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Astros 2025 – A Quick View of the First Base Position

In one swift signing, the Astro’s worse hitting position in the field (I’m doing the sign of the cross and a rosary on this one) may become one of their most solid spots in the lineup. The Astros used nine different players at first base in 2024, but this was basically the end of the career disaster that was Jose Abreu, followed by the better but still below-average hitting of Jon Singleton. The pickup of Christian Walker must improve this position significantly, or it could be a fatal mistake for this front office.

2024 By the Numbers

The Astros first base spot (stats are combined) ranked near the bottom in most offensive categories:

  • .226 BA (12th in the AL)
  • .291 OBP (13th)
  • .651 OPS (13th)
  • 23 doubles (T-12th)
  • 18 HR (11th)
  • 68 RBIs (12th)

From the fielding side, Abreu’s fielding had bottomed out alongside his hitting. Singleton was below average – he had the 4th most errors in 2024 even with only playing in 94 games at first base. His fielding runs above average was a -14 for the season – meaning he allowed 14 more runs than the average fielder.

On the other hand, Walker is the reigning NL three-time Gold Glove winner. Enough said.

Looking at the numbers put up by all three in 2024.

Stat Christian Walker Jon Singleton Jose Abreu
BA .251 .234 .124
OBP .335 .321 .167
OPS .803 .707 .361
Runs 72 46 10
Doubles 26 13 2
HRs 26 13 2
RBIs 84 42 7

Walker’s numbers are even more impressive if you consider he missed a whole month with an oblique injury. His numbers the last three seasons have been very steady with a .250 BA/ .332 OBP/ .813 OPS and an average of 32 HRs and 94 RBIs.

Leftovers

There are four players beyond Singleton, who played first base in 2024 that are still around for 2025. Catchers Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini played a combined 22 games at first in 2024 with varying effectiveness. Caratini looked a lot more comfortable at first than Diaz. Mauricio Dubon played in 9 games at first base, but he is currently being counted on as the starting left fielder, plus being the backup at all the other infield positions. Dubon, while a good glove at first base is also smaller than the normal target at first. Zach Dezenzo in his 17 games with the big club played 14 of them at first base.  

Another Major League Possibility

This is likely an option the Astros would not use except in an emergency, but newly acquired infielder Isaac Paredes has played at first base in 71 games (only 40 starts) in the MLB. Paredes will likely have his hands full taking Alex Bregman’s spot at 3rd base.

Top Prospects

The Astros top 30 prospect list contains no one who is listed as a first baseman. Shay Whitcomb (#15) played 6 games at 1B last season for the Space Cowboys. Big Whoop. Pascanel Ferrares (#26) played 3 games at 1B in 2023 at A ball. Smaller Whoop.

2024 AAA – Apparently, first base is where most of the Astro prospects go to see their Astros’ career die. In 2024 the players at Sugar Land who played the most 1B were:

Not much exploding potential from that bunch.

2024 AA

Looking at the Hooks….

  • Jordan Brewer played 84 games at first base. But 26 year olds hitting .224 at AA ball are closer to heading out than up.
  • Collin Price (who we discussed in the catcher review) also played 24 games at 1B and is a similar story as a 25 year old hitting .222 at AA.
  • I would discuss options past this point, but I am getting a bit depressed.

The bottom line at first base is that we sure hope that Christian Walker in 2025-2027 is basically the Christian Walker of 2022-2024, because a repeat of the Abreu performance would put us on suicide watch.

The bigger question is who will be his backup? The Astros could part ways with Jon Singleton and utilize Caratinti and/or Diaz along with Dezenzo to backup Walker.

But the better bet is that Singleton will still be around in 2025. Why? Quite a few reasons, some better than others.

  • He is an actual first baseman in background.
  • He is cheap – not arb eligible until 2026 (how many guys who debuted in 2014 can say that?)
  • With a right-handed heavy lineup that just shipped Kyle Tucker to Chicago, he is one of the few left handed bats around.
  • When actually used against right handed pitching he was good (.258 BA/ .350 OBP/ .773 OPS in 2024).
  • He is one of the few patient bats the Astros have. His 11.6% walk rate was only surpassed by Kyle Tucker, Ben Gamel and Grae Kessinger from the 2024 team, none of which are returning at this point.

First base was an overall a negative in 2024, but should be expected to be a positive in 2025. Knock on wood, fingers crossed and all that….

