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Astros 2025: Big questions heading into Spring Training (Part 1)

With the Astros pitchers and catchers reporting to West Palm Beach, this coming Thursday and the entire squad due a week from Wednesday – a post on “Big” questions for this team seems appropriate. Some of these questions may not be what you expect, but that is why you stop by to check things out.

  1. How will the Astros prepare their players for the start of the season?

The Astros seemed to barely prepare their “vets” for the 2024 season – with what felt like minimal use during Spring Training. Then the Astro were swept in the four-game opening series against the Yankees on their way to a nasty 12-24 start to 2024.

Will they “risk” more exposure of their starters and starting pitching in preparation for 2025?

  • Who will this team be when they grow up?

On the one hand, the front office under Dana Brown looked like it was trying to get younger and maybe more sustainable as it let Justin Verlander leave, seemed to let Alex Bregman leave, traded Ryan Pressly for a single youngster, and traded Kyle Tucker for a young infielder, Isaac Paredes, a young pitcher, Hayden Wesneski, and a top Cub prospect, Cam Smith.

But….they did not trade future free agent Framber Valdez, sign soon-to-be 34-year-old veteran 1B Christian Walker, or pull a 6-year / $156 million offer to Bregman off the table. In fact, they supposedly upped that offer at some point. They also supposedly have an interest in 28-year-old Alex Verdugo for their depleted outfield.

While….acting like they will allow youngster Zach Dezenzo to compete for an outfield (likely LF) spot.

Are you getting younger, spending less, and trying to get under the luxury tax? Or are you kind of getting younger, but willing to commit big bucks to rapidly aging Alex Bregman?

  • And who is in charge?

When we think that maybe GM emeritus Jeff Bagwell is no longer in the mix, we get an article like this talking about new Astros top prospect Cam Smith from the Cubs.

Jeff Bagwell: Astros’ new top prospect has ‘special’ talent

We get such goodies like “He looks good in a uniform” and  “I think [his] talent [is] off the charts.”

This brings to mind some of the old guy scouting made fun of in both the book and movie Moneyball.

Should Jeff Bagwell be respected for his Hall of Fame career? Definitely.

Should he be allowed to come to Spring Training and pass along some of his on-the-field expertise to the young Astros? Yes.

Should he have the ear of the owner on critical personnel decisions? I’m not thrilled.

  • What role will youngsters play in this Spring Training, and will they have a shot at the team?

Especially when we are looking at the outfield….Zach Dezenzo has been told he might have a shot at left field. Jacob Melton is ranked #2 in the MLB.com top 30 prospect list for the Astros. Pedro Leon had a short, unsuccessful cup of coffee that brought back thoughts of Domingo Santana. Shay Whitcomb was very good at AAA and meh at MLB in 2024.

Will somebody step up from this bunch, or will they end up in AAA or on the bench watching Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Ben Gamel, Mauricio Dubon, and/or Alex Verdugo (maybe?)?

Anyway, here is my first set of Spring Training questions. There will be more coming, but next will be my Astros relievers preview.

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35 responses to “Astros 2025: Big questions heading into Spring Training (Part 1)”

  1. Just waking up from the Super Bowl blow out. It was almost midnight here when the Chief’s mercifully were able to leave the field and hide out on the clubhouse.

    Well Dan, it’s the same old story line. Who is making the Astro personal decisions? I refuse to believe all of this drama has been created by loose lipped Dana Brown alone. He got Walker and Paredes and thought he could move on with his work to build a team for 2025 that would be in the hunt, but with a real eye on fresh funding for the 2026 team and beyond. Not so simple. That Bregman is still in the discussion after turning down at least one deal, and maybe two, seems a real folly. Are the Astros bidding against themselves for a guy that is in decline over 6 years and 156 or maybe 162 million or some like that? Gosh, I can think of all kinds of things to do with that money in the next couple of off seasons, as the club continues to get younger and more athletic.

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  2. Just waking up from the Super Bowl blow out. It was almost midnight here when the Chief’s mercifully were able to leave the field and hide out on the clubhouse.

