This version of the Astros has been one of the toughest to get a handle on for your faithful scribe. Are they the mediocre team we discussed in our last post? Are they a team on the cusp of offensive improvement that will soon go on a tear? Are they team on the cusp of injury driven pitching regression that will soon fall into a slump? I dunno.
But here is what’s on my mind today:
- I can’t fault the training staff for players getting injured. It happens….it happens a lot in this modern game. But after having pitchers in 2024 go down almost the identical way – lower velocity and poor performance followed by major surgery – it is weird they let Hayden Wesneski back on the mound even after missing a start. Would it have made a difference to immediately put him on the IL? I don’t know. But I do know he’s headed for TJ surgery after what could be called an ill-advised return to the mound.
- And then this on-going hand issue with Yordan Alvarez is bothersome. Would they have been better off with complete rest for longer, rather than having him hit soft toss and off a tee for what seems like most of the time he has missed? After waiting and waiting for Kyle Tucker to return last year from a deep bruise that was actually a break – we are all a little suspicious.
- And of course, the team is notoriously vague and wandering about the various injuries on the club. Latest Astros injuries & transactions They had been showing Spencer Arrighetti as coming back Mid-May since the injury happened. Now it is suddenly TBD. Luis Garcia and J.P. France seemed to have joined a witness protection program. Minor leaguers Taylor Trammell and Pedro Leon were injured in Spring Training and have not had an update in more than a month.
- The lineup feels like upside down day a bit. Your two hitters above .300 are Jake Meyers (.301 BA) and Jeremy Pena (.309 BA)? Rookie Cam Smith has a better slash line (.243 BA/ .339 OBP/ .717 OPS) than Yordan Alvarez (.210/.306/.646)…and Jose Altuve (.236/ .290/ .627)… and Yainer Diaz (.224/ .247/ .613) ….and Christian Walker (.202/.276/.623). Who would have thought that? And Cam is the one who gets to sit down more than any other (except the injured Yordan).
- Small sample size, but last year the Astros were a bad 18-27 in one-run games and 6-10 in extra innings and this year they are an ok 7-6 in one-run games and a small but perfect 2-0 in extra inning games. Why? Perhaps because….
- The Astros sport the best bullpen in the AL. They are first in ERA (2.64 ERA), first in WHIP (1.08), first in BAA (.193), etc. That top 4 of Josh Hader (1-0, 12 saves, 1.71 ERA), Bryan Abreu (1-1, 1.27 ERA) , Bryan King (2-0, 1.31 ERA), and Steven Okert (1-1, 1 save, 1.23 ERA) are about as good as it gets.
Anyways, just a few items to start (or end) a discussion. What’s on your mind today.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
39 responses to “Astros 2025: What’s on my mind”
These self-made trade rumors are often hilarious. This one is beyond that….
Red Sox could cut ties with $123M All-Star in blockbuster trade with Astros
The Astros are going to trade one of the few guys who is hitting well, 26 y.o. Isaac Paredes making a very reasonable $6.6 million for what I’m not sure. Neither Abreu now Duran are making $123 million. They are both pretty good outfielders, but why open a hole to fill a hole.
Oh, wait a minute at the end of the article they are pointing out that Duran is projected to get a 6 year / $123 million contract …..in 2029????? What the hell has happened to sports journalism?
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The Athletic rated our Astros 14th in this weeks rankings. That’s a short step above mediocre. At 15th, the Red Sox own the most mediocre spot for now.
We never get the full story on injuries. I hope Yordan has a problem with his hand(s) that is fixable in the off season. I hope Arrighetti’s optimistic diagnosis was not because something else in that hand was found subsequently. The Wesneski turn of events is real troubling. They must have missed something after the drop in velocity was deemed a brief rest issue. It stinks. And the other guys, will we ever see them again?
What if Yordan was healthy and Altuve, Diaz and Walker were all hitting? In spite of our rotation woes, we’d have fun club right now. Do we get to the point where Jose is given three or four days off to reset himself? Right now, our best outfield is easily Dezenzo, Meyers, Smith.
