Astros 2025: 3 reasons to  worry & 3 reasons to not…

Dan P has been around Houston a long time.  How long has that been?

  • Before The Grand Parkway was partially built
  • Before Beltway 8 was started and completed
  • Before Loop 610 was completed
  • Back when you had to drive through the streets of downtown to get onto I-45 and take that south to Galveston
  • Back when Colt .45 stadium was still sitting in the parking lot of the new sparkly Astrodome
  • Back when the Astrodome was new and sparkly

You get it. It was a long time ago…1966 to be clear.

And maybe I am not going back to 1966 with this, but it has been a long time since I had so much trouble figuring out how I feel about an Astros team.

At times they seem to be starting to find themselves followed by a quick turnaround where they seemed to lose what they found. Their starting pitching looks great and then Spencer Arrighetti gets the freak injury. Their bullpen pitches solid then they urp up a 5-0 lead with 4 outs to go. The hitting goes crazy with 16 hits and 14 runs, then dips down to 3 hits and 1 run the next day. They are only 2-1/2 games out of first place, they are only one game out of last in the AL West entering Sunday.

What is one to think?

Well, there are multiple reasons to be jumping off the bridge and also reasons for staying pat and waiting for the Astros’ playoff ship to reach port.

Three Reasons to Worry About the Astros

  1. The offense lost two big cogs in Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. The offense is underperforming, and maybe this is just who they are – a below average offense that is below average in every way you can imagine.  .218 BA (10th in AL), .306 OBP (10th), .625 OPS (12th), 3.79 runs/gm (T-9th), and 11 HRS (11th).
  2. The starting pitching has performed quite well up to now, but….the depth of the rotation is getting greatly tested with the injury to Arrighetti and having to fill in with a pitcher like Ryan Gusto, who is not stretched out. Counting on Lance McCullers Jr. to come back and save things? Really? Luis Garcia? J.P. France? Cristian Javier? Will any of them be back before the Astros are playing irrelevant games?
  3. The bullpen entered the season without Ryan Pressly (now in Chicago), Seth Martinez (Marlins minors), Caleb Ferguson (Pirates), Forrest Whitley (IL) and Kaleb Ort (IL). Since the start of the season, they have lost Rafael Montero (traded to the Braves) and Ryan Gusto (moved to the rotation). They have performed good to middling so far, but losing arms in the bullpen hurts directly. And having a pitcher not stretched out in the rotation forces the bullpen to be stretched thin.

Three Reasons to Emulate Alfred E. Neuman – What Me Worry….

  1. What was the Astros record after 16 games in 2024? 5-11 (It is 8-8 now). Who ended up winning the AL West in 2024? The Astros. When is the last time the Astros missed the playoffs? 2016. What have the Astros done since 2016? 2 World Series championships, 4 WS appearances, 7 ALCS appearances, 8 playoff appearances. They have not stayed home the last 8 seasons and they don’t intend to start now.
  2. The Astros first 8 games this season they scored 18 runs – 2.25 runs per game. The last 8 games they scored 42 runs or 5.25 runs/game. They not only will hit better – they already are hitting better and that could make them a dangerous team.
  3. Yes, the Astros may have some challenges with both their starting staff and their bullpen, but they have certainly shown the ability to take other people’s discards or not so highly considered pitchers picked up in the draft or signed as International free agents. Just look at 2024 when pitchers like Framber Valdez (IFA), Ronel Blanco (IFA), Hunter Brown (5th rd), Spencer Arrighetti (6th rd), Bryan Abreu (IFA), Tayler Scott (Astros were his 11th organization), Bryan King (picked up off waivers), and Kaleb Ort (picked up off waivers) all contributed big time to the team.

In the end, I will continue to be a positive person relative to the Astros. What about you?  

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28 responses to “Astros 2025: 3 reasons to  worry & 3 reasons to not…”

  1. I always think about how the intersection of Westheimer and Highway 6 was so far out in the middle of nowhere. Two lanes going each way. It did not take long to get out in the country going west. This is a tough season to respond to these questions so early. Alas Dan, we’re still a win away from that elusive .500 record. But we’re in the hunt.

    From an offensive standpoint, Maybe Paredes is producing at a level that is better than expected than we might get from him going forward. Not one other guy is pulling his weight. Jake has become Jake. Pena has become Pena. All of our other real hitters are doing much less than they will ultimately. So there is that.

