Astros’ offense: Position by position

The Astros offense had been the biggest worry early in the season. As the Astros went on a better run lately — 15-5 in the last 20 games — the offense has been a more positive than negative force. But with the “extension” of Yordan Alvarez’s time on the IL, and the possible loss of Isaac Paredes, the offense is back on the worry list.

How has the offense been doing, by position, in comparison to the rest of the American League. Let’s take a look at the cumulative key stats for players at each position.

Catcher – Yainer Diaz (47 starts) / Victor Caratini (23 starts)

.282 BA.327 OBP.786 OPS35 runs11 HRs34 RBIs
2nd in AL5th3rd3rd5th4th

These stats surprised me a bit. I think that the very slow start to the season for Diaz, camouflaged the fact that he is back hitting well and Caratini has been a very good backup to this point. While it felt like they would be somewhere towards the middle in the league, they are in the upper third and rising.

First Base – Christian Walker (68 starts), Caratini (1 start), Zach Dezenzo (1 start)

.225 BA.288 OBP.666 OPS31 runs9 HRs34 RBIs
13th in AL13th13th9th7th6th

This category is obviously all Christian Walker. And yes, his slash stats (BA/OBP/OPS) are bad. But surprisingly his run producing numbers (runs scored and runs batted in) are decent and not reflective of his base stats. He needs to continue the improvement he has had lately and pull those slash numbers up to non-flinching levels.

Second Base – Brendan Rodgers (31 starts)/ Mauricio Dubon (22 starts) / Jose Altuve (16 starts) / Shay Whitcomb (1 start)

.221 BA.282 OBP.578 OPS28 runs3 HRs21 RBIs
13th in AL13th13th8th13th11th

Lordy, lordy Astro fans are just not used to these kinds of numbers at what has been a premium position for them with Jose Altuve manning it almost exclusively for the decade plus before this season. For instance, just last season, the Astros 2nd basemen were 1st in all three slash stats (.291 BA/ .344 OBP/ .774 OPS) on the back of Altuve. This year they are bad to very bad and that is being driven by bad hitting seasons by Rodgers and Dubon.

Shortstop – Jeremy Pena (68 starts) / Dubon (2 starts)

.335 BA.386 OBP.884 OPS41 Runs9 HRs34 RBIs
2nd in AL3rd2ndT – 2nd3rd6th

Only an unworldly season by the (Fill in the Blank) Athletics’ Jacob Wilson is keeping Jeremy Pena from the top spot among AL shortstops. He’s had a terrific start to the season.

Third Base – Isaac Paredes (66 starts) / Dubon (4 starts)

.252 BA.347 OBP.816 OPS37 Runs15 HRs45 RBIs
7th in AL4th3rdT – 3rdT – 1st1st

We have been witnessing a strong start to Paredes’ career here in Houston. Alex Bregman (now hurt) was putting up one of the few better seasons than Paredes at third base this season. And for $30 million more per year he should. Now let’s see what happens when/if they both return.

Left Field – Altuve (35 starts)/ Dezenzo (14 starts)/ Jacob Melton (7 starts)/ Yordan Alvarez (6 starts)/ Chas McCormick (5 starts)/ Dubon (3 starts)

.233 BA.291 OBP.640 OPS26 Runs6 HRs31 RBI
11th in AL12th13thT – 11thT – 10th6th

Like Walker at first base, the left field spot (split between Altuve and a cast of thousands) has weak numbers for most stats. However, in a very important stat – RBIs – they are outperforming those stats solidly.

Center Field – Jake Meyers (61 starts)/ McCormick (7 starts)/ Melton (1 start)/ Dubon (1 start)

.295 BA.356 OBP.757 OPS34 Runs3 HRs16 RBIs
1st in AL1st2nd10th  15th15th

Meyers is the reverse of Walker/Altuve with very strong numbers for a CF for BA/OBP/OPS. His run producing numbers are not impressive, but he had been hitting a long way down the lineup for most of the season. In reality, what he has brought to the lineup has been a guy who has extended many a rally and helped turn the lineup over. Saturday night was typical. In the ninth, he had a huge two out single to move Christian Walker over to third base and set up young Cam Smith for the walk off single.

