Astros’ 2025: 10 questions for you

It just feels like it is time to pass along some questions to our loyal readers…

  1. Knowing what you know now would you have been OK with a straight up trade of Kyle Tucker for Cam Smith?
    • Have to admit that the idea for this came from a discussion on the 610 radio this morning. But the base question is great – has Cam shown enough that years of control of him would be better than one year of Tucker?
  2. What is the biggest surprise to you in the bullpen crew?
  3. What is the biggest surprise to you in the starting rotation?
  4. What is a bigger surprise? Note – WAR numbers taken from baseballreference.com
  5. What is a bigger surprise?
  6. Who is doing a better managing job in the AL than Joe Espada (47-33)? A.J. Hinch (50-31)? Anyone else?
  7. What is a bigger surprise?
    • The Astros being 5-1 in extra inning games.
      • They have traditionally been bad with the Manfred rule including 6-10 last year
    • The Astros being 16-7 in one run games
      • Last year they were a poor 18-27
      • They were good last year (46-25) but that’s only a 92 win pace
    • The Astros being 29-13 (The equivalent of a 111 win pace) at home
  8. If you were the Astros GM Dana Brown heading towards the deadline, would you trade for…
    • A solid #3 starter to solidify their rotation for the playoffs?A right hand reliever to offset their overly lefty (4 of them) bullpen? When have we ever said that?A solid left handed bat who could move between the outfield and first base?
    • Other?
  9. Who does Joe Espada need to sit a little (or lot) more?
  10. Who does Joe Espada need to play a little more?

So, what do you think?

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35 responses to “Astros’ 2025: 10 questions for you”

    1. I have to go with Cam Smith due to the fact that he will be around the Astros squad for a few years going forward. We all know that Tucker would have left at the end of this season.
    2. Sousa has been my biggest surprise. Where did he come from??? (sarcasm)
    3. Gordon has been my biggest surprise. See number two above.
    4. Pena in the top three. Walker in the bottom three.
    5. The Astros being 47-33, second-best record in the AL and tied for third-best in the MLB after everything that has happened to them. I had moved from my original prediction of 91 wins, at the start of the season, to predicting 81 wins.
    6. I feel AJ Hinch is the better manager at this point of the season. Sure, he has some good players from the draft, like he did when he was in Houston, but I still don’t like Espada’s bullpen usage.
    7. The Astros being 5-1 in extra inning games.
    8. Other. Trade for a front line pitcher to replace the departing Valdez.
    9. Sit Walker more.
    10. Play Caratini more.

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    1. Without seeing into the future my answer is that I would not have done a straight up trade of Cam for Tucker. My justification is that Cam Smith has a .734 OPS and Jake Meyers has a .766 OPS. Who here would have accepted Jake Meyers straight up for one season of Tucker?
      2, 3: no right answer
    2. Pena. He’s not this good of a hitter, but I hope he keeps it up.
    3. As much as I complain about players not performing in their high salary years the answer is that I’m not surprised.
    4. Espada and it’s not close.
    5. The home record
    6. As of now I’d say a reliever. Postseason games are moving towards 3IP by the starter anyhow.
    7. Rodgers. I advocated for him because his defense was supposed to balance the offense. It’s not.
    8. No wrong answer here. Whitcomb / Dezenzo / fill in the blank will never be an option if they don’t get some experience at this level.

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  4. I watch these games and then I get up and walk around a bit, shaking my head. It’s rare to watch any club with so many deficiencies (at least on paper) keep winning so many baseball games so efficiently!

    I keep thinking it can’t keep up. But now we’re starting to close in on the All Star break with a pretty good lead. And some of the calvary might be on the way before long. So even with a stumble over the next couple of weeks, we’ll likely be able to absorb it. I’ve had fun watching this club, but my stomach does not feel the same way.

    Dan, I’ll respond to your post in the morning with coffee in hand, as the neighborhood monkey troop is raiding the mango tree.

