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Astros 2025: In the Depths of Mediocrity

Back in college, I took a geology class as a science elective. I was pursuing an engineering degree, and I thought this course might tie into it. So far after 45+ years, it has not. But I do have one memory from that class that stays with me. Early in the semester the professor was using one of those overhead projectors – sliding 8-1/2” X 11” slides on to the top of it and having the images pop-up on the screen at the front of the room. He was talking about topography and showing side cuts of different well-known areas. “Here is a side profile of Mount Everest” (A big jagged high reaching graph) “Here is a profile of the Balcones Escarpment” (A smaller not as jagged graph).

And at the end he said, “Here is a profile of the Gulf Coast”. It would not surprise anyone who has lived here, that this was a straight horizontal line with no ups and downs extending across the slide. It solicited quite a few laughs from the students.

And yet I feel like that is a similar graph to the Astros 2025 season to date. They have never been more than 2 games under .500 to date, the last time at 8-10. Similarly, their nose bleed high has been 3 games over .500 at 16-13. After 32 of the 43 games this season, they have been exactly .500 or within one game of it up or down.

Given they have been in the most mediocre of the divisions, the AL West, where the top team, the Mariners are only at 23-19 and four of the five clubs are within 2 games of each other, mediocrity is keeping them competitive. But it is tough to get either too high or too low with a team that doesn’t lose enough to make you angry and doesn’t win enough to make you ecstatic.

It is easy to say, oh well, the Astros will be a much better team when their offense gets rolling. But what if it doesn’t get rolling. What if they are what they are? Or what if their offense gets rolling and their over producing pitching hits a speed bump at the same time. That has already happened to some extent for the starting pitching with the injuries to Spencer Arrighetti and Hayden Wesneski and the recent questionable performances from Ryan Gusto and Lance McCullers Jr.. What if the bullpen, which has been great overall to this point in the season, starts hiccupping itself?

The problem with mediocrity is that it sometimes prevents what must be done. The team is not bad enough to require a complete rebuild. If we just tweak it here and there that might be adequate. Maybe a Band-Aid will hold them until next year or next decade.

Are they lucky to be 1-1/2 games out of the division lead with an offense that is only eighth in the AL in runs scored per game (4.05)? Are they unlucky to be where they are while only allowing the 4th least runs per game (3.58) to date?

Bottomline – They are a mediocre team and unless something changes that is what they will continue to be.

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37 responses to “Astros 2025: In the Depths of Mediocrity”

  1. I imagine Brown is already testing the market for Framber. At any rate, I’ve pulled for this team since their beginning, through mostly mediocre teams and bad general managers and will continue to do so.

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  5. At the end of May in 2024, Hunter Brown had a 6.39 ERA.

    This afternoon a buddy of mine in Galveston sent me a screen shot of FOX 26 showing Walker’s and Yordan’s stats to date with the headline “NOT GOOD ENOUGH”. In mid May of last year, Alex Bregman had similar sad stats.

    I noticed the empty seats for the KC series. Sure, school is ending, parents are busy, but those announced crowds in the 28K range were BS. Fans are fickle. Fake fans are already bailing.

    Maybe it’s old age, but I’m getting more patient. I’m appreciating Jeremy Pena and Jake Meyers and especially Zach Dezenzo forcing his way into games after getting blindsided by the Cam Smith hoopla. Zach’s stats over the past 28 days: .298/.385/.456/.841.

    Look at our pen. They might just be good. How about Victor Caratini? And recent outings from Framber and Blanco.

    It’s got to be hard to hit when a righty line up faces almost nothing but righty pitching day in and day out. But some of our guys are doing it. And one of these days, four or five guys will be doing it. And Jose will hit as will Yordan and even Christian Walker too. No doubt, this might be a tough weekend for the Astros. Things will likely get worse before better. Yeah, we do have problems. My biggest gripe right now is that our GM could not build a club that included a representative number of left-handed hitters. And he does not seem overly concerned.

    Anyway, we could be that mediocre team. But I’m not accepting it yet.

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    • On the radio today I heard an advertisement pitching new Silverados starting at $58k. I think that might influence the amount of empty seats at the ballpark more than anything else.