Right Field – Cam Smith (55 starts)/ Dezenzo (11 starts)/ Dubon (2 starts)/ Melton (1 start)/ McCormick (1 start)

.252 BA.324 OBP.683 OPS29 Runs4 HRs28 RBIs
5th in AL6th9thT – 7th13th10th

Saturday night was the one-year anniversary of Cam Smith playing in his first College World Series game for Florida St. On the anniversary he hit what he claimed was the first walk off in his life. After a slow start to the season, he has been very good, only lacking a bit of power. Give it time as he grows into his body. This kid is IT.

Designated Hitter – Alvarez (23 starts)/ Altuve (16 starts)/ Caratini (13 starts)/ Diaz (12 starts)/ Dezenzo (3 starts)/ Rodgers (1 start)/ Paredes (1 start)/ Pena (1 start)

.224 BA.288 OBP.654 OPS26 Runs8 HRs31 RBIs
9th in AL11th13thT – 13th12th11th

Truth to tell, this looks like the Astros DH stats before Yordan Alvarez joined the team. No one thought the DH spot would be one of the team’s weakest this year. But Yordan got off to a bad start probably due to fighting his hand problems and since he has been on the IL no one has stepped up to claim the spot. All Astro fans are hoping that when Yordan returns, he is the +.900 OPS beast we are used to seeing.

So….

  • Anything here that surprises you?
  • What is the biggest opportunity for improvement?
  • What is the biggest chance of regression?
  • How do you feel about the Astros’ offense to date?
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43 responses to “Astros’ offense: Position by position”

  1. Good morning everyone. The Astros have a pretty middling offense. OPS, 14th. Homers, 21st. OBP, 15th. BA, 9th. RBI’s, 20th. We’re not 11 games over .500 because we hit well. But we have managed some timely hits, and I think we’re 4 and 0 in Manfred games. That’s a huge boost for this club, based on our typically crappy performance in extras.

    We might not be as good as 11 games over .500 by the time we get to the All Star break, especially if Parades is handled carefully, as he should be. And when is Yordan going to come back and then get up to full speed? Why do I think August? We also can’t expect Walter to keep pitching as he is. We need Arrighetti back too. So it’s not going to be all smooth sailing. People will be picking on Joe again before long.

    But we will end up with better DH numbers eventually.

    And I think we can count on steady improvement from right field.

    But did you know Jake has a .591 OPS at home with a .326 BAbip? And a .963 OPS with a .386 BAbip on the road? I expect regression.

    Pena can’t keep doing what he’s doing can he?

    I think Paredes will get back to work and remain steady.

    Yanier and Walker will both have better second halves.

    Left field and second base are the two places I can’t really figure. It depends partially on where Jose is playing. Zach or Chas might help in left, but one of them could be gone. And we really need a reliable lefty bat at second. I think if given the chance to play, Guillorme will produce more than second has been giving us. I don’t know why we kept Rodgers.

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  2. Good morning everyone. The Astros have a pretty middling offense. OPS, 14th. Homers, 21st. OBP, 15th. BA, 9th. RBI’s, 20th. We’re not 11 games over .500 because we hit well. But we have managed some timely hits, and I think we’re 4 and 0 in Manfred games. That’s a huge boost for this club, based on our typically crappy performance in extras.

    We might not be as good as 11 games over .500 by the time we get to the All Star break, especially if Parades is handled carefully, as he should be. And when is Yordan going to come back and then get up to full speed? Why do I think August? We also can’t expect Walter to keep pitching as he is. We need Arrighetti back too. So it’s not going to be all smooth sailing. People will be picking on Joe again before long.

    But we will end up with better DH numbers eventually.

    And I think we can count on steady improvement from right field.

    But did you know Jake has a .591 OPS at home with a .326 BAbip? And a .963 OPS with a .386 BAbip on the road? I expect regression.

    Pena can’t keep doing what he’s doing can he?

    I think Paredes will get back to work and remain steady.

    Yanier and Walker will both have better second halves.

    Left field and second base are the two places I can’t really figure. It depends partially on where Jose is playing. Zach or Chas might help in left, but one of them could be gone. And we really need a reliable lefty bat at second. I think if given the chance to play, Guillorme will produce more than second has been giving us. I don’t know why we kept Rodgers.