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The Athletic rated our Astros 14th in this weeks rankings. That’s a short step above mediocre. At 15th, the Red Sox own the most mediocre spot for now.
We never get the full story on injuries. I hope Yordan has a problem with his hand(s) that is fixable in the off season. I hope Arrighetti’s optimistic diagnosis was not because something else in that hand was found subsequently. The Wesneski turn of events is real troubling. They must have missed something after the drop in velocity was deemed a brief rest issue. It stinks. And the other guys, will we ever see them again?
What if Yordan was healthy and Altuve, Diaz and Walker were all hitting? In spite of our rotation woes, we’d have fun club right now. Do we get to the point where Jose is given three or four days off to reset himself? Right now, our best outfield is easily Dezenzo, Meyers, Smith.
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They are a good team. They just aren’t a great team.
We can think about what it would be if Diaz or Walker or Altuve or Alvarez were all playing and hitting the way they are supposed to. Reality, they are 5-3 in games decided by 5 runs or more, its likely a lot of that offense would just get bundled in blowouts that are in our favor. They are 7-6 in one run games. Maybe they could be 8-5 or even 9-4 in those scenarios, I don’t know. Maybe Jake Meyers could be hitting the way he is supposed to be or Jeremy Pena the way he is supposed to be and it would all come out in the wash.
The fact is this team has only let 3 games get away from them to this point. Seasons are decided by the pitchers. The Mariners are 6-5, which means their pitching let 5 get out of reach. Texas is 6-6, so 6 got away from their staff. The A’s are 7-12. Wow. 12 times, their pitching staff has let it get out of reach. How are they still contending? Smoke and mirrors, bet they finish the season at least 15 under. The Angels are 3-10.
The moral is pitching staffs win. They keep games close. Close games can be won by timely hits or walks even from guys like Rodgers. But those guys, the Rodgers, Dubons, the way our supposed hitters have been hitting like Altuve, Diaz, Walker, Alvarez, they can’t catch up when a pitcher gets shredded.
As long as that pitching staff keeps trotting out there, this team will be good. Now, get an injury from Brown or Valdez, it might be a wrap.
Good won’t matter in the playoffs, because every pitching staff is good. Then, those guys that are supposed to carry the day, need to carry the day. Until then, I think we are still on a collision course with October, but work needs to be done to secure that spot and find the offense we need to succeed in October.
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Good comments, Steven. My concern is that we’ve won a number of close games I was ready to give up on. Unless we create a few more blowouts in our favor we will have to hope for continued luck in that area.
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The injuries to pitchers and position players are certainly important concerns. However, one of my personal peeves is the mismanagement of the batting order. I get it that Espada may be limited in his flexibility becauseof the roster. But he seems to be doing his level best to bungle what IMO should be a pretty simple exercise. Peña seems to have made the lead off spot his own. All for it.. Altuve hitting 2nd, fine. The #3 & 4 spots are more critical. Paredes (3rd) should ALWAYS hit in front of Yordan (4th). Isaac sees as many pitches as anyone in MLB. He was #1 in MLB last season. This allows Yordan to benefit greatly by seeing more pitches from the on-deck circle, as he did following Bregman. He doesn’t get nearly the same benefit following Altuve, who is legendary for his 1-pitch ABs. Walker seemed to pick up the pace hitting 5th. Now he’s back at #4 and struggling again. Why? Diaz or Caratini 6th, then any combo of Meyer, Decenzo, Smith and Chaz 7, 8 & 9. BTW the bottom of the order has been tearing it up this season. This seems like more of a self-inflicted wound. The Astros need to settle in on this soon so they can move forward.
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Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory tonight. Okert and Ort the “Big O” relievers obviously had a night off. Good initial outing for Walter. Walker, the empty uniform goes 0 for 4 with 3 K’s, batting average now below the Mendoza line. Two hits for Altuve, a dinger for Paredes and Jake gets 2 hits again.