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    • According to the Astros prospect analysis, Whitcomb has played all infield position plus the corner outfield positions. According to the analysis, he is best suited for second base. He could play there when Altuve is in LF or DH.

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      • The problem there though is that the Astros just committed to paying Rodgers 2 million for the season when they did not release him last Friday. Then we’ve got Dubon. My guess is the Astros remain concerned about his Whitcomb’s defense. I wish he was a lefty hitter. He’d be on the roster today.

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  8. That’s a good win. The three run dinger by Walker must have felt pretty good.

    Four innings from McCullers, 5 baserunners, 83 pitches. Just 2 K’s. Can he come up with a strike out pitch? Can he go five innings?

    We’re 5-3 during this 17 game stretch. That’s better than mediocre.

    Today’s challenge is beating Mahle with his 1.47 ERA. Where the heck did that come from?

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  9. Thoughts

    Daveb – I’m hopeful they will get beyond mediocre – they need to rip off even a 5 or 6 game winning streak to get me to buy into that

    I followed last night’s game on my phone – I won’t join in on these “other” platforms since I pay thru the nose for cable and the Astros

    Walker’s 410 ft homer just dies not look majestic on a 4” X 6” screen. But good to “see” that he hit two other balls 109 mph and above

    Will Lance show an “out” pitch like suggested above? He has to show a bit better control and get folks to chase a little out of the zone – is this going to improve? Well last night was far better than his last start

    Good to see two hits out of Cam Smith including the one that started the scoring

    Hader shows again that he pitches differently when no save is on the line. But that’s ok – he’s tough when he needs to be

    So – Astros if you are not going to be mediocre go get these next two games in Arlington and beyond

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    • Dan, what offends me about the exclusive, rather than inclusive Apple TV racket is that I already pay 139.95 to MLB for a full season package. So no way I’m giving Apple anything. I watched GameTracker on the phone too.

      I’m with you about that 5 or 6 game streak. But I’m willing to get through this 17 game stretch about where we are now and then hopefully see guys like Yordan and Walker settle in. The rotation seems to be our biggest concern going forward. Who else is on the horizon? Brandon Walter anyone?

      I’ll be okay with a split in Arlington.

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  10. I’m with you on the Apple TV rip off. Glad we came back after being down late in the game. That’s a positive.

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  12. We did not quite manage mediocrity last night.

    Even when the bats have been largely silent, the club has played pretty tidy baseball lately. Not last night.

    Initially, I was thinking Blanco let me down, but the guy went six and gave up only three runs which qualifies as a quality start. I thought it was pretty clear that after the long third, he was not the same. And I was hoping Joe would settle for five innings of one run ball from Ronel.

    But the dagger was Jose flailing at a totally non-competitive pitch that would have loaded the bases with two outs in the 7th, a pitch that was a foot off the plate and maybe a couple of inches off the ground. With Paredes and then a revived Christian Walker due up next we had a real shot until Jose gave it away.

    Altuve is the biggest problem on this club right now. My guess is that he’ll hit again, but he certainly needs Yordan back in the line up. I don’t know how a 14 year veteran with his pedigree can so hopelessly lose his control at the plate. He’s lost all pitch recognition ability.

    I’m also wondering why the Astros kept Brandon Rodgers last week when they could have saved most of two million dollars by releasing him. I know his hard hit rate is high, but his BABip is .333. Is he just a warning track power guy removed from Denver?

    Ryan Gusto looked out of sorts again last night, and maybe a bit discouraged. He had a solid April for a team that needed innings. Then he got beat up by Kansas City and lost his starters job. I’m glad Hunter and Spenser were not given such a quick hook.

    Pena needs a day off.

    I sure hope we get the stopper version of Framber today. Seems he was going to open in TB but has been moved up. If he goes backwards, it could screw up the last 7 days of this long stretch.

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  13. Once we got into the 6th, our guys were looking like they might get no hit today.

    Framber pitched well. He threw some ground balls in the 4th that found holes.

    The two out 3 run homer by Paredes in the 8th might be the biggest hit of the year. He’s our MVP so far by far. He’s probably meant more to us than Tucker has to the Cubs. Per Baseball Reference Isaac has a 1.9 WAR. Tucker 1.6.