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    • I disagree in so many ways. They always find a way with pitching. Spencer will be back in the rotation. McCullers has pitched well except the Cincy start. Javier, Garcia and France are throwing in Florida. Walker, Diaz, and Cam Smith will have better 2nd half than 1st and a healthy Alvarez. Pena swing change looks for real and Altuve n Issac will produce. The bullpen is elite. At the All Star break they will be 20 games over .500 with money to find left handed 2nd baseman Will staying under tax so they can reset for next year with 100 million coming off the books

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      • Christiaan, thanks for replying. Actually we agree on quite a few things. Walker, Diaz, Smith, Alvarez, yeah, assuming good health I think all should have a a better second half.

        As I noted, I think Paredes will remain steady. That means 30 plus homers.

        And the pen has been superb.

        But as I noted also, I’m not as convinced with Pena and Jake. But both guys can certainly help a good club even with regression at the plate. Pena is a 4 WAR guy annually. As for Altuve, if he’s even a bit more selective, he’ll be more productive.

        If you read my post down below, I noted that what the Sugar Land arms have done is remarkable. We are 11 games over right now because of them keeping us in games. And if the team continues at the present pace, then the Astros could be 20 games over at the break. And if that’s the case, then I’ll tip my cap to you.

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  3. Biggest surprise is Rodgers starting 1 game at DH on May 9 vs. the Reds. Cam Smith had that day off & Yordan was injured, but we could have had Caratini or Salazar play instead.

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  4. Thoughts:

    • While I love the two walk offs on the weekend – the anemic offense in those two games was a bit concerning. Four hits on Saturday (two of them in the 9th inning) and four singles Sunday in 10 innings. Thank goodness the Twins left fielder was as graceful as Greg Luzinski chasing Dubon’s walk off single against the wall.
    • Walter continues to put up very good starts for the team. I did not understand why they sent him down after his first start (6 innings of shutout ball). He and Gordon are just those typical left-handed sneaky good starters – so far.
    • Loving what we are getting from Cam Smith – it feels like the power is coming – but he has been doing everything you can ask from a 22 y.o. with so little experience.
    • Can’t believe that Hunter Brown hit double digit Ks Saturday for the first time this year and that he had only one 10 K start in his career. Those 12 Ks were dominating.
    • 4-0 / 18 for 18 on saves/ 1.45 ERA/ 0.742 WHIP – Josh Hader is certainly earning that big salary this year

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  5. When Yordan returns he will provide protection for other hitters, thus improving the lineup as a whole. Two huge holes in that lineup with him and Paredes injured. If they can hold on until their return, there is a better chance for the lineup to produce.

    Two series against division rivals on the road this week. The Astros have their division lead within their grasp if they play well. Pulling for them to give their pitchers better run support.

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  7. IMO it’s time to end the Altuve in LF experiment. Its causing a log jam in what I will characterize as the ‘normal’ OF rotation. There are other better defensive LF options on the roster. It’s also a disservice to Altuve and his career stats at the position. I get it – his defensive metrics are down. It doesn’t matter. He is by far the best hitter playing that position. And that far outweighs his defensive shortcomings.

    Its also time to let Rodgers go. While I’m sure he’s is a good guy in the clubhouse, etc., he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat, and a black hole in the lineup. He’s also clogging up the IF and interfering with Dubón’s normal UT role.

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    • Morning jirby. Determining what to do with Altuve is a daily challenge. It’s probably the toughest decision Joe Espada has to make every time he writes out the line up. Jose is a liability in the field wherever you put him. That’s reality. I just watched the 9 minute version of last nights game and he once again looked flat out bad at second base. He made a relatively routine play behind the bag look tough with bloop throw to first that barely beat the runner. He fumbled an easy chance coming in on a ball that resulted in an error. And that’s why (per Baseball Reference) he’s got an overall -0.2 WAR on the season. His -1.4 dWAR has negated all of his offensive production on the season. It’s going to be tough watching my all time favorite Astro for the next four and a half years.

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  8. I apologize for replying to my own post, but I wasn’t allowed to finish my comments above.

    As far as the pitching staff, it’s disheartening to hear about LMJ. Maybe he was due for a stinker last time out, although he didn’t pitch terribly. I think he will be just fine.

