not to be. I thought the guy got hit too. We’re 37-3 on the season when he’s pitched. I’d take these two guys over any other combination in MLB.

    Lance McCullers can’t really help right now. He tries, but just does not have the tools. Dana has a tough decision to make. Lance thinks he’s a starter, even now. Paredes will be out longer this time. Joe Espada simply does not have any new options to employ.

    Should the Astros weather this latest storm and get the ship righted, then we’re going to see some more remarkable baseball played by a roster I could not have imagined. A roster that will remain ever changing.

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    • That was a weird play. If it hits his hand before the knob and he’s not in the act of swinging it’s a HBP. If it hits his hand, then the knob, and he’s in the act of swinging it’s a foul ball regardless of whether it lands in fair or foul territory. If it hits both, simultaneously, it’s a fair ball. The broadcast crew on the feed I watched didn’t really discuss anything about it. I suspect the NYC review either isn’t allowed to rule on aspects of that play or couldn’t tell for sure what was hit first. It reminds me of the play where Altuve got tossed for taking off his shoe. That’s why they play 162, though. Some weirdness should work out in your favor and balance out the bit that doesn’t.

      I agree with your disdain for these “fans.” We’re not running out a lineup like the Yankees or Dodgers. Guys like Matthews in a better system are still playing at AA and developing. Guys like Trammel (whose acquisition I really liked) aren’t playing meaningful games. Hopefully the team can hold it together through a rough run and go on another run. I’m not going to disparage them for playing with a roster no one in the front office or coaching staff would have picked if not for health/injury problems.

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  3. Dave / Devin thanks for keeping the discussion going:

    Thoughts

    • Like I’ve said before – there is no reason that the team should be above .500, much less where they are right now based on all that has happened to them. People who are picking on a team with this many holes in the lineup are trolls
    • I just can’t believe that Paredes has gone down and I hate hamstrings because they are such an uncertain rehab
    • The McCullers situation might kill this team. Look at what it just did – Put the team in a big hole and then forced them to totally decimate the bullpen. In a post about the challenging trade deadline – the LMJ situation might be more challenging
    • If Caratini had just been able to direct that wild pitch in front of himself instead of it wickedly bouncing to the side….
    • I thought it was a hit by pitch – but Hader had the guy dead to rights if he did not throw it that far inside
    • The team did such a good job battling back yesterday – so sad they couldn’t hold it

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  5. That game turned quickly! Mariners led 3-0 and then the Astros scored 11 unanswered runs over the next 5 innings. You just never know.

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  6. I’m not sure I’d trade any of our younger talent to salvage this season. We seem snakebit by injuries. I say cross our fingers we get important pieces back from injuries and that combined with what we have right now will be enough to cross the finish line into the playoffs. I certainly would not trade important pieces (Matthews, Smith or any starting pitching or possible starters) for a rental. At most, I’d look for bargain bin pieces to fill in at 1st base and the bullpen.

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    • Hey Jeff – it’s been a while but we are always glad to hear from you. It is possible, maybe, we pray, that Walker is finally hitting. In July, 12 games – .327 BA/ .368 OBP/ .868 OPS – 3 HRs/ 13 RBIs.

      But I agree with your basis that it is not worth trading off the top of the deck.

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  7. trade for a left handed bat. One with an expiring contract that won’t cost that much in minor league depth…O’Hearn?
    Arrighetti, Javier and Garcia could all make four more rehab starts and still be back around August 8-10, roughly.

    As long as there are no setbacks (fingers crossed) then you take the chance and skip on picking up a pitcher that costs you more in minor league collateral.

    Place Arrighetti and Javier in the rotation with Brown and Valdez along with Gordon or Walter, or both.

    Move McCullers into 7th inning role ahead of Abreu/Hader. Have Garcia as long relief.