    As far as pitching goes, not surprisingly, we’ve got one of the better staffs in MLB so far. I’m not sure if Hayden Wesneski will maintain what he’s given us so far, but he sure looks comfortable out there. I think Blanco will settle in and be mostly reliable. And I think Gusto can be a solid 6th man in the rotation when that’s needed. I don’t know what to think about Lance though. He could screw up the present rotation vibe. It’s definitely looking like he’ll be a starter, assuming good health. But we sure need help in the pen and I do think LJM is better suited for that role than Hayden is at this point.

    Believe it or not, Baseball Savant has the Astros atop the MLB leaderboard in Outs Above Average. In fact to date, our third baseman looks better than the Red Sox’ third baseman. Now the Fielding Bible ( is that a reliable site?) has the Astros a bit better than average defensively, but it’s noteworthy that we’ve got the worst left field ranking in baseball so far. But we are pretty good in both center and even right field. And while I think our pitchers defense is terrible, there are several teams that are much worse in that distinction, including those Dodgers out on the West Coast. Maybe we’ll bunt a bit when we play them.

    I’m also surprised that we’re right in the middle as it applies to stolen bases with 16 out of 20 attempts. And that’s with Chas and Zach both spending most of their time on the bench. We’ve still got ample lumbering slow guys though. But if Issac keeps dropping dingers into the Crawfish Boxes and Walker starts hitting, we’ll take the trade off.

    I still don’t think we’re as athletic as some other teams in MLB. There are fun ones to watch out there. But I see no reason why the Astros won’t be competing to win their division later in the year. And if that can be done minus the two guys we lost, that’s saying something. Cam Smith, you’re going to play a big role in our success or failure.

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    • There was a time when portions of the west side of town ended at Gessner for all intense and purposes. When you went west on Westheimer, once you passed Gessner the only thing out there was the Westheimer Stables. When you went west on Clay Rd in Spring Branch the only thing past Gessner was Bear Creek Park.

      I remember my wife and I trying to find Quail Valley when we were looking at houses back in the early 80’s. We somehow ended up at Hiway 90 and Hiway 6 and it looked like the end of the world except for the Sugar Mill.

      No Woodlands or Kingwood back then. If you went out to Katy – you went out to Old town Katy, not the many subdivisions that have sprung up out there.

      I’m beginning to feel like I’m “Get off my lawn” old fart.

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      • Dave, you are thinking of the Andrau Airpark. It closed in 1998 and it was located in what is now the Royal Oaks Country Club area. Around Richmond and Kirkwood.

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      • Yes Sarge, that’s the little airport! I used to go over there and get a burger at the little cafe that had and watch the planes come and go.

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    • Interesting stats early on – Jose Altuve has the best BA (.302), scored the most runs (10) tied for the most HRs (3) and has the second best OPS (.783), but interestingly has a -0.1 WAR (on baseballreference.com). I’m assuming that is due to fielding.

      In many ways the best hitter through 16 games is Isaac Paredes, though he was getting on base early on and only hitting well lately with HRs in three straight games.

      He has the second best BA (.276), best OBP (.382) best OPS (.831), tied most HRS (3), tied most RBIs (9) and has the best WAR at 1.0 as he has been a steady hand at 3B.

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  3. Thoughts –

    • I have overall liked what I’ve seen from Hayden Wesneski so far. Yes he gave up 3 home runs, but it felt like a JV stat line – 6 innings / 10 Ks/ 0 walks/ 3 solo home runs.
    • Paredes always seems to have a 3 ball count. Right now he is leading the team with 299 pitches faced and 4.4 pitches per at bat. And he has discovered the Crawford Boxes are not far away and he was enjoying peppering them this weekend.
    • I also enjoy watching Bryan King. With Tayler Scott struggling he is stepping up big time.
    • I have not watched every inning this season – it seems like every time I watch – Altuve is making some good catches out there – maybe he is getting graded down getting slow beaks on fly balls.
    • After a very slow start – Cam Smith is hitting .353 BA/ .389 OBP/ 1.036 OPS in the last 5 games and he is looking pretty comfortable in right field.
    • Really waiting for Yordan and Walker to go on tears. Yordan is tied with a team high 9 RBIs while not really hitting well. Walker, after starting the season hitting in bad luck (still only has an unlucky .235 BAbip) but lately he’s showing a great batting eye drawing walks – expect it to bust loose soon.
    • Dubon and his torpedo bat seems to be helping him wake up from an Abreu-esque start.
    • Astros you are facing the equally mediocre Cards with the top of your rotation – get on a roll

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  4. Wait, we should worry because we don’t have Seth Martinez, Ort, Caleb Ferguson, or Montero? Are you their agent? Seth is the definition of replacement player and the other three were powder kegs. I’ll miss Pressly, but he was pitching out of place for us. We may still get to see Whitley this spring.

