Unloading Astros’ “stuff”: Pre-All Star version

Every once in a while, Dan P’s little brain becomes clogged with various unrelated items that don’t add up to a post by themselves, but are too interesting to let drop. Without further ruminating, here are some Astros’ “stuff” to ponder.

  • Paredes vs. Bregman – With Isaac getting added onto the All Star team, it felt like a good time to make some comparisons between the two of them.
    • Bregman – $36.66 million for 2025 / Paredes – $6.6 million for 2025
    • Bregman  .299 BA/.385 OBP/.938 OPS –  Paredes .255 BA/.357 OBP/.826 OPS
    • Bregman – 51 gm / 197 ABs out since May 23 – Paredes – 89 gm/ 333 ABs
    • Bregman – 32 runs/  11 HRs/  35 RBIs  –  Paredes 49 runs/19 HRs/49 RBIs
    • Bregman 2.9 WAR / Paredes 2.5 WAR
    • Cumulative Stats Team Third Basemen
      • Astros    –  .254 BA/ .350 OBP/  .808 OPS/ 19 HRs/ 52 RBIs
      • Red Sox – .281 BA/ .348 OBP/ .837 OPS/  16 HRs/ 50 RBIs

This is about as good a result as you could hope for as Astros’ fans. The team is paying $30 million less this year for their third baseman and with Bregman going up to $42 million the next two seasons (yes, some is deferred and yes, Alex could opt out) and could perhaps save more the next two seasons. And though Bregman was certainly earning his keep with his performance, now that he has missed almost 6 weeks the overall production at third base between the teams is very close.

Bregman may come back before the ASB (Is their manager, Alex Cora (Spit!!) in Boston better at predicting returns than Joe Espada?). Perhaps then he will hit the slump we know is coming to even out his numbers.

Not a complete All-Star team – but except for catcher – you could come up with a darned good 26-man roster with this bunch. (Don’t look too close at the right side of the infield).

  • A Tough Task – If you take a second to look here…..

Astros injuries and roster moves

You will see:

  • Spencer Arrighetti had a 30-pitch bullpen on July 4 and is expected to return in July.
  • Luis Garcia threw a two-inning minor league rehab on July 7 and is expected back in late July / early August.
  • Cristian Javier threw two innings of live bullpen on July 7. He is expected back in July.
  • J.P. France threw a 26-pitch bullpen on June 27 and was scheduled to throw a live bullpen on July 9. He is expected back in late 2025 (whatever that means).

So if you are keeping track and if you believe any medical information that the team provides (Ignoring Carlos Correa’s massaged ribs, Lance McCullers Jr. – he’s back / not back, Kyle Tucker’s bruised knee becoming fractured, Luis Garcia – he’s back/not back, and Jeremy Pena’s bruised ribs sprouting a break – oh and Jake Meyers tight calf morphing into something else) – we may have three or four potential starters back to a team that has five or six starters right now.

How both the GM Dana Brown and the manager Joe Espada are going to handle this is going to be both a tough and a psychologically delicate task. Getting help back should be a positive thing, but just picture how difficult it has been merging one pitcher, McCullers, since his return from the IL. It has swung from “we love the guy” good to “please shoot us now (and him too)” bad. Will he go three innings or six? Will he shut them out or make a win impossible on our side?

Then picture how you do this with multiple returnees. Do they all go back in the rotation or in the bullpen. Who are the odd men out from the list of Hunter Brown (No), Framber Valdez (Hell no), Lance McCullers (probably not), Ryan Gusto, Brandon Walters and Colton Gordon. Who is headed back to Sugar Land? Who might end up being a tandem pitching buddy with one of the returning pitchers.

And the real zinger here is that none of them will be back in time to influence what Dana Brown needs to be doing at the deadline. Will Javier return and look like Mr. Partial No-No from 2022? Will Luis Garcia remind us of the guy who went six huge innings against the M’s in the 2022 ALDS? Will Arrighetti return to Mr. Double Digit K Machine from late last year? Will J.P. France remind us of Mr. Steady from 2023?