    Well Dan, it’s the same old story line. Who is making the Astro personal decisions? I refuse to believe all of this drama has been created by loose lipped Dana Brown alone. He got Walker and Paredes and thought he could move on with his work to build a team for 2025 that would be in the hunt, but with a real eye on fresh funding for the 2026 team and beyond. Not so simple. That Bregman is still in the discussion after turning down at least one deal, and maybe two, seems a real folly. Are the Astros bidding against themselves for a guy that is in decline over 6 years and 156 or maybe 162 million or some like that? Gosh, I can think of all kinds of things to do with that money in the next couple of off seasons, as the club continues to get younger and more athletic.

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    • The Bregman situation continues to tell me that either Dana Brown isn’t in control or that he is an undiagnosed schizophrenic. They need to move on without him I think- it just does not make sense with the Walker and Paredes moves made. If you thought you were going to get Bregman back, you get the Cubs to send some OF help instead of a redundant corner infielder.

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  3. I do not think our outfield will be as terrible as we might be thinking right now. But my thoughts are as follows.

    1. Jake should only start against lefty pitching.
    2. Chas will regroup in 2025. I hope he shows up in really good shape.
    3. We should not expect too much from Gamel.
    4. We should expect nothing from Melton until he hits in AAA ball. Even when you look at his splits they are unremarkable. And his OBP in the minors just does not translate to MLB.
    5. Pedro Leon. No clue after his brief and seemingly confused debut last season.
    6. Zach Dezenzo will be heard from.
    7. Between Yordan and Jose, assuming he can play at least a reasonable left field, with parks chosen carefully, we could have the best LF offense in the league, depending of course on who else plays left. I’d still like to see a deal for Verdugo, but I still can’t figure out how much more might be spent.

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  4. I do not think our outfield will be as terrible as we might be thinking right now. But my thoughts are as follows.

    1. Jake should only start against lefty pitching.
    2. Chas will regroup in 2025. I hope he shows up in really good shape.
    3. We should not expect too much from Gamel.
    4. We should expect nothing from Melton until he hits in AAA ball. Even when you look at his splits they are unremarkable. And his OBP in the minors just does not translate to MLB.
    5. Pedro Leon. No clue after his brief and seemingly confused debut last season.
    6. Zach Dezenzo will be heard from.
    7. Between Yordan and Jose, assuming he can play at least a reasonable left field, with parks chosen carefully, we could have the best LF offense in the league, depending of course on who else plays left. I’d still like to see a deal for Verdugo, but I still can’t figure out how much more might be spent.

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    • Dan, maybe I should shut up. My two for one posts my wear some folks down. Or maybe this whole Bregman affair is keeping the regular’s from responding to your initial ST post. Steven, where is your head on all this stuff?

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  7. Pitcher at least did not have to pitch month 7 of a 6 month season. maybe that helps. I would like to see Hunter Brown become the ace in 2025 because they will probably let Framber walk after 2025.

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  10. Dave – sorry this thing has just not been cooperating with me. We’ll see if this post works!

    Alvarez and Altuve should be given the at bats they need to get their timing down, but limit the time they see the field in spring training. Obviously shagging flies in the OF is probably fine, but I don’t think anyone needs to be sprinting into corners and diving after balls. The rest should play it like they are preparing for the season.

    I don’t want to see Altuve moved around. Put him at 2B. Or put him in LF. Don’t tell me he is going to do both. Give the guy some consistency. You don’t tell an icon you are moving him because his defense is waning, then still play him 80 games at 2B, especially if its just to get Dubon in the lineup.

    The pitchers – our top 4 threw a combined 10,000 pitches + last year. 3 of the 4 set professional career high in pitches thrown. Those three should get their work in without going over board. Limiting pitch counts to 85-90 the first month, maybe even 80, if they are throwing strikes and getting through 5, should be considered. Every opportunity to keep their pitch count down, pull them after 6 if they are humming if they are blessed with a 3+ run lead.

    Crane is in charge. From there, its a question of who he listens to more.

    If it were my money, I would not sign Verdugo and stay under the cap this season. Get Abreu, Montero off the books. Pena and Paredes will have escalating salaries if they both just stay consistent. So will Bryan Abreu. Imagine Chas bouncing back and getting to 8 million next year in arbitration. Salary issues are not behind this team, it would really have helped if they would have approached Framber with a 3 or 4 year extension this offseason.

