Again, YIE (Yes It’s Early), but along with other problems on-going with the team, one of the worst is a little Davie Bowie number – Regression City. OK, I might have messed the title up a bit. My apologies to any Suffragettes out there.
There were a few surprises out of the blue in 2024 and apparently a number of them have decided to return back to the blue here in 2025.
Perhaps nothing in 2024 was quite as surprising as the performance of Mr. Blanco. Here was a 30 year old quasi-journeyman pitcher, who had pitched in 24 major league games, only 7 of them starts and had a not so robust 4.78 ERA.
Note – not sure he can be called a full journeyman when he was with the same Astros organization for the last 10 seasons, even though he has wandered up and down the organization like Caine from Kung Fu.
He carried the starting staff in the early part of the season including a no-hitter in his first start of the season and put up almost interchangeable numbers with ace Framber Valdez for all of 2024. His 13-6, 2.80 ERA in 29 starts was perhaps the most unexpected excellent season since Charlie Morton went from a career 41-62 thrower to a wipe out pitcher for the team in 2017 and 2018.
But this season – YIE, but Ronel and his shut down change-up seems to have caught Chris Devenski disease. So far, he has been shaky and short in putting up 0-1, 9.45 ERA over 6.2 innings in two starts. Maybe it’s just knocking the early season cobwebs off, or maybe it’s the dreaded “R” word.
Scott took a much more circuitous route to get to the Astros bullpen in 2024. First, he was born in that baseball hotbed of Johannesburg, South Africa. Then after being drafted by the Cubs in 2011, he wandered through 10 MLB organizations along with Japan with only 46 major league innings (0-1, 9.00 ERA) to show for it.
Then with his 11th organization he had a great 2024 season (7-3, 2.23 ERA) as he morphed from a mop-up man to a set-up man.
But here in 2025, he was awful in the spring (7.56 ERA) and has continued that trend into the new season where his WHIP has more than doubled 2024 (2.625 vs. 1.165) and his ERA more than tripled (6.75 vs. 2.23) Is it just a Bergman-esque slow start or…. The “R” word?
Jon’s story is so unique – it feels wrong to not include him here. He famously signed a $10 million contract before he ever set foot on an MLB field. He then struggled below the Mendoza line while whiffing like he was trying out for the new sponsor Daikin (well new 10 years in the future).
He then played his way out of the majors in 2015 and toked his way out of the game after the 2017 season.
But his career had a second act and after hitting his first MLB homer in 8 seasons with the Astros in 2023, he stepped up to be the Astros regular first baseman in 2024 after Jose Abreu crashed and burned.
Note: The way 2025 has started, Singleton’s 2024 slash (.234 BA/.321 OBP/.707 OPS) doesn’t look too bad.
Maybe it is not really regression, but Singleton had a poor spring and with the newly acquired Christian Walker penciled into the lineup every day and Jon’s inability to play anywhere but 1B, he was regressed and released in 2025 and picked up by the minor league side of the Yankees.
Totally unfair, I know, but Smith has regressed (with the help of facing real MLB pitching) from the bright new toy in Spring training to a guy who is flirting with the Abreu line (.100 pts below the Mendoza line). In his case, it is probably a matter of too much too early, but hopefully the young man relaxes about it and starts swinging like we know he can.
Yainer Diaz is not going on this list, nor is Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena or Mauricio Dubon. But for goodness sake guys. Stop regressing.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
37 responses to “Astros 2025: Welcome to Regression City”
What’s this business about regression? The Astros were 4 and 7 at this point last year and then things got much worse. At 5-6 right now, aren’t we right on the cusp of breaking out?
I’ve got to give Framber credit today. He was not feeling well last night and almost looked like he was on his way to a freakout in the 2nd, but regrouped and provided six essential shut out innings. But talk about two rather hopeless offensive clubs mostly flailing away at the plate. Much of the chilly crowd at T-Mobile had called it a night well before the game mercifully ended after three bonus Manfred innings. But we’re 2-0 in extras. More positive regression!
Gosh we’ve gotten surprisingly good pitching from the pen overall. And then Hader goes out for two innings again. I thought Joe said we were going back to a more traditional closers role for him in 2025. At least it was only 20 pitches last night. And then Gusto and Okert finished it off! I am still concerned about the pen though. It looks like Taylor Scott could use some time in Sugar Land to regroup. But the problem is that he walked way too many guys last year. He was due for that dreaded regression. And it started in 2024. I don’t think we’re going to get much from Scott or Contreras going forward. That’s why I don’t think it was a great time to move Montero. But we’ll have to see who the player to be named later turns out to be. Please, not Jesse Chavez.