If any of these guys return to being the best imitation of themselves, it would make a move to add starting pitching look like emphasis on an area of strength when there are bigger fish to fry (theoretically). If none of them return to anything but a list saying they have had a setback or they are not quite right, then missing on picking up starting help will look remiss.

This will be a fascinating and difficult course to trek.

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38 responses to “Unloading Astros’ “stuff”: Pre-All Star version”

  1. Oh wow – I forgot among all those medical failures – Yordan Alvarez’s hand discomfort becoming a broken hand.

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  2. Brice Matthews is joining the club tomorrow. Dana Brown is kind of forced to make that move right now, hoping our top prospect will use his athleticism to help ignite the club again. I guess that will put Jose back in left/DH for now.

    With Jake out, and I agree for a longer period than we want to consider right now, I’m back to hoping for some kind of trade(s) that will bring offensive help asap. At this point, more pitching seems to be the lesser priority even though we don’t have enough.

    For now, I’m looking at small increments. Be ready to play this weekend. Then get some rest. Then be ready to play in Seattle. And then it’s just 10 games to the deadline.

    It will indeed be fascinating to see what this club looks like in 20, 30, 40 days and beyond.

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  3. When you get swept but don’t give up any ground and remain 7 games in front, someone is on our side. I have no idea what to expect this weekend.

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  4. Lots of interesting points Dan.

    I think the Astros and the Rockets are in a pretty similar spot. Both have rosters that are deep in mediocre/just-above-average talent with professional experience, and both rosters have a one bonafide HOFer (Altuve/Durant) and few all-stars (Sengun, Thompson, Pena, Brown, Framber) and a bunch of “assets.” I wonder if both teams are looking at some 3 for 1 or 4 for 1 moves.

    An example, and Dave will love this, the last few days the speculators looking for clicks have all been on a Astros/Royals deal for Seth Lugo. One proposal I saw was Gordon/Dezenzo/Melton for Lugo. I might pull the trigger on that. I like Zach, but lets be honest, he is a corner infielder and has no home in Houston. I don’t like Melton so much. Colton is my favorite among them, but the guy with a 4.76 ERA looks like the kind of pitcher you can expect to always have a 4.76 ERA. Just good enough to go out and get you 6 innings of 1 run ball, and just bad enough to go out and get popped for 6 runs in 3 innings at any time. Lugo would complete this playoff rotation. It’s a pure rental as Lugo, unless he gets injured, is expected to decline his one year player option for 2026. So maybe it feels like an overpay.

    The hard part about that proposal is that all 3 of Gordon, Dezenzo and Melton are better than Wagner/Loperfido/Bloss. Dezenzo may end up a starter in the big leagues before he is done. Gordon seems like the perfect number 5 starter that can pitch around .500 over a season.

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  5. I put this in a comment on July 1 talking about Brice vs. Jeremy at about the same age at AAA

    My two cents on Brice Matthews

    Let’s compare Brice this year to Jeremy Pena’s last time at AAA

    Pena – On this date in 2021 would have been 23 yrs – 282 days old

    Matthews today is 23 yrs – 107 days old – about a half year younger.

    In 2021 Pena played 30 games at AAA / Matthews 67 games so far

    Pena – .287 BA / Matthews – .285 BA

    Pena – .346 OBP/ Matthews – .403 OBP

    Pena – .944 OPS / Matthews – .895 OPS

    Pena – 26% K rate/ Matthews – 28.5% K rate

    Pena – 4.5% walk rate / Matthews – 15.4% walk rate

    However, on the radio they were talking about one black mark about Matthews – his road and home splits at Sugar Land considering that SL is like Daikin park as far as how thick the air is and the road games for SL are in the mostly high/thin air of the PCL

    Road – .333 BA/ .436 OBP/ 1.077 OPS/ 10 HRs/ 33 RBIs in 41 games

    Home – .212 BA/ .350 OBP/ .598 OPS/ 0 HRs/ 6 RBIs in 32 games

    That is a bit disturbing.