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    1. Glad we didn’t have to see that happen.
    2. Bennett Sousa
    3. Ryan Gusto
    4. Keeping it positive – top three
    5. That 47 – 33 win/loss rate
    6. Espada
    7. 16 – 7 in one run games considering the past results
    8. LH bat
    9. It won’t happen with Walker or Altuve so Brendan Rogers
    10. Caratini

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    1. No! You had to get a lot for Tucker and we did. Cam is good, but Cam plus Isaac has been great.
    2. All three relievers have surprised me equally. Just outstanding work by our GM to get these guys.
    3. I would say Gusto has been the biggest surprise of the three. I thought Gordon could be a sleeper, but he has delivered more than I figured.
    4. I never figured Altuve, Walker and Alvarez would be so bad. Ever!
    5. The overall record is the most surprising. On our way to dinner Sunday evening I spoke to my girl and commented a little about how the Astros were winning. I said “smoke and mirrors” and I meant it. She looked over at me and smiled. It’s the kind of stuff that keeps us going with our team as we see one favorite player after another walk off for huge amounts of money somewhere else.
    6. Espada! I couldn’t care less about Hinch or his team until we get to the ALCS.
    7. One run games. I didn’t think we had the kind of pitching to go 18-6 in one-run games.
    8. Right now I think that solid LH bat would be nice.

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    1. Cam because of control and potential – makes the trade very lopsided.
    2. All of them
    3. Gusto because the other two had a better minor league record
    4. Bottom 3 for sure
    5. Astros being above the Yankees and with striking distance of Detroit
    6. Espada because of the injuries but Hinch will probably win if Detroit keeps it up
    7. 16-7
    8. Given that DB has a mandate to stay under the penalty, probably the bullpen
    9. Altuve – he’s 35
    10. Shay Whitcomb

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    1. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves or Cam comparing him to KT. Tucker is hitting .287 with a .395 OBP and a .527 SLG. He is one of the best defensive RFers in the game. He has more walks than strikeouts. He has added 19 SBs with 1 CS. He is a complete package. Cam has all that in potential. But he is no Kyle Tucker. And it wouldn’t even be fair to expect he will be. “Years of control” is thinking like a GM, I’m a fan. Years of control is completely up to the franchise. They could have offered something to Tucker 3 years ago that would have been hard to say no too. They chose not to. I would rather have KT and a franchise that can operate like the Dodgers. Now would I rather have Cam and Isaac over KT, maybe. Isaac is the one I actually like more. Power and eye.
    2. Okert. Because I don’t know how he gets guys out. Really I don’t know how King does either. Sousa, I get. When an electric arm starts throwing strikes, it can work. But King and Okert do it by not throwing bad pitches, and not walking that many. They live on a fine line.
    3. Gordon – because his command, seeing it now, suggests to me that he should have been the first one up. I think the guy is a fixture in the rotation for years to come because he throws strikes and makes so few mistake pitches. He’ll never be a Brown or Framber, the stuff just isn’t there, but dude can be a 4/5 starter in the big leagues for a long time and have a decent career.
    4. Pena is obviously the biggest surprise. I never suspected the batting average, I always thought his “blossoming” would be becoming a 35-40 HR guy. But I have to give Meyers some flowers. Now, he isn’t slugging, there are a lot of seeing eye ground balls happening, but a part of that is his new found aggressiveness attacking the baseball as a hitter, and doing that while maintaining good plate discipline, something he has always kind of had, but maintaining that while really attacking the ball has given him the uptick in EV he needed to find some of those holes. So I’ll take the hitters. Walker is surprising, there are starting to be some indicators from statcast that he is struggling to catch fastballs. Altuve has a 1.5 oWAR, but his terrible defense is no surprise to anyone. Yordan being injured is also no surprise.

