The Astros opened their 2025 draft by selecting Xavier Neyens, a third baseman out of Mount Vernon High School (WA), with the 21st overall pick. They followed that in the third round with Ethan Frey, a college outfielder from LSU. On paper, it might look like a balance: raw prep power paired with polished college experience. But let’s dig a little deeper.
Houston didn’t have a second-round pick. That made Neyens not just their first pick—but their only premium pick this year. And they used it on a player who likely won’t sniff the big leagues for at least five years—if ever.
Some mock drafts had Neyens slipping into the second round. Most predicted the Astros would target a college bat—names like Arkansas SS Wehiwa Aloy or Texas A&M OF Jace LaViolette were commonly linked to the club. For the record, both Aloy and LaViolette went later in the first round.
If Neyens had fallen to the second, he may have opted to stick with his college commitment, mature at Oregon State, and re-enter the draft down the road—especially with NIL money being what it is today.
So why Neyens?
Let’s be clear: I’m not high on high schoolers late in the first round. Of course, my retirement funds might look better had I taken more risks years ago. But I digress.
The Astros aren’t drafting for 2026. They’re drafting for 2030.
To be fair, Neyens flashes big tools—plus raw power, a big arm, and athleticism that jumps off the page. But he’s still a project. He’s apparently not facing top-tier high school competition, and the bat will take time. There’s a reason most clubs lean toward college hitters in this range—they’re closer to ready, easier to evaluate, and typically carry less risk.
You need not look further than Cam Smith, the 14th pick in 2024.
And yet, the Astros passed this year on the safer play.
You only do that if you’re:
- Confident in your current major-league roster.
- Comfortable with your player development system.
- Patient enough to wait for a long-term payoff.
This is a Dana Brown pick—and it says a lot about how he views his standing. It’s his third draft, and he’s now stamping the organization with his philosophy, for better or worse.
GMs on the hot seat draft safe. They reach for college arms or productive SEC bats who might debut in two years. They play the PR game. They hedge.
Brown didn’t hedge.
Instead, he made a pick that won’t bear fruit (if ever) until well after the next presidential cycle. You don’t do that unless ownership is aligned, the player development pipeline is trusted, and your seat is cool.
In short, this pick reflects organizational security at the top.
History offers both encouragement and caution. Houston has struck gold before on high-upside high schoolers. Do you remember Kyle Tucker? He was a much-surer pick at #5 though. There are cautionary tales, too:
- Brady Aiken (2014): Never signed. Never made the majors.
- Forrest Whitley (2016): Once a can’t-miss prospect. Now a cautionary tale—plagued by injuries and long gone from Houston’s plans.
Drafting a high school bat in the first round is always a dice roll. When it’s your only top-50 pick, it’s a double down.
Then there’s Ethan Frey. If Neyens is the swing-for-the-fence play, Frey is the stabilizer.
A physical, mature outfielder with SEC pedigree, Frey has logged meaningful reps against elite competition. He could move quickly through the system and become a valuable fourth outfielder—or more—within two to three years. He won two high school state championships in Louisiana and two College World Series titles at LSU. That’s a winning pedigree.
Still, he’s a third-round pick. The headline belongs to Neyens. (But there’s a better-than-even chance you’ll see Frey in Houston before you see Neyens, but that’s just me.)
Let’s be fair: more than any other sport, the MLB Draft is a gamble. This one wasn’t about urgency. It wasn’t about need. It wasn’t about what’s happening on the field at Daikin Park in 2026.
This was a long-range bet. A trust-your-scouts, bet-on-your-system, play-the-long-game kind of draft. And it tells us:
- The front office feels secure and steady.
- The club believes in its current core.
- The organization is willing to wait.
And most importantly:
- This wasn’t about headlines. It was about belief in the process.
Now they just need Xavier Neyens to make it worth the wait.
And now comes Day 2, and it will be dizzying! This was just Day 1 of the 2025 MLB Draft. First-rounders get the spotlight, but the real foundation of an organization is often built in the later rounds—where scouting, development, and culture intersect.
And no one does that better than Houston.
Just look at the track record:
- Hunter Brown, Round 5 (2019) – now anchors the rotation.