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    • I am sure the Astros have more advanced tools than we get access too. I would love to see, in comparison to Pena, how well Matthews handles certain pitches and certain velocities. We get access to that kind of information at the big league level through statcast, and Pena is typically unphased by 98. Our eyes and statcast both tell us that he has always struggled with the slider, and that is continuing though the marked improvement he has made as a hitter even if he is only half as bad as he used to be on them.

      Matthews walk rates hint that he won’t be as susceptible to them, but we have no idea how he handles velocity yet – and won’t tell he gets here. He is going to see a lot more folks that can command 98 in Houston than he ever saw in Sugar Land.

      My point is similarities in stats don’t mean similarities in hitters. The fact that Matthews can lay off bad pitches better means there is something else in his hitting profile that keeps the rest of his stats in line or I would expect him to be hitting .320. Maybe its the bat to ball tool, how fast he can get it there consistently with authority, that lags Pena.

      I would take him performing at a 24 year old Pena line though if it means solidifying 2B with someone that will give us something, versus putting Rodgers out there again and getting nothing. I can’t imagine, even if he struggles some, that he can’t outperform what we have gotten from non-Altuve at bats at 2B all year.

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  6. All this medical “malpractice” brought back something from my families past. About 20 years ago, our third son Adam was at my parent’s house shooting hoops. He stepped on the basketball and went down landing on his arm. Monday comes around and his wrist is bothering him.

    My wife takes him to the pediatrician and they do an X-ray and tell them it is not a break. When she takes him back in to school – she runs into the band director (my son was a trumpet player in the band and they were getting ready to go to competition). He hears Adam still is sore and says – forget Kelsey Seybold (the pediatrician) go see Dr. Thomas Parr, an orthopedic surgeon in Sugar Land. Dr. Parr had them re-do the Xrays and says yes he has a broken wrist and a good thing they caught it then because it could have healed wrong on its own and caused him arthritis problems later in life.

    They set his wrist and put it in a position so he could fake holding the trumpet with it – he would hold and play the trumpet with his other hand, but he would “look” right for competition. My wife found a huge white glove to put over it so he would match the other players.

    Dr. Parr I believe is retired, but was my kind of surgeon (I ended up going to him for a number of problems) because he went first to non-surgical solutions to problems. Lots of time all I needed was to do certain exercises and the problem would be resolved. Dr. Parr had been a medic in Vietnam which led him into a career in medicine – a great guy.

    Anyways – my long-winded point – if the Astros are being sent to certain non-specialists initially because of some contract the Astros have with Methodist or whoever – they need to revisit that because they are certainly not getting the right kind of medical services.

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    • About four years ago, I went to my GP because I was aching through all of my upper joints. He sent me to a neurosurgeon who said I needed to undergo surgery immediately because I was suffering from stenosis of the cervical area. It is a HUGE surgery. I said I will think about it but he persisted and I still said no. I wanted a second opinion. I then went to another neurosurgeon who suggested a conservative remedy… exercise and therapy. So, I did that and I also went to my cardiologist. The cardiologist said it was the statins that I was taking and after getting off of them, the pain stopped. Always, ALWAYS get a second opinion. That saved me from an unnecessary and distressing surgery.

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    • I sincerely hope Jim Crane revisits the club’s relationship with the Methodist doctors on the staff. Ugh!

      Surely, there are some trainers who can set up strength and flexibility regimens for the players that can prevent all of these injuries. Yes, some are unavoidable but come on!!!

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  8. Matthews hitting eighth today and playing second. Altuve in LF, Diaz at DH. Walker’s back in the lineup.

    Espada says Matthews will play “regularly.” So they’re giving the kid a shot…

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  10. And LMJ starts off by giving up 2 runs. He sure ain’t a MOR guy. It seems he’s either on or off leaning to the latter.

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  11. Good morning!

    LMJ is not progressing. We get a tease every now and then but the overall body of work is not improving. Take a look at his advanced stats on Baseball Savant. If there is good news, he’ll get some rest now, and really is not needed for the post AS break Seattle series. I’d rather go with one of the new guys at this point, however that likely won’t happen. But Lance set the tone for the series last night. We needed someone to give us a good start.