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  9. Good morning,

    1. Absolutely not. Had Dana done a deal for Cam and Tucker straight up, he might have been run out of town. Let’s wait another year to see if the other parts (mostly power) in Cams game develop.
    2. King, Okert, Souza, all of the above.
    3. Brandon Walter because he can in and got outs out of nowhere. But he also still the biggest wildcard. What does he do tonight against the Cubs? Honorable mention goes to Colton. The Astros are 6-2 in his starts.
    4. Definitely Altuve, Alvarez, Walker and throw in Diaz for good measure.
    5. Both are surprises that are hard to fathom. We’re getting spectacular pitching from so many different, unheralded sources. I guess it’s true, great pitching is better than inept hitting!
    6. Hinch is a spineless rat with more talent. But the BBWAA will come full circle and forget the Hinch past before voting for anything to do with the Astros. Still half a season to go though. Plenty more to come. Plenty. That can’t be overemphasized.
    7. All of the above. I don’t want to burst anyones bubble, but all those number have to adjust at some point.
    8. Yesterday I was saying that we need a reliable starter. Today I’m back to a left-handed bat at second base. A guy that will hit against righties. I keep watching Christian Walker get stuck in no-mans land at first base. Too many plays where he does not know when to go for the ball or cover the bag. I think that’s partially due to having three or four guys playing second. He has too many different guys playing next to him. It’s not intuitive. But our pitchers are consistently getting off the mound too slow also. That triangle is the weakest part of our good infield defense.
    9. I don’t think sitting Walker will make him hit. But Altuve looks ragged in all parts of his game. Brandon Rodgers should not return. What does he do?
    10. Joe does not want to wear Victor out. One of the good things about leading the division by 6.5 games is that Joe is not yet forced to make difficult decisions about Walker and Diaz. Got to keep playing them and hope they finally wake up. Wouldn’t that be helpful? For now, I’d play Guillorme more at second against right handed pitching.

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  10. On to the rest of the story –

    6. Espada. He took over a franchise that lost 3/5th of its rotation, then lost 3/5ths of the replacements. He is getting guys in spots they can succeed. One run games are an indicator of how well a manager “gets” his roster. He had some growing to do last year as the head man. He is clearly made for the job. We’ll always have moments where we think he shoulda went with that guy in the 7th or done this in the 8th (example, I would have not pitched King last night, that might have cost Hunter the W). But overall, he has been a great drum major.

    7. All those numbers are stats they probably have a regression to the mean coming. That’s why it’s important to not to think we are set, but pursue an upgrade or two.

    8. A lefty hitting LF that can hit tough pitching. Doesn’t have to be a superstar, or a ton of pop, just a decent average against righties guy that also won’t be strikeout fodder in the playoffs against Cy Young caliber pitching.

    9. Can’t sit Walker. Or Altuve. Bats are too important. Rodgers should already be released. Trammell can also go, he has no role on this team since he isn’t the answer to 8.

    10. Oh man Shay Whitcomb where you have gone. Guy has done everything in the minors he can. Joe has no confidence in him. He is behind a lot of people on the depth chart. He would be better off in another town where 3B is a problem and he can get an opportunity.

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    • Finding that lefty bat and finding a place to put that lefty bat is a real conundrum. LF and 2B are the only places to hide Altuve. Maybe DH every now and then is still an option, as it seems Yordan has been spending time in left over the past week, running and throwing. Maybe it means nothing. Ultimately, if we get that lefty bat, the only solution for Jose is 2B when a righty is on the mound. And that means he might put up a -3.0 dWAR on the season. These issues are just another indication of how well Espada has managed the constantly changing 13 guys he has to work with.

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    • Earlier in the week, one of the producers for local sports talk here mentioned something you were surely aware of. The Mets had dropped another game to the Braves and were in the midst of a 1-10 stretch. After winning the last two games, NYM are now 48-34 on the season. I think this points to just how good a job Espada has done this year. As Chip pointed out, the team will drop a game here or there but are winning just about every series they are in. That’s how you get to the postseason. What happens with the Mets? Well, I personally think they’re a dysfunctional lot prone to streaky baseball. I have always had the opinion for an MLB team, no matter how bad the roster your team should be able to play baseball approaching .500 if the players are invested in winning.

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  11. 9 &10. Sit Walker more an play Caratini more.

    Until we get more LH hitters in the lineup, teams will continue to roll out RH starting pitchers against us.

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  12. Back to a separate issue. We’ve played half the season. Jose Altuve has a -0.4 combined WAR. If you look at his Baseball Savant stats broken out, both offensively and defensively, it’s hard to find anything positive.

    This would not happen in 2025, but going forward, what are the chances he becomes a part time player on a team getting younger all around him, despite his quest for 3000 hits?

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    • I’ve said it before – but I think that Altuve and his agent structured the contract the way they did so that by the end of year 3 most of the money will have been paid. It will not surprise me if he retires at 36 and moves on in life.

