YIE – Do the “Trends” Matter?

Chip hit the nail on the head in his last post when he knew that I would be following up with one of my YIE (Yes It’s Early) posts.

First of all, relative to the offense (all stats thru games of April 2)

  • The team will finish with a higher slash than .171 BA/.261 OBP/ .487 OPS
  • They will not finish the season with a slash with runners in scoring position of .120 BA/ .207 OBP/ .367 OPS.
  • Yordan Alvarez (.308 BA in 2024) and Yainer Diaz (.299) will not finish 2025 at .061 BA and .073 BA respectively.
  • Christian Walker (an average of 94 RBIs the last 3 seasons) will not end up with 0 RBIs this season
  • Jeremy Pena (.125 BA), Brendan Rodgers (.111  BA), Mauricio Dubon (.000 BA), Zack Dezenzo (.000 BA) and Isaac Paredes (.188 BA) should improve – a lot. Cam Smith (.182 BA) we don’t know.
  • To be perfectly honest – Jose Altuve (.389 BA) and Chas McCormick (.500 BA) will also not end the season with those glitzy numbers.
  • The 2024 Astros had 470 extra base hits – 2.92 per game. The 2025 Astros so far have 4 XBHs or 0.8 per game.
  • The 2024 Astros scored 4.60 runs per game. The 2025 Astros so far have scored 1.80 runs per game.

Bottom line on the offense – any kind of move back towards the mean should lift this offense a ton. Frankly, maybe what they need is a road trip to take the pressure off of them. But all it takes is getting a couple of these guys rolling (I’m looking at you Yordan and Christian) and this team will be OK.

Note – Some folks may say this is proof the team continues their home field offensive woes. Just remember that was not a real problem in 2024 as they hit and scored better at MMP (now Daikin Park) over the road – 395 vs. 345 runs – .770 vs. .713 OPS.

So, what about the pitching so far….

  • The starting pitching has the third best ERA (2.79 ERA) and WHIP (0.93) in the AL. These numbers are better than their 2024 numbers, but not as far better as their hitting is so much worse. They were fifth in ERA in 2024 and eighth in WHIP.
  • The bullpen has the fifth-best ERA (2.81 ERA ) in the AL and the seventh best WHIP (1.25). This more closely mirrors their 2024 stats when they had the fourth best ERA and seventh-best WHIP.
  • The full pitching staff has gotten off to a good start – 2.80 ERA (third in the AL) and 1.04 WHIP (second in the AL).

For the pitching staff, yes, they may regress a bit, but they are a lot closer to their expected norm that the hitters are. A lot more offense and a little less pitching should be expected to help the team to end up in a good place.

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25 responses to “YIE – Do the “Trends” Matter?”

  1. This time last year I was asking whether our hitting coaches would get fired before Espada. Obviously the team turned it around, but why am I asking the same question this year? I think trends do matter. The team has to put up more fight than they showed so far against SF pitching. Let’s hope they can tread water around .500 for the first couple weeks and not fall too far behind in the division, but I’m concerned as to how long it will take the bats to wake up.

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  2. I’ve been disappointed with Yordan’s chase rate. I wonder if his eyes are down in his knees right now and if he thinks the strike zone starts in dirt and ends at the top of his ankles.

    I thought it was a telling stat on the graphics on Tuesday – so far early – 17 pitches is the average in the 1st inning – then shoots down to 14 per inning after that. Most of that difference is Isaac Paredes. The rest of the lineup is here to remind us old habits die hard. Slumps happen easier when you decide to expand the zone.

    I went and looked at last years YIE. Here is what I wrote about Jose Abreu – “YIE, but there are things to have legitimate questions about. I wouldn’t worry about Abreu if he was 0-11 because he hit 4 line drives right at people. It’s not the case. He looks like he brought the same swing with him from last April.” This is not the case with Walker. He is hitting line drives right at people, and they are all pull side. He will be fine.