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  8. Thoughts

    • No one would have blamed the Astros for laying down yesterday after losing Paredes, after eating up the bullpen on Saturday, after losing such a disappointing game on Saturday and then having Hunter only cover 4 innings Sunday, while their quasi-AAA lineup was facing a Mariners All Star who seemed to be dealing to start the game. But they roared back after being down 3-0 and won a game that not only was the difference between 2 games in front and 4 games in front, but also between having a free fall momentum and a tapping the brakes turn around.
    • Watching Taylor Trammell play, he has a little bit of Jose Siri to him it feels like. It was a fun game for him with the three hits including a homer and three RBIs and being a part of huge gun down at the plate to hold a 5-3 lead after review. Truth be told his start to the relay was low and it was a good pick and great throw by Dubon and a great pick and tag by Diaz that made the play.
    • Caratini has been a great offensive blessing during a time when half the offense is on the IL – he continues to rake.
    • I’m not sure why the Astros brought in Abreu in the 8th inning with a 11-3 lead. If you are bringing in Gusto in the 9th, who can be a multi-inning pitcher, why not bring him in the 8th and see if he can go two innings?

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    • Dan, I don’t think Gusto was available for multiple innings Sunday afternoon because he had pitched an inning the night before. Everyone who pitched the night before was most likely only going to be able to go 1 inning the following afternoon.

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      • I guess I can buy that OP – just glad that Sunday was not a close game going into extra innings or it would have been Joe asking “anybody here pitched in high school or college?” moment.

        I wonder who would be next non-pitcher up. Frenchie Dubon?

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  9. We went from what was looking like a 2 game division lead to a 4 game division lead yesterday, and without Abreu’s wild pitch or (take your pick) the oddball Hader pitch on Saturday night, we’d likely have a 6 game lead back right now.

    Sure is a kookie season. Hunter did not get much help yesterday, but threw too many pitches early and looks to have a case of dead arm at this point. Hopefully we’ll live through that too, but it might take some rest and a missed start or two. I hope that’s all it is. Next man up?

    My overnight hero is also Taylor Trammellll. He sure picked up Cooper Hummel out in left center, hustling after the catchable ball that was not caught, getting the ball in and allowing for the Correa-esque relay from Frenchie resulting in a huge out at the plate. That might have been the key moment of the game.

    I’m thinking Shay Whitcomb will hit the baseball if penciled in somewhere, anywhere. With Paredes having suffered what looks to be some degree of severe hammy injury, we’ve lost our All Star third baseman for the foreseeable future. Just one more inconvenience for Joe to deal with.

    I sure like this group and I’ll like them regardless of what the next 63 games give us. Who picks us up tonight?

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    • I thought Hunter’s arm and pitches looked just fine. I question Diaz’ calling of the game a bit. When you have a guy like Cal Raleigh who can’t get around on the fastball it’s a great idea to keep throwing it. What was not a great idea was trying to throw it away where his slow bat has more time to catch up. Try busting him in at least once and maybe throw it under his hands where he can’t get around on it. It’s only one at bat in the 3rd inning, but my recollection was his pitch count was at 47 after walking him. He throws 15 more pitches that inning and goes to the dugout trailing 2-0…then struggles getting through the fourth and is out of the game trailing 3-0. Having said all that, the Mariners were laying off a lot of cutters like they knew what was coming. I think the tipping pitches thing is a little overblown these days, but they either had a great gameplan or picked something up to be looking for those during the live game.

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  10. Morning Dan, I was typing slowly as you were posting. I was also wondering about Abreu taking the 8th and as a result being unavailable for tonight. But maybe Joe is hoping he can get some innings out of Gusto on Wednesday, and did not want him to go two innings on Sunday. Someone also said that until yesterday, Gusto had not been used two days in a row. Who knows?

    Just another fascinating day of manipulating the Astro roster, moving guys around the field and getting 27 outs from the pitching staff.

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  11. I think we should stand pat at the deadline, because prices will be too high and we don’t have much to offer. I think there are enough potentially returning high end pitching options (Arrighetti, Javier, Garcia) that one of them can become a serviceable third playoff starter.

    I would love to get O’Hearn, but I think he will cost too much for us. I suspect we will end up with a cheap wild card option, that will likely prove to be underwhelming.

    McCullers needs to go to the bullpen as soon as one of the injured starters returns. He has been worse than Gordon, Gusto, and Walter. I appreciate all he has done for us, but he no longer has starter quality pitches. Hopefully he comes to grips with that.

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  12. The Astros signed their 4th round pick, inf. Nick Monestere out of Southern Miss. He signed for about $200,000 under slot worth..

    They signed their 9th round pick, Kellan Oakes, for about $50,000 over his slot worth. He is a RHP out of Oregon State U.

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