      I know watching his at bats right now are painful – it seems he goes out of the zone, and I mean pitches that statcast would call “uncompetitive” pitches by the pitcher – just going after them too much. I don’t know if his read time is disappearing before our eyes and he is starting to “cheat” to get out in front of it a little, and the result is just some bad swings, or if he is still there physically and pressing. Pitcher makes a mistake to him middle up or middle in he still makes them pay – but the rest of it, he looks very “gettable” to a pitcher.

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    • His 2024 stats aren’t a whole lot better than his 2025 stats and he had a bref oWAR of 4.8 last year compared to 0.9 this year. The differences are getting hits in about 1 more out of every 30 AB and stealing more bases. His slugging is also down a little thanks to fewer doubles, but statistically that’s related to the fewer hits thing. The stolen bases may or may not be influenced by where he is hitting in the lineup and team strategy. His performance will likely continue to drop off. At the same time, look around the league and see guys like Mookie Betts (32) putting up a .728 OPS for LAD with 7 more years of $30M to 35M on his contract after this one and maybe you’ll feel a little better.

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      • Devin, Mookie is someone’s else’s problem, but he’s got a 2.7 WAR today because he can still play defense. Speaking of Jose, he’s on pace to have a negative WAR on the 2025 season. Hopefully his bat will heat up, but he’s not going to get better defensively going forward. He’s 35. He had a solid positive 3.4 combined WAR last year. That’s a huge fall off, both offensively and defensively. So do you want to see him play every day next year in that quest for 3000 hits if he continues his decline?

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      • Dave, back in the spring I suggested we’d see Altuve pulled for defensive substitutions late in the game and you disagreed with me. We’re seeing it. I have no illusions as to whether his defense is as good as Betts’ who is 3 years younger. The point is about the money and what’s owed. We have yet to see a big contract in Houston really benefit the team. I don’t want to see Altuve play 162 games as he clearly can’t do that at age 35 and beyond. I’d rather see Altuve in his decline chasing 3000 than Luis Guillorme or Brendan Rodgers with the caveat that Espada should be smart as to when to rest him, when to pull him for performance reasons, and when to let someone else play the field.

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  13. Love all the responses – have enjoyed reading them…

    • Sarge – Your number 5. answer is an interesting one. This is a team that we would have expected to have a below average June after the injury fairy doubled down – thus your thought they would have gone from 91 wins to 81 wins – but instead they have had the best June in the majors.
    • Devin – that additional bullpen arm for the playoffs is an interesting take. Of course when you get to the playoffs and only need 4 starters with days off – means a couple starters could help out the bullpen (but they are not always built to do that).
    • Z – I like you going positive on question 4 – too easy to dump on the ones who already know they are disappointing us
    • OP – Yes, it is smoke and mirrors, but also – they have convinced themselves they are going to win and that is a powerful force even greater than having all your injured back from the IL.
    • William – welcome – I know you do comment off and on and we appreciate it when you do join the discussion. I like your reason for picking Gusto for question 3. We look at minor league numbers and then a guy comes up and surprises us (up or down). In truth we are judging prospects with barely anything but an occasional highlight to base it on.
    • Steven – the Cam vs KT thing is a fascinating discussion. Personally, I am resigned to the Astros not re-signing or extending their guys. Of course, they have dabbled a bit – Altuve which looks very problematic for the length of that contract, Javier who almost immediately went down and Yordan, who has brought value but whose injuries have brought concern.
    • Daveb – ironic that they might punish the current manager Espada who showed up as a coach in 2018 rather than Hinch who was actually here 2017. Yes, there was a small amount of cheating in 2018 before they finally stopped it, but Hinch knew it was happening and did not do what was required to stop it.

