That day finally came. The one we have been anticipating ever since Alex Bregman hit free agency. The Boston Red Sox signed Breggy to a 3-year / $120 million contract with an opt-out after season 1 or 2 and deferred money that might push about $30 million into the future.
This signing saga had gone on so long that this writer was about to add a little hostage scoreboard to his blogs.
You know…
100 DAYS AND COUNTING WITHOUT AN ALEX BREGMAN SIGNING
Well, on the 103rd day, the Astros’ fans’ hearts were released from captivity as we officially heard what we knew in those hearts was just a formality. Like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Yuli Gurriel, Charlie Morton (and on and on) – one of the players who helped the Astros provide a Golden Era of baseball to the City of Houston has moved onward.
There are a ton of memories tied up in the 8-1/2 seasons Alex spent with the Astros. One shines brightest in my mind. October 29, 2017 – Game 5 of the World Series and the Astros are tied up 12-12 in the 10th inning of one of the wildest games we have ever witnessed.
The Astros look like they will go quietly as they quickly make two outs, but then Brian McCann is hit by a pitch, and after George Springer’s walk moves him to second, he is replaced by pinch runner Derek Fisher.
Young Bregman comes up to bat and knows that closer Kenley Jansen will probably not throw the same pitch he launched for a home run the last time he faced him. He takes a calm, controlled swing at the first pitch and lines it to left field and Houston fan-dom is left jumping around as Fisher scores the biggest run of his career and perhaps the biggest run in Astros’ history.
Breggy leaves the team as the team’s career leader at third base for hits (1132), runs (694), doubles (265), HRs (191), BA (.272), OBP (.366) and OPS (.849). He was our best third baseman ever and it was not even close.
So, a little bit of Q&A on the whole Alex Bregman affair:
How will this work out for the Red Sox?
Let’s be honest, do we really care? But the oddest part of the whole situation is that the Red Sox are spending a ton of money for a player, who is redundant to them. Their top paid superstar (before Bregman) is 3B Rafael Devers. They plan on playing Devers at 3B and moving Alex to 2B, even though Bregman is the reigning 3B Gold Glove in the AL and Devers led all 3Bs in errors in 2024. But we are not going to complain and are ready to LOAO.
How does this deferred money work out?
Truthfully, I don’t have a clue. The question here is if Bregman opts out after one year does he get one third of the deferred money? Or does he get it all anyways or does he get none of it when he opts out? Enquiring minds want to know.
Could Bregman regret he did not take the Tigers or Blue Jays reported 6 year offers?
Probably not. If he plays very well, he will opt out after one season, or if he is very good in the second season, he will opt out after that. He could then take what the Red Sox give him (between $30 and 40 million/yr), sign a long-term contract, and end up with big short-term and big longer-term money.
If he does not play very well or is injured, he might end up worse off. He might have his $120 million and then sign for a much smaller amount after the 3 seasons or if really bad, perhaps no one would really want him.
One of the most interesting questions here is will Bregman take it as an insult if/ when he moves on or gets an extension, if teams offer him less per season than his current contract?
How will Bregman react when the Red Sox fans lose patience with him?
In 2024, the Astro fans were not happy when it took AB until the 40th game to get above the Mendoza Line (.200 BA) for the last time. After 55 games he was still hitting only .216. But the Astros fans “not being happy” was mostly grumbling on sports talk shows or commenting on fan blogs. Believe me, if Alex gets off to one of his patented awful starts in Boston, the grumbling will be replaced by boos and catcalls in a hurry. How will Breggy react to that? And will he be pressing to do better, which rarely helps things?
What does the signing mean for the Astros?
It should mean that the moves they made (signing Christian Walker / trading for Isaac Paredes) were the right ones to fill in the holes at 1B and 3B in the infield. But it also means that the short term fantasy that the Astros would sign Breggy, slide Paredes to 2B and Altuve to LF is not happening, though there is still some thought of using Altuve part time in LF. That will probably die in Spring Training.