    The OF. If you bring in Verdugo you have a neat setup where you can put either two mediocre lefties in the corners or two mediocre righties in the corners, depending on your thoughts on Zach. One side of me looks at his bat-to-ball and thinks he can probably handle major league pitching enough to hit .260 or .270. The other side of me thinks even at that average he is a below league average OBP guy, or maybe he can play right at it, which might be fine if he hits 20 HR. Will he, I don’t know. I know this, he is a ton better a hitter than Melton or Leon so why he was never rated above those guys, who knows. I don’t think either one of those make any impact in 2025, if ever. However it shakes, we probably have the worst outfield of contenders.

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  11. Good evening Dan. Let’s fix this forum so that it works. Otherwise we will tend not to respond. Sorry, but that’s reality. You give us such a remarkable effort. Please don’t waste it.

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  13. I’m definitely having trouble commenting. Had about five attempts to reply to Dave, saying I like his double posts. Gives it emphasis!

    All I managed out of those attempts was that single ‘I’ that must’ve made me look stupid!

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  14. Fortunately I still have my old fashioned PC which doesn’t duplicate my old fashioned comments.

    Rendon looks like he’s, again, a goner for this year. So, the Angels are missing a third baseman. Bregman’s now-confirmed exit from Houston puts the Astros in a position where they will be under the 2025 luxury tax line and they will probably go with their current roster.

    If they are in the race at the deadline, they will probably keep Framber until he walks. If they aren’t in the race, they would probably make a trade to get some return. Either way, their path for 2025 became clearer and they will have a better idea where they stand with their current prospects, with their injured pitchers and with the guys they would get in the draft and through trades. They may have some money to spend in the offseason to make their lineup stronger for the future and to deepen their rotation.

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  15. I do think it is a bit of funny calling Bregman “slugger” – I mean he does hit a fair amount of home runs, but when you say slugger – I think of Yordan or Judge.

    Oh well

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    • Thank goodness for “small” favors. Maybe Bregman and Boris are happy now. It will be interesting to see how all of this turns out for our former third baseman. Now can we please get ourselves ready for Spring Training with no further distractions? (A little sarcasm there).

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    • MLBTR is reporting the deferred portion of the contract makes it more like 3 years, $90M of current money. If that’s the case Bregman is really losing out by turning down the Astros original offer. I don’t understand what the Red Sox gain out of this signing.

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  17. The Red Sox will pay him $40 million a year to play second base. He has totaled 32 innings at 2B in his entire career of college and professional baseball. He has made no appearances at 2B since 2018

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  18. Boras got him a good deal. He holds all the cards for the next three years. I do think Devers inability to play third base will eventually get Bregman back over there. Not all Boston fans are thrilled this morning. Alex is working for Alex again. That’s an interesting side note. If Alex B. gets off to his typical slow start, he’ll hear it in Boston. I’m pleased with our 26 million combination at first and third.

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  19. We won. I know the national media doesn’t see it that way, and agents go on about running from leadership. Whatever.

    Alex Bregman is going to make 40M a year. Yes, some of it is deferred. That doesn’t change the number. He will get 120M from this contract if he gets it now or later. He will probably hit .260, probably 25 HR, probably walk 60 times, and have an OBP around .330. For at least a 30M number on the cap.

    Isaac Paredes is projected by MARCELS to hit .243 with 24 HR and a .342 OBP. And he is younger, at an age where those numbers might still be better than projected, and will be playing 81 games this year in a park that is more friendly to him than the Trop or Wrigley. And the fact that he makes 6M and not 40M with at least a 30M cap hit – is why we were able to sign Walker and solve 1B.

    We won. Good luck to Alex Bregman. I hope he does well except when he plays us. I wouldn’t expect a warm welcome from the masses though on your return.

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    • Quite frankly, if Bregman does play well and earn every penny of this contract he could be helping the Astros far more than if he’d come back to Houston. Boston is going to play the Orioles and Yankees 13 times next season.

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