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  14. Thoughts

    • I don’t have the knowledge to track this, but I would totally doubt the Astros ever swept a 3-game series scoring 5 runs total.
    • I was “watching” the businessman’s special on my computer yesterday and I just knew “The Kid” was going to get that clutch hit in the eighth. Gave me tingles when he came through.
    • Hunter Brown had a no decision in his 3rd start of the season (6 inning – 0 runs) – a game the bullpen lost 7-6. Then he did not have a no decision until 4 starts ago. He has had four no decisions in a row (all Astro wins). He went 5.1 IP – 1 run / 7 IP – 1 run/ 5 IP – 1 run / 7 IP – 0 runs. His 8-3 record could easily be 13-3 at this point.
    • Loved how Abreu came in and stopped the 8th inning rally and gave the Phils no breathing room in the 9th with 4 straight strike outs.
    • The Astros will likely be making a huge addition/upgrade before the trade deadline adding a big left handed bat. Yordan Alvarez – God willing.

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  15. Good morning,

    Brandon Walter is turning into a real story. I’ll bet there are a few Red Sox fans that would like to know why their organization could not coax what the Astros have from Walter. He worked his way around a heck of a line up last night.

    I’m not ready to give up on Ort yet either. He’s got good stuff, just does not know where it’s going all the time. Can a 33 year old with a big arm be tamed? The walk screwed up his inning. The double was of the seeing eye variety.

    It was so good to see those two big three run shots from Cam and Yanier. I sure hope our bats give Lance some cushion tonight.

    I’m not sure about our new third base coach when he’s directing traffic over there. Tucker at least has an accurate arm, and Paredes, already slow, is just getting over the hammy problem.

    Trammell might be better off turning down the amps a notch or two. It might not help, but at 27, he’s not very polished in any area.

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  16. Thoughts

    Off the bat I did not think Yainer’s homer was a homer – low angle but a ton of carry

    Cam’s was a long moon shot looked gone when he connected

    Sorry we had to use Hader last night but just two pitches

    Getting a lot of mileage out of Walter, Gordon and Gusto – not just quality but decent length outings. That will be the thing to watch with Lance tonight

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  17. Well, that didn’t take long!

    Tampa Bay has DFA’d Forrest Whitley only two weeks after acquiring him from the Astros. Of course, I’m sure his 15.43 ERA in 4 2/3 IP over 5 games didn’t endear him very much.

    Someone else will undoubtedly take a flyer on him though. Even if they don’t, he can take the $4 million he’s been paid and make a life out of it.

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  18. Well, it’s a shame, but maybe he just had too much success early without having to really work for it and then was not prepared to work hard enough to play with the best ball players on the planet.

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    • I think he dropped the bag early in his career and then couldn’t get past the injury issues to become the pitcher they hoped he would. We’ve seen a few guys overcome wildness and harness their ability but he was just too inconsistent when on the mound. Still, there are certainly options out there for him that don’t exist for normal folk like you and me.

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  19. The Astros had the type of game last night that I’ve been expecting. Tampa Bay, a good team, lost 22-8 on Friday night. Sometimes it’s just wise to fold early. Joe Espada correctly did not want to jeopardize two games last night. Today we’ll have Framber and a full compliment of our best relievers with the hope of winning yet another series against another first place team.

    Right now the club has the luxury of giving Lance McCullers his turn in the rotation. But hopefully, Joe will have other options returning, maybe as early as late July along with our trio of AAA saviors. Lance does not have enough quality pitches to throw right now. When he can get them over the plate, the slider, sinker and change are too hittable. And it seems that gone are the days of his unhittable curveball and four seamer that would freeze batters when everything was working. Those pitches are rarely used by Lance today

    LJM is great competitor. I appreciate that he handles his position so well, a rare thing for an Astro pitcher. We might not find out until next year if he can be a guy we need to fill a role in the rotation. He obviously does not want to pitch out of the pen. And right now, he does not throw enough strikes to help in the pen regardless. Lance is just one more issue for Joe to manage. He’s got to try and help McCullers become successful again, but not at the expensive of the team.

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  20. The Astros had the type of game last night that I’ve been expecting. Tampa Bay, a good team, lost 22-8 on Friday night. Sometimes it’s just wise to fold early. Joe Espada correctly did not want to jeopardize two games last night. Today we’ll have Framber and a full compliment of our best relievers with the hope of winning yet another series against another first place team.