    Singleton hit a homer last night in OKC. I suppose he might be a DH candidate when Jose is out in left. I guess we’ll have to see how the Matthews experiment goes.

    And Chas hit a dinger too. Gosh, if he can get his timing back, he’d be a huge help in center. I still don’t think he’s done and I do think Jake on the 10-day means nothing. Zach is not coming back anytime soon either. Dana has some work to do over the next 3 weeks.

    And a long shot here, but maybe the break will give club officials time to meet in an effort to sort out a new way to manage injury protocol for the club. Again, long shot. Problem is that none of us have confidence in the limited information being decimated by the club.

    Sure would be nice to come out on top of what should be a real pitchers duel. Framber really needs to be first ace tonight.

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  12. Thoughts

    daveb – I don’t think you meant to say the word decimated in relation to medical communication from the team – but it fits.

    The one positive – the Astros send out Framber and Hunter in the last two games before the break and if that does not help right the ship – then we have a whole new set of problems.

    Cam Smith struggled in his first month with the big team, but I don’t think he looked as lost as Brice Matthews looked last night. Hope he can do a bit better coming up.

    We need Chas back badly. Some kind of spark or positive for the team.

    Dezenzo being put on the 60 day means he won’t be back until August at best. I heard an interview with Meyers yesterday – it did not sound like it was anything beyond a calf strain (like an Achilles) but it did not sound like he had any idea how serious it was and how long it would be.

    LMJ? This is getting to a bad point. You don’t know which Lance will be showing up and more importantly you don’t know how long he will go, because the man can get into these marathon pitch counts – 83 pitches in 3 innings? Yikes. At least when one of the young guys struggle they are still giving us 5 or 6 innings.

    On the broadcast they said that last night was the first time in more than a month that the M’s won the same day the Astros lost. That is wild.

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    • Dan, I didn’t see the game, but when you look at the boxscore and see

      * Struck out looking.
      * Struck out looking.
      * Struck out swinging.

      It probably doesn’t look much worse in the boxscore than the actual video.

      From what I’ve seen, Matthews is no Cam Smith. Cam may be one of those diamonds who comes along every so often. Matthews is hitting only .261 over parts of three minor league seasons.

      Yes, hopefully, he can find his sea legs and it appears that Espada is going to give him a shot. I think that’s a good thing. If he DOES make it happen, wow, what a new nucleus to build around: Paredes, Smith, Matthews.

      One other (sour) note/question: Would they try to showcase Matthews in the majors for a major trade? Hmm. Probably not, but wondering….

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  13. After leading for most of the game and then both Abreu and Hader give up bombs late, Zach Short comes through with a dramatic oppo hit for the Astros in the 11th inning, stopping the bleeding. This game was a heartstopper!.

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  14. Thoughts

    • Excellent starting pitching both sides for last night’s game – Framber once again is deprived of a win.
    • I was being driven to insanity by the Fox announcers last night. Inning after inning that DeGrom should have a shutout going – that it was two pitches he shouldn’t have thrown, why throw a changeup, etc. He threw it and they hit it. End of story. There was not inning after inning of Framber should have had a shutout due to the error behind him that led to the score.
    • And then …. we had to keep hearing that the Rangers needed just this or that to tie the game. We all can count – we know how far back 2 runs or 1 run are.
    • Joe Espada is living the good life when he makes defensive substitutions that put Kenedy Corona and Zack Short in the lineup for Altuve and Caratini – sees the bullpen blow the lead and then Corona draws a critical walk to load the bases (while trying to bunt them over) and Short lines one to right field to win the game.
    • And you have a shallow depth on the team when you have to send Cooper Hummel up for a critical at bat in the 10th.
    • Crazy game that like OP says – stopped the bleeding.
    • Now let good Hunter show up and some kind of offense appear.