    Arrighetti STILL being out is a mystery. Is he even throwing yet? Unless its more than a broken thumb. Never know with the Astros.

    Gordon, and Walter especially, have given a good account of themselves. I have absolutely no problem leaving them in the rotation.

    Gusto, bless his heart, needs to go back to the pen as the designated long reliever. He can go 2-3 IP twice a week, and save innings off the arms of Okert, King, Dubin, Souza, Abreu, etc.

    Last thing. STOP hitting Walker 4th. It probably shouldn’t make a difference if he hits 4th or 5th, bit it sure seems to. Leave him in the #5 spot.

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  9. The Astros were overdue for that kind of a loss last night. 1 run rarely gets it done. Pitchers can’t afford to make any mistakes. Defense has to be impeccable. Our boys were mostly good in those areas, but not faultless. Shout out third baseman Guillorme for his defensive e efforts. So let’s get 6 or 7 runs tonight and see if that’s enough. Losing Lance is a big loss, even as he struggled at times. He’s a veteran presence this group sorely needs right now.

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    • Such a shame to waste three fantastic, highlight-reel defensive plays from Guillermo. The last, in short LF, one of the best catches I’ve ever seen.

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  10. Thoughts

    • Yesterday was kind of what the Astros deserved for another bad offensive effort. You can’t expect your pitching to be perfect.
    • You have to give Ryan Gusto big kudos. Great effort moving up a day to take Lance’s spot in the rotation
    • It was one of those games where every offensive booboo came back to bite them. Jake goes brain dead on a line drive by Cam and gets doubled off. Then you know that the next two guys are going to get hits – but no runs. They hit into three double plays to kill rallies. Guys strike out when a hit is needed – then the next time up they hit with nobody on and get stranded.
    • Guillorme made like three brilliant plays but none better than running with his back to the infield and diving to snag a blooper. His hitting….well he was one of the guys who did nothing with guys on and got a hit with no one on.
    • Of course, we have to play the A’s when they are hot – now won 4 in a row. We couldn’t play them when they couldn’t beat yo mama
    • Four games starting at 9:05 PM central time – not even an earlier game on getaway Thursday – so they will be getting into LA early morning I assume.

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    • Dan, most of that bad stuff did not show up on the condensed game this morning. I won’t be watching tonight either.

      Sounds like Lance dropped a weight on his foot. Why do we have so many freak injuries?

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      • daveb – I can’t believe that you trust their medical staff. Everyone knows that in actuality Lance’s leg has been amputated after Orbit drove a golf cart over him…

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      • About 75% of the way through the NBA season there were multiple teams who faced an issue where rostering rules would make a lot of their two way players ineligible at the end of the season. It’s all dumb and largely related to the fact they give the starters games off for “load management” and then face problems when real injuries occur. It feels like something similar is happening here. We have the old 26/40 man roster and who has options left problems of course, but if Brown is going to stay under the luxury threshold he’s going to have to get better injury luck the rest of the way. Having said all that it strikes me as ridiculous that Melton would take 4 weeks to recover from a sprained ankle unless it’s actually something more serious. Your amputation joke doesn’t sound too far fetched with this team.

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  12. Pena and Altuve were hitless Tuesday night and the Astros scored 13 runs on 15 hits. Alexander was good on the mound in his first Astros appearance.

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  13. Morning all. Yeah 1oldpro, the Astros got 11 hits and 10 RBI’s out of the bottom five guys in the line up. But gosh, the initial inning and a half I watched looked more like an exhibition between a triple A club and an ML team. Sears had nothing. And when the score was only 3-0 after those first two at bats by the Astros, I did not feel comfortable with that production and went to bed. I didn’t like Jakes caught stealing with a guy already on third and two outs and I had no expectations from our newest new guy on the mound.

    And then to wake up to a bunch of gaudy stats and 6 innings of shut out ball by Alexander. I certainly did not see that coming. I also don’t know why Joe had to get so gluttonous and try to squeeze a 7th inning out of the guy.

    But Cam Smith keeps reminding us of what’s ahead. He does a lot of things well already. And while it’s a slow creep, Diaz and Waker are coaxing their OPS’s up, little by little.