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27 outs, 13 were K’s. Just one walk. I turned the game off after six innings and picked up a book. Our outcome just felt a little predictable last night. Gosh, 8-4 would have sounded so much better than 7-5 twelve games into the seventeen game stretch.
Our guys managed nine hits. They got Littell out of the game after five. They just can’t hit when they need to. I’m guessing Walker is taking a lot of Tums at this point. Walter threw the best game of his very brief MLB life. Who knows what he’ll do next time out, but I give Dana some credit for this under the radar acquisition.
I hope Hunter is good in the heat. Our pen should be able to hold on to a 2 run lead today if necessary. Would be nice to get some help from our runs scoring department.
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27 outs, 13 were K’s. Just one walk. I turned the game off after six innings and picked up a book. Our outcome just felt a little predictable last night. Gosh, 8-4 would have sounded so much better than 7-5 twelve games into the seventeen game stretch.
Our guys managed nine hits. They got Littell out of the game after five. They just can’t hit when they need to. I’m guessing Walker is taking a lot of Tums at this point. Walter threw the best game of his very brief MLB life. Who knows what he’ll do next time out, but I give Dana some credit for this under the radar acquisition.
I hope Hunter is good in the heat. Our pen should be able to hold on to a 2 run lead today if necessary. Would be nice to get some help from our runs scoring department.
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Games like this are going to happen. Generating offense against good pitching is challenging for every team in the league not in New York or Los Angeles this isn’t just an Astros issue. The Rays had the issue too. I know you can’t pitch King/Abreu/Hader 162 times, and that Ort and Okert have to share those spots with King – but man it would have been nice to have that trio shut that one down last night too. King and Abreu had thrown a combined 47 pitches Monday so it was unlikely we were seeing either one.
We talked about this at the beginning of the year. This bullpen has been better than we anticipated for sure, but there might still be issues when the top guys are not available. Okert has been fantastic up to this point, but bullpen success can be fleeting especially for guys that have no history of success – Montero and Taylor have taught us that. I know that Okert has been better in the first quarter of the season than Maton or Stanek, but that doesn’t mean he will be better in the next quarter. Maton cost St. Louis 2M. Brendan Rodgers cost us 2M. I don’t think there is any doubt which one is more valuable.
Here is the thing about hitters. At some point, Christian Walker and Yainer Diaz are going to go off. But I am betting what’s going to happen is we are going to get to late June, early July, and have some more lopsided games in our favor, and all of a sudden both will be up above .250 with rising SLGs and everyone will think its fixed because they took advantage of some bad pitching in 8-3 blowouts. And then it won’t matter in October when they can’t hit the best teams best pitchers. What this team needs – Yordan because he can hit the best teams best pitchers, and Altuve to find the fountain of youth because he could hit the best teams best pitchers. Maybe Pena can become that guy that helps generate some offense in those spots. Those spots are why Aaron Judge and Juan Soto make the money they make.
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Brandon Walter sent back to Sugarland as Forrest Whitley removed from the IR list and activated today.
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Expect Blanco to join the infirm list. At some point, it’s going to win enough games without a rotation.
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OH NO!!!!
Ronel Blanco to visit team doctors with right elbow soreness
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Yeah Dan, I meant to write, “it’s going to be hard to win enough games without a rotation”. We might be getting ready to experience some really tough times ahead.
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Thoughts –
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Dubon with an error in two consecutive innings…
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Sarge – I think he got them both in the first inning on separate plays.
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Yes sir, you are correct.
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I feel that if the club continues this type of play and end the season at .500, then there will be some changes at the GM and field management positions. That would prove to be a 25 game decline from the 106 wins in 2022 to a “perceived” 81 wins in 2025.
