Don’t Look Now! Astros are busting out all over

Don’t look now, but the Astros are leading the AL West by four games.

After a shaky start, Houston has quietly clawed its way back to the top of the division. At 37–30, the Astros now hold the fourth-best record and fourth-best run differential (+29) in the American League. They’re not flashy — but they’re seemingly steady and starting to catch fire at just the right time.

Okay, “steady” might be a stretch — but they do feel on the verge of something.

Don’t Look Now, But June Is Heating Up

Starting play Thursday, the Astros are 6–3 in June, and that’s no small thing.
In 2024, Houston started off 29–33 before ripping off a 17–8 June that flipped their season script.
This year’s early June surge? It feels familiar — and could be just as important.

Key Streaks & Quiet Consistency

  • Winning streaks: 4 games (once), 3 games (three times).
  • Losing streaks: No longer than 3 games (only twice).
  • Current momentum: 1-game win streak.

Don’t Look Now, But the Pitching Is Carrying the Load

  • Framber Valdez. On a five-game win streak after starting 1-4 and posting a 1.84 ERA over his last six starts.
  • Colton Gordon. Picked up his first MLB win on June 6 with 5 IP and 5 Ks. He’s not a finished product yet, but he throws strikes — and doesn’t beat himself. And the team is 4-1 in his starts.
  • Hunter Brown. The real breakout. He’s quietly become one of the top starters in the AL if not all MLB, ranking second in ERA (1.82) and first in WAR among pitchers.

The Big Question. Can the Astros stitch together a consistent rotation behind Valdez and Brown using Gordon, Ronel Blanco, Lance McCullers Jr., and Spencer Arrighetti (eventually)? Or should the front office go shopping at the deadline?

Don’t Look Now, but Jeremy Peña is becoming that guy

Peña is putting together a statement season — and it’s getting harder to ignore.

  • Hits in 15 of his last 16 games, slashing .409/.435/.636 (1.071 OPS) with 3 HR and 8 RBI.
  • Season totals: .322/.377/.488, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 37 runs — .865 OPS
  • June dominance: .421 AVG and .989 OPS across 9 games
  • Leading off: Slashing .366/.410/.555 at the top of the lineup
  • WAR leader: 4.0 WAR — nearly double the next-closest Astros’ player (Isaac Paredes’ 2.1).

He’s not just holding down the fort — he’s taking it over. Peña’s rise is steady, powerful, and perfectly timed for a team that seems to be in a transition. He’s not in a contract year yet, but one of those contracts that buys out some arb and free agent years should be discussed soon!

Don’t Look Now, but Altuve is trying to stay relevant.

Altuve may actually be quietly handing the baton to the next wave of Astros stars.

It’s clear the team is evolving — with Jeremy Peña, Cam Smith, and Isaac Paredes leading the charge into a new era. And while Altuve is still very much in the mix, the question is shifting: where does he fit — in the field, in the lineup, and in the long-term plan?

He’s a franchise icon. He’s not going anywhere. He’ll retire an Astro — no question. But with $33 million due for each of 2026 and 2027, and another $13 million annually in 2028 and 2029, the conversation is changing from “how much can he carry” to “how can he contribute.”

Altuve still has moments of brilliance — but the torch may already be in mid-air.

2024 vs 2025 at Game 67: A Snapshot

SeasonRecordWin %Run Diff.June Surge
202537–30.552+296–3 so far
202430–37.448+517–8 in June

Last year, June flipped everything. This year? It might just do it again.

Why It All Matters

Between Valdez’s reliability, Brown’s breakout, Gordon’s potential, and Peña’s rise, the Astros have some pieces. Add in others like Paredes and Smith and the surprising Jake Meyers — and the pieces may be starting to fit.

They’re not blowing out teams, and Yordan Alvarez remains sidelined, but they’re winning. Quietly. Consistently. And perhaps, inevitably.

The division isn’t locked up, but Houston is warming up — off the field (temperature-wise) and on the field.

Let’s Talk Baseball.

Here are a few questions to spark conversation.

  1. What’s impressed you most about Jeremy Peña’s breakout?
  2. Is Brown ready to be a true No. 1 starter in Houston?
  3. Should the Astros stay internal with their rotation — or make a big move at the trade deadline?
  4. Which current Astro has surprised you the most this season? Good or bad?
  5. Do you see this team trending toward another postseason push?
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22 responses to “Don’t Look Now! Astros are busting out all over”

  1. Pena has always been steady, averaging a 4 plus WAR. I don’t want to say much about the guy and screw up his present excellence. I’d be very happy with an .800 OPS, but that would mean some regression.

