One problem with writing an opinion-based blog is that sometimes those opinions can be disproved within days or weeks.
Hunter Brown needs to be sent down for more seasoning. Hunter turns it around and becomes dominant.
Yusei Kikuchi cost too much in the trade and likely won’t pitch better than Jake Bloss. Yusei is almost spotless down the stretch and is one of the main reasons the team makes it into the playoffs.
These rumors about Alex Bregman returning to the Astros are silly from a team budget standpoint and the fact that there is no position left for him to play. Astros 2025: Silly season in full flow – ALL THINGS ASTROS In the last 24 hours, this thought process has been challenged big time.
The “news” that the Astros have resumed talks with Alex Bregman and that both parties are interested in a reunion are coming from multiple reliable sources, but are being led by longtime MLB columnist for USA Today Bob Nightingale, who has pointed out the interest and that if Bregman came back to the Astros, Isaac Paredes could move to 2nd base and one of the best offensive 2nd baseman in the game, Jose Altuve, could move to left field.
This leads to tons of thoughts and questions, which we will hit on here.
Reasons for the potential reunion
- The most cynical reason would be that the interest level in Bregman is not that high out there and agent Scott Boras might be using this to push some kind of bidding war over his client’s services.
- The most likely reason from the Bregman side is that yes, the interest out there is nowhere near the $200 million number they were hoping for and that 6 yr/$156 million first offer from the Astros looks pretty good in retrospect.
- From the Astros side – Even with Bregman’s early season struggles and some fall-off in walk rate in 2024, Bregman is still one of the best fielding / hitting third base combo in the majors coming off a Gold Glove season. He is the best Astros’ third baseman ever – period. He also seems to serve as an on-field pitching coach – helping his pitchers with pitch choices and adjustments.
How does that money work out?
- Though the Astros have reportedly not pulled their offer off the table, if they ended up giving Bregman that 6 yrs/ $156 Million contract (or something in that area) this would likely shove them into the second tier of the luxury tax for 2025. This move could be tied to them dumping Ryan Pressly’s $14 million contract to keep them in the first tier. But Pressly has a no trade clause that he would have to waive (likely for some teams and not others).
- If Bregman signs, the contract might not look like that at all. As others who have hit the free agent market and not found the money they were searching for, he might sign one of these high AAV contracts with an early opt out. 1 year $35 Million? 2 Year $70 Million?
- While the Astros might not like to be back in the same position next off-season with an opt out – the plus side would be that it might give them a chance to get Bryce Matthews or Cam Smith up to speed in the next season or two – and allow them to do a Jeremy Pena for Carlos Correa type trade off. This could allow them to more easily get back under the luxury tax line after 2025 with Bregman, Jose Aberu and Rafael Montero coming off the books.
- Thinking outside the box – could the Astros go longer term with Bregman but defer some or all of the money (shades of Shohei Ohtani). “Breggy, you can live off of those HEB commercials and all the salsa you can sell and then clean up when you reach retirement”.
How would this position switch work?
- This is of course the most intriguing part of the equation. Let’s take a quick look at how deep a potential lineup might look.
LF Jose Altuve
3B Alex Bregman
2B Isaac Paredes
SS Jeremy Pena
CF Mauricio Dubon / Jake Meyers
That’s darned good, especially if Chas comes back a bit more like 2023 Chas.
- One of the things that this could bring is an Altuve/Alvarez trade-off between LF and DH. Maybe Yordan plays 50 games in LF and the veteran Altuve would get those DH days as semi-rest. Altuve had very good stats as a DH in 2024.
- Of course, the Astros did this with a former 2B Craig Biggio who ended up in the OF in his later career, though he had played it a few times before ending up out there.
- The biggest question would be could Altuve do a decent job out there. He certainly has the sprint speed to track down fly balls. The bigger question might be his noodle arm – which sure does not look powerful at second base. The Astros have had Jake (Noodle Arm) Meyers in CF the last few years. Of course, we might be cringing as the 5’6” (at most) All Star does not quite reach line drives in the gap.
- Likely Altuve offered this switch to the team in order to give them options in looking at this trade. No one was more outspoken about trying to get Bregman back than Altuve this off-season.
- The obvious question is – why not make Paredes learn the outfield rather than Altuve? This would allow to Altuve to stay at 2nd – Bregman to play 3rd and only have the new guy to learn a new position.
- But…perhaps they have noticed that Altuve’s fielding numbers are on the downswing and think that the overall affect of Altuve at LF and Paredes at 2B is better than the other way around.
- The other choice would be to trade Paredes – perhaps for an OF. There is some thought that they might package him with Pressly, but since the main player for Pressly is the Cubs (where Paredes came from) that does not make much sense.
