The Astros after wonderfully overcoming obstacles for almost all of the pre-All Star Break portion of the season, suddenly hit the wall in the last week. Their 1-5 homestand, where they had a lightning bolt of a walk-off single from Zack Short (who? exactly) for their only win was a tough nut to swallow. They came staggering into the ASB like Otis stumbling into the Mayberry jail and turning the key.
It has been an interesting study in expectations vs. reality.
- Part of the recent disappointment with the Astros’ performance last week is that on July 6 after completing the sweep of the Dodgers they were 55-35 and seven games up in the AL West. The Mariners were going to play the Yankees and the Tigers – two of the powerhouse teams in the AL, while the Astros were going to play a Cleveland team that had lost 10 games in a row followed by a fourth-place Rangers’ team at 45-48. They were not expecting to go 1-5 and lose two games off of that AL West lead.
- On the other hand if you float back only to June 24 – the Astros were 45-33 and 4-1/2 games up on the Mariners. They were facing a stretch before the ASB that included 9 games against the three first pace teams in the NL (Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers), plus three against a seond place (at that time) Guardindian team, three against an always tough rival, the Rangers and only three against a cream puff Rockies team. Our expectation at that time was that we would be lucky not to lose most of that 4-1/2 game lead before the ASG. And here we are slightly better than we started.
Even after last week’s plummet the Astros were 56-40, which is on pace for a 94 win season. Now when we float back to late March…..
Astros 2025: It’s Crystal Ball Time – ALL THINGS ASTROS
Looking at our expectations at that time – it looks like we predicted the Astros would be in that 88-92 win area for the season, which is not that far from how they have performed. However…..if your expectations before the season were like me that the Astros would win 92 games, how would you have tempered those expectations if you knew:
- Spencer Arrighetti would make two starts and then miss around 4 months (if we are lucky) with a freak hand injury
- Ronel Blanco would make 9 starts and then have TJ surgery knocking him out for the year
- Hayden Wesneski would make 6 starts and then have TJ surgery knocking him out for the year
- Tayler Scott would perform so poorly that he would get released after 17 games
- Forrest Whitley would finally hit the end of the Astros’ patience and be released
- Rafael Montero would be sent along with a prospect to the Braves for cash
- Yordan Alvarez would put up -0.5 WAR in the first month and then go to the IL in the beginning of May and still have an uncertain return 2-1/2 months later.
- Yainer Diaz would put up a .246 BA/ .280 OBP / .688 OPS slash at the ASB after slashing .299/.325/.766 in 2024 (and believe me he was a lot worse than that earlier in 2025)
- Christian Walker, the “big” off-season pickup would put up .229 BA/ .286 OBP/ .660 OPS/ 12 HRs/ 47 RBIs at the ASB. For perspective – he who should not be named – Jose Abreu in 2023 was hitting .237 BA/ .286 OBP/ .630 OPS/ 7 HRs/ 45 RBIs at the ASB.
- Chas McCormick and Zach Dezenzo would not play in June or July due to injury
- Jeremy Pena and Jake Meyers would be the best versions of themselves, but both go down for extended time with injury
If you knew all that was coming back in March, would you expect the Astros to even be at .500 at this point in the season?
But speaking of expectations, what are your expectations for the rest of the season?
- The Astros are 56-40 with a five-game lead in the division and 66 games to go – what do you expect their record and position to be at the end of the season?
- When do you expect Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, and /or Zach Dezenzo to return (if ever) and how will they play?
- When do you expect Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and J.P. France to return (if ever) and how do you expect them to be used and how will they perform?
This is the time to look forward instead of back. What do you see?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
7 responses to “Astros’ 2025: Expectations vs. reality at the All Star break”
I expect the Astros to win as long as Brown and Valdez pitch well. I expect the Astros won’t win when they don’t pitch well. Everything else – from Yordan to Pena to injuries to MOR guys, matter in small bits, but if the top 2 pitchers continue to see the team winning 65-70% of their starts they can overcome losing even superstar, top 5 type hitter in the league quality players. Heck, at that point, everyone else just has to play .500 and you are a shoo-in. You lose either guy OR the workload starts showing and they get hit some, the road just went uphill in incline.