    Hunter has shown remarkable maturity over the past year. With good health, he’ll be a good number 1, but I’d rather have two of them.

    I don’t see a big move at the deadline, because I don’t know what guys we’d trade that would give us that big move. And I really don’t want another two month rental.

    I say this as Jose has awakened once again over the past couple of days, but since the end of 2023, we’ve seen a lot of fade from my favorite Astro.

    I certainly see this team in the post season, but I’m not confident we’ll be going deep. Good health team wide and Arrighetti and Yordan have to come back and produce.

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  2. Teams are carried by pitching. When you look at teams records when their guy takes the mound Framber Valdez has been one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball over the last 4 years. That’s their job, give their team a chance to win. The pitcher doesn’t always get the win, and sometimes you pitch great and still lose 2-1, but put your team in a position to win and a lot of times, they will.

    Framber and Hunter both are pitching like aces. What that means – 75% of the time they pitch they should put their team in position to win, and the team should 60%+ of those, and they should get the personal win 55-57% of them. They are both pitching above that right now. The team is 9-5 when Framber starts. He is personally 7-4. 9-4 when Hunter starts, he is personally 8-3. So the team is 18-9 behind their co-aces. They are 20-21 behind everyone else.

    This entire thing is built around the continued success of Framber and the emergence of Hunter. These two guys have to keep going and everyone else has to put the team in a position to win 65% of the time and have the team actually win half of those (which means the offense needs to carry some of those). Pena has been a big boost. So has Paredes. Walker is coming around. Diaz has taken a small step forward. They have pretty much gotten Rodgers out of the lineup. The offense has to do its part in those games to scratch out the 3 or 4 runs it may take to win enough of those close games. As bad as they have been, the pitching has put them in position and they have responded by winning enough of them.

    I’ve said plenty of times before, and saying it again, and I’m sure not for the last time. The most important player in the Astros post 2019 success hasn’t been Altuve, or Yordan, or Bregman, or Tucker, or even JV, the best and most impactful player of this era of Astros baseball has been Framber Valdez. Now, I don’t know what that means past 2025, but we are playing 2025 right now, so enjoy it.

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    • Speaking of Rodgers, I guess he’s sticking around, at least until guys like Paredes, Yordan and Dezenzo get well.

      But Guillorme has a lifetime .261 BA and a .349 OBP against righties in MLB play. He’s not going to hit dingers, but he’s a pesky lefty bat and plays a good second base.

      I think if the salary structure of these two guys was reversed right now, we’d see the lefty.

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      • Absolutely, 100% agree. Guillorme should have been the choice coming out of ST. The Astros were concerned with the defense. Rodgers is a legitimate defender. Guillorme is a versatile guy, but he isn’t winning GGs. But man, I love pesky lefties. The Astros should have doubled Tauchmann’s offer from the White Sox. They wouldn’t even be talking about a LFer right now, and they would have a pesky lefty batting 9th that just aggravates pitchers and sees a lot of pitches. But they wanted the defense to improve. The cost was a player we all knew couldn’t hit outside of Colorado.

        I’m not really concerned that Rodgers has hit .183. We have plenty of guys that have not hit what they were expected to hit. I’m just looking at the 46 K’s in 122 PAs and convinced that he won’t be much better than that .183 in the next 122 PAs. So why have him? Just release him, and lets call up that lefty bat, and when you want to clamp down defense at 2B, Dubon does that just fine.

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  3. As for Altuve – I’ve always wondered if the unique structure of his contract is because he is thinking maybe he might retire after 2027 and that he could garner most of that money up front. When you have made hundreds of millions walking away from 26M to not put yourself through the rigors of two more seasons, who knows. Then again, if he gets himself in range of 3000 hits at the end of 2027, maybe he will stay and take that shot. I fully expect him to be a negative WAR player the last few years of this contract. I was looking at some of the defensive metrics for him this year, and while his limited time at 2B has not been good, left field has been abysmal. In some of them he is literally the worst LFer in the game. I don’t have a good answer for what you do with him defensively at this point, but I don’t think there is a good answer.

    He was -13 in DRS last year. We are a bit over a third of the way through this season and he is already at -11 total with a -8 in LF. If he finishes at -26 DRS, the number he is on pace for, while hitting .270 with a .315 OBP, he will be a negative WAR guy. And I might agree with WAR at that point, he is a detriment to the team as an everyday player. And that is tough for any of us to accept given that for most of us he is one of, if not flat out, our favorite Astro ever.

