The July 4 holiday marks the unofficial halfway point of the major league baseball season. So…
Let’s be honest. Three months ago, the Astros were staring down a long list of What Ifs. High hopes with a front-end rotation that was solid. No Kyle Tucker. No Alex Bregman. Ryan Pressly and Yusei Kikuchi gone. Lineup changes galore, new faces everywhere. The AL West looked wide open—and not necessarily in Houston’s favor.
Fast forward to July, and this team has flipped the script. They own the second-best record in the majors, lead the division by seven games, and haven’t had a losing month all season. If I’d told you back in April that’s where we’d be in July, you’d have implemented the 25th Amendment and voted me off the island. And you’d probably have asked Dan to put me out to pasture and leave me there.
Here’s a look at just how surprising this 2025 ride has been so far…
If I’d told you three months ago that Hunter Brown would be shouldering the Astros’ rotation as their ace, you’d probably have said, “Nope. As long as Framber’s here, it’s his staff.”
Yet Brown is now 9–3 with a 1.82 ERA and 126 strikeouts over 106 innings, plus 13 quality starts—solidly in the top tier of AL starters… in many cases, ahead of Framber. Of note, Brown leads pitchers with a 1.82 ERA and a 3.9 WAR (best among pitchers); Framber has 2 CGs and a 3.3 WAR. Umm, and 13 QS himself.
If I’d told you three months ago that Josh Hader would be the bullpen anchor, lead the league in saves, and games finished, you might have scoffed and said, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”
Yet here he is, tied for MLB’s perfect save streak at 22 straight, with a ridiculous 0.72 WHIP and a 13.73 K/9 mark—not to mention an 8.43 K/BB ratio (which is double that of 2024).
If I’d told you three months ago that Jeremy Peña would bounce back offensively and be the Astros’ MVP for the first half, you’d probably have snickered and said, “that’s cute, did he get traded to the Rockies?”
Yet he’s batting .322/.378/.489—leading the Astros in average and OPS—and would be the team’s MVP for the first half of 2025.
If I’d told you three months ago that Spencer Arrighetti’s rookie momentum would come to a sudden halt, you might have said, “Season over—we’ve got no margin for error in the rotation.”
And, he’s been shut down since April with a broken thumb and placed on the 60-day IL—his campaign on pause, but other guys have stepped up.
If I’d told you three months ago that the Astros’ outfield depth would be tested and two infielders would play the bulk of the games at the corners, you’d have shaken your head and mumbled something under your breath about Joe Espada that wasn’t complimentary.
Yet there’s José Altuve in left and Cam Smith tearing up right field while five different players vie for time at second base.
If I’d told you three months ago that Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski would pitch a combined 17 games, then be lost—and pitchers like Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter would be regulars—you’d probably have changed the subject and asked Dan to start writing about the Texans.
Yet there they are, plugging away with solid numbers while Lance McCullers Jr. tries to find his game.
If I’d told you three months ago that Cam Smith would skip AAA and seamlessly step into the right field vacancy, you’d argue amongst yourselves all the reasons he should start at AAA. In fact, that was the argument back in March!
Yet he’s started 67 games, hitting .285/.355/.430 with 13 doubles, 7 homers and 35 RBI, and ranks among MLB’s top defensive RFs—quietly taking over for Kyle Tucker.
You’d say, “Cam who?” Now you know.
If I’d told you three months ago that Houston would be in first place by seven games and own the second-best record in the majors, despite being without Arrighetti, Yordan, Blanco—and that Christian Walker and Jose Altuve had not picked up the slack—you’d be wondering if I’d been hit in the head with a foul ball.
Yet here we are, hitting on most every cylinder, and the “next-man-up” has been in play all season. Houston hasn’t had a losing month in 2025 (19-7 in June), is 18-7 in one-run games, 5-1 in extras and 17-12 in interleague play.
You’d be right to say that we are living in a bizarre baseball world.
If I’d told you three months ago that no Astro position player would start the All-Star Game, you might’ve shrugged and said, “Yeah, I can see that.”
And you might be right this year. There was a time when Houston dominated the All Star lineup, but with Pena injured, only Paredes may be an option from position players. Never you mind though—Framber, Hunter, and Hader should all be there, and either of the first two could be the AL starter.
If I’d told you three months ago that Dana Brown would be heading into July on a mission for the trade deadline, you may have wondered which players he’d be trading away (as a seller).
Yet here we are, and Houston is a buyer with clear needs on both sides of the ball.
If I’d told you three months ago that Joe Espada was on the hot seat (or at least that his seat was warm), I’d have had a lot of takers.
Yet here he is as the leading candidate for Manager of the Year at the midpoint of the season. I’m wondering…how many of you have jumped on the Espada train since the end of April?
A Few Other Notes.
- Josh Hader has moved into the Top 10 in Astros’ all-time saves. He needs just 18 more this season to climb into the Top 5 behind Billy Wagner, Dave Smith, Brad Lidge, and Ryan Pressly.
