Now that we’ve reached Memorial Day and another weird off-day for the Astros (what’s up with that, anyway?), the Astros seem to be putting together some momentum. Or is this just a mirage or some extra shiny things that are getting our hopes up?
At any rate, don’t look now, Ethel!
Don’t Look Now… The Astros Are Heating Up
After a sluggish start to the 2025 season, the Astros are showing signs of life. They began the season with a 17–18 record through their first 35 games. However, they’ve improved to 28–25, going 11–7 in their last 18 games, and now sit just 1.5 games behind the AL West-leading Seattle Mariners.
Don’t Look Now… Jeremy Peña Is Thriving at Leadoff
Since moving into the leadoff spot on April 27, Peña has been a catalyst for the Astros’ offense. Over 19 games in this role, he’s posted a .337 batting average, .394 on-base percentage, and .894 slugging percentage. This performance has elevated his season stats to a .292 average and .795 OPS .
Don’t Look Now… Cam Smith Is Making an Impact
Rookie Cam Smith, acquired in the Kyle Tucker trade, has been a pleasant surprise. After a slow start, he’s found his footing, batting .261 with a .343 OBP and he’s added 3 home runs and 14 RBIs . His recent two-out RBI double against the Mariners tied the game, showcasing his growing confidence at the plate.
Don’t Look Now… Framber Valdez Is Steadying the Rotation
Amidst injuries in the starting rotation, Valdez has been a stabilizing force of late. He’s on a roll with three strong performances in the past couple of weeks. Overall, he holds a 4-4 record with a 3.39 ERA and 64 strikeouts, ranking among the league’s top pitchers.
Don’t Look Now… The Pitching Staff Is Elite
Houston’s pitching has been a cornerstone of their recent successes. The Astros have used 10 different pitchers as starters and has still hit its groove. The team boasts a 3.42 ERA, ranking sixth in MLB, and a WHIP of 1.14, which is second-best in the league. Their batting average against stands at .218, placing them fourth overall. One more stat: The Astros are sixth in the league in run differential, which should be credited mostly to the pitching staff.
Don’t Look Now… The Bullpen Is Holding Strong
Despite injuries to key starters, the Astros’ bullpen has stepped up remarkably. Relievers like Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and Bryan King have been instrumental in maintaining the team’s competitiveness, showcasing the depth and resilience of Houston’s pitching staff.
Don’t Look Now… The Offense Is Finding Its Rhythm
While the offense has faced challenges, there are signs of improvement. If I’d told you two months ago that Jake Meyers (.300), Pena (.295) and Isaac Paredes (.276) would be leading the team in hitting, you’d probably have laughed at me. Can they keep it up? Can Jose Altuve and Christian Walker get back to their norms?
Don’t Look Now… Home Field Advantage Is Real
The Astros have capitalized on their home games, holding an 18-10 record at Daikin Park. This strong home performance has been a key factor in their recent success and will be crucial as they aim to climb the standings. Now, to fix that 10-15 away record!
Don’t Look Now… Your turn to fill in the blank
Let’s Talk Astros
To spark conversation, consider these questions:
- What am I missing? Are we seeing glimmers of hope or just some shiny things that won’t last?
- Is Jeremy Peña the long-term solution at leadoff?
- Can Cam Smith maintain his recent offensive surge and solidify his spot in the lineup? Should they move him a spot or two, or let him continue to gain confidence in the bottom three?
- Will Framber Valdez continue to anchor the rotation amidst ongoing injuries? Or has he already ceded that ace role to Hunter Brown?
- Are you ready to say the Astros have cleared a major hurdle or are you still not convinced?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
19 responses to “Don’t look now! A mirage or the real thing?”
Good morning, and a peaceful Memorial Day to all.
We’re far from out of the woods. But hopefully guys like Altuve and now Walker are finally starting to climb back up into a respectable stat range. They don’t need to do it overnight. Little by little is fine.
On this date in 2024, Alex Bregman was hitting .210/.278/.323/.601.
On this date in 2025, Christian Walker is hitting .212/.275/.354/.629. And his BABip is .265. Walker has already been written off by half the crowd across the way. But he will hit. Early season slumps sure can be painful. I’m guilty of wondering if maybe Jose is/has been hitting the wall at 35. Not so fast.
If it works, don’t fix it. Leave Pena alone up there. Leave Cam down there. Leave Jake alone. But he’s still the guy I most wonder about. Gosh, his selectively has improved! But, there are still reasons for concern. The .364 BABip. The 48.5% GB rate and 21.2 FB rate. Jake still needs to get the ball off the ground like several other guys.