    Maybe you keep “hiding” him in LF. To be honest, he hasn’t looked like to me the way the metrics have shown, but that’s what they mean by “hiding.”

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  4. The most interesting question for the Astros is whether or not to make a trade for starting pitching help at the deadline:

    • First, as weak as the AL West is showing – they may not be “forced” to make a move to win the division
    • Second, in a normal playoff run a team may only need four starters. Last year they only needed two, unfortunately.
    • They potentially could have the following starting pitchers available to them at playoff time – current batch of Hunter, Framber, Lance, Gusto, Gordon and Walter plus potentially …Arrighetti, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and J.P. France.
    • So, do you trade off prospects when you may have up to ten potential starters for four spots (Yes, I know that the injured are not sure things)
    • On the other hand as Steven talks about – do we have enough high end starters here for the playoffs – is it Hunter, Framber and a lot of guys we can’t rely on (even guys like Lance, Garcia, and Javier who have pitched in high stakes games before).
    • Do you mortgage some of your future for a Kikuchi 2.0? Do you trade for a so-so guy when you already have some so-so guys?

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  6. On a completely different topic: Forrest Whitley.

    It’s very clear that the Astros gave him plenty of opportunity to develop physically and mentally, heal, fix his mechanics and otherwise become a major league pitcher.

    I would usually ask the question about coaching and development, but for years, the Astros keep churning out Arrighettis, Gustos, Frances, Gordons and Walters and others who have lesser talent, so using that analogy, I’m wondering if the Astros are completely done with him and won’t just outright release him if he clears waivers.

    And since Dan mentioned Kikuchi, apparently something clicked with him during his short stay here. He’s walked 41 batters in 67 IP so far with the Angels.

    What do you think it is that Houston keeps finding seemingly lesser talent and develops it? Coaching? Environment? Opportunity?

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    • My gut feeling is that for pitching development – the Astros have a combination of scouting, coaching and analytics – the final two closely linked. They are able to look around and say that XXX or in this case Kikuchi has good spin rate, a variety of pitches, etc. but…. he needs help on which pitches to throw, the sequencing and the location. They grab these guys and say – you’ve fallen in love with your two seam fastball – cut it way back and throw more four seam fastballs at the top of the zone. Quit throwing that slider and throw your curve instead. etc

      Now not everyone works out. Montero had a good arm, good stuff but maybe he just did not have the ability to locate it good enough except for that magic 2022 season. Maybe some pitchers are one trick ponies. Chris Devenski fooled them with his changeup until they got ready for it.

      Whitley? I sure think his inability to stay healthy was his biggest problem. Every time he seemed to be starting to perform well – he was out. We don’t know if he was able to follow the analytics to a tee. Maybe he did not have enough movement on his pitches. MLB hitters will hit a straight fastball even at 98 mph.

      It is a fascinating question Chip and probably one that is key to the Astros great results since 2017.

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  13. Happy Father’s Day everyone. Another series win. We’ve got a resilient group that keeps changing. It’s fun while we’re winning, but I’m looking forward to seeing some old familiar faces back. Seems like it’s going to be awhile though before most of the guys get off the shelf.

    It’s apparent that Jacob Melton is one of those guys that will have a hard time staying on the field. It’s not changing at the ML level. It’s too bad, because he’s a good athlete that keeps getting his progress stalled.

    I don’t know if it can be called depth and I don’t know if it’s sustainable, but we’re winning. Joe deserves some credit.

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  14. Don’t Look Now UPDATE.

    Astros win again.
    Sweep Twins with Gordon, Brown and Walter pitching well.

    5-game streak…longest of ’25.
    Astros have third-best record in AL, seventh in all MLB

    9-3 in June.
    Smith with a walkoff on Saturday.
    Pena 0-7 last two games.
    Two wins in last at bat this weekend.
    Hader comes into tie situations last two days and gets the win.

    Come on! Takeaways? Thoughts? Concerns?

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  15. Another question. I don’t follow all the blogs and the radio shows, but has anyone suggested moving Smith to third if Paredes goes out for a while? Or would moving him mess up some growing confidence he’s building?

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    • It’s a real good point, Chip and I haven’t heard it. But I think they like the progress Cam is making at the plate and in the field and probably don’t want to move him for a short term deal.

      Plus they are really lacking OFs right now….

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