- Houston holds a seven-game lead (as of July 3). That’s massive—bigger than their biggest leads in all of 2023 (2.5) and 2024 (6). You have to go back to 2022, when they led by 18 games on Sept. 27, to find a bigger cushion at any point int he season.
- The Astros are 18-7 in one-run games and 5-1 in extras, showing real grit—and maybe even some luck.
- Houston is back to .500 on the road (20-20). That means the team is playing about .700 ball at home. Keep that up and a win total in the upper 90s is in play. Who’d’ve thunk that three months ago?
This season has defied logic, beaten the odds, and made a few people eat their words (are you one of those?). And we’re only halfway through.
Your Turn: Let’s Talk Astros
- Who’s your Astros MVP at the halfway point?
- Are you ready to proclaim Cam Smith as the next Jeff Bagwell? Trade, and all?
- Should Dana Brown make only a few tweaks or a blockbuster?
- What has surprised you the most about this team so far?
- What did you roll your eyes at in April… and now totally believe? Come on, be honest.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
21 responses to “If I’d Told You Three Months Ago…”
Great write up Chip.
I’ll say we are mincing here and we should just count ourselves lucky to have both Framber and Hunter – but yes Hunter is the clear number one. I know they both have 13 QS but Hunter also has 3 more starts where he didn’t get to the 6th inning but gave up 0 or 1 run. He has had one “bad” start all year, where he gave up 5 in 5 innings to Tampa and we lost the game 8-4. The team is 13-4 in his starts, but could easily be 16-1 with any real offensive help. In those 4 losses he gave up a combined 8 ER, 5 of those in 1 game. The other 3 losses the team had in his starts he gave up a combined 3 ER.
Framber has been fabulous as well, but he has 3 “hiccup” games. All numbers aside though I love Framber. He is exactly what I’m looking for in a pitcher. I don’t want 99mph and 126 K’s in 102 innings. Thats exactly why Hunter gets to the 6th, and rarely the 7th and even more rarely the 8th. You want to get decisions or affect games more, you are obviously a better pitcher than the guys in the pen, so quit expecting them to have to pick up 12 outs for you, limit them to 9 or even 6 outs. Gets you closer to Hader and Abreu without having to go through anyone else. Now, our anyone elses have been great so far, but there are lessons in Montero and Scott. Great for 25 innings so far this year doesn’t mean great for the next 25.
None of that means though I’m ready to say give Framber a 5/185 deal. I won’t hate it, but 3 years from now I don’t think he will be what he is today.
As for my questions – Hunter Brown is the MVP so far.
No, we didn’t get Cam for Larry Andersen. We gave up a potential (I think he will be) HoFer. But Cam is an athlete. I think it was Dan that said yesterday that he has taken to RF. I would say Cam Smith is a ball player. He would have taken to 3B, 2B, CF, LF, where ever he plays, he will take too. He is growing as a hitter. We are lucky to have him. If Jacob Wilson didn’t exist he would runaway with the RoY. He might still be able to pass him given that people are going to know Wilson hit .360+ at home in a wiffle ball park.
I’m a fan. I love blockbusters. If I woke up one morning and found that he made “that” trade where he sent half the system to Pittsburgh for Skeene, I would be over the moon. I just don’t expect it. I’m not even sure he “needs” to make a move. Our IL is packed. Certainly some of those 15 names will be contributors down the stretch run.
The bullpen is the most surprising. Who knew. Yesterday they were handed a 3 run lead to get through 9 outs. And they used Okert, Ort and Sousa to do it. And it went exactly the way Espada hoped it would. With those 3. Who would be calling that shot?
There is a lot to that last question. I would roll my eyes to the statement “this is a good bullpen.” In April I may have spit my coffee out on that one. If you said Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter would become above average contributors, I would have rolled my eyes. Jeremy Pena hitting .322? I would have bet against that any day.
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My immediate reaction was to wonder what would Tucker need to do to make the HOF? Remember he’s competing against the Trouts, Judges, Acuna, and Ohtanis of the league. Then I wondered whether he might be more likely to reach 3000 hits than Altuve? Into his age 28 season, Tucker now has 708 hits and 142 HR. Through age 28, Altuve had 1,419 hits and 97 HR. Altuve in his age 35 season now has 2,315 hits and 242 HR. This is cherry picking, but I don’t think Tucker is going to make the HOF. I don’t think he even catches Altuve in hits and a milestone number seems out of reach for HR. I think a better question is how close can he get to Lance Berkman’s 1905 hits and 366 HR.
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Hi Chip,
It has been a remarkable year. In some ways I’ve been appreciating this group more than any other Astro club. I can’t help but to second guess them, but they keep proving me wrong.
I can’t say anything to negatively reflecting on Framber. Far as I’m concerned, we’ve got two aces. But Hunter has been putting up excellent stats since the middle of last year. I think his second half ERA was 2.26. And his performance during our brief post season appearance last year was really our only bright spot. He’s simply continued his late 2024 excellence and fine tuned it.
Hader has been great, but he has had a couple of seasons where his performance has been similar. Can he do it for the entire season?