Hmmmm, Dana Brown became the GM in 2023…
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Question? Any suggestions on how Espada might shake this lineup up? We have three of our best hitters, not, and one MIA on the IL, who was struggling before his IL stint. Read today, though better, his hand is still hurting, per Alvarez. With little to no consistency beyond Meyers in the 6th hole, would it be ridiculous to swap him and Altuve until the latter warms up?
I feel for Cam, having to learn to hit breaking pitches on the fly. Diaz batted .300 last season, yet bats like a rookie all over again. Who helps him curtail that propensity to swing, swing, and then swing some more? Walker reminds me of Pena chasing breaking pitches with his high K rate. Beyond the offense, I’m concerned about how this org handles injuries, especially with the P staff.
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No. No suggestions. Only hindsight. And those are useless.
The team needs to get lefty quick. I wish they hadn’t signed Walker and instead pursued an OFer like Santander. Singleton could be in a L/R platoon with Dezenzo, with Zach still getting some LF time, Guillorme should be on this roster instead of Rodgers, and if this was the plan for Chas they would have been better of non-tendering him and freeing up 3.4M and keeping Gamel instead. You can’t even trade him at this point because you have stripped him of the PT he needs to prove himself of at least a little value, so no one is going to take on the salary when they could just trust a minor leaguer to do the same.
But those are piddly ideas that don’t really fix anything other than the fact that teams are planning on loading up with righties on them. The Rangers may have blown it by using lefties out of the pen to be honest. This team needs a few batters at least that can read a right handed slider coming into them versus going away from them.
I’ve never really thought that the batting order has a lot to do with their individual performance or even team results. They generally bat the same number of times. If there was someone at the top getting on base at a .400 clip, maybe who bats 3rd or 4th matters. The top isn’t outperforming the bottom in that regard. Batting orders are almost as much about messaging to the players as anything else, at least in my opinion.
Frustrations with the offense aside, you aren’t going to win many games you give up 8 runs in. The pitchers decided this one, which is rare with Brown on the bump.
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I had just finished a too long post on the state of our organization, but alas, just as I was sending, our little island had a power outage and the Generac had not clicked in yet.
Short version. With Blanco, Wesneski and Arrighetti all gone, we don’t have a good rotation. And it will decimate the pen at some point. We also can’t hit.
We can’t trade Framber because we don’t have enough other guys to eat his innings. And Jim Crane has always insisted we won’t be sellers.
I think Joe is safe because he did not create the injuries. And the line ups are penciled in with the guys he has to work with.
Maybe we’ll end up at 71-91 and heads will roll after we play 162.
I hope the guys gut out a solid weekend against the M’s.
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I would trade Framber for the right offer.
How about – Framber Valdez, Colton Gordon, and Miguel Ullola to Boston in exchange for Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida.
Advantages for Boston – Yoshida is throwing and has an ETA of 15 June. The OF is already full, and Roman Anthony is down there making International League pitchers want to call in sick. Guy can take over RF right now and outperform Wilyer. CF and LF in Boston are set for half a decade. Devers is the DH for the next decade. I would ask for Anthony, but you aren’t getting Anthony. They shed Yoshida’s contract, which is a large contract for a guy that will be your 4th OFer (that, btw has a bad throwing arm and is limited to LF only, a position you aren’t playing when Duran is your starter). They free up RF for Anthony right now. And most importantly, they get an ace to make a run at NY, in a division that is somewhat down and they can climb back into.
Advantages for Houston – Not one, but TWO lefty hitting outfielders for the corners. Yes, we have to find a replacement for Framber and his innings, but lets be real, Framber Valdez is gone after this year. The Astros are not going to match the 6/135 someone is going to offer the guy, nor should they. We have gotten Framber’s best years, we don’t need to be paying him 25M when he is 36 and struggling to stay healthy and/or be a .500 pitcher. And if 2025 is not it (I don’t think they will have the pitching that is healthy to stay in it) you set up for 2026. A lineup with a well above average OBP guy like Yoshida, with Abreu, that still has Paredes, Walker, Pena, Diaz, and of course Yordan, all getting to reset for 2026, it looks a lot better and lets you hide Altuve in there a little easier as he continues his descent. And presumably with Javier back to be Robin to Hunter’s Batman, the rotation could get an offseason and maybe McCullers and Garcia have something to give you, maybe one of Gusto or Blubaugh takes a step, or maybe you just spend a little bit of that freed up money from Abreu and Montero to sign a mid level starter.