In a deeper sense the Astros lost not only their best 3B ever, but also the team leader in both the field and the clubhouse. Alex Bregman, called by Chas McCormick the best teammate he ever had. Willing to help his teammates with anything they may ask. He was the on-field manager, going to the mound when the young Yanier Diaz was not quite certain. Talking Framber Valdez off his psychological crazy mountain. Helping Hunter Brown to tap into a better pitch selection that turned his season around.
Yes, as a younger man he tended to showboat after home runs, but as he matured his schtick lessened and he was no longer the player that made the traditionalists wince.
This may be a bit of a transition season for the Astros without Breggy, Kyle Tucker, Justin Verlander and Ryan Pressly. The Astros will do their best to fill in for each of them in some way, but the biggest question will be – can they fill in behind their intangibles leader as he heads northeast?
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
20 responses to “Bye Bye Breggy”
As you said: My heart was “released from captivity” today. Oddly enough, I released the only bobblehead I have ever owned this morning, as I hung Bregman upside down from the banister of my porch steps. When my son asked me why, I told him I didn’t want a bobblehead of anyone on the GD Red Sox. And I meant it. He’s moved on and I’ve moved on.
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Good morning. Springer was the young guy I really liked a lot. But in retrospect, after thinking I’d continue to follow his game, I pretty much quit altogether. The Astros were still relevant and still are. George left town and I did not follow. I figure the Red Sox will figure out how to get Bregman over to third base. And Bregman might lead the league in singles off the Monster.
I don’t really care about the deferment or the terms of any of the other Bregman deals. And I still think the Astros are better off. I would have moved him after the 2023 season. For this moment in time, our two new corner infielders, with good health will likely hit 50 to 60 dingers between them. Some of those will be important dingers. And I’m pretty sure Walker will help vacuum less than accurate throws from our other infielders. He will be fun to watch. If Paredes plays a league average third, we’ll be okay.
Astro fans historically don’t boo Astro players. A guy like Omar Moreno was a long ago exception. If Alex has his typical slow start, he’ll certainly get booed in Boston. He already knows that though. He’ll work harder, whether it helps or not.
This whole thing will be a big transition. It really depends on what guys do or don’t step up. I do believe Bregman is in the early stages of decline. Heck, a .794 OBP since 2020? Not worth 40 million a year. Paredes might be the bargain of the year even if he does not have a career year. I’m thinking of a Dezenzo, or a McCormick or a Diaz to put up some of the WAR we’ve lost from Tucker. And I don’t expect a 12-24 start again either. I like our 5th starter. But I want to see some indication that our 6th, 7th or 8th best starters can give us a game when we need it. And Forrest Whitley. Just pitch until your arm falls off. It’s time to get it done if you really want it bad enough.
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On another note, Jim Bowden in the Athletic this morning awarded a high grade to the Cubs for their Kyle Tucker trade. He says that Cam Smith will never develop into a Tucker type-talent, Paredes is a below average third baseman and Wesneski is a swing man.
I suppose he might be right, but he’s not shown himself to be astute enough in the past to make such declarations. And the fact still remains that Tucker is a rental. We’ll find out pretty quickly what we’re getting in Paredes and Wesneski. We’ll have to be a bit more patient with Smith.
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I think he is failing to realize that you got 13 years of control of 2 already established major league players and one pretty good prospect for just 1 year of Kyle Tucker.
We got some great years from Kyle. What is special about Kyle Tucker is we got 5 really good years, and they probably still won’t end up his best years. I wanted him for his career. The Astros should have changed the way they do business to keep his guy. You don’t have to turn into the Dodgers or Mets or Yankees and buy other peoples guys, but you can spend the big money to keep your guys. They are going to do neither as long as Crane is in charge. I think he was right on Bregman. I think he has also gotten Springer and Correa right, though Correa is still young enough and talented enough to end up proving him wrong, if he can get healthy.