Cam Smith finally hit a ball hard to the left side of the baseball field. And he made a real legitimate catch out in right. Dan, more positive regression. And don’t forget Jake. 2 hits, his club leading 3rd stolen base and a big catch of his own. It’s all good!
LikeLike
What’s this business about regression? The Astros were 4 and 7 at this point last year and then things got much worse. At 5-6 right now, aren’t we right on the cusp of breaking out?
I’ve got to give Framber credit today. He was not feeling well last night and almost looked like he was on his way to a freakout in the 2nd, but regrouped and provided six essential shut out innings. But talk about two rather hopeless offensive clubs mostly flailing away at the plate. Much of the chilly crowd at T-Mobile had called it a night well before the game mercifully ended after three bonus Manfred innings. But we’re 2-0 in extras. More positive regression!
Gosh we’ve gotten surprisingly good pitching from the pen overall. And then Hader goes out for two innings again. I thought Joe said we were going back to a more traditional closers role for him in 2025. At least it was only 20 pitches last night. And then Gusto and Okert finished it off! I am still concerned about the pen though. It looks like Taylor Scott could use some time in Sugar Land to regroup. But the problem is that he walked way too many guys last year. He was due for that dreaded regression. And it started in 2024. I don’t think we’re going to get much from Scott or Contreras going forward. That’s why I don’t think it was a great time to move Montero. But we’ll have to see who the player to be named later turns out to be. Please, not Jesse Chavez.
Cam Smith finally hit a ball hard to the left side of the baseball field. And he made a real legitimate catch out in right. Dan, more positive regression. And don’t forget Jake. 2 hits, his club leading 3rd stolen base and a big catch of his own. It’s all good!
LikeLiked by 1 person
It used to be baseball axiom not to use your closer in a tied game on the road. I just think it comes down to Espada and trust issues. He has to trust what he has left out there to get three outs without losing the game. And after Tay Scott tried to blow his second game and King was used to clean it up, he doesn’t trust anyone else. It doesn’t look like he will be changing from what he did last year.
LikeLike
Steven, I can’t hold it against Joe right now. He’s got us in a position to win our third series out of four today, in spite of our early ineptness in several areas. But yeah, in the long run, it would be nice to have a pen that allows us not to use our closer in these less traditional circumstances. His stats last year indicated three outs were plenty for him.
LikeLike
I was hoping the Astros would bring in a starting pitcher from AAA to fill in for Arrigetti. (Blubaugh?)
LikeLike
As an aside, Whitley is throwing his first rehab assignment with Sugar Land tonight. Tyler Ivey threw 3.2 innings last night. In two appearances, he’s got a 2.16 ERA, although he’s allowed a bunch of baserunners. One can hope though!.
LikeLike
Some of this is YIE.
I’ll give my take, though a month later half these people will have proven me wrong one way or the other (that’s why they are called “hot takes”).
Christian Walker is in a funk. It feels like he hasn’t had a 2-0 count all season. He is in one of those funks where every count starts 0-1, every close pitch goes the pitchers way, every hard contact is a foul ball or right at someone. But he isn’t Jose Abreu, and he isn’t swinging at pitches after they are past him. It will come around.
Yainer’s swing is a mess right now. The book is out on him, and he is seeing even more breaking pitches. I saw Castillo and the Mariners pen both attack him with outside fastballs, and he worked those counts. I don’t know why people just don’t pepper inside fastballs and then throw him sliders that start in the zone and end out of it, works every time. Of course it’s only going to take a few of those inside fastballs to miss their mark and next thing you know he is out of this slump.
I do think JP progresses in power. But he is the same can’t read spin guy he has always been. It’s what separates him from guys like Correa. Maybe not regression, but his zone recognition is showing no progression.
Tay Scott scares the heck out of me every time he pitches. He throws 92 MPH. He has a lot of movement on his breaking stuff but its kind of loopy. Loopy is bad in the sense that its easier to pick up for a hitter and harder for him to control. Sharp break is better. I think he was a flash in the pan, but he has earned the opportunity to fail.