As always, this is a fascinating, maybe unprecedented situation for the Astros. The fans seemed to have moved on from Bregman, but the team apparently has not.
ALL THINGS ASTROS 
29 responses to “Astros 2025: Breggy egg on my face?”
I think the Astros dodged a bullet when they moved on from Alex Bregman, seemingly avoiding a 6 year 156 million contract for a guy that I’m convinced is declining. And based on him still being unsigned today, other clubs must feel the same way. Dana Brown did a heck of a job filling both corner infield roles for what Bregman alone would have cost. We’ll see more production. We’ll see great defense at first and serviceable defense at third from a 25 year old guy who might still be getting better.
And as a card carrying cynic, Boras putting a new spin on this process would not surprise me in any way. But just as realistic would be Crane listening to guys like Altuve, Bagwell, Espada, and any number of others that still want to see Bregman on the team.
I keep going back to whether or not Dana Brown owns his job. Just when I think he’s finally getting the freedom to make this team his own, something like this pops up and I get dubious again. And as for Joe Espada, his most recent remarks, to my recollection anyway, never made mention of his GM working hard to make the Astros roster the best possible. If the manager finds it necessary to be quoted, that’s the kind of stuff he should be saying.
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Speaking of Boras – I wonder who would know/release this information…
Report: Alex Bregman Has Received Multiple Offers Of At Least Five Years – MLB Trade Rumors
And wondering if any of the three are still offering that or have moved on
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Trying to drop that mlbtraderumors.com link but can’t
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Would a guy like Bob Nightingale get tidbits from Boras? Of course. So would many others.
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Things I think about this conversation:
All money being equal, Bregman would prefer staying in Houston than the other cities mentioned.
I said here, that after the acquisition of Paredes and Walker, there was still room for Bregman on the Astros and found no agreement from anyone. The deal, I said, would involve a lot of salary manipulation including signing bonus, deferrals and compromises to keep the 2025 expenditures down and make it up on the back end, where there was more room because of rising luxury tax levels and adding top prospects to the roster to replace higher salaried veterans in the late 2020’s.
My plan was to use Paredes as a part time 2B while rotating the use of Yordan, Altuve and Paredes at DH and letting Paredes make occasional starts at 3B and 1B also when Bregman and Walker needed days off. I will admit I didn’t see Altuve in LF, but he is an athlete and if he has said he would do it as a way to keep Bregman, I see it as an offer to do his part to make that happen.
Paredes is probably a better fielder at 2B than Altuve and Bregman is probably a better fielder at 3B than Paredes. Yordan is a better DH than anyone and Altuve would probably be a more mobile fielder in LF than Yordan.
The move makes the Astros lineup more RH heavy, but it is a better lineup in total. An outfield of Altuve, Meyers and Chas would also get the latter two at the bottom of the lineup while giving Smith, Melton and Matthews a good chance in Sugarland to show which ones are there for 2026 and beyond.
To be able to afford this move in 2025, you would probably need to trade Pressly, Framber and one of Chas or Dubon. Do not trade a switch hitting backup catcher. He is too valuable this year and has one year left only anyway. Make sure the Framber and Pressly trades bring back young pitchers nearly MLB ready
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I try and figure out what happened to Alex Bregman that saw his walk percentage drop like an anchor. His swing percentages look a little bit like a guy whose eyes are slowing. He is swinging at pitches outside the zone a bit more, but more telling is the fact that he is swinging at pitches inside the zone a lot more, roughly 10% more. You couple that with drop in hard hit%, and it seems he was either just being more aggressive in a contract year, or he is guessing more and out front of things, and not waiting on the pitch and barreling it up.
If Bregman does end up back here, batting him 2nd is probably not whats best for the team at this point. I think giving him 6/156 would be a mistake, but it’s not my money. The fact that they tried to move on Arenado, which is in even steeper decline than Alex, makes me wonder about their judgment. Bregman and Boras don’t seem to open to a shorter deal, like Boras seems to be for Alonzo, because I think they realize also that there is a decline, and if it goes anymore, he won’t make 156M more in his career. He is looking to cash in on past performance, but the Astros would be better off remembering past results do not promise future results.
If he does end up back, of course I’m rooting for him. I think he made a mistake when he didn’t accept 6/156. Doesn’t seem anyone else is offering it at this point or he would probably take it. I think the Astros are fine moving on. This seems more like smoke from media blowing out of proportion comments made by team management that is supportive of Alex, because what are they supposed to say? We think he is washed up? Of course he is going to say that, just like he said “we are talking to Justin’s agent, of course we are open to a return.” And that was Cranes golf buddy.