    Right now the club has the luxury of giving Lance McCullers his turn in the rotation. But hopefully, Joe will have other options returning, maybe as early as late July along with our trio of AAA saviors. Lance does not have enough quality pitches to throw right now. When he can get them over the plate, the slider, sinker and change are too hittable. And it seems that gone are the days of his unhittable curveball and four seamer that would freeze batters when everything was working. Those pitches are rarely used by Lance today

    LJM is great competitor. I appreciate that he handles his position so well, a rare thing for an Astro pitcher. We might not find out until next year if he can be a guy we need to fill a role in the rotation. He obviously does not want to pitch out of the pen. And right now, he does not throw enough strikes to help in the pen regardless. Lance is just one more issue for Joe to manage. He’s got to try and help McCullers become successful again, but not at the expensive of the team.

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    • I recall going to games in the dome where the Cubs fans outnumbered our Astros faithful. From the highlights that seemed to be the case last night as well. At the same time, there were a lot of home town fans cheering for Tucker and I don’t really blame them. It’s not his fault he wants to get paid like the other players in the league. I’m still glad we’re (hopefully) not going to be debating the merits of his contract 5 years from now.

      Spot on about not blowing two games trying to salvage one. The Astros are going well and there is no reason to overreact. We’ve got a couple weeks until the AS break and may as well try not to limp into it.

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  21. Thoughts

    • When Lance had that horrible inning last night my brother asked me if he was tipping his pitches. I don’t know enough to say that. Looking back – it was not like he was grooving his pitches except for Tucker’s home run pitch. The first two homers were inside off the plate – the singles were middle of the plate but at the bottom of the zone. I’m guessing just not enough movement.
    • Cam – two games against the team that traded him away and two big wallop home runs. Sending a message?
    • Tucker had a great game – hitting – on the bases – power – in the field. I had kind of forgotten how he doesn’t look like he’s moving that fast but covers a ton of ground in right field with that stride of his. I can’t wish him poorly – he is making himself a big contract this off season.
    • At one point I was wishing Gusto had started the game
    • OK – just one game and the Mariners lost. Cmon boys – take the series.

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  22. I really appreciate how impressive Framber has been against some very difficult opponents. Might he be a post season performer this year? Overall, the pitching remains almost incredible. It won’t always look so easy. I think someone mentioned yesterday the Astros have nine or ten shutouts combined. Bryan Abreu dominated the Cubs for two innings on Sunday. They did not seem to have a chance against him. Hader looked like an automatic. Those two guys got nine straight outs, five of them K’s, nothing hit hard, against an excellent offense.

    I don’t know about the Cedric Mullins “rumors”. Never thought I’d say this, but if we send Jose back to second base, then I’m thinking we can do a better job covering left field with in house guys, unless Dana can bring us more than a Mullins. I’d start by putting Chas out there most days, giving him a shot to get back into a groove. That’s our best outfield defensively. And if healthy, I think he’ll still hit enough with pretty good pitch recognition. But alas, Chas is one guy that could be gone in a few weeks.

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  23. I really appreciate how impressive Framber has been against some very difficult opponents. Might he be a post season performer this year? Overall, the pitching remains almost incredible. It won’t always look so easy. I think someone mentioned yesterday the Astros have nine or ten shutouts combined. Bryan Abreu dominated the Cubs for two innings on Sunday. They did not seem to have a chance against him. Hader looked like an automatic. Those two guys got nine straight outs, five of them K’s, nothing hit hard, against an excellent offense.

    I don’t know about the Cedric Mullins “rumors”. Never thought I’d say this, but if we send Jose back to second base, then I’m thinking we can do a better job covering left field with in house guys, unless Dana can bring us more than a Mullins. I’d start by putting Chas out there most days, giving him a shot to get back into a groove. That’s our best outfield defensively. And if healthy, I think he’ll still hit enough with pretty good pitch recognition. But alas, Chas is one guy that could be gone in a few weeks.

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    • Unless the O’s pick up almost all of the remaining salary we can’t afford him. Honestly, it looks to me like one of those trades where someone thinks a change of scenery will magically turn someone around. I’d rather stay the course at this point. Besides, for October I’m more worried about lefties (Fried, Rodon, Skubal) than getting left-handed bats into the lineup.

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    • Well, we’ve got a solid defensive guy for short. And if we can just hang on until the AS break, I think we’ll hit quite a bit better in the second half. Next man up!

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