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    • Hopefully Joe and Dana have a pretty good idea at this point which of the emergency promotions really won’t be of much help in the grander scheme of things. It’s been a tough week. Some kind of correction was inevitable. All in all, an excellent win that hopefully will lead to one more today.

      I also heard this morning that Josh Hader is lobbying Jim Crane for the removal of the Crawford Boxes. At least the first couple of rows!

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  15. Got to see the game live last night.

    Full disclosure. When Hader came in, I told my boys and my wife that he didn’t have a blown save all year. I’ll own that. My bad. But if you hold me accountable for that, you’ll also have to credit me with taking care of business in the 11th. Even made a cameo appearance on the big screen in middle of the 11th.

    Dave, they campaigned to remove Tal’s Hill a few years back. If that was a safety issue, I can see how Hader could claim the same “safety” problems with the Crawford Boxes. 😉

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  16. Today’s lineup looks like a mashup, makeshift, thrown-together card. Third baseman is DHing, the left fielder is playing second, the backup shortstop (to Pena) is playing third, and there’s a rookie and a couple of journeymen starting in the outfield today.

    And, then, there’s arguably the best pitcher in the AL on the mound.

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  19. Is it time to jump off of the bandwagon??

    What should we expect, really, considering that the lineup has three players who have been DFA’ed in the past two years.

    Hopefully, the time off will do some good.

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  21. This weekend, the Mariners did to the best-record Tigers exactly what the Astros did to the best-record Dodgers last weekend. A three game sweep on the road!

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  22. it’ll be interesting to see what they say on “Sports Map Hou”. This team definitely needs a break and an infusion of better players.

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  23. With 66 games to play in the regular season, I had not imagined any circumstance that would have us first in the division with a 5 game lead. That said, Dana Brown has his work cut out for him. He needs to make the club better regardless of who has to get traded. Do we have any untouchables in the minors or among the minor league guys that have gotten a cameo to date?

    I also have zero confidence in Dana’s Yordan update today. And three weeks plus for Jake? I’d double that at least.

    All that said, it’s been a great first half to watch, and I’m certainly not ready to write these guys off, although we’ve got too many guys that just don’t belong in the majors, try as they might.

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  24. With 66 games to play in the regular season, I had not imagined any circumstance that would have us first in the division with a 5 game lead. That said, Dana Brown has his work cut out for him. He needs to make the club better regardless of who has to get traded. Do we have any untouchables in the minors or among the minor league guys that have gotten a cameo to date?

    I also have zero confidence in Dana’s Yordan update today. And three weeks plus for Jake? I’d double that at least.

    All that said, it’s been a great first half to watch, and I’m certainly not ready to write these guys off, although we’ve got too many guys that just don’t belong in the majors, try as they might.

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  25. Good morning! I know nothing about the draft. I know nothing about our first pick. Across the way, Dana’s first choice is a total dud or a very astute pick and everything in between. And the media experts don’t seem to think 18 year old Xavier Neyens is a slam dunk.

    Seems to me that the major university route held better odds of us getting help sooner. And I think we need help.

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  26. Good morning! I know nothing about the draft. I know nothing about our first pick. Across the way, Dana’s first choice is a total dud or a very astute pick and everything in between. And the media experts don’t seem to think 18 year old Xavier Neyens is a slam dunk.

    Seems to me that the major university route held better odds of us getting help sooner. And I think we need help.

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  27. Thoughts

    • Draft-wise – I know nothing, but Chip knows some things and will be posting about them.
    • So, will they keep their rotation as it is – which means that Framber and Hunter will not start right away after the break – but get a few extra days of rest? I think especially Hunter could use it.
    • They need somebody/anybody to come back – even if it is Chas – they need a positive move towards health
    • If you bet that the last two runs knocked in by the Astros headed to the ASB would be by Zack Short – I think you would make some bucks off that
    • Before you cut out a few rows pout of the Crawford Boxes – do a little research project on who it helps/hurts the most. The Astros do drop a few in there too.
    • It is a good time for the team to rest and re-set. Hope it works out that way and the cavalry is not far off.

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