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Astros’ early season: 10 Questions

We have the smartest baseball readers in the world. Maybe our world is not that big, but you folks always have great ideas. Today we are looking for your answers, thoughts and opinions relative to the following 10 questions.

28 year old Kyle Tucker is off to a strong start with the Cubs – .313 BA/.427 OBP/1.027 OPS/5 HRs/ 18 RBIs. The Astros return in that trade are:

  • 26 year old Isaac Paredes – .246 BA/ .355 OBP/ .755 OPS/ 3 HRs/ 9 RBIs – patient at the plate and playing a good 3B
  • 22 year old Cam Smith – .214 BA/ .298 OBP/ .631 OPS/ 1 HR/ 6 RBIs – struggling a bit at the plate, but playing a good right field considering he is learning on the fly.
  • 27 year old Hayden Wesneski – 3 starts / 1 W- 1 L/ 4.00 ERA / 18 IP/ 21 Ks – three solid starts between 5 and 7 innings with an ability to miss bats.

How do you feel about this trade so far?

 What is more likely to happen?

  • Cam Smith gets sent down for more seasoning
  • Jose Altuve goes back to second base
  • Chas McCormick is playing for someone else this year

The Astros alpha male ace pitcher is:

  • Framber Valdez, who has been the opening day starter 2022 thru 2025 (but not likely in 2026) or…
  • Hunter Brown, who has been mowing them down in 2025

Who last started an opening day game other than Framber for the Astros?

What are you looking forward to the most?

  • The return of Lance McCullers Jr. (maybe one more rehab start on 19-Apr-25 away)
  • The return of Spencer Arrighetti – is expected back mid-May or so
  • The return of Forrest Whitley – may be back after one more rehab appearance – end of this week
  • The return of Cristian Javier – sometime after the All-Star break

What has been the most pleasant surprise so far in 2025?

  • The performance of Bryan King out of the bullpen (9 appearances / 8.1 IP/ 0.00 ERA / 0.600 WHIP/ 13 Ks)
  • The performance of Josh Hader (7 appearances / 9 IP/ 1W-0L/ 4 saves/ 1.00 ERA / 0.666 WHIP/ 12 Ks) – gave up a run in his first game – nothing since
  • The performance of Steven Okert (6 appearances/7.2 IP/ 1 save/ 1.17 ERA/ 0.391 WHIP/ 11 Ks)

What is your biggest disappointment in the early going?

31 year old Alex Bregman is currently hitting .321 BA/ .359 OBP/ .929 OPS/ league leading 7 doubles/ 4 HRs/ 18 RBIs.

  • Is he worth that 3 year/ $120 million (with opt-outs and deferred payments) contract?
  • Do you wish he had taken the Astros 6 yrs/ $156 million contract?

You blame the Astros very slow start hitting (.220 BA/ .308 OBP/ .634 OPS/ 3.82 runs per game) on:

  • The players who aren’t hitting
  • The hitting coaches Alex Cintron and Troy Snitker who don’t seem to have the same magic wand as the pitching coaches
  • The manager Joe Espada, who is picking the wrong guys to start
  • The GM Dana Brown who put this roster together
  • The front office stat nerds, who may not be as cutting edge as the old regime

I think the Astros are headed for:

  • Better days
  • A complete collapse
  • A long season followed by a short playoff appearance
  • A close but no cigar attempt to make the playoffs

As always – have fun with this one.

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24 responses to “Astros’ early season: 10 Questions”

  1. I am still happy that the club traded Tucker and received a decent return for him. If they had held on to him, they were risking a poor season from him and a probable diminished return.

    Cam will probably be sent down for more seasoning.

    Hunter is the alpha male. Framber, on the other hand, is a mental mess.

    Zack was the lest opening day starter other than Framber.

    I want to see Forrest finally make an appearance on the mound for the big club.

    King is a pleasant surprise.

    Blanco is the biggest disappointment.

    Bregman is worthy of his current contract. I am happy that the Astros chose to move on from him.

    I blame the players who are not hitting.

    I believe the Astros are headed for a close but no cigar attempt to make the playoffs.

    I see them as a .500 team currently. I hope they prove me wrong as I predicted 91 wins earlier.

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  2. I fully expect Tucker to be worth more than the players we got back in 2025, but knowing we were losing him next winter I’m still ok with the return.

    I haven’t seen enough to make a guess on the Cam/Altuve/Chas situation. I think Chas plays himself into a regular 7th-9th inning job. He only forces Altuve to 2nd if Rodgers plays worse than Dubon.

    I think Framber still gets top billing in the clubhouse, but you have to think Brown’s star is quickly rising.

    I like Zanuda’s Greinke guess. Given injury histories it sounds right.

    I think Javier’s return is my most anticipated because I see him as the highest ceiling for contribution.

    I’m going to cheat and say all three of those – King, Hader, and Okert should share the spot. Hader could have crumbled due to his usage but hasn’t.

    Biggest disappointment is the toughest to answer. It’s a small sample so I’m hopeful, but for the money Walker probably takes it. Diaz and Blanco were good enough last year for us to expect something better. Meanwhile, Paul Goldschmidt is looking good in pinstripes.

    Bregman is in a contract year again and wouldn’t be worth $40M to the Astros. If we could have brought him back for $27.5M it still probably wouldn’t have been the right value, but maybe we could have stomached it. I hope he plays great in Boston, but the Astros can’t afford contracts like that unless the luxury tax goes away. Having said all that, my comment about Goldschmidt also needs to be qualified with the admission that he’s reached year-to-year age in his career.

    Yes, I blame the coaches frequently, but these are professional hitters and they do bad all on their own.

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  3. Hi Chip, good to see you back at it again this week.

    1. Excellent trade so far. We got a starter, a third baseman and at least for now, a right fielder with obvious potential. Those guys will collectively cost us 10 or 11 million next year. If Smith figures it out, it will have been a great haul for the Tucker rental.
    2. Jose is likely worse at second than he is in left. It’s going to be a challenging 5 years with him. If he fades at the plate, it’ll be painful to watch. And as long as Yordan is around, Jose can’t be hidden at DH. Chas or Jake will be gone by next year. If Jake reverts back to his historical offensive production, Chas will play more. So it’s hard to say yet what might happen. Cam will get a long look. He’s got to hit by the end of May though. He’s not getting around on the ball.
    3. Hunter Brown. No doubt. Framber is too erratic, and has not produced enough in big game situations. It will be interesting to see what he gets paid. Has he gained weight this year?
    4. I’d be guessing: Verlander?
    5. Tough question. I’ll take Spenser based on his not so significant injury. We have not had good results in patching up guys with TJ injuries. But at the same time, if Lance has a couple of healthy years in him it would be a great boost. It might even allow us to move Framber at the trade deadline.
    6. King, no doubt.
    7. Yainer. I just did not expect him to struggle so much at this point in time. But he will figure it out. When most all of the team is not hitting, nobody gets much to hit.
    8. Bregman is gone. He did not want to be back. He’s in a packed line up. But at some point, he will slump. And his 6 year deal in Houston would not have aged well.
    9. The players are the guys that are not hitting. Most of those guys are too old to learn how to hit now. And those that have hit in the past will put it together sooner than later. I’ll say this though. If the Astro players still collectively underperform based on their historical stats in 2025, then Joe could well go home when the season ends. The club would have to crap out totally for a change to be made during the season.
    10. I think a grind of a season followed by short post season stint. It seems like there are just too many more athletic clubs in MLB today than the Astros.

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  4. Hi Chip, good to see you back at it again this week.

    1. Excellent trade so far. We got a starter, a third baseman and at least for now, a right fielder with obvious potential. Those guys will collectively cost us 10 or 11 million next year. If Smith figures it out, it will have been a great haul for the Tucker rental.
    2. Jose is likely worse at second than he is in left. It’s going to be a challenging 5 years with him. If he fades at the plate, it’ll be painful to watch. And as long as Yordan is around, Jose can’t be hidden at DH. Chas or Jake will be gone by next year. If Jake reverts back to his historical offensive production, Chas will play more. So it’s hard to say yet what might happen. Cam will get a long look. He’s got to hit by the end of May though. He’s not getting around on the ball.
    3. Hunter Brown. No doubt. Framber is too erratic, and has not produced enough in big game situations. It will be interesting to see what he gets paid. Has he gained weight this year?
    4. I’d be guessing: Verlander?
    5. Tough question. I’ll take Spenser based on his not so significant injury. We have not had good results in patching up guys with TJ injuries. But at the same time, if Lance has a couple of healthy years in him it would be a great boost. It might even allow us to move Framber at the trade deadline.
    6. King, no doubt.
    7. Yainer. I just did not expect him to struggle so much at this point in time. But he will figure it out. When most all of the team is not hitting, nobody gets much to hit.
    8. Bregman is gone. He did not want to be back. He’s in a packed line up. But at some point, he will slump. And his 6 year deal in Houston would not have aged well.
    9. The players are the guys that are not hitting. Most of those guys are too old to learn how to hit now. And those that have hit in the past will put it together sooner than later. I’ll say this though. If the Astro players still collectively underperform based on their historical stats in 2025, then Joe could well go home when the season ends. The club would have to crap out totally for a change to be made during the season.
    10. I think a grind of a season followed by short post season stint. It seems like there are just too many more athletic clubs in MLB today than the Astros.

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  5. Let’s see – a couple of corrections

    Devin – that was Sarge’s guess of Greinke, not Zanuda

    Daveb – Chip helped me post this but I wrote this one – but I feel honored you thought it was Chip worthy

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  6. The problem with this team is they try and operate smarter than everyone. In a vacuum when you look at each one of these deals it would appear the Astros made the better choice. Springer has not lived up to his post Astros contract. Correa has not. Jury will be out on Bregman, but I think we all suspect he won’t. What was once an infield of Yuli, Altuve, Correa and Bregman is now Walker, Rodgers/Dubon, Pena and Paredes. Currently they have a fine IF, but it’s still not THAT infield all in their prime. It’s just that players don’t stay in their prime. Same could be said from the OF – while they weren’t all here together, cycling through Michael Brantley, George Springer, Reddick, Marwin, some guys just had prime years here that they can’t do today if they are even still in the game today. And we’ve replaced it with not quite those guys.

    The one exception I think will end up being Tucker. I think it was a bad move. I wanted the Astros to make that 12/450 offer to him. I wanted them to start negotiations. Now rumors persist the Cubs are ready to offer 11-12 years and up to 500M.

    Correa, Springer, Bregman et al, they will have fine careers. They will all have really good baseball reference pages their kids and grand kids will see. Heck, their kids and grand kids and probably great great great grand kids are gonna have a different standard of living than the rest of us. Great for them. But they won’t be standing on a podium in Cooperstown. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t think Yordan will either. Of all the players we went through, its obviously JV (who likely will opt for the Tigers hat), our guy Altuve, and Kyle Tucker. I thought Correa would have a chance at one point, but it’s obvious that bad wheel that made him fail multiple physicals is what it is, and while he is still even on a bad wheel better than Pena, Pena has one thing on him – the most important ability – availability. I really don’t want to talk about the cost difference, which is significant, because not paying your stars is my point.

    I feel like thats where we are. The next HOF talent that comes along, well, we will enjoy those 5-6 years in Houston, but don’t buy your forever home. Just rent. Is the inflationary nature of these contracts for the truly impactful players going to cause the Astros to play like a true “mid-market” team? Are we destined to keep our stars only if they are willing to sign the contracts that Yordan and Altuve have? If Yordan does indeed have 3 seasons of 140+ games a year, is there ANY chance he re-signs?

    As for the current state of affairs, the Spencer injury hurts a bit. But this team has a good chance to get rolling. These batting averages won’t stay deflated forever. Yainer will start hitting. Walker will start hitting. I am concerned about 7-9 but what teams aren’t? 8-10 probably isn’t the start any of us were hoping for, but its not a sky is falling start. Framber’s Jekyll and Hyde has to be a bit concerning.

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  7. But let me get a more concise answer to your questions –

    See above about how I feel about the Tucker trade. But if you were gonna trade him, they got about as good a return as you could get. I am not disappointed in the least bit in those 3 players.

    If Chas hits better than .250 he will be traded before the end of the season. They can give anyone 1 start a week and 4 defensive replacement appearances, but there are enough teams out there hurting for OF help that Chas is an upgrade for that someone probably offers a bullpen upgrade to us for at some point.

    Hunter Brown is now the ace. He has put an exclamation point on that.

    I don’t know that Javier is back this year. If I knew that, I would say he is the biggest upgrade coming. I’ll be very interested in McCullers final line. I haven’t watched him pitch yet but reports are good. It’s just how many innings are you really going to get?

    Hader is the best surprise – because it hasn’t looked accidental. King looks like the same pitcher as before – which isn’t bad – but its so small sample that it could just be a few advantageous matchups and a little luck.

    Biggest disappointment is Yainer – but Walker is a close 2nd. Yainer’s entire stat line is built is off one blowout game. He hasn’t helped at all. Walker’s has been more noticeable – because Walker bats ahead of Yainer he is ending a lot of innings for us before Yainer has a chance to disappoint. The thing for me though is Walker is actually making good contact, and the last week or so he has settled in on his selectivity. Yainer is still just struggling on the same stuff that got him out the last 2 years, and pitchers have figured out he isn’t making the adjustment, and he is seeing even more of it. One of the best I’ve ever seen at hitting fastballs. That doesn’t matter if they just aren’t going to throw you fastballs.

    Of course I wish he took the contract. Bregman is a discernable upgrade over Rodgers or Dubon, with Rodgers likely not even making this team if Alex was here. And it’s not my money. But if I were not a fan but the guy responsible for building the team, I don’t know if 6 years at the salary is something I would want to commit my finite resources to – but as a fan I want him here because today, right now, Paredes could be at 2nd and one more tough out could be in this lineup – and it’s not my money.

    I don’t know. I don’t have enough information as I can’t see what is happening in the video room or the batting cage before game. I just know as a fan, Snitker didn’t get a 3/60M contract to hit. Once you are at Christian Walker’s level and you get that contract, not hitting is on you. Snitker may own a little bit of Yainer or Pena’s inability to adjust to breaking pitches, but its not like they can’t figure that out themselves too.

    I am going to say a repeat – long season of ups and downs followed by another 1st round elimination caused by the fact they, again, can’t produce in a 3 game set when one of those guys pitching in that short series is a dominant pitcher this lineup can’t generate runs against.

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    • We’ve been trotting out the “it’s not my money” line for a few years, but I think we have reached the point it’s not wholely true. Sure, some of us only check the boxscores, but anyone who attends a game, buys merchandaise, watched on TV, or even listens on the radio is factoring into these decisions. If you’ve followed the Pirates’ finances saga you’d know that poor attendance and lower media money means they have only been in the black in years they made the playoffs despite revenue sharing. Obviously we have to trust that reported numbers are true, but if we assume they are then we have to consider that Crane is only spending the money we give him and not that from his personal/other investment fortunes.

      However, if Crane wanted to turn around and sell the team tomorrow he could make such a huge profit from his initial $680 purchase price…

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      • I get that for sure. It’s not by accident that my annual subscription on MLB.tv is 130 a year just for the Astros (I took the single team price, so I can’t even watch anyone else). Now with my vet discount its down around 90, but the rates are insane. We attend 2-3 games a year on average, and I get us pretty good seats usually behind a dugout, and its a few hundred every time we go for our 3 seats, some concessions, and maybe a souvenir or 2.

        But I also go to Atlanta when Houston comes to town. I also go to Tampa when Houston comes to town, since both of them are much closer to where I live. And while not as much as Houston, they are both still pretty expensive trips.

        I would say the cost of things are passed on to us, so, yes, it is our money. But its a league wide issue. I don’t know how many more Soto/Ohtani contracts can go out, or even Tucker/Vlad contracts, before baseball becomes too expensive for me to take in just 5-6 games a year.

        I know when I was a kid, my father and his 50k a year salary in the 80s could take me as much as he wanted to make that drive to the Dome from Beaumont. Me and 150k salary have to parcel when I’m taking my son, and it would be that way even if I lived right there in Houston.

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  8. Thoughts

    • It sure hacked me off to get three hitters into the game last night with a guy on first and third and to not have Yordan Alvarez up. The guy hit a couple lasers Monday night then squared one up on Tuesday night for a homer, but just when I think he is starting to hit, we give the guy who has mostly sat as a DH a day game off before a day off. Not Walker. Not Diaz. But Yordan. HACKED. ME. OFF.
    • If I was answering these questions.
      • 1. The Astros did very well in the Tucker trade. Now looking back – should the Astros have traded Tucker at all? I understand where Steven is coming from plus Tucker being a body type that might last a long time in the game. But if they have a certain number in their head and they are not coming off it no matter what (kind of like Yordan’s unnecessary day off) – then I guess there was nothing else to do.
      • 2. I think the Astros will trade Chas. Or if Jake crashes a bit – trade Jake. But I think Chas is more intriguing.
      • 3. I like Hunter. A lot. I think he has that JV bulldog ability to power through problems that Framber does not have. He is the ace now. Framber is a very good #2 – even with a couple dips along the way.
      • 4. I did not know it until I looked it up to do this quiz – but Greinke was the last pitcher to open before Framber. That feels like miles ago.
      • 5. I am very interested in seeing Lance back here. The last time he pitched for us (small sample) in 2022, he was 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA. The last time he pitched significantly was 2021 – 13-5, 3.16 ERA. When healthy (which should be carved on his tombstone) he has been a very good pitcher. And we can always use one of those.
      • 6. All three are surprising me. Hader is the most critical of these because of when he pitches. But he looks much looser / better to me and in some ways that is a surprise.
      • 7. Walker is disappointing me the most because he has been one of the most consistent middle of the order hitters the last three seasons. Is he trying too hard? Did he come back too soon from his oblique injury? Hopefully a month from now it won’t matter. He’ll be back to who he is.
      • 8. In the realm of “it’s not my money” I would have liked Bregman back. In the realm of what it would mean to the team and their budget from about 2028 onward – not so much.
      • 9. I will say this about the hitting coaches. I did not like the hitting philosophy in 2024 – where even normally patient hitters like Bregman were not taking pitches and were not working pitchers. It seemed like everyone other than Tucker had a reduction in their walk %. I am also bothered by them not being able to get Yainer and Jeremy out of this fishing for sliders world they live and die in. I also am confused on how the pitching coaches keep making lemonade from lemon Pledge, while the hitting coaches seem to take former all stars and MVPs and they drop off the earth. But I do appreciate that these hitters are all well compensated and that there is plenty of tools (video/data) available to them if they put in the time. So, it is the hitters, but I was hoping they might bring in someone with better credentials for the hitting coach or coaches.
      • 10. I think this team will sneak into the playoffs and wander home for the winter after an ALDS loss.

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    • About Diaz and Pena fishing for those sliders… The coaches SHOULD get them in the batter’s box and set the pitching machine to throw nothing but sliders to get these two to recognize the break and hold off swinging at them. This is where Beltran showed off his acumen in hitting. Recall, back in 2017 during the playoffs, that he had the team commit to batting practice where the batters would face a pitching machine set for throwing fastballs from a closer setup rather than 60′ 6″ away. Correa was the one who told this marvelous story.

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  9. How do I feel about the Tucker trade so far? I liked it when it happened. I like it better now. I think Cam Smith should be in AAA from the start to give him the confidence and experience he hasn’t gotten up to now.

    Who is the Alpha male pitcher? In actuality it is Brown, but the league still thinks it is Framber. That is why they should trade him right now for a trio of young studs like they got for Tucker and build their team of the future. In a month they will have more pitchers and they can bring up Blubaugh right now to complete their rotation and move Brown to the top spot. There are teams right now who need a TOR starter and would pay a lot for Valdez.

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  10. I am looking forward to LMJ’s return because of the history and because of the work it took for him to return.

    Josh Hader’s performance is the reason the Astros have any chance to get back to .500 ball.

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  11. My biggest disappointment of the early going is the performance of Yainer Diaz. They leaned on him and he has bailed.

    Talking about Bregman is a waste of my time.

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  12. The cause of the Astros bad hitting is bad hitting by almost every hitter.

    I hope the Astros are headed for: a better 2026.

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  13. Crane is 71 now. He’s won a couple of World Series titles. Maybe at this point he’s content to put a marketable team on the field annually, but does not feel the need or have the passion to spend what it might take to win the whole thing again. I wonder what Tilman Fertitta might do if he owned the team?

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  14. Some side thoughts here that are related….

    • Steven said above “Heck, their (Bregman, Correa, Springer,etc) kids and grand kids and probably great great great grand kids are gonna have a different standard of living than the rest of us.” Funny I was just reading about one of the greatest fortunes ever – the Vanderbilts – and how quickly they squandered it. You go down a couple generations and you have people that are more talented in spending money than making it.
    • Which brings me to daveb saying that Crane is 71. He named his son Jared the president of the Astros in November 2019 and “reassigned” Reid Ryan. It feels like I should be looking for Jared on the back of a milk carton. Sometimes you have a situation like the Texans where it looks like Cal is making better decisions than his father and then you have a situation like the Astros where you have to wonder what happens down the line. Will this “fortune” of a contender disappear after a little while, because the father wanted to get his son involved in the family business and perhaps the passion and the talent aren’t there?

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    • Well I missed or ignored or forgot about Jared’s posting. It will be hard for this team to win it all again in the coming years. Without high draft picks, flawless trading and just plain luck, rebuilding a flawed system minor league system will be a heck of a challenge. An example: We don’t have any lefties in the system that can hit. I think I read a couple of days ago the Mariners have 7 top 100 guys in their system. We sure don’t. And as much as I can’t argue about trading Tucker, in him, we did have access to one of the most elite guys in the game. World Series teams need a guy or two like him and an almost bullet proof pitching staff. And like it or not, as much as we all love Jose Altuve, he’ll be dragging us down. Sure it’s a very small sample, but as Dan pointed out earlier in the week, our top hitter to date has a negative WAR overall.

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  15. Just noticed Forrest Whitley’s line from last night. 3 walks, 2 hits, 3 strike outs and just one run over 35 pitches. 1 inning pitched. I think the Astros were hoping to bring him up this weekend.

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  16. Ryan Gusto pitched well and got a win, Hader was great in a one-inning save. Cam Smith hit two HRs and 4 RBIs and the Astros beat the Padres tonight.

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  17. When your rookie hope turns in a great night, it’s encouraging. And honestly, I’m not sure how much longer Cam Smith is going to require a defensive replacement in right field. He fills the gap with his speed. He’s got an arm. He went back on an eventual 2 run homer last night that he almost pulled out of the crowd. He looked like he’s done it before. But he hasn’t. Only question at this point is whether he’ll hit enough right now. But he’s certainly earned the right to keep playing everyday.

    Ryan Gusto threw just 68 pitches, 51 over the plate, and somehow got through 5 innings giving up two runs, 9 hits, no walks. 60% of his pitches were 4-seamers. I’m sure that was not his idea, but I’m hoping the pitch mix gets more diverse going forward.

    Sometimes I see a pretty darn good rotation developing over the next couple of months. Depending on what Wesneski and LMJ do, Gusto and his strike throwing ability might be a big help in the pen.

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  18. When your rookie hope turns in a great night, it’s encouraging. And honestly, I’m not sure how much longer Cam Smith is going to require a defensive replacement in right field. He fills the gap with his speed. He’s got an arm. He went back on an eventual 2 run homer last night that he almost pulled out of the crowd. He looked like he’s done it before. But he hasn’t. Only question at this point is whether he’ll hit enough right now. But he’s certainly earned the right to keep playing everyday.

    Ryan Gusto threw just 68 pitches, 51 over the plate, and somehow got through 5 innings giving up two runs, 9 hits, no walks. 60% of his pitches were 4-seamers. I’m sure that was not his idea, but I’m hoping the pitch mix gets more diverse going forward.

    Sometimes I see a pretty darn good rotation developing over the next couple of months. Depending on what Wesneski and LMJ do, Gusto and his strike throwing ability might be a big help in the pen.

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