    Every player on this team is going to have a 3-25 stretch. It happens to Judge, Ohtani, Betts, Acuna, Tucker, et al, too. It’s just happened to them all at the same time. But I am concerned about chase rates yet again, because they are pre-cursors to, or the primary drivers to, slumps. And when you keep presenting yourself susceptible to outside breaking stuff, guess what you get? Outside breaking stuff. And that means you don’t force pitchers to come to you. Isaac Paredes gets this. He just needs to slow down because he has sent some 3-1 count screamers into the left side bleachers and missed a dinger by a few feet. Jeremy Pena does not. He just looks like the same Jeremy Pena, too much talent to hit .170 but not enough zone recognition and control to hit better than .260.

    I’ve probably talked about this in the past – but this team has spent years now letting guys walk that have excellent zone control – Springer, Correa, Bregman, and now trading Tucker – and replaced them with guys that can match them bat to ball, but don’t have the zone recognition. Watching the 2025 Astros is not like watching the 2019 Astros. Its a completely different experience. YIE, and while the offense will come around, this early season offensive slump isn’t just bad luck.

    Luckily the pitching has mostly done its job, or we would be hanging out with the Braves at 0-6 wondering what is happening.

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    • Saw an interesting stat recently on Yordan: Alvarez has a .939 career OPS as a DH, but as an outfielder he’s at 1.042. Kinda makes you wonder. Is he more focused when he’s playing the “whole” game or distracted when he’s only hitting and sitting?

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      • You know Chip, I’ve usually been of the mindset of dismissing splits, an example was Jon Singleton. Coming into 2024 he actually had a better career batting average against lefties than righties. But you watch the guy its very obvious he had no business batting against lefties. Sometimes splits can lead you the wrong way.

        But this one is hard to dismiss because its been for so long and so consistent. It’s a year to year trend to steal Dan’s theme for the blog. At this point, why not put him in LF and Altuve at 2B for a week straight, and see if that move sparks some offense from him? He was certainly better last night than any other game this season even if he was still swinging below the knees pretty consistently.

        When I heard TK and Blummer talk about Yordan playing LF in game 3 of the series during the telecast of game 2, I assumed it was because Caratini was going to catch Framber and Yainer was going to DH. It might be time to see if Caratini can provide a spark as he did many times last year, and get him in the lineup more – which will require Yordan in LF to do.

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    • I feel the need to make an observation – the Braves are sitting at 0-7 right now. You’re right that the Astros could theoretically be 0-6 instead of 2-4 right now. Recall that Soto struck out representing the winning run in the first game to end it and we only pulled out that third game of the Mets series 2-1 with Hader walking the potential tying run (Soto again) to lead off the ninth.

      That does all sound look doom and gloom, but the Braves lost to the Padres and Dodgers who are the hottest teams in all of baseball. The Astros dropped 4 games to teams that think they are playoff teams as well.

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      • I live in Braves country, their social media is ablaze with disappointed fans. I remember our start last year, but I’m not here to provide comfort to Braves fans lol.

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  3. By the way, ESPN ranked its Top 100 MLB players. Several Astros were on the list:

    7. Yordan Alvarez.
    46. Framber Valdez.
    68. Jose Altuve.
    77. Josh Hader.
    88. Hunter Brown.

    ESPN suggested that Brown’s “next leap” is the Cy Young. “He’ll garner some votes this season, but not necessarily win it.”

    Tucker is #19 and Bregman is #47.

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    • Maybe. It wouldn’t surprise me if Spencer is actually the one by the end of the year that has people talking. I don’t think either will have Cy votes, still going to be some inconsistency game to game or even inning to inning – much less win the award – but who thought this time last year that Ronel Blanco would finish second in AL ERA for qualifying pitchers and 4th overall?

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    • Chip – A lot of talent out the door this year.

      Steven – relative to Ronel – he did all that last year and:

      • Did not make the All Star team
      • Received 0 votes for the Cy Young (even Kikuchi got some)
      • Has been totally out of the discussion of Astros top pitchers in 2025

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  4. I sure have not written Blanco off. But if he’s 4th best starter, that would be pretty good.

    Sometimes I wonder if Framber always goes through full preparation for his starts. When he comes out flat, grooves home run balls and walks guys, it’s like he forgot to turn the switch on, or did not do his homework. I don’t think he always takes his job as seriously as some other guys with lesser skills.