So long king of regression, Rafeal Montero. It’s like we hardly knew ya. All I’ve seen is “cash considerations” which means we are paying some of that salary down. I wonder how much.
Hader’s command was impeccable last night. Wish it was like that every night. It probably was 4 years ago when he was the scariest guy on the planet.
My favorite punching bag is proving me wrong early. He actually watches a lot of pitches, unfortunately some of those are strikes. Don’t worry by the end he will be hitting .225.
Chas has resorted to being used as a bunter to try and be worth something. I want to see Chas swinging. I need to know if that 2024 regression has killed his confidence or not. The way he bunted that with confidence scares me, it makes me think he was relieved to be bunting and not asked to swing.
Regression. Lots of it to go around.
LikeLike
Replying to multiple people here – I also hate seeing Hader out there in the tie game on the road because if he holds the Mariners down we’re still going to have to count on someone to get 3 outs for the win. If he loses the game we all come with pitchforks and torches for Espada. Perhaps a reasonable take is that by putting him out there in the 9th Espada is allowing him to be ready on his schedule and maybe not tax him as much. Also, it feels like this team is mustering some fight despite the cold bats. No one hits at Safeco or whatever it is. Coming away with some wins like that is huge for a team that’s not clicking on all cylinders.
I don’t mind seeing Chas bunt, but would like to see him get more opportunities with 3+ PA per game. He doesn’t have to be great. If he hits .240 he’ll be better than league average…and I am certain he can do that. Sometimes going up and being able to execute your role is really important for the player and team though.
LikeLike
Thoughts
LikeLike
Here’s my little twist to Dan’s YIE: ITETP.
The Astros need to settle in. Stick with the plan they thought was a good plan just a couple of weeks ago. Let Cam play, put Altuve in LF 5 days of the week and give the newbies (there are a LOT of them) time to gel. You essentially have new guys at every corner (IF and OF)…Walker didn’t play half of spring training and both Cam and Jose are playing relatively new positions.
Not time for major overhauls, only tweaks. To do anything different raises questions about Espada’s judgment IMO. You made decisions two weeks ago and they (hopefully) were based on years of watching players, so let it play out for a few more weeks.
ITETP: It’s Too Early To Panic.
LikeLike
By the way guys, I can certainly see some regression out there, and I think I can see that a couple or more guys will be off the 26 man well before summer. And not all will simply be sent to Sugar Land. But indeed, it’s very early. We are not nearly as big a mess we were last year. Plus I’ve already promised myself not to get overly critical until at least May!
LikeLike
Atlanta paying only $3 million of Montero’s $11.5 million salary. Astros on the hook for the rest. Guess we’ll see the PTBNL, but I’m not holding my breath for anything significant.
LikeLike
PTBNL like Jose Luis Hernandez…….later named Jose Urquidy
LikeLike
Yeah, considering our present lack of pitching depth, both in the rotation and pen, I would have held on to Montero for the time being. He might have been helpful today.
LikeLike
And how many Luis Castillos do the M’s have as starting pitchers? Apparently two.
LikeLike
I don’t like to say this but I must…
I am the engineer on the fire Espada train. if he had not burnt Hader up last night, then Hader would have come in today and saved this game. Poor management on his part.
LikeLike
Absolutely disgusting! The Bull pen gives up 7 runs in two innings. Just as I thought that we were going to turn it around. On another note the umpiring in the last two games sucks! The plate umpire in both games were calling strikes on pitches that were not strikes. And to add insult to injury he gave those same locations to Seattle hitters as balls. The 6 walks given by the bullpen did us in. Not so much the Grand Slam on Okert. He got the 1st two batters out after the bases were loaded but just made a mistake to Arozarena. And all I saw Abreu throw were breaking balls. I guess he can’t throw that 98 mph fastball anymore. Like Sarge says, I’m not impressed with Espada’s management style.
LikeLike
Abreu threw at least one pitch that was 100. He obviously has had problems locating the ball since the season started. But he should not have even been needed again today. The pitching staff has done far more for this club than the offense has through the first 12 games.
LikeLike
But Sarge, if the Astros had not gotten those 6 outs from Hader last night, do you think they would have won that game?
The Astros lost today’s game in the first four innings when the guys with the bats could not finish off a pitcher tossing meat up to the plate that was going to throw 100 pitches regardless of how bad it got.