    But most remarkable is the pitching we’ve gotten from the Sugar Land Space Cowboys stolen rotation. Gordon, Gusto, Walter and now Alexander, all these guys have helped, mostly with quality innings. Without these four, our two man rotation and our pen would have imploded weeks ago. We would not be in first place 11 games over .500.

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  15. Thoughts

    • OK – it was not Alexander’s MLB debut, but as an Astros debut it was strong. The A’s have to wonder how Alexander gave up 12 runs in 18 innings for them earlier this year and now suddenly throws a solid outing for us.
    • Cam has been hitting the ball hard, but not getting the lift. He got the lift last night, the first one was a little high – was not sure it was going to go. The second looked like one of those Yainer bombs he hit as a rookie for us. Like I’ve said that young man has IT and he is going to be fun to watch.
    • Jake has been goofy here lately. He gets easily thrown out on that steal attempt yesterday (though I have to ask – was he being sent – since he had broken on the previous pitch). This was after the other day getting doubled off first on a Cam line drive. Maybe Jake has been staying after and having Altuve give him base running tips.
    • It was nice to go to bed knowing the Astros were about 99% likely to win.
    • It was also nice to not have to send King, Okert, Abreu and Hader out there.

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  16. Hey we got Jon Singleton back! Wait, what, you said his name is Wes Clarke? Generals play baseball now? What? There is another Wes Clarke?

    I guess it doesn’t matter since he isn’t on the 40 man anyway. But dang, those minor league strikeout numbers. Why even take a flyer on this guy.

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    • Maybe you take a flyer on the guy because you have taken everything from Sugarland except for your #1 prospect and the kitchen sink. He is a warm body.

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    • Instead of (likely) sending cash to the Brewers for 1B whiff machine Wes Clarke….could they just put it in my bank account. I’ll gladly give them my account number like I did with that Nigerian prince,

      I do have a question – can we find an offensive guru alchemist that will make gold from lead like we do with pitching flotsam and jetsam?

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      • It’s tough. I wish the Astros would get some of their minor league teams out of wiffleball leagues. You can’t really tell what you ever have. Our pitchers are obviously better than what the PCL says they are. Our hitters are clearly not.

        The Astros have a pretty good history of not being “the bat whisperers.”

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      • I saw Wes Clarke DH earlier in the year. He walked once, struck out once, and was so memorable I had to go back to check the box score to verify he even played in the game. I hope the plan is to use him to fill space until later in the year when players will get promoted.

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  17. In my humble opinion, the goal for the rest of the year would be to get the team healthy for a run. Position by position, I think it would look like this: Melton in left, Meyers in center and Cam in right with Chas as the 4th outfielder. By September that will be the best defensive outfield in baseball. Paredes at 3B, Pena at SS, Altuve at 2B and Walker at 1B, with Dubon at his normal utility and Caratini getting some play at 1B/ C. Diaz is your regular catcher and Yordan is your everyday DH. The lineup coming out of the healed injuries has the most potential to jell and is the most playoff tested. Maybe look for a bat that is a proven producer to help out as a PH for the playoffs at the deadline.

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    • OP – how have you and your family, especially your son, been doing? Y’all are on my morning prayer list hoping you get help on your issues relative to the hail damage.

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      • The roofers are two weeks away, with 6 to be done this week and 10 on their docket for next week. We are in line for the following week. Hoping things can be secure until then. All my other stuff has been fixed except ceilings, which have to wait for the roof to be done. So much happening right now. We are keeping our heads up and our hearts full.

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    • I would like the Astros to make a serious deadline approach to a lefty hitting LFer that can help them generate offense against good pitching. I just think that Melton, Meyers, kid Cam (older Cam will probably be better), these guys are just going to get shutdown swinging against the Max Frieds of the world. We are a long way from watching the Correa, Springer, Gurriel, Altuve, Bregman, Brantley lineups that toasted playoff pitching. Just watching replays of Yordan torching Robbie Ray and Jose Alvarado brings back memories of what we could do.

      It’s hard for me to imagine that this lineup that features so many feast/famine hitters, guys that rely on the pitchers making mistakes, is going to scratch it in the playoffs. Yainer isn’t going to see mistakes from Max Fried or Tarik Skubal. Walker is going to struggle against great pitching. Pena is a guy that can hit good pitching when he is right. But he isn’t always right. Isaac will give you great at bats, but he will be less able to force his pitch or a mistake against the very best.