    I’m good with the idea of getting Yordan more outfield starts with the hope it will jump start him and maybe a few others. Joe has a tough job. He’s trying to play all 13 guys. But even though I pretty much know what Jake will do, he was off on Sunday, started on Monday and then was off on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s hard to establish yourself when coming on and off the bench. Out of 13, we’ve got 6 everyday players if you include Diaz. And only 4 set positions on the field. I think that plays a role in our present offensive funk.

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  5. I sure have not written Blanco off. But if he’s 4th best starter, that would be pretty good.

    Sometimes I wonder if Framber always goes through full preparation for his starts. When he comes out flat, grooves home run balls and walks guys, it’s like he forgot to turn the switch on, or did not do his homework. I don’t think he always takes his job as seriously as some other guys with lesser skills.

    I’m good with the idea of getting Yordan more outfield starts with the hope it will jump start him and maybe a few others. Joe has a tough job. He’s trying to play all 13 guys. But even though I pretty much know what Jake will do, he was off on Sunday, started on Monday and then was off on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s hard to establish yourself when coming on and off the bench. Out of 13, we’ve got 6 everyday players if you include Diaz. And only 4 set positions on the field. I think that plays a role in our present offensive funk.

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  6. Luis Garcia has elbow inflammation. Shut down for four weeks. I feel bad for the guy. After a while, you wonder if he’ll make it back to the game.

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  7. On the flip side, Tyler Ivey, in his first appearance in 3 years, went 4.2 innings without giving up an earned run for Sugar Land.

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  8. The Astros win with a quality start from Brown and some clutch hitting from some guys who had been struggling. Altuve struck out five times for the first time in his career, making that win all the mo betta.

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  10. Good to see the Astros hit a couple of fly balls. Seems everyone is hitting the ball on the ground. All those darn breaking balls. If a couple of guys can start elevating the ball, we’ll see some line drives in the gaps. I hate to mention any particular guy during a team wide slump, especially the guy doing the most hitting. I know Jose feels like he’s got to carry the team right now, but he’ll put himself in a slump too if he can’t be a little selective. And it nags at me that he really wants to get his moneys worth every time he steps in, because 3000 is on his mind. I hope not.

    Hunter Brown has grown so much. He did something yesterday that Framber could not do on Wednesday.

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  11. Good to see the Astros hit a couple of fly balls. Seems everyone is hitting the ball on the ground. All those darn breaking balls. If a couple of guys can start elevating the ball, we’ll see some line drives in the gaps. I hate to mention any particular guy during a team wide slump, especially the guy doing the most hitting. I know Jose feels like he’s got to carry the team right now, but he’ll put himself in a slump too if he can’t be a little selective. And it nags at me that he really wants to get his moneys worth every time he steps in, because 3000 is on his mind. I hope not.

    Hunter Brown has grown so much. He did something yesterday that Framber could not do on Wednesday.

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  12. Chip – Hunter Brown to me is our next Verlander – great stuff – bulldog mentality – they got to him a little bit in the first (second run was a bit lucky) then he shut the door.

    daveb – like I was showing they just could not continue to have practically no extra base hits. Walker specifically has been hitting the ball with no results – so good to see him break out

    OP – hard to believe that Altuve – struck out 5 times in a game – a little worrisome – even though he has been hot he did strike out more last year than any time in his career

    Steven – I’ll take our 3-4 start over the Braves 0-7 start for sure – it must be total freakdom there right now

    Devin – after sitting thru last year and the team swinging at everything and not taking walks – except for Tucker – I was surprised there was not a change to the hitting coaches

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    • I believe Hummel’s demise with Houston has been because of their desire to move younger players upwardly in their system. The only way around his “no options left” was waivers and release.

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  15. I’m going to try and wait until the end of April before I start evaluating. Some things are already obvious to all of us though.

    I will say though that I really want to see Arrighetti stop going from owning a game to forgetting everything he was doing out there. Maybe a bit less arrogance might be the issue.

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  16. I’m going to try and wait until the end of April before I start evaluating. Some things are already obvious to all of us though.

    I will say though that I really want to see Arrighetti stop going from owning a game to forgetting everything he was doing out there. Maybe a bit less arrogance might be the issue.

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