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8 responses to “Astros 2025 – A Quick View of the First Base Position”

  1. Good last morning of the year everyone. My hope is that Christian Walker players 150 games at first base. I also hope that Jose Altuve gets some starts at DH while Yordan stays familiar with left field, at least in his home park. I forget the new name for the place. Clearly with Frenchie playing second and Walker at first, we suddenly turn into an excellent, rangy right side of the infield. Might be good to see against a team with a batch of left-handed bats.

    Is there enough work for Singleton on the 26 man roster at this point? Not at first. Not at DH. Not to PH. If he keeps a job, it will only be because we have so few left-handed bats? Is that a good enough reason?

    We might have a lot of platooning going on in the outfield, which could mean there won’t be the luxury of having a back up at first, especially with Caratini and (presumably) Dezenzo around.

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  2. The Astros just gave a guy that will turn 34 just before the season opens 60 million dollars.

    Keith Law in 2023 after Abreu was signed – “I’m not arguing that Abreu was less than elite last year, because that’s beside the point. The Astros aren’t buying Abreu’s 2022 performance. They’re buying his 2023-2025 performances, and those are extremely likely to be worse, starting in year one and declining sharply from there…..n 2022, his production changed, and it’s something we’ve seen before. He lost some bat speed and started to struggle on four-seamers for the first time in his career. His contact quality went down on four-seamers, and the harder the pitch, the more likely he was to whiff.”

    A lot of interesting things wrote about Abreu right after his release at the Orange Fire substack. https://orangefire.substack.com/p/7-observations-about-the-release great article about biting that bullet. It was obvious very few people saw it coming. Law had an idea, but there really wasn’t a pattern. There was a slight, very slight, fall off in his pull percentage in 2022, mostly related to a bit more extreme fall off in his Aug/Sept pull percentages. His hard hit percentage was down, but not something that was drastic. There were critics of it being a 3 year deal, but overall, no one thought he was washed up in 2023.

    Fortunately, we don’t hear any of the same stuff out there about Walker. Even Law has been fairly mum but had said a lot of good things about Walker before the signing. Good news I guess. I know this – the ISO was lower than the last few years, the HR % slightly down, the SO rate slightly up. Those trends matched Abreu, though Abreu’s HR% and ISO were more than slightly down. But Walker’s hard hit% looked good, he is still pulling the ball at plus 30% and he hit less to RF last year than any year in his career. So either he is still seeing it well or he is a doing a good job of scouting and knowing what they are going to throw him – something Abreu just could never get too. So, I’m optimistic this won’t turn into that, though I would suspect that 3rd year will be one that is a little dicey.

    I did a write up on Singleton sometime in August that was showing his stats after a second consecutive start and third consecutive start. When the guy was allowed to play and get into a rhythm he was much better, almost acceptable at his salary level. That won’t be the case anymore. Considering the Astros are going to want Yordan at DH as much as possible, Diaz at DH when he isn’t catching as much as possible, and probably trying to give Altuve 10-15 DH days this year – when is Jon getting in there? Lefty or not, his career numbers as a spot player and pinch hitter are both really bad even on the Singleton scale. They should probably move on and bring in another athlete that can field more than 1 position, pinch run, defensive sub kind of guy.

    The Astros at most levels have kind of hodge podged first. The depth at the ML level seems good with a presumed 150 game starter, Dezenzo, Dubon, Diaz and Caratini all capable of stepping in for spurts if Walker twists an ankle. I expect, because of other options at catcher that guys like little brother Correa and Palma could start seeing time at 1B. One guy I’ve wanted to keep an eye is Will Bush, who will probably be pushed to 1B by Janek at least until Janek ends up at AA. He is a guy that hasn’t hit a lot, but is only 20 and is already on the harder side to strike out, and takes a few walks. Both have room for improvement and at his age he has years left in the system, but I’ll keep an eye on him.

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  3. First of all, I suspect that Jose Abreu was a few years older than was stated and that Christian Walker’s age is correct.

    Walker has won three Gold Gloves in a row and that is not guessing. He will be a lot better defensively.

    Singleton can’t hit lefties, isn’t good defensively, and has no options left. He seems like an old bubble guy whose time might have passed.

    There has to be someone better either here or out there to back up Walker.

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  5. Spencer is a smart guy. If he ends up being very successful pitching in the majors, it will be for that reason. I just wish he’d cut his hair shorter. He spends too much time pushing it back and getting it out of his face. One less frivolous issue to be concerned about.

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