      The Red Sox are rumored to move one of Duran/Abreu/Yoshida when Yoshida gets healthy. They all 3 would be considerable upgrades in LF, and none of them would be rentals, though they would be expensive, probably costing what is in my opinion the best arm we have in our organization Ullola and two other prospects. But, prospects are prospects, and Ullola doesn’t throw strikes (yet). Bold moves cost big money sometimes.

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      • My problem is that I think Altuve creates more negative havoc at second than left. I do think one guy that might provide pretty good value right now is Jake. It’s a sell high situation with him. And I do believe if Chas, assuming good health, is sent out to center daily, he’ll produce. But that means we need the elusive lefty hitting second baseman. So if I overlook Altuve’s defensive shortcomings at second, then I think Wilyer would be my guy. But to continue procrastinating, we might end up needing a starter more than anything else. So I’m going to sit tight for a few weeks and see how things start shaking out with our roster.

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  18. Here’s another thought. Maybe Wes was picked up because Dana is planning on moving a catcher in order to help get the starting pitching he’s looking for. That kind of scares me. But I know that Dana knows a lot more than us about the state of our starting pitching.

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  20. Wow, waking up to an 11-4 thrashing of the A’s in a Framber/Severino match up is a good cup of coffee. I know Luis does not like pitching in that minor league launch pad without a real clubhouse and other major league amenities, but I also think he’s better than what he’s providing the A’s. He’s not cheap either. Someone is bound to pick him up before the deadline though.

    Early in the week I mentioned that Pena and Jake would likely regress somewhat offensively. And I have expressed concern about Altuve too. Well I’m wrong so far on all three accounts. And based on not knowing when we’ll be seeing Yordan or Arrighetti or Lance again and not knowing if we might see Javier, Garcia or France at all in 2025, I’ve been thinking about staying in first place as we get to the All Star break. That’s been my own goal. And that would not be bad.

    But I did get taken to task by new reader Christiaan. Right now, the way our Astros are going, Christiaan might be right, with his expectation of the Astros being 20 games over .500 on July 13. And I’d be happy as a clam. And maybe I should write about Christian Walker being toast. That might get him going too!

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  21. A snippet from MLB.com this am…

    “The Astros have scored in double digits in four of their past eight games. Since May 24, their 17-6 record is the best in the Majors.

    A disciplined approach at the dish is a big part of that. The Astros struck out just 12 times and drew 10 walks in 98 combined plate appearances between Tuesday and Wednesday.”

    Soooo, by instituting a patient approach at the plate is paying dividends? How long have we been calling for this? (sarcasm)

    Anyways, I am happy that the club is doing well now.

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    • I’m a little more skeptical given the pitching staffs they have faced in that run. They are WS contenders they are supposed to beat up mediocre pitching. The Angels will probably see more of the same, hopefully we get at least 2 out of 3. After that though, Philly comes to town. Suarez, Sanchez and Weaver are the projected starters. All well below 3 ERAs. That will be a real tell if this offense can generate on playoff caliber pitching.

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  22. One interesting thought – don’t look now but Brice Matthews has been treating AAA pitching like a pinata the last month. The Astros are where they are despite very lackluster 2B production. Even if he struggles out the gate, he can’t be worse than Brendan Rodgers. I would say call him up, put him at 2B, give him 100 ABs and lets see.

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    • The big issue with Brice is the .526 home OPS and the 1.097 road OPS. He loves those thin air parks. But I’d sure like to see him start hitting in humid Houston too. One thing for certain, while we’d get some young mistakes from Brice at second, he’d still be a real upgrade defensively over Altuve. So I’m fully prepared to give him 100 AB’s. Maybe those home-road MLB splits would not be so wild.

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  23. I stayed up for the end of that one last night. Tired today. Colton kept our guys in the game. We failed to hit a hittable lefty. Pen not so sharp. Couple of errors. A couple of not so good base running decisions. Got the bases loaded, no runs. Gosh, if we somehow revert to the MLB norm of hitting when the bases are juiced, we’ll score a lot more runs this summer. Just one of those typical off Astro games. Nothing two out of three in Anaheim won’t fix. I hate these West Coast trips.

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