    I read somewhere today that the Astros have gotten more production out of the 9th slot than any other team in the league. Zach has gotten his OBP up to .336 and his wRC+ to 101.

    We’re 6-4 in the 17 game stretch so far.

    Trying to be positive. It would be fun if these guys could collectively hit.

    Colton Gordon gets the nod tomorrow.

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    • If we won 60% of our games the rest of the way we’d end up with 93 wins. I think I’d take that and it would win the division. 6-4 doesn’t sound that impressive, but 7 of those 10 were against a solid Royals team and the hated Rangers.

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  15. Yeah, Wesneski skipped a start in the rotation after he dropped 4 mph in velocity while in KC and then went right back to the mound after a 12 day rest. And during that time there was no indication of minor, significant or even career ending injury? There must be technology to keep this kind of a scenario from happening.

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  16. I’m starting to keep an eye on Joseph Sullivan. He’s a tourist with a .451 OBP and a .985 OPS. He’s not hitting for average at this point, but he’s always shown strong on base ability. An outfielder. He’s also a lefty bat.

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  21. Good win for the guys tonight. I was watching the Sports Map Hou pod cast tonight and one of the topics that was brought up was how bad Altuve, Walker, and Diaz are in hitting. I guess that tonight’s game just backs that commentary up as they were collectively 0 for 12 with 2 K’s. Everybody else in the line up had at least 1 hit with Pena 3, Paredes 2, Meyers 2 and Smith 2. Gordon held his own with 3 runs, 5 hits, 7 K’s and ZERO walks. Not bad at all. Altuve did make a good play on a pop up but in the 9th but not so good base running by Chas and TB had 7 SB’s on us. That is absolutely pathetic.

    I just don’t know what to think of this team with all of the things we are seeing. With almost a third of the season gone I’m surprised that we are doing as well as we are. Really good starting pitching has definitely been our bread and butter.

    As it was mentioned why in the world did we waste 2MM on Rogers who has shown us zip zero, with his 205 BA and 40% K rate. I’d also look at trading Chas at the deadline but don’t know what we could get for him. Time to bring up some players who just might be hungry enough to contribute.

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    • Z, as I tried to type initially, I have a good vibe. It will be a battle, but formally hopeless guys are picking up guys that have become hopeless. And a couple of news guys are seemingly getting the drift.

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  22. Walter tomorrow? If he does well, please acknowledge my May 17 mention. If he fails miserably though, forget I brought it up. I have a good vide though.

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    • Who knows. He strikes me as a guy that can go 5 innings and 2 runs, keep you in it and get it to a good bullpen with a shot. He also strikes me as a guy that might go 2 innings and 5 runs, cause a long bullpen day and make a ho hum offense try and play catch up. I think he is capable of both.

      Tampa’s offense kind of looks like our offense. Some guys that can work a pitcher, but the overarching effect is a lot of swing and miss out of the zone and a reliance on the occasional big inning. This happens when you let expensive players go and replace them with less expensive guys. This bodes well for Mr. Walter and his first big league game in 2 years. He probably won’t get jumped if he has early inning jitters.

      Interesting case study in Taylor Walls. This is a guy playing SS with a .191 BA and 1 HR. Yet, he has a 1.5 WAR. An excellent RF/9 for a SS is 4. Even 3.5 is considered handling the job. JP has a career 3.77, and he is considered an above average SS. Walls is at 5.10 this year, he must be getting to balls hit out in RF or something.

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      • Taylor Walls is the kind of guy I’d get tired of seeing at the plate if he happened to be on my team. Jake Marisnick did that to me. He sure was good in the outfield though.

        Roger Metzger hung around for more than a decade and produced a 68 OPS+ and a 3.5 WAR over 4676 PA’s. Couldn’t they find a bat?

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      • Taylor Walls is the kind of guy I’d get tired of seeing at the plate if he happened to be on my team. Jake Marisnick did that to me. He sure was good in the outfield though.

        Roger Metzger hung around for more than a decade and produced a 68 OPS+ and a 3.5 WAR over 4676 PA’s. Couldn’t they find a bat?

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