Too bad Pena has had his breakout season interrupted. My question is whether or not he can continue where he left off when we get him back.
I’m not fully sold on Spencer yet. But I sure do want him back. I’m just not ready to anoint him a savior.
Joe gets too much grief when his team does not perform. I’m glad he’s getting some recognition for keeping this club together regardless of who he has available to pencil in. But if this club was 34-52 right now, it would be a huge surprise. And yes, I’d probably hold him partially responsible. But I would blame Dana.
Yes, I was completely and unashamedly wrong about Cam Smith. Gosh, I love watching him line a ball to right with a guy on second or third.
Walker, Altuve, and please add Yanier to that list. He’s the guy I’m probably most disappointed in. But I can’t help but to think all three guys will have a better second half.
Now for your real questions.
I don’t have an MVP. I’m not big on individual awards. If I had to give one out, it would be for being the team that has most over performed in MLB YTD.
Cam Smith has more tools than Jeff Bagwell. Great attitude. Intuitive. We’ll see, but we’ve certainly got a keeper.
I don’t know who Dana might trade to help create a blockbuster. Pena, Cam, Yanier? I sure doubt it. Framber? Even though he’s likely got just three months left as an Astro, I’d still fall off my chair. I’ll be impressed if Dana can improve the club. Would he trade Brice Matthews? Alimber Santa? Ullola? Chas?
I thought the pen could be a real weakness this year. And then how much fortitude they’ve shown. I was not particularly surprised when Whitcomb hit a homer the other night. That stuff just keeps happening.
Frenchie is the guy I most roll my eyes at when he’s at the plate. And there are certainly others. But now he’s indispensable at short. It’s not about totally believing or not. The guy, like most others on this club have taken turns producing in essential moments. They all play a role at some point.
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I wrote: If this club was 34 and 52 right now it would be a huge surprise. I meant to write it would NOT be a huge surprise.
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I cannot believe that Dana Brown still has Trammell on the team and even more unbelievable is that Espada starts him against the Dodgers!
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Morning sargeh, I think Trammell goes as soon as someone else comes back. We don’t need a lefty bat that can’t hit.
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If I told you: The Astros would beat the Dodgers 18-1 in game one, would you have believed me?
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No, but I got to see it with my own eyes. There are games where everything goes wrong and those where everything goes right. This one was the latter.
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1oldpro, they’ve never gotten beaten that bad at their home park. But our guys have to come out and string together hits again tonight, and we really need Framber to give us one of his gems. The Dodgers might be a bit pissed off this evening, so we need to shut them down early. Ohtani is scheduled throw two innings, followed by the lefty Wrobleski. If we can get into there pen early again, that would be a good thing.
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Jason Alexander came in to pitch the seventh inning with a huge lead. He pitched all three innings without giving up a run and got a save in an 18-1 win. What he saved was the rest of the bullpen.
Maybe the dodger fans will continue to treat Altuve poorly again tonight and piss off the Astros hitters again.
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Can the Astros put Humpty Dumpty back together? Again!
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/07/astros-re-sign-tayler-scott-to-minor-league-deal.html
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And the Dodgers just can’t handle being beat by the Astros. What a bunch of BS from Hershiser! https://www.foxnews.com/sports/dodgers-broadcaster-orel-hershiser-brings-up-astros-sign-stealing-scandal-houstons-historic-rout-over-la
Absolutely without class.
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He has never had class.
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Bible thumpers that don’t act like Christians don’t impress me.
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The Astros have resigned Hector Neris and he is with the Astros in LA!
My question is… WHY????!!!!!
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Morning Sarge, I’m guessing because Dubin is done and the only other options are Alexander and Weems. Things are thin down on the farm right now. I don’t know what Hector can do at this point besides be a nice guy, but we’ll find out.
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Costanza 2.0 has been pitching pretty well and Neris has not. But do they think their alchemists can fix Tayler Scott and Neris. It’s really not costing them much to try.
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Another “W” tonight. Framber didn’t have his best stuff but it was enough. The 4 run 3rd inning was a key with a couple of insurance runs to help. The BP came through again although a little shaky but it was enough. How about a sweep for tomorrow.
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Our Astros are 7-1 against the three division leaders in what is supposed to be the “tougher” NL since June 24. That’s impressive.
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Thanks Chip for another fun read – it is helping me out a ton this season.
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For the last three weeks I kept up with the score of the Astros game on my phone, almost always with amazement as it ends up with an Astros victory. Then I go online and try to figure out how this team could be doing it and it seems like it is a different hero bringing the Astros a win. So many of the big names have gone on to other teams and prospects who are not raved about by anyone come up to the Astros and seem to blend into a team that keeps on delivering beyond most expectations, including mine.
All I can say is that winning at the major league level for this team seems to be contagious, and when our injured players return, they may rejoin a team that is better than the one they had when they went down.
I’m anticipating that our #1 prospect might become a vital part of the 2026 Astros and add his name to the hat for 2026 ROY the way Smith has this season. That is a good way to add extra draft picks.
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