But I don’t blame Brown for taking this return, if Crane wasn’t going to allow him to give KT 450M. Personally, I would have approached Tucker with a 420M, 12 year offer that included tons of deferred money, and told him this is it or we have no choice but to explore trades. I wanted to make him a career Astro, because I think KT is a future hall of famer and I would have stolen the Dodgers model not to get someone elses guy but to keep my HOFer. But if Crane really is interested in making sure the bottom line every year on his financial statements are not red, then we didn’t exactly cash in like the Cowboys did with Herschel Walker but also didn’t strike out.
One day though, maybe the Astros are going to have to quit playing cheap to keep the Gerrit Coles and Kyle Tuckers of the world.
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Steven, my take on Dana Brown is different. I think he was pleased when Bregman turned down the Astro offer. It did not take him long to organize two corner infielders, assuming it was him that did the organizing. I think they will turn out to be the best two options for the money. Then Arenado briefly came into the picture. That one reeks of a Bagwell deal. New anxiety for Dana. Then Arenado says no. Dana is relieved, thinking he can finally put the finishing touches on the team, even though he’s got to do it within Cranes non-Bregman spending limits. I’m sure he wanted an outfielder. Then the Bregman rumors started up again. Without Reggie Jackson around, we’ll probably never know who made all the decisions. But Dana had to keep responding to the press with vague, indecisive answers, something he certainly does not excel at. And I think yesterday he was just flat out tired of talking about Bregman. Yeah, it’s part of his role, but I think he’s got a crappy GM job working with Jim Crane and his advisors. And I think the whole winter has left him exhausted and perhaps even disenchanted. I don’t think it will happen, but if the team comes out flat in 2025, I do think Dana could go, and before Joe.
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For some reason, I still want to think that we might go after Tucker after this season. We have a sizeable chunk of money coming off the books in 2026 so maybe we’d be inclined to look at a return of King Tuck. But then again maybe not. I would hate to see us slip into the world of baseball mediocrity and become just another team that gets to sit home every October watching some other team in the playoffs.
Crane and company doesn’t appear that they would go for that but one never knows. There’s the Framber question and Yordan and Javier are due sizeable raises plus those who might be looking to increase their value through arbitration. A lot will be determined by how we do this year so it’s going to be interesting to say the least.
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Alex Bregman lost a chance to put his number in a rafter chasing a dollar. In Houston he would have gotten close to 300M in earnings by the time he was done. He is betting on himself to make it 320M playing elsewhere. That, I don’t get, because he is never seeing Cooperstown, and now he is never having a statue or his number retired anywhere, chasing a few relatively speaking dollars. Now he will just end up a baseball reference page.
The Red Sox are apparently still in on Arenado. The Team President said in an interview yesterday that he expects there is a better than not chance that Nolan is with Boston by opening day. That is a surprising turn given the Red Sox are sitting on the best 2B prospect in the game, and, in my opinion, the best prospect in the game in Kristian Campbell. If they trade Campbell for Arenado, they are fools. If they get Arenado they don’t have space for Casas and Devers and Yoshida all 3 in the lineup. But I do know a team that could use a .280/.349 left fielder that swings from the left side. It’s just a question of how you make that work while convincing Boston to take on Montero’s last year to offset your 2025 cost and not put you over the cap. Personally, I would gauge the Sox interest in a Framber for Campbell trade, move Altuve to LF, and let’s see what an open competition for the 5th spot between Blubaugh, Gusto and Gordon gives us. I personally like all 3. Gusto may be the best of them, but pitchers are so unpredictable.
I don’t really care what Bregman does, I probably won’t follow it. It probably won’t be news unless he somehow morphs back into 2019 Bregman or totally stinks.
For the Astros, I bet there is a part of Dana Brown who has looked at the analytics and knows there is a good possibility that he dodged a bullet. But he seemed like a guy defeated in his last presser after Bregman was signed. I think he thought he had a chance. The Tigers reportedly came in at 6/172, and that didn’t get it done. Josh Jordan on sportsmap gave the Astros hell though. He seems pretty angry that this team has gone from Correa, Springer and Bregman to Paredes, Pena and McCormick. He didn’t even mention that includes trading Tucker for mediocrity. We are a long ways away from the Verlander/Cole/Morton days in the rotation, or a Correa/Springer/Yuli/Altuve team where even the 8 hitter was a guy hitting .270+. But this team can still win. Jordan was just angry because he thinks Crane is still doing business like its 2017 and the landscape of how contracts are done and the money involved has changed.