Framber and Hunter are the rotation glue. This is the tough part. We can’t expect as much from Gordon, Walter and Gusto going forward can we? It’s going to remain a rocky journey, especially on the road. Jose looks pretty comfortable in left at home but not so much on the road. I guess that’s when Zach will get a few starts, for now anyway.
It was nice to come out of the 17 day trip by winning 3 of 4 from the M’s. They were not happy to go home with one win. Castillo had not thrown so many pitches all year. He’s typically a 90’s guy.
But we also don’t have a rotation today. It will be a makeshift operation for months to come. On Saturday, the Astros site quietly updated the injury list. Garcia is throwing off a mound with return TBD. Javier is throwing off a mound with return mid season. (that one surprises me). France is throwing off a mound and is expected back in late 2025. Arrighetti is not throwing off a mound but is expected back in July. Healthy arms are what we almost desperately need.
And then there is Yordan. We need the hitters version of Yorden back. The injury list published on May 24 says he’s coming back in late May. Is that tomorrow, or next May?
LikeLike
“Is that tomorrow, or next May?” Good one! Concerning, but an accurate observation.
LikeLike
I forgot all about Lance. If he’s healthy, he’ll continue to get better. 900 days off is a long time. He’s still in Spring Training.
LikeLike
I read something interesting elsewhere about the pitching staff. Not complaining, they are getting the job done. And the ‘elite’ tag is warranted. (With all due respect to Samuel Clemens and his noted disdain of statistics.) However, the article noted that Wesneski and Blanco are, essentially, converted relievers. Not a ton of innings thrown in past season. And it may be a possible contributor to their injuries.
On the other hand, Gordon and Walter are actual starters. Young and unproven? Yes. But their raw ‘stuff’ passes the eye test, and it plays at the Major League level. But they’re also fearless – they attack hitters. While other injured, proven starters are on their way back, who knows? Don’t get me wrong. I have the highest hopes all those guys make it all the way back.
More time at AAA will certainly allow Gordon and Walter to develop their craft. But if things, unfortunately, do go sideways, these two young arms could be a extremely valuable to the big league roster sooner rather than later.
LikeLike
I would like to thank those who made the ultimate sacrifice for our company, including my great-uncle Leroy Klug, who died on Dec. 3, 1943 near Bouganville when his torpedo bomber was shot down in the Solomon Islands. My middle name Lee was in honor of him.
Thank you to Chip for his contribution to the blog today….
Shout out to the crawfish boxes for linking to us today Astros Crawfish Boil: 26May25 – The Crawfish Boxes
LikeLiked by 1 person
That should have said country, not company….
LikeLike
As per usual – lots of good conversation starting items there, Chip.
I’m feeling better about this team. I think they are feeling better about themselves.
LikeLike
As per usual – lots of good conversation starting items there, Chip.
I’m feeling better about this team. I think they are feeling better about themselves.
LikeLike
It was a big hurdle. They could have easily gone 7-10. But plenty more hurdles ahead. Right now, we really need the bats to make life a bit easier on the pitchers. Hopefully we’re starting to see glimpses of that.
LikeLike
Great write up Chip. I’ll throw in some hot takes. Disclaimer – they could be totally inaccurate in 2 months, or a week.
Pena’s first key – here is his K percentages year by year – 2022 24.2%, 2023 20.3%, 2024 17.1%, 2025 15.1%. To be honest, watching him play I feel like I am less frustrated by the outside sliders, but actually, his chase percentages are about the same as previous seasons. I couldn’t believe it either because my eye is telling me different. What he is doing is for the first time in his career sitting below 50% swing rates. The key to Isaac’s success is a 43.1% swing rate and a 25.0% chase out of the zone rate.
Pena can’t come close to matching those but I do wonder if Isaac has gotten in his ear a little bit about watching some pitcher’s pitches go by to try and work the one you can do something with. In the end, that’s his biggest gain. He is walking a little more, but he hasn’t exactly morphed into a 100 walk guy. He is just seeing more pitches, and seeing more increases your chances per at bat of getting one you can hit hard. Hit it hard, and sometimes its a ground ball with velocity that finds a spot. Regardless, you can’t move him out of the leadoff while he is doing this. The secret is the declining K% combined with seeing more pitches per at bat. if he doesn’t fall into old habits, that star we thought we were getting 2 years ago may finally be arriving. While it’s not exactly early season anymore, it’s still early season enough for a 10 day slump to ruin your batting line.