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Great to hear from you Steven – I think you have been out of the loop a bit.
Good points always – not sure what is the optimum lineup – I’m sure whatever they use will not be it lol
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I am optimistic about this season without Bregman. At some point, one of the kids is going to make a significant impact in the outfield.
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Thanks Dan! Busy last few weeks. I have been reading though, just never enough time to sit and share thoughts. Getting some things back to normal, and then snow came to the south. Felt like I was back in Alaska.
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Zach Dezenzo.
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I’ve closed the book on Bregman. If he really wanted to stay he would have accepted the original offer. Since he’s not getting what he wanted on the open market he or Boris thinks I can always go back to the Astros. As the terminator once said, “Hasta la vista baby”!
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I hope the book is closed on Alex.
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File this under the title” Things we weren’t told”: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/yordan-alvarez-discusses-late-season-knee-injury-good-to-go-for-spring-training.html
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Yeah – when it comes to injuries with the Astros – we are kept in the dark “for our own good”
it makes you wonder really how long Yordan was hurting – remember that long streak with no home runs?
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This morning Joe Espada says he is still optimistic that Bregman will be coming back to the Astros.
And also this morning Dana Brown says the door is open a crack but it would still be a very long shot.
This stuff reminds me of Dusty Baker bypassing his GM.
I don’t like these dynamics. And that’s why I’m thinking Espada might well be a weasel.
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McTaggart and Rome writing that Dana Brown has mentioned that McCullers and Garcia will NOT be ready by opening day.
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I have been a Bregman fan since his college days at LSU, but practically in the Astros situation, I feel that this tease that he might return is not in their best interest. If they can find room for a left handed batter in the outfield that can hit over .240, I think we will be better off. If not, shuffle some of these AAA, AA outfielders and see what we got. After this season, these contracts will go off the board that the owner and Bagwell got the club into .
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Larry, I’m glad the club is concerned about paying CBT. And I’d sure like to move ahead without an additional 6/156. We’ve got some young talent that should be able to contribute this year and going forward. And being well under the tax will give us a heck of a lot of options next year, especially as we finish up paying the existing dead salaries.
If Pressly is ok with leaving now, then I’m good with that too. We might get that left-handed bat for the outfield as a result.
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In “dog bites man” news – Dana Brown announces that neither Luis Garcia nor Lance McCullers Jr will be ready to start the season
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Dan, no surprise there. It makes the Tucker deal look more solid today. Paredes for third base and Wesneski at the back end of the rotation. I wish Dana Brown would be left alone to build his club. I can almost guarantee that he’s not begging Bregman to come back.
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Will we replace one bad contract with another? I hope not. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/01/cubs-to-acquire-ryan-pressly.html
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Maybe now they re-sign Breggy (bad contract) or they sign someone an OF or a cheaper reliever.
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Am seeing the name Juan Bello, a 20 year old that had a pretty good year in A ball as part of a deal that is mostly an unloading of Pressly’s salary. Of course I’m hoping the intent is to use the money for a Verdugo (or other lefty bat) for the outfield signing but it seems most are thinking this deal will help bring Bregman back.
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Please, please, no on Bregman! But then again I’m not the GM or those making decisions that shouldn’t be. I believe that the 36.5MM that will come off the books after this year (Abreu, Montero, Pressley) could be better spent. And there’s still the issue on what we’ll do with Valdez. But then again Javier (21.4) and Yordan (26.8) get substantial raises in 2026 so that will eat up some of that money.
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I’m sorry to see Pressly go, but also not sorry. I really liked him closing games, but never liked him in the setup role. That obviously wasn’t an option and paying him closer money to be not as good in earlier innings didn’t make sense. I hope he closes 40+ games for the Cubs and makes sure they bury the Cardinals in the standings.
Regarding Alvarez, I see people making comments that they should make him a full time LF since his numbers are better there than at DH. I think that discounts the fact the team rarely sends him out to LF when his legs have been questionable. I’m not surprised by his comments about the knee. When they were talking about him being questionable for the WC series you knew it was more than soreness.
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Shout out to the crawfish boxes for linking to us today
Astros Crawfish Boil: January 27, 2025 – The Crawfish Boxes
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ok here’s my 2025 WS Gm 7 prediction ….
tied at 3 games apiece the Cubs and Astros are locked in a tight game 7
Josh Hader blows the save with a 2 run HR to Kyle Tucker and then Presley comes on and saves the game for the Cubs
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My solution to that scenario is an intentional walk to Tucker and then Hader strikes out the next batter and the Astros are the World Series champs again!
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ah yes a much more satisfactory outcome !
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