This puts Altuve back at 2B full time. It doesn’t leave space for Cam Smith to take an everyday job. It forces Dezenzo into part time duty resting the two lefty swingers in LF/RF on certain days. But sometimes things come out in the wash.
I just wonder what the Red Sox are doing that we are not. Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell came into the season 2 of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball. Campbell took a 10 year contract before he saw a pitch, and he is going to be the RoY. Roman Anthony is a consensus number 1 who at the age of 21 is killing AAA.
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I had just finished a too long post on the state of our organization, but alas, just as I was sending, our little island had a power outage and the Generac had not clicked in yet.
Short version. With Blanco, Wesneski and Arrighetti all gone, we don’t have a good rotation. And it will decimate the pen at some point. We also can’t hit.
We can’t trade Framber because we don’t have enough other guys to eat his innings. And Jim Crane has always insisted we won’t be sellers.
I think Joe is safe because he did not create the injuries. And the line ups are penciled in with the guys he has to work with.
Maybe we’ll end up at 71-91 and heads will roll after we play 162.
I hope the guys gut out a solid weekend against the M’s.
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Good morning Astro fans!
Joe Sullivan is now hitting .242/.457/.556/1.013 in Asheville.
Over 173 PA’a the OBP of .457 impresses me most.
Let’s get his lefty bat out of that bandbox and see what he can do in Corpus.
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Good morning Astro fans!
Joe Sullivan is now hitting .242/.457/.556/1.013 in Asheville.
Over 173 PA’a the OBP of .457 impresses me most.
Let’s get his lefty bat out of that bandbox and see what he can do in Corpus.
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Sullivan makes me float back to a guy who was in the Astros system back in the dark days on the early 10’s – Joe Sclafani. Joe always seemed to have a great OBP even while his BA was up and down, but never made it to the show. I think he had little power or speed and probably what held him back the most – he was not much of a fielder.
But yes – we need to get some lefty help.
Kind of funny that the team has gone about as left handed as ever on the pitching side this year – Hader, Okert, King and Sousa out of the bullpen and Framber, Gordon and Walter starting games with only Yordan (hurt) and Caratini (switch hitter) able to attack from the left at bat.
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Scrappy Joe is now the farm director for the Blue Jays.
The Astros need not 1 but probably 3 lefty bats. It’s ridiculous that Brown went into the season like this. They are just getting loaded by other teams right now.
I am never a fan of a guy that comes in with Walker’s career BB/K and batting average numbers. But you had to be optimistic about the HR and run producing potential. But hanging out at the Mendoza line for whats almost a 3rd of a season and being on pace to finish under 20 dingers? Singleton would have outperformed this, and at 10% the cost.
Speaking of Jon, he is not hitting for much average at AAA (don’t think that surprises anyone), but he does have 8 HR in 38 games, and triggered a clause he had in his contract that is going to make NY either promote him or attempt to trade him. Maybe signing a minor league deal with the team that has Pete Alonzo was not the best idea.
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Dan yes, Joe Sclafani was one of my favorite guys. And like Steven notes, he’s made a career in MLB.
Devin, if the new Joe keeps doing what he’s doing in Ashville, we’ll probably see him in Corpus this year.
We need a couple of good news stories to talk about.
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Dan yes, Joe Sclafani was one of my favorite guys. And like Steven notes, he’s made a career in MLB.
Devin, if the new Joe keeps doing what he’s doing in Ashville, we’ll probably see him in Corpus this year.
We need a couple of good news stories to talk about.