They are committed to Cam at this point. Unless he goes south, they should let him get those rookie learning moments out of the way. One thing is for sure, this lineup can use his ability to extend an at bat, even if the results are not always what you want. I love guys who hit it the other way, but I don’t like to see the majority of their hits the other way. As he ages and he learns what pitchers are going to try and do with him he will speed up his clock and start pulling more. When you see those pull percentages change then you will see that next step.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Framber is Framber. If you think you are going to see October you need him. If you think you are not, you should probably trade him. The more he pitches in the lower 3 ERAs the less the chance you can match what a LA or NY team may come calling with.
Jake Meyers may be having success being the anti-Pena. He is swinging in the zone more aggressively, with a career high 53.8% swing rate at strikes and a career low 28.5% swing rate out of the zone. That’s it. EVs are the same, hard hits about the same, it’s just been pitch selectivity for the guy. Statcast has a stat called “Meatball” where it tracks pitches that pitchers should not leave where they leave, and he is up roughly 6-7% on those. What he is doing, he is not letting his pitches go by. I’m like Dave though, that BABIP can scare you, especially when there isn’t a real change in hard hit percentages or exit velocity.
A little deeper on Isaac – his solid contact rates, about the same as the rest of baseball. So is his barrel percentage. Line drive rates. FB and GB rates. He is kind of average in his bat to ball skills. What separates him and is quickly winning my heart – the average major leaguer swings at 28.4% of pitches out of the zone (a number most of our roster exceeds), but Isaac is at 21.1%. And it’s just not the obvious pitches he is watching. It’s pitchers pitches that are strikes. He forces the pitch he wants. The more I watch him, the more he is becoming my favorite player.
LikeLike
Interesting stuff Steven – as always.
Some thoughts –
LikeLike
On Cam’s RBI double, he inside-outed that pitch while Jake took off for 2nd. Did Espada call that hit-and-run play, or did Cam just intentionally hit it to the right side on his own? Either way, it was a beautiful thing to see.
LikeLike
True – I guess at this point I wish Altuve was going with the pitch more like Cam is.
LikeLiked by 1 person
You know, I have overlooked Framber a lot, especially since he hasn’t been dominant in every outing. He’s actually had a handful of not-so-good games and there’s been talk of moving him by the deadline.
That said, he has eight — count ’em 8! — quality starts! Only Zach Wheeler has more (9), and Hunter also has 8 and he’s getting all the kudos and atta boys!
Of course, Framber will be 32 next opening day and Hunter’s only 26, so there is that huge difference when considering trades, etc.
LikeLiked by 1 person
And since we’re talking about Paredes, Smith, Brown and others, ESPN is out with its latest MLB Awards Watch.
This should put a few things in perspective, coming from people who don’t have a dog in the race.
For example, both Paredes and Pena are in the AL MVP conversation (top 10) with the likes of Judge, Bregman and others.
Brown is in the Cy Young conversation and, of course, Smith is part of the AL ROY mix.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Great notes Chip. I don’t think any of them are close enough to win an award except Brown.
Aaron Judge can all of a sudden slump to just average Aaron Judge and win that award going away. With Soto and Ohtani gone, I am not sure anyone else in the AL can challenge.
Smith can finish 2nd and still watch Kristian Campbell run away with it.
Now injuries to Judge or Campbell will open this thing wide.
Hunter on the other hand, I think while the competition will be tough he is up to it. He can’t have any more of those last start though. He is showing pinpoint command of multiple pitches and he is hitting 97-98 routinely. This year is the time the Astros should be trying to sign him for a 6 year deal that buys out the first 3 of free agency.
LikeLike
Steven, I agree with your thoughts, but the fact that they are even in the conversation at this point speaks volumes.
Regarding buying out Hunter arb/free agent years, totally agree. Suggested that in another forum recently. The elephant in the room — or the elephant blocking the way — for a deal like your suggesting though, consists of two words: Scott. Boras.
LikeLike
Talk about a Jekyl and Hyde type team. Winning 4 out of the last 5 games is great and Altuve with 4 hits and two dingers tonight. As Peter Frampton sang “Must have been a dream, Come on let’s do it again”. Hunter superb and everybody hit except Paredes and the subs, but the other guys picked him up. Even Walker with a home run. Whitley with 2 solid innings. Time to capitalize on the opportunities that present themselves.
LikeLike