- Spencer Arrighetti (6th), Colton Gordon (8th), and Ryan Gusto (11th) – all once-no-name arms now contributing at the big-league level.
That’s not luck. That’s seems more like system-wide excellence to me, and that’s impressive. It’s a front office that trusts its process—from area scout to pitching systems.
So yes, taking a high school bat like Neyens in the first round carries risk. But if the Astros do what they’ve consistently done—find arms with upside on Days 2 and 3, and develop overlooked gems into contributors—this draft could prove as productive as any.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
19 responses to “Astros’ Draft (so far): A swing for the future, not the present”
Neyens was the guy they were targeting with the 21st pick. I saw two major mock drafts predict him as their pick. From what Wood said, they sent at least 5 front office personnel to confirm the Astros west coast scout’s report.
I don’t know anything about him except what I read about him. I do know that Paredes and Pena will likely move on from the Astros when their current deals expire.
I feel like MLB has made it easier for wealthy large-market teams to keep their advantage over small market teams and have done everything to keep teams down below MLB’s favorites. I think they hate the Astros for having spoiled their favoritism by winning.
I’m hoping the Astros keep getting good players from the international market and turn them into future good players. I’m also hoping they draft someone whom they can turn into a good fielding, decent hitting first baseman that they can keep for many years and get them out of the rut they are in there.
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Chip, I like these first two picks and have faith in Brown and his scouts . I don’t know much about the first pick, but as an LSU homer and raised in Vernon Parish, I’m excited about the second. He’s the hero of Rosepine, La. After recovering from injury, he batted second in the lineup, for average and power for the College World Series Champions. He was a DH, but he’s athletic and can play OF or maybe one day first base.
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Larry, yes, I like the Frey selection. It may not be classified as a steal, but it’s a solid-plus pick. He’ll get some ABs this summer and they’ll know better where to start him next season, but keep your eyes on him.
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old pro, there were some rumblings about Neyens, but I didn’t see any mocks that actually picked him. Call me old school, or just stubborn, or maybe I’ve even adjusted to the instant-gratification generation to much.
As I mentioned, I’ll bet you see Frey in Houston before you see Neyens.
I’m a Louisiana boy too, so glad he’s staying close to home.
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We had better see Frey first because he is an experienced college player, whereas Neyens is a graduating high schooler. I think it was the two ESPN draft experts who had pegged the Astros to take Neyens. I thought they were silly, because I thought the Astros would go after a college guy in the first round. The experts were correct.
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Hmm, the ESPN experts I saw had the A&M OF as the likely pick.
Even McTaggart had them going towards college talent.
https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/astros-2025-draft-preview?t=mlb-draft-coverage
Nonetheless, some guys obviously got it right with Neyens!
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And Day 2 has started more predictably, but interesting for Houston.
Round 4: Nick Monistere IF, Southern Mississippi
Round 5: Nick Potter P, Wichita State.
College players, though Potter was more active in transfer portal projections than MLB draft projections! He’s one of the prospect-type guys, but he comes in with 100 mph heater. Notably, he’s been a bullpen guy at Wichita State.
For the record…Monistere was ranked #212 on ESPN’s rankings. Houston chose him with the 126th pick.
Potter was not ranked in the Top 250, chosen at #156.
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I’ll keep trusting my team. Anyone who can draft a Wayne State pitcher in the fifth round and develop him to the point he is an ace and an All Star starting pitcher is trustworthy. We can add a lot more pleasant surprises to that resume also. Like a third round SS out of Maine U. who is developed into an All-Star SS. Shall I continue?
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We agree that they’ve gotten it right over and over again, especially in the lesser-noticed rounds. Brown, Arrigetti, Gordon, Gusto just a few of the guys I mentioned and there are plenty of others.
The emphasis seems to be on the development, so hopefully they have better luck wtih Neyens than Whitely and Aiken.
They just picked up another pitcher from (ahem) Taylor University, then a HS catcher in the 7th round. Back to the college ranks in the ninth with a second baseman from Arizona State.
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As I noted earlier this morning, I don’t follow high school or college players, nor do I study the upcoming draft. Of course, once these guys sign, I’ll immediately start watching their stats. But I know nothing about the kids. I thought Loperfido was going to be good. I really liked Domingo Santana. But I did start getting excited about my favorite all time Astro back when he was playing in Lancaster. 1 out of 3 is not bad.