LikeLike
But Sarge, if the Astros had not gotten those 6 outs from Hader last night, do you think they would have won that game?
The Astros lost today’s game in the first four innings when the guys with the bats could not finish off a pitcher tossing meat up to the plate that was going to throw 100 pitches regardless of how bad it got.
LikeLike
I agree with your statement db7. Too many men LOB with 3 times the bases being left loaded.
LikeLike
Dave, someone else could have pitched the ninth inning of a tied ballgame. Hader should be the pitcher to pitch the last inning of a game when we are the road team and we are ahead. He is, allegedly, supposed to be the “closer.”
LikeLike
What a crappy way to cost Hunter Brown a well deserved win. I don’t know why Espada did not bring in Okert to start the 8th against two left handed hitters. I don’t know why he let Contreras load the bases with nobody out.
Abreu made his own problems – but he came so close to an out on that play at third that was reversed and with the guy he struck out that the umpire did not call.
But when you have a big lead or a decent lead – DON’T WALK GUYS!!!!
Ahem – my coaching is over for the day.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Another take about Espada…
Arrighetti breaking his thumb on his pitching hand while playing catch in the outfield during Seattle players conducting batting practice. Why, oh why were the Astros players in the field at this time???? I just shake my head…
Espada lives one half mile from me. I will dress him down if I ever run into him in public. I won’t make a spectacle but I will have harsh words for him.
And I am saddened by all of this the past two years. I was a huge backer of him being named manager of the Astros.
LikeLike
I’m sure if you got Espada a little intoxicated at a dinner party he might spill the beans that Contreras, Okert, King, Taylor, Sousa, Montero were not the names he was hoping were pitching close games late for him. These are the names Dana Brown has given him. I remember reading an article years ago that was so dry about bullpen staffing ideas by an ex-GM that talked about not spending money on a guy that might give you 40-50 innings. I think sometimes they forget where those 40-50 innings are at. But I get it, there was a reason the writer was an ex-GM.
You don’t have to spend money on all 8 spots. But maybe 3-4 of them should be 5M a year guys like a Maton or Neris or Stanek. When you say you are letting them ALL walk – then you trade Pressly – and you think are OK because you have 1 stud setup guy and 1 closer with 6 nobodies – you get bit occasionally, especially if your setup guy looks like someone left a little kryptonite powder in his coffee before ST.
Maybe Ort and Whitley can change the dynamics of who/where. Maybe they won’t. I know I watched them cruise until I watched Contreras walk 3 straight guys. Why was Espada treating a 5 run lead like it was a 10 run lead? When you are given nobodies in your BP manage like your pants are on fire. Any one of those nobodies can cost you the game when you decide to let them face 8-10 batters.
With this bullpen no lead is safe. Espada was managing like the lead was safe until he realized it wasn’t.
If this team ends up with 86 wins and misses the playoffs it’s going to be caused by multiple of these games.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Steven, I just read your post after posting my post. All good points. It took me two cups of coffee this morning to get my own out.
LikeLike
Good morning,
Starting off on a brighter note, Forrest Whitley pitched a clean 6th inning for the Space Cowboys last night, recording three ground outs on 11 pitches.
That was a disastrous Astro loss yesterday. It was a team loss. Bad hitting, bad pen, questionable manager decisions. And Hunter Brown’s effort was wasted again. So was an excellent day of defense. I was concerned early when our offense ignored so many scoring opportunities. It left me with just a little bit of queasiness in my stomach. Thing is, our pen has been living on borrowed time. We’ve got real issues out there. There just are not enough reliable guys to go to, regardless of how fortunate we’ve been to date. And I personally do not understand the timing of the Montero trade. Seems to me that transaction could have waited until today. Contreras won’t be around for long. Taylor Scott is unreliable. Sousa is a hope and a prayer. I’ll go to battle with Bryan Abreu in any situation. But he got no help and did not help himself. Those 0-2 base hits are terribly demoralizing. That double by Rodriguez was an excellent piece of hitting on a pitch away, down in the zone, on the black.
I was watching the Space Cowboy game last night. AAA is in its second season of using the challenge system for balls and strikes. Triple A is more advanced than MLB. The system works. There are no arguments. It’s quick and tidy. MLB needs to get with the Players Association and work out the agreement. If the umps want to go on strike, so be it.