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I remain a big fan of Sclafani’s, but Sullivan is on the opposite end of the spectrum for hitters. He’s strong and fast. If it weren’t for Cam Smith he’d be the best athlete in our system from 2024 draftees. I’d like to see him against higher competition. I think elite fastballs inside and up in the zone are going to eat him up the same way they did Preston Tucker. Then again, if he learns to spoil/waste those pitches instead of missing them he could be successful. If he were in an organization that could actually teach hitting I’d feel better about him. It’s hard to sit here and complain about the swing and miss when everyone else is doing it too.
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Dana Brown today: We’re hoping to have Arrighetti back sometime in July.
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Mike Stanton leaves Space City Network. Too bad, as I enjoyed his sage advice.
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I agree Sarge. Maybe he was too candid, or honest.
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Blanco on the 15-day IL and Colton Gordon back up.
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My favorite thing about Jose Altuve last night was when he lifted a sac fly out to right field on an 0-2 count. If he starts hitting the ball consistently using the whole field, he’s going to get those home run pitches more often. Discipline.
Both teams used the pen quite a bit last night. Whitley is likely going to have to pitch in a meaningful situation again pretty soon.
Lance got thirteen outs, 8 via the strike out. Three walks. 91 pitches. I’m trying to convince myself that this is his first Spring Training since 2022. He’s pitched 12.2 minor league innings and 16.2 MLB innings. That’s after 900 days on the shelf. If he figures out how to throw ground balls again and can get up to 5 plus innings, he’ll gradually start helping the club.
Gusto gets a pretty good match up against Hancock. Might be time to put our other lefty behind the plate tonight and let Caratini DH. Problem is that as bad as Diaz has looked, he hits at home. I can’t figure out a way to get all three catchers in there without sitting Walker. We really have a dumb roster.
I sure like Ronel Blanco. He’s been a feel good story. He wants to play baseball. And now he’s on his way to the dreaded second opinion. Maybe he does not fully trust the Astro medical team. I can’t blame him.
We have meaningful Friday night baseball in late May!
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My favorite thing about Jose Altuve last night was when he lifted a sac fly out to right field on an 0-2 count. If he starts hitting the ball consistently using the whole field, he’s going to get those home run pitches more often. Discipline.
Both teams used the pen quite a bit last night. Whitley is likely going to have to pitch in a meaningful situation again pretty soon.
Lance got thirteen outs, 8 via the strike out. Three walks. 91 pitches. I’m trying to convince myself that this is his first Spring Training since 2022. He’s pitched 12.2 minor league innings and 16.2 MLB innings. That’s after 900 days on the shelf. If he figures out how to throw ground balls again and can get up to 5 plus innings, he’ll gradually start helping the club.
Gusto gets a pretty good match up against Hancock. Might be time to put our other lefty behind the plate tonight and let Caratini DH. Problem is that as bad as Diaz has looked, he hits at home. I can’t figure out a way to get all three catchers in there without sitting Walker. We really have a dumb roster.
I sure like Ronel Blanco. He’s been a feel good story. He wants to play baseball. And now he’s on his way to the dreaded second opinion. Maybe he does not fully trust the Astro medical team. I can’t blame him.
We have meaningful Friday night baseball in late May!
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Yes, I also loved Jose’s sac fly to right. It seems that was the first time in awhile that he’s sent a ball out that way, but FanGraphs says differently:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose-altuve/5417/spray-charts?type=battedball&position=2B
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AstroNut, I keep looking at those two clusters at short and third, where most of his 51.6% ground ball rate goes. And I counted 3 red dots in right and right center. His line drive rate of 12.9 % is easily the worst of his career. I don’t think he’s been trying to go to the right side. What is going over to the right side are mostly pop ups, more along the line of emergency hacks of stuff well off the plate. But he looked patient last night and hit the ball very hard three times. So I’m going to be optimistic. And if we start seeing more red dots the other way, and those two clusters where more than half of his balls in play have gone stop getting bigger, then that would be great.
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