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It’s been a roller coaster offseason for me thanks to the Bregman drama or lack thereof. Based on his performance I was ready to move on. Then looking at other areas of the club I was ready to bring him back to offset those weaknesses. Then based on him wanting so many years and dollars I wanted him to move on. Then based on him crying about the AAV being lower than the last year of his extension where he was overpaid I was really ready for him to move on. The only hesitation I have is that we’ve now lost Bregman and Verlander. I’m not in the clubhouse, but I often refer back to the time we got rid of Brad Ausmus because we wanted Mitch Meluskey instead. That year was a trainwreck. I don’t think Altuve is going to keep people in line. Maybe Pena can flash the biceps and intimidate them into it. I’m certain Espada is not the guy.
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Steven, I like Gusto too. He had an excellent summer pitching in a hitters league after suffering through a .434 BABip in April and a .409 in May. And he was better on the road, where some of those parks are launching pads. His 3.71 ERA on the season was an accomplishment.
I watched yesterday’s Josh Gordon whine on their U-Tube site this afternoon. His argument was typical of a fan, emotional. Thankfully Charlie Pallilo was also in on the conversation. His remarks were balanced. He noted a few stats making it tough for anyone to justify 40 million a year for Bregman. But we already know that. And I don’t know why any club would risk allowing an opt out without it being a mutual out.
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Steven, I like Gusto too. He had an excellent summer pitching in a hitters league after suffering through a .434 BABip in April and a .409 in May. And he was better on the road, where some of those parks are launching pads. His 3.71 ERA on the season was an accomplishment.
I watched yesterday’s Josh Gordon whine on their U-Tube site this afternoon. His argument was typical of a fan, emotional. Thankfully Charlie Pallilo was also in on the conversation. His remarks were balanced. He noted a few stats making it tough for anyone to justify 40 million a year for Bregman. But we already know that. And I don’t know why any club would risk allowing an opt out without it being a mutual out.
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I’d like the Astros to try and figure out what Frambers camps expectations are. If he’s looking for more than the Astros are going to give, then yeah, it’s not too late to make a move there too.
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Bregmans greed prohibited his return. I would bet that the difference in value of the Astros offer and Bostons deferrals is not overwhelmingly significant. He could have been a Houston icon. With his varied interests, I’m glad we let him go.
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Great to see so many post Alex comments!
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My second set of fond remembrances of Breggy come from the 2017 playoff run when he kept charging balls and gunning guys out at the plate. The one I remember the best was cutting down Greg Bird of the Yankees at the plate. Key defensive plays.
As daveb said it is great to see so many comments – very interesting takes by y’all.
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And the Bregman signing did postpone the next preview column here – I still need to post one for relievers and one for outfielders.
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As an old time Colt 45, Astro fan, I have always been a team fan, never a player fan. Bregman was a chess player and was familiar with the hierarchy of the pieces. (Pawn, knights, queen,king).He was more than a pawn, perhaps a knight, the queen/ King is management. When the King/queen goes down it’s over. The Dallas Cowboys had great management until Jones fired Jimmy Johnson and it went down. Crane needs to trust Brown and get the hell out of the way. I’m glad the Bregman fiasco is over. I think the Astros in the long term will be healthier. I also hope that writers focus on him would go to the Red Sox forums and get the hell away from my Astros.
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I agree Larry.
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The Astros have been truly amazing in staying competitive as they have lost a veritable All Star team in talent during their run. Is this the season it catches up with them? Hopefully it they have a bump in the road, it is just a pause along the way.
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I think they remain competitive. 2025 will be difficult, but I do not expect our outfield to remain the trio of Gamel, Meyers and McCormick. It will be considerably better than it looks now.
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And FYI – the next post is the preview on relievers which is in the can and should be posted later today
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