Sargeh, talking to you here for so many years, I know you’re a good man. If you happen to run into Joe, make sure he’s not with his wife and kids. Offer to buy him a cup of coffee. My sense is that he’s a good man too, but like the rest of us has the ability to make bad decisions, especially in the allocation of his human resources. I think what makes his job extra tough is that he does not get to hire and fire his own employees. For the most part, he’s got to make do with what he has been given to work with. I’m guessing that if the Astros implode in 2025, our manager will be on the hot seat. But I still have respectful what he accomplished last year. And I don’t think Joe Espada is the reason we’re 5 and 7 to date.
LikeLike
My fear with Whitley is we will see some games where he does not have control. Bullpens lose games when they walk people…as many have mentioned here. I think he’s going to miss a lot of bats and give us some good innings, though. Regarding Espada, I agree with your comments completely. I’d love to buy the guy a cup of coffee and sit around talking baseball. I’m also placing blame on him for those decisions that don’t work out, but we don’t know all of the inputs that went into making those decisions. I’m occasionally a hypocrite in that I believe if you’re on an MLB roster then we should be able to count on you to play like a major leaguer, but often complain about certain players (particularly pitchers) who I don’t believe should even be in the games.
LikeLike
Whitley is also a long shot at this point. But we need to hope someone shows up and sticks, and not just for a year.
LikeLike
Good morning,
Starting off on a brighter note, Forrest Whitley pitched a clean 6th inning for the Space Cowboys last night, recording three ground outs on 11 pitches.
That was a disastrous Astro loss yesterday. It was a team loss. Bad hitting, bad pen, questionable manager decisions. And Hunter Brown’s effort was wasted again. So was an excellent day of defense. I was concerned early when our offense ignored so many scoring opportunities. It left me with just a little bit of queasiness in my stomach. Thing is, our pen has been living on borrowed time. We’ve got real issues out there. There just are not enough reliable guys to go to, regardless of how fortunate we’ve been to date. And I personally do not understand the timing of the Montero trade. Seems to me that transaction could have waited until today. Contreras won’t be around for long. Taylor Scott is unreliable. Sousa is a hope and a prayer. I’ll go to battle with Bryan Abreu in any situation. But he got no help and did not help himself. Those 0-2 base hits are terribly demoralizing. That double by Rodriguez was an excellent piece of hitting on a pitch away, down in the zone, on the black.
I was watching the Space Cowboy game last night. AAA is in its second season of using the challenge system for balls and strikes. Triple A is more advanced than MLB. The system works. There are no arguments. It’s quick and tidy. MLB needs to get with the Players Association and work out the agreement. If the umps want to go on strike, so be it.
Sargeh, talking to you here for so many years, I know you’re a good man. If you happen to run into Joe, make sure he’s not with his wife and kids. Offer to buy him a cup of coffee. My sense is that he’s a good man too, but like the rest of us has the ability to make bad decisions, especially in the allocation of his human resources. I think what makes his job extra tough is that he does not get to hire and fire his own employees. For the most part, he’s got to make do with what he has been given to work with. I’m guessing that if the Astros implode in 2025, our manager will be on the hot seat. But I still have respectful what he accomplished last year. And I don’t think Joe Espada is the reason we’re 5 and 7 to date.
LikeLike
Thoughts
LikeLiked by 1 person
Of course I would not do that in front of his family.
LikeLike
Montero pitched the 10th for the Braves yesterday, gave up no runs, walking 1, striking out 2 and most importantly did not allow the Manfred man on second to score. The Braves won in the 11th.
LikeLike
Joe Espada gets the win.
LikeLike
I had this crazy dream last night that the Astros beat the Angels 14-3 and Yanier Diaz hit a Grand Slam. That would be great if it came true wouldn’t it?
LikeLiked by 1 person
It was a great game. Washington helped bringing in an under gunned lefty to face a guy whose weakness is right-handed breaking stuff. But it was great to see the Astros take advantage of some pitchers. As happy as I was for Yainer I was even happier to see Walker get ahead of the count every single at bat – take some 2-0 and 3-1 pitches just out the zone – and look like his swag is back.
LikeLike
Hayden Wesneski has done everything we could expect from a fifth starter.
Issac Paredes has done everything we could expect from a 6.6 million dollar starting third baseman.
I still don’t know what to expect from Cam Smith, but there is reason to be encouraged.
LikeLike