That’s it. Valdez, Brown, Abreu and Hader. They are making this thing go. Paredes has been a great addition, Pena was great until he was gone, Meyers is probably due some ground balls not finding their holes, but there are 9 guys batting. Only 1 on the bump. If the 1 on the bump keeps the game winnable, a lot of the times Zach Short or Cooper Hummel will have that individual moment and win a close game. But if the 1 guy on the bump doesn’t keep the game winnable, well, even the Dodgers are struggling there with their vaunted offense. Every time McCullers gives up 6 runs in 3 innings, I just turn off the TV.
So my expectation, mid-July to mid-August could be rough unless Brown and Valdez are just lights out. But if only one of the Arrighetti/Javier/Garcia trio return to pitch well, pushing McCullers down, or maybe even out of the rotation, we will end up with a fairly comfortable division win. If Brown/Valdez start struggling, or none of the three returners make an impact, well, I am not sure if the clock is going to strike midnight and Walter and/or Gordon are about to turn into pumpkins or not.
I also expect you are about to see the return of Jon Singleton. Just when you thought you were free of that in your life, flashback time. The only thing keeping that from happening so far has been a hot Caratini, and not having the need for that lefty bat to come take some DH days.
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oldpro – I noticed that the Orioles picked twice in the first 30 picks, then again at 37, and finally again at 58. Nothing against Walker, but I don’t see how signing him should penalize us more than we gain for losing Bregman.
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I think it’s remarkable the Astros are 16 games over .500 with a 5 game lead in the division with 66 games to go. There will be more ups and downs, no doubt. I don’t know what to expect in Seattle this weekend and then Arizona. I’d gladly take 3-3.
I also don’t know what to expect in terms of which guys on the sideline will play baseball again in the next two and a half months. I have to assume we’ll get some depth back and that should help. But I won’t try to figure out when and if people we really need will be back.
I do think we’ll win the division. We might be 90 and 72 or something in that range. If Yordan and Pena and Jake give us 6 to 8 weeks each and we get more pitching depth back, we could win 98. Based on what little we know from the Astro injury updates, I think Javier and Garcia can be those depth guys. I have no expectations of France. I might be nuts at this point, but I think Chas will help someone this season. I also think Zach will eventually help someone too, but it might not be this year.
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I forgot to mention Arrighetti. He’s missed so much time there’s no telling if he can contribute in 2025. And one little mention on Cam Smith. His BAbip is .378. That’s pretty high. I would not mind if he hit a little less for average and started to hit the ball out of the park more often. As for Diaz and Walker, I’d take more BA in high leverage situations. I’d settle for that.
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A couple of notes –
Cora hinted in an interview yesterday that the OF depth is something they can trade from. He wants Anthony playing everyday, and not at DH. So they are at the point they have to play Rafeala in the IF some, platoon Yoshida and Refsnyder and DH Abreu just to get them all in the lineup. Now, I don’t think we could get Abreu or Duran without including a major league caliber starter, and we just don’t have those to spare, but I bet a deal that starts with Ullola and some other minor leaguers could be used to get Yoshida. The issue with that move is the Astros seem to be working hard to stay under the cap this year, probably to reset the tax number. In the end Boston is going to move 1 of 3 lefty hitters that we could use, and its unlikely we will be able to outbid what someone else offers. That’s the unfortunate cascade effect of losing 2 first round picks, drafting late, and missing on some.
Is this decade long lawsuit between Crane and McLane (I just realized they rhyme) coming to a head? Now, we know it wasn’t going to happen, but McLane suggesting ownership be reverted back to and the sale negated was fun to consider the possibilities.
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I’d probably trade Matthews if that what it took to get the guy we need.
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The Astros have announced the signing of their 12th round pick, Elijah Farley. He is an 18 yo OF from Navarro HS in Navarro Tx. His bonus was $150,000. The Astros historically draft a desirable HS player in the 11-12 round with the hope of signing them with savings from lighter bonuses saved up from the first ten rounds. Apparently Farley was ready to be an Astros prospect all along. Maybe they will be able to capture one of their other late round HS draftees additionally.
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