    I haven’t seen much of the games, but I’m only concerned with Altuve making the plays he is supposed to make. His current fielding metrics are dragged down by one error in LF and poor range at 2B in his few games there. His range in LF thus far is actually above 90% of LFers in the league if you can believe that…but it’s a small sample. Offensively, he’s going to compare poorly to a lot of LF because most of them are out there to SLG and Altuve is out there to chase 3000 hits. I think by the end of the season a lot of those guys ranking ahead of him will have racked up enough Ks and such that Altuve will rise in the rankings, but that assumes he lowers his K rate a bit.

    I’m actually more worried about what other teams are doing than what we’re doing.

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    • 2024 league average for relievers – 3.96 ERA.

      Seth M – 3.59 ERA

      Caleb F – 3.86 ERA

      Kaleb O – 2.55 ERA

      Montero – 4.70 ERA

      Other than Montero, who I don’t miss – they were better than average. Just saying you had to fill in behind them. And as I said – I’m more in line with the 3 reasons not to worry.

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    • Actually, as far as hitting goes, I’m concerned that Altuve is certainly focused on getting 3000 hits, but overly so. When he walked just 47 times and struck out 119 last year, that indicated to me that he was over aggressive and not selective enough. His OPS went from .915 in 2023 to .790 in 2024. Part of that is probably age creeping up on him, but he’s off to a similar start in 2025 with 4 walks and 13 K’s. I’d like to see him get those 3000 hits, but I’m more interested in seeing a solid OBP and OPS. He’s still our leadoff guy. We need him on base. And if he’s more selective, he’ll see better pitches more often, pitches that he can drive.

      I sure hope he figures out left field and can stick there. His arm won’t get stronger and clubs will run and run on him, especially when he’s out in big outfields. But as we know, he was terrible at second last year. So left field is our only hiding place for him.

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      • I think it’s probably age more than anything else. But I don’t think its “washed” kind of age like it was with Abreu. He will still get hot. I just know when you go into advanced metrics, he is swinging earlier, chasing more, and those can be signs your eyes are slowing and your ability to process is taking that inevitable downturn. It’s honestly, expected.

        If that 4/13 ratio turns into 40/130 at the end of the year I won’t be surprised. That’s the trend on him thats been coming since those career years in 2022 and 2023 in terms of plate discipline.

        The ability for him to tell a ball from a strike early enough to do something with it is diminishing. It’s still there, but maybe the read time is .02 seconds slower, and its .02 seconds longer for his brain to tell his hands where to be, and the result is fewer walks and more chases. Maybe the play for him to make that up is be more aggressive and get out in front of mistakes. That’s how I would define his 2025 season so far, a slightly diminished great hitter getting out in front of mistakes. This is the kind of adjustment Jose Abreu couldn’t make.

        His defense seems to be, at best, poor. I’m sure its better than mine.

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  5. Good morning Astro fans. That was a real stinker last night. Hopefully our ace to be can help stop the bleeding tonight. Rather than talk about the game, I’d like to see Zach get sent down now. He’s being done a disservice by sitting on the bench. And what happened to Brendan Rodgers? He’s not had a start since April 9. He’s probably not the answer either, but his stats are better than some other guys. Has the light hitting Frenchie Dubon once again weaseled his way into the starting lineup? We already know enough about his offense. And my much maligned friend Chas, what do we do with him? He happens to lead the team with a .438 OBP, although in a very small sample. But his new found eye is consistent with his spring training sample too.

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    • To add….I just read that Brandan Rodgers is resting a sore hip.

      Dan, Chas has 19 PA’s. Jake 47. Jake’s .OPS is .622. I think we’ll be comparing Jake and Chas until one is finally moved. Admittedly, I think Chas has consistently gotten the short end of the playing time stick. I also recognize the fact that while Chas plays all three outfield positions pretty well, Jake is superior in center, although he does not apparently play left or right. I guess it just comes down to Jakes defensive value, especially with Jose and Cam on either side. I just continually have a hard time accepting Jakes offensive stats as they decline to his norm.