I’m also dubious of the Astros taking a high school kid in the first round. Zavier is an outspoken, sharp kid, and that reminds a bit of Whitley. But he does seem more grounded and a non stop hard worker, and hopefully he’s a mature kid that is also a better decision maker. These are the guys the Astros look for. And I like the fact that he already stays inside the zone. So Chip, as impatient as I am too, I’m going to hope for our big pick to join the Astros in 3 years.
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Chip – I have to agree on that second day and beyond being so important to the depth of the team
And I’ll always fondly remember 7th rounder and Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel
I won’t bore folks with it – but there were draft picks/prospects that added Verlander and Cole and Greinke to this team.
It is always fun to see who is the real deal
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Dan, you can’t talk “fondly” without mentioning that 23rd rounder by the name of, umm, Roy Oswalt. And, yes, he was a high school draft project that took five years to get to the Big Show.
As I recall, he worked out okay.
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And then there was the Astros choosing Phil Nevin first overall instead of Derek Jeter (reportedly because of affordability of signing) which caused scout Hal Newhouser to resign in disgust.
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Phil Nevin was the best player in college baseball in 1992. It’s also notable he was playing for the Toros (AAA) in 1993. While Andujar Cedeno wasn’t good in 1992 he was actually pretty good in 1993 as a 23 year old. 1992 was also the first year that Biggio played 2B and also a year he made the All Star team. While hindsight is 20/20, it wouldn’t have made a lot of sense to go after Jeter at first overall. We should instead chastise the other teams picking Paul Shuey (CLE), BJ Wallace (MON), Jeffery Hammonds (BAL), and Chad Mottola (CIN) in front of Jeter.
I’m not crazy about the college hitters in this year’s draft. There were some big arms available though. Given the state of our farm system I think going after higher upside guys makes sense.
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I always found the following one of the more interesting drafts ever.
1976 Major League Baseball draft – Wikipedia
The Astros grabbed Floyd Bannister first overall in that draft. He had two mediocre seasons for the Astros, but most significantly he was traded for Craig Reynolds who was a solid IF for the team.
Looking right after Bannister – there was not a Jeter type in the non-descript picks right after him. There were some decent players down the line – Leon Durhan, Mike Scioscia and Bruce Hurst, but no knock your socks guy in that first round.
But the Astros had a shot at some all-timers later – just imagine if they had…
OK – the Tigers did draft Trammell, Morris and Smith – but Ozzie did not sign and went back into the 1977 draft.
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The way scouting is changing to me is taking excuses away to fail early in the draft. We have drafted well when we were picking early – Correa, Bregman, Tucker, Springer, and McCullers (to a point) were great picks. Aiken and Appel were miserable picks, but without Aiken’s failure there is no Tucker. They also have failed 1st rounders Daz Cameron, Bukauskas, Beer, Whitley, Lee, the guys that should be here carrying loads, 5 1st rounders in a row failed. To be fair, they were all drafter later in the round – a result of a winning franchise.
I think the environment we are in now, where stars are making 20-30% of salary allocation and fixing a position is expensive, requires you to have a better hit/miss rate than our 2015-2022 stretch of first rounders. It’s important for Matthews to succeed, otherwise fixing 2B will either cost 15-20M a year or they will take incredibly bad risks by investing in guys like Rodgers or Guillorme.
Think about our history at 1B since Lance Berkman left the franchise. They have failed with young guys Brett Wallace, Chris Carter, Jon Singleton, Seth Beer and AJ Reed, and were forced to play guys like Marwin there just trying to get something. They have had to fix it (or attempt to fix it) with 170M in contracts to Yuli, Abreu and Walker, and still have never seen the production of Bagwell/Berkman days.
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Did anyone notice or see any evidence that the Astros received that late fourth round pick for the loss of Bregman to free agency. I did notice that the Astros lost their second round pick for signing Walker. What the hell is happening to baseball?
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Op, I haven’t seen anything related to that in this draft.
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I’m sitting here wondering what we’ll see from the Astros over the brief 66 game second half of the season.
So many question marks with the roster.
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