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  6. Thoughts

    • Steven – Can we live with Altuve with a .300 BA/ .340 OBP/ .780 OPS like he is running right now? Sure. But what happens when he is dipping down some more – say – .270/.310/.720. At what point does he lose his leadoff spot?
    • Daveb – With Jake hitting OK and fielding like a fiend – the manager married to Cam in RF and Altuve in LF – Chas is the 4th OF. But he does look like a better hitter than last season. Maybe if Meyers sinks back to .220 – maybe Chas will get more of a chance. Or if Cam just needs some time down on the farm with his swing….
    • The last two games perfectly illustrate this post – Sunday was a solid game that made you feel good about the Astros – yesterday made you worried.
    • Framber has been really inconsistent – Starts 1 and 3 were shutout starts – 2 and 4 he was pounded. Just need to remember that his ERA is 4.50 – last season it was 4.34 after 8 starts before he hit his stride.
    • On the radio they mentioned that even though the Astros 7-9 start is not so great – the most wins in the AL are the Tigers with 10 – so no one is running away with it.
    • Souza showed a pretty good arm again last night – Contreras looks like someone begging to be replaced by Whitley or Ort.
    • Yordan whacked a groundout at 97 mph and ripped a liner to the 1B at 110 mph. I think something big is coming soon.
    • Christian Walker is still below the Mendoza line – but over the last 5 games he is heating up a bit and is showing a great eye – 8 walks in those 5 games. Early on he seemed to be facing 0-2 count every time up.

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    • No, Dan, because I think we are probably going to be fighting for a wild card with Seattle and I think the Rangers will manage to win an incredibly tight AL West, by having four teams in that division struggling to stay near .500 for the season.

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  9. A well played game tonight. Just enough offense to get us a “W”. At this point Hunter Brown is definitely our Ace. Bull pen was super too. What’s tough to watch is one day we’re playing at a “9” level and the next day a “2”. Doesn’t seem to be any in between.

    As for your Houston history I was there from 53 – 64, and again in 75 – 76. I remember the family going to visit my grandfather in the Heights and we had to get off the Gulf freeway at Pierce Street since the Pierce Street Elevator wasn’t constructed yet. The only skyscraper of consequences at that time was the 44 story Humble building. The other journey (all day since 45 was always under construction) made was to Huntsville were my Dad’s parents lived. We’d drive by Sam Houston’s house and the “Walls Unit” of the prison. Gulf Gate shopping center was where my parents bowled and I610 ended at Texas 225 and telephone road. To get to the other side of the ship channel was through the Washburn Tunnel and through Galena Park. For you history buffs, there is a monument on the south side of the channel behind the entrance to the tunnel that marks the place where the Texas Army captured General Santa Ana after the Battle of San Jacinto.

    It’s funny that I can remember all of this including my Elementary schools days at S Shaver in Pasadena, but can’t remember where I put my car keys the other day.

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  10. A couple of things I have noted. The AL West is the only division where all the teams have a negative run differential, with the Astros at -1 being the closest to even.

    Also, all five AL West teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games.

    The 5 teams in the AL West have a combined record of 42-42.

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    • I think that means while a couple of teams have improved somewhat, a couple have stagnated, and one has declined. Any ideas on who that might be?

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  11. Thoughts

    • Z – I loved your line about remembering things from Elementary School and not where you left your keys. That’s where some of us are
    • Like I noted above – it just felt like Yordan was zeroing in and last night he whacked one. Now need Christain and Yainer feeling the same way.
    • I know it feels like the Astros are falling off this year, but they are 8-9, 2 games back – last year they were 6-11, 2-1/2 games back.
    • Hunter was a bulldog last night – had quite a bit of traffic early but bent, did not break. As daveb says he is the Ace right now.
    • Meyers with 3 hits and the big first RBI that helped give Hunter the win
    • Bryan King is becoming this year’s Tayler Scott. Bryan Abreu keeps scaring me, but held. Josh Hader looked very dominant.
    • C’mon Astros take another series today.

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  12. Seems lefty Steve Matz is starting for the Cards today. He’s not stretched out, so it looks like a bullpen game. It sure would be nice to jump on him early.

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  13. Yordan finally hits his second homer and sits. Walker looks like he could use a day off and he’s playing. I know it’s a lefty starter but…

    a) As daveb points out he may not make it through to a second time through the lineup

    b) When Yordan is hot – he hits all comers

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    • I don’t get Yordan sitting. The club has the next 5 Thursday’s off. Yordan has been primarily a DH. He’s finally getting dialed in. Unless he’s got some kind of ache or pain, it’s a bad time to sit him.

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      • Since Joe learned at Dusty’s knee – I’m sure it is “I told Yordan he was getting this day off during Spring Training and a promise is a promise”

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      • Hinch would do this kind of crap too – but he had an insanely deep and talented lineup (from